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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/scottish-independence-yes-vote-turnout-polls
     
     

    Something incredible is happening in Scotland. And if the result is a yes vote the shock to the UK will be extreme

     

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    Yes this is quite worrying. They are trying to encourage far right groups to get violent.

     

    'Absolute carnage'. Lovely.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

     

     

    yeah because there are too many idiots out there trying to make out we are ripping apart Britain and the UK when they should try and understand Scotland first before making absurd claims because all they are doing is fuelling sectarianism through sheer stupidity.

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    Whatever you like, I guess. I suppose it might help voters in Scotland realise that a YES vote would have a massive impact of many people from the other countries in the UK, and that it would leave many people really very sad, even bereft.

     

    That, of course, won't change people's decision, but I sometimes feel that some folk in Scotland are under the impression that people from England, Wales, or NI couldn't care less what the result is and are viewing it as some sort of game or simply wanting to keep Scotland under control. In fact, for many of us I think it is just that we see the whole of the UK as the country we are from and don't want to lose our country as we know and love it. That's all.

    This. :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    you do understand that the UK isn't a country but a political union

    No, the UK is a country/sovereign state (the 2 terms can be used interchangeably), made up of constituent countries.

    It is perfectly acceptable to refer to the UK as a country.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Whatever you like, I guess. I suppose it might help voters in Scotland realise that a YES vote would have a massive impact of many people from the other countries in the UK, and that it would leave many people really very sad, even bereft.

     

    As I said in my last post, I do understand the emotional bit quite well. I just need to flip my own sentiments in reverse.

     

    I'm not sure a the 'massive impact' though other than emotional?

     

    All in reality that will happen is Scotland's taxes will go direct to Holyrood; hardly different to Devo Max. Other than that, not much will change. Daily life in the rUK certainly will be largely the same.

     

    If you drive up to an iScotland, it will look exactly the same as now, bar the few union flags that still fly on government buildings having gone. 

     

    Scotland and the rUK have diverged politically. When that happens, a clash is inevitable. That's what's happening now. The best result in such situations is that it does not drag on; that only makes things worse.

     

    If it's a Yes the main emotion I will feel is a huge sense of relief. I've lived in a country in a state of constitutional crisis for 37 years. Only a brief break of sorts early in devolution.

     

    I was born into a Scotland just about to be denied democracy in the overruled 1979 referendum and the deep anger that created. I lived through the miners strikes, mass unemployment/ravages of the thatcher years. I watched the poll tax protests. Then we had the long fight of the constitutional convention. 1992 - a very dark year for my country. Then 1997 brought hope before New Labour and the Iraq war. In 2007 I lost all faith in UK parties. 

     

    I'd just like normality and 37 years has taught me that is impossible under Westminster rule.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    As I said in my last post, I do understand the emotional bit quite well. I just need to flip my own sentiments in reverse.

     

    I'm not sure a the 'massive impact' though other than emotional?

     

    All in reality that will happen is Scotland's taxes will go direct to Holyrood; hardly different to Devo Max. Other than that, not much will change. Daily life in the rUK certainly will be largely the same.

     

    If you drive up to an iScotland, it will look exactly the same as now, bar the few union flags that still fly on government buildings having gone. 

     

    Scotland and the rUK have diverged politically. When that happens, a clash is inevitable. That's what's happening now. The best result in such situations is that it does not drag on; that only makes things worse.

     

    If it's a Yes the main emotion I will feel is a huge sense of relief. I've lived in a country in a state of constitutional crisis for 37 years. Only brief break of sorts early in devolution. I'd just like normality and 37 years has taught me that is impossible under Westminster rule.

    I do know what you mean :-).

    I think Nick's main point though (which I support), is that a lot of us in Northern England, who were given the boot by Thatcher just like you guys, feel like they have a strong affinity for the socially democratic attitudes that prevail in Scotland. A lot of people in Northern England also frequently get a Tory Government that they didn't vote for.

