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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I'm surprised the BBC even ran this story, even with its negative headline.

    I thought that we had already covered this?

    BBC would describe the above employment rate chart as 'Scotland has the third lowest rate of employment in the UK at present' :whistling:

    And we have covered it. BB's only got 2 one line arguments which he switches between each time.

    It's not his fault, it's in the Tory Unionst handbook (Chapter 24, Section 06, clause 1314 - Rebellious Scots). Kinda cute really. Bless him http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    Edited by scottish skier
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    And we have covered it. BB's only got 2 one line arguments which he switches between each time.

    Good morning!

    That's because they're the most relevant to this debate, so no need to say much else!:rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    A lot of taxes required to support your Cuban-Style Welfare State!http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    You're absolutely right, a lot of taxes are required to support our welfare system - but then of course we do raise a lot of tax revenue is Scotland, more so than is required to sustain it. It's simply a case of a fairly wealthy country spending money on what we see as important parts of our society. Free education should be celebrate, not condemned. I think it's disgusting what the Con-Dem coalition is sneekily doing the English NHS and I wouldn't stand for it if I was you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    You're absolutely right, a lot of taxes are required to support our welfare system - but then of course we do raise a lot of tax revenue is Scotland, more so than is required to sustain it. It's simply a case of a fairly wealthy country spending money on what we see as important parts of our society. Free education should be celebrate, not condemned. I think it's disgusting what the Con-Dem coalition is sneekily doing the English NHS and I wouldn't stand for it if I was you.

    I've been hearing this for many years, thru' successive Westminster govts of all colours, about short-changing the NHS - trouble is the vast majority of the UK electorate don't really understand some of the alternative solutions put forward (and nor do I) WHY?

    - basically, as soon as any UK politician dare mention reforms/changes to the NHS, the Left cry "Foul" and any changes, whether good or bad, get lost in the fog of non-debate and emotion.

    The NHS is a good example, where true, open, honest debate is stifled in this country because it's so 'precious' - but if one takes a logical view that something that was set up 60+ years ago really should be looked at to see if the original model is still working properly, then why not?

    I'm afraid it's the one big institution in this country that's become a political football- and in the meantime it just rolls on from one crisis to another.

    It probably does need reform -

    i've seen 2 sides of its effectiveness in the last few years - care of the newborn is superb, sometimes 2 midwives for every birth, BUT care of the elderly and infirm is not so good. Those 2 examples says to me that a serious reform needs to take place. I do not know the answers myself, but i'm not afraid for the debate to take place, and if solutions are proposed, then let's put them into action, instead of hiding behind the emotion that attaches itself to the NHS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Good morning!

    That's because they're the most relevant to this debate, so no need to say much else!:rolleyes:

    LOL. Good old BB.

    As for the NHS - best discussed in the NHS thread. In terms of the Scots, it's entirely up to them how they want to run it.

    I'm up for reform, but am always caught when the private sector and 'profits' become associated with 'care'. It makes me too uncomfortable; i.e. seeking to profit out of people's pain.

    But that's another story...

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    "The government’s tax hit on oil producers may boost Scots nationalists"

    "an executive at a smaller oil firm grumbles that Britain’s tax regime has become less stable than Nigeria’s"

    http://www.economist.com/node/18744139

    My oil co sponor reps have been saying the same - an independent Scotland looks enticing for them; lower, simpler taxes and more stability.

    Also:

    "Report triggers new row over who owns Scottish seabed"

    "For decades, the Crown Estate Commissioners (CEC) have claimed ownership to Scotland’s seabed, yet in evidence to the Commons Treasury Committee they admit they do not actually own anything. They only manage the Crown property rights in Scotland. But the committee makes clear Holyrood can already legislate over these rights, and one of the leading authorities on Scottish land is calling for MSPs to use the powers they already have to abolish the Crown rights to the seabed. The findings could herald a multimillion-pound windfall for the Scottish Government and local councils."

    http://www.offshorew...cottish-seabed/

    EDIT2:

    And a suprisingly good article from the generally conservative/unionist Scotsman:

    http://www.scotsman.com/opinion/Gerry-Hassan-We-need-to.6775745.jp?articlepage=1

    "....That leaves England having to confront its own doubts and fears, its post-imperial illusions and its place in the UK and wider world.

    We owe it our friends in the south to help them through these tough and unpredictable times. Abandoning England to the Rupert Murdoch-City of London right-wing fantasists won't help any of us on these isles, and as the Scots, along with the Welsh and Northern Irish, increasingly develop their distinct political spaces, they should encourage the English to begin their own journey. It would be even more helpful if the English voices that emerged weren't as irate and bad-tempered as Lott and Letts, but came from the best of England, the land of liberty, dissent and radicalism, which we know still exists."

    :good:

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Scotland looking not too bad in the latest employment figures:

    Unemployed:

    England 7.8%

    Scotland 7.7%

    Wales 7.7%

    NI 7.2%

    Economically active:

    Wales 77.4%

    Scotland 77.3%

    England 77.0

    NI 72.2%

    Scotland's growth slightly better at 0.8% than the UK average of 0.5% for the first quarter of 2011.

    Source: ONS & Scottish Government.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Apropos nothing at all really but I'm surprised that nobody has quoted Voltaire.

    "It is to Scotland that we look for our idea of civilisation"

    On the other hand Dr. Johnson to Boswell.

    "The climate of Edinburgh is such that the weak succumb young........and the strong envy them".

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    "The climate of Edinburgh is such that the weak succumb young........and the strong envy them".

    Tell me about it. Peeing rain and 15 C at best today.

    Oh wait a minute. Think it's stopped :mellow:

    Nah. False alarm. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    "SNP momentum continues with by-election results"

    "An analysis of the by-elections which have taken place in Falkirk, Aberdeen and Highland Local Authorities show huge swings of 8.4% from Labour, 8.1 from the Conservatives and an astonishing 10.10% from the Liberal Democrats."

    http://www.newsnetsc...on-results.html

    Inverclyde by-election for Westminster set for 30th June. Likely swing from Labour to SNP as voters know a vote for Labour will make zero impact on current Condem government.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    http://www.newsnetscotland.com/scottish-news/2702-independence-referendum.html

    Scots referendum Yes 'ten times more likely to succeed'

    Of the 46 referendums held worldwide since 1905, 42 have resulted in a new independent country being formed – with two of the remaining four “no†results later reversed.

    Only Quebec the exception (the 2/46) and it was never a 'country' in the past as such.

    Very interesting. I guess when finally faced with the question, people think 'might be the only chance we ever get, so why not' and say YES?

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Inverclyde by-election for Westminster set for 30th June. Likely swing from Labour to SNP as voters know a vote for Labour will make zero impact on current Condem government.

    Aye, I'm voting again in a couple of weeks due to the death of David Cairns.

    I feel surprisingly downbeat about this by-election, I would have preferred not to have to vote now.

    I won't lie, I didn't like David Cairns, I thought he was a smarmy git.

    However, I would rather he was still here, I think Scotland has lost a very capable politician, despite the fact that I had no time for him when he was alive. My dislike disguised an admiration for him, however grudging.

    If the SNP do win this seat it will be a hollow victory.

    http://www.newsnetscotland.com/scottish-news/2702-independence-referendum.html

    Scots referendum Yes 'ten times more likely to succeed'

    Of the 46 referendums held worldwide since 1905, 42 have resulted in a new independent country being formed – with two of the remaining four “no†results later reversed.

    Only Quebec the exception (the 2/46) and it was never a 'country' in the past as such.

    Very interesting. I guess when finally faced with the question, people think 'might be the only chance we ever get, so why not' and say YES?

    Is that in the first referendum or the second one which the UK government will impose on us?!

    Early indications are that they won't let us go without a squeal...we might need more direct action...