    I too see myself as British first, English second. I spent 5 years in Edinburgh. I'm proud to be from Manchester (yes, really). But England as a "nation" genuinely doesn't generate a feeling of warmth and belonging. I feel as though Glasgow has much more in common with my outlook than the quissentially "English" Home Counties. Kent and deepest Surrey feel more far removed than Glasgow that's for sure.

    I do wish Westminster could have been more proactive in sorting out a "Devo max" or federal solution, or we wouldn't necessarily be where we are now. It's all very well saying that this gives England the chance to pull together and sort itself out... Well that will be quite difficult considering that Northern Ireland is a massive question mark, not to mention Wales. It's going to be a massive mess. For decades.

    Anyway all of this is completely irrelevant - we are where we are - and I do now think Scotland is going to vote to leave the UK.

    Please excuse me though for not celebrating, as I just find the whole thing incredibly sad. I'm not going to feel guilty for that, or for having an opinion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL
  • Location: Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

    Also, whether you plan to vote yes or no, surely we can all agree that this man is talking utter pish.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/09/01/alan-cumming-the-campaign-for-scottish-independence-is-just-like-the-battle-for-lgbt-equality/

    Perspective, perspective.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I can understand that sentiment Joe (not the LGTB but your previous post).

     

    I'm no expert on the politics of England, but the North/South division has hardly gone unnoticed to me.

     

    Scotland is where it is - potentially about to take control of it's own destiny - through a very long, hard struggle with a much larger political force. 

     

    If you want change, you need to fight for it I guess is the message. Scotland has been doing that since 1949 and the constitutional covenant calling for a Scottish parliament.

     

    In terms of Tory rule etc; Scotland no longer being in the UK will not effect the outcome of UK general elections. Scotland has only altered the outcome for ~2 years out of the last 67.

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland/

     

    So Scotland won't be 'leaving the North of England and Wales at the mercy of perpetual Tory rule'. Electorally, nothing will change. 9% of MPS largely split between the main three could never hope to have any impact.

     

    What a benefit of an iScotland would be, aside from 'breaking the system and showing the rUK an alternative', is that it would partially address the London centric nature of the UK economy. That can only benefit the North of England if Scotland is forming a new economic centre just next to it.

     

    Or you could move up. Plenty already have.

     

    Anyway, we are still talking hypothetically as we've not had our vote yet!

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    I do wish Westminster could have been more proactive in sorting out a "Devo max" or federal solution, or we wouldn't necessarily be where we are now. It's all very well saying that this gives England the chance to pull together and sort itself out... Well that will be quite difficult considering that Northern Ireland is a massive question mark, not to mention Wales. It's going to be a massive mess. For decades.

    I think that in a nut-shell is why federalism is a dead horse. There is nothing approaching a collective view on England's future in such a settlement in anyway comparable with the situation of the Scottish Constitutional Convention which had widespread support across political parties and across Scotland geographically, every single council area voted yes for the Scottish Parliament as outlined by the Convention in the 97 referendum.

    Full Fiscal autonomy through asymmetrical devolution doesn't seem like a sustainable long term solution either, we are where we are for many reasons, part of it is the fact that the UK is an incoherent mess in constitutional terms and it's suited Westminster to just keep muddling along in that regard. Also from the Scottish perspective Westminster has never really grasped the full implications of the Treaty of Union and the fact that UK isn't and never has been a genuine unitary state.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

     

    Good on you Police...

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/bringing-the-smackdown/

     

    To: News Editor
    Date: 1 September 2014
    Subject: Independence Referendum
     
    In response to the suggestion of absolute carnage in and around polling stations on the 18th Sept Brian Docherty, Chairman of the Scottish Police Federation said;
     
    ‘The independence debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured and it would prove a disservice to those who have participated in it thus far to suggest that with 17 days to go, Scotland is about to disintegrate into absolute carnage on the back of making the most important decision in the country’s history.
     
    Politicians and supporters of whichever point of view need to be mindful of the potential impact of intemperate, inflammatory and exaggerated language, lest they be seen to seek to create a self fulfilling prophecy‘
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Would think the last paragraph is directed at a certain Labour MP who is about to kick off his shouty in the street tour again tomorrow..

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    Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

    Also, whether you plan to vote yes or no, surely we can all agree that this man is talking utter pish.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/09/01/alan-cumming-the-campaign-for-scottish-independence-is-just-like-the-battle-for-lgbt-equality/

    Perspective, perspective.

    no we cannot all agree..stopping discrimination against gays is more important.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

    no we cannot all agree..stopping discrimination against gays is more important.

    I don't follow. Joe wasn't saying anything to diminish the fight against discrimination against gay people. The point is that the attempt to equate the LGBT fight with that for Scottish independence is complete nonsense.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    We have a Poll...

     

    Hints of an imminent YouGov poll via The Sun's Chief political correspondent.

    post-7292-0-99632400-1409600627_thumb.pn

     

    Previous poll on 18 August

    post-7292-0-36446700-1409600630_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    We have a Poll...

     

    Hints of an imminent YouGov poll via The Sun's Chief political correspondent.

    attachicon.gifCapture.PNG

     

    Previous poll on 18 August

    attachicon.gifYou Gov 18 August.PNG

     

    BT's favourite pollster and historically a wild outlier at odds with the other online pollsters, in part due to the affront to quasi-random sampling that is the 'Kellner correction'.

     

    Any gap closure there would be very good for Yes.

     

    Apparently Nick Robinson said this:

     

    Interviewing @AlexSalmond in the morning at a distillery. He'll be smiling & may even raise a glass when he sees latest YouGov poll

     

    Brian's blog this:

     

    Still with psephology, there's talk of a new poll on Tuesday which may well suggest a further narrowing of the lead for "No".

     

    No seeing any customery 'Looking forward to tonight's poll' from Blair McDougall.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I think it might even show a lead for YES. Just a hunch.

     

    I doubt that. Not from Yougov and if we were in a 2011 type repeat, not yet. In 2011, 80% of the SNP's final lead came in the last 14 days in polls.

     

    I'd love it, but hey...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

    We have a Poll...

     

    Hints of an imminent YouGov poll via The Sun's Chief political correspondent.

    attachicon.gifCapture.PNG

     

    Previous poll on 18 August

    attachicon.gifYou Gov 18 August.PNG

    I believe it will show something like 47% yes - 53% no when excluding DKs

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    My initial thoughts were that this would show no change, or perhaps a 1% drop for Y with 1% increase to N based on recent Survation result given the information you have posted around You Gov. (SS)

     

    If that quote from Nick Robinson is accurate then I reckon we are approaching the realms of 50:50 which in itself is a monumental shift in a period of only 15 days..

     

                                 Survey End Date       Yes    No        Wouldn’t vote    D/K    Yes Lead  

    Survation/Daily Mail  28/08/14                   42     48          n/a                  11        -6

    YouGov/Times (3)    15/08/14                   38     51           2                     9        -13

    Edited by lorenzo
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Rumours 47 YES 53 NO

     

    Aye, spotted that too. Must be with DK's excluded.

     

    If true, it would be 47(+4)% / 53(-4)% in just over 2 weeks.

     

    47(+8 )% / 53(-8 )% since 7th August. A 16 point gap closure.

     

    That would be nuts.

     

    EDIT 7th August. 8% swing in ~3 weeks.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    No, the UK is a country/sovereign state (the 2 terms can be used interchangeably), made up of constituent countries.

    It is perfectly acceptable to refer to the UK as a country.

     

     

    the united kingdom or UK was only brought around by the political union of separate countries therefore it isn't a country it is nothing but a political union holding 4 countries within it one of those countries withdrawing from the union isn't breaking up a country it is splitting the political union we have been and always will be separate countries we were only bound by a political state and we a Scottish citizens aren't voting to break up a country but to leave the union and have our own country stand on its own political feet we will still be part of Britain with an open border we just want our country run for us by the people who know us this notion we are breaking up a country is just delusional.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    From George Eaton, political editor of the New Statesman. Confirms the 47 - 53 mentioned above.

    post-7292-0-46950800-1409602774_thumb.pn

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