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Leading Economics Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett on the latest GERS figures (for 2009-2010):

    http://www.newsnetscotland.com/economy/2815-gers-report-shows-scotland-subsidises-uk-says-professor-andrew-hughes-hallett.html

    The things that stand out are that it has been a rough couple of years, but Scotland had weathered the storm better than the UK as a whole. She has a budget deficit for the first time in half a dozen years but it is a smaller deficit than the UK...... What’s more, this has been happening in a period when oil prices were low. This is of course a backwards looking exercise (up to April 2010). Those low prices were reversed a year ago, so the implicit subsidy will have increased markedly since then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Yes, Scotland seems to be doing remarkably well. It'd be interesting to see what the figures for individual sectors are.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Yes, Scotland seems to be doing remarkably well. It'd be interesting to see what the figures for individual sectors are.

    I think 'not too bad' is the best way of looking at it. Will be a fair deficit this year which highlights the need not to base reliance too heavily on oil and gas in the longer term, or at least use excess from good years to iron out the bad. Need to work on a replacement though; renewables / electricity export being the obvious one, but much work needed.

    Will be interesting to see what Inverclyde votes today - little impact on Scots politics, but big ramifications for Labour down south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Inverclyde - on paper, an easy hold for Labour, but that was before May’s Holyrood election saw most of the Scottish electoral map repainted in SNP yellow, and it goes without saying that a poor result here will put even more pressure on Ed Miliband.

    Political big guns have been visiting the constituency, in the shape of Alex Salmond, both Milibands, Gordon Brown, and soon to be ex-leader Iain Gray, as well as Ed Balls.

    That'll be the kiss of death for Labours chances then!

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Inverclyde - on paper, an easy hold for Labour, but that was before May’s Holyrood election saw most of the Scottish electoral map repainted in SNP yellow, and it goes without saying that a poor result here will put even more pressure on Ed Miliband.

    Political big guns have been visiting the constituency, in the shape of Alex Salmond, both Milibands, Gordon Brown, and soon to be ex-leader Iain Gray, as well as Ed Balls.

    That'll be the kiss of death for Labours chances then!

    Aye, apparently Labour have also been busing in activists from south of the border. They did that during the Scottish Elections. I was approached by some (from Liverpool - I asked) and inwardly thought 'Eh, ain't this a Scottish Election? Surely local labour activists should be out on the streets instead?' Raises the question as to where have all the local activists gone - over to the SNP in guess along with a lot of voters?

    I'm really not sure what will happen. I'd hedge my bets on it being damn close and it will be a serious shock for Labour if they don't hold it. An SNP win would be a tad confusing for the Tories though I imagine? They'll be pleased that labour lost but at the same time worried about SNP support growing further?

    EDIT. Some good news on foreign investment up here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-13982189

    Scotland leads UK in attracting foreign investors

    Scotland is attracting double its per capita share of foreign investment, according to new figures.

    Scottish Development International (SDI), which promotes the nation's investment opportunities overseas, said Scotland won 19% of UK inward investment projects last year.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Polling closed and first ballot boxes arrived for counting in Inverclyde.

    Various news sources saying both Labour and SNP believe it's neck and neck.

    Turnout looks like at least 50% - decent enough.

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    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

    Hilarious if SNP won Inverclyde.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Hilarious if SNP won Inverclyde.

    But not to be. A Labour fortress for 80 years is held again by Labour, but with a big dent votes and a significant rise for the SNP.

    2011

    Party Votes % ±%

    Lab 15,118 53.8 –2.2

    SNP 9,280 33.0 +15.5

    Con 2,784 9.9 –2.1

    Lib 627 2.2 –11.1

    UKIP 288 1.0 –0.2

    Maj. 5,838 20.8 -17.6

    Turn. 28,097 45.4 –18.0

    2010

    Party Votes % ±%

    Lab 20,933 56.0 +5.2

    SNP 6,577 17.5 -2.0

    Lib 5,007 13.3 -3.6

    Con 4,502 12.0 +1.8

    UKIP 433 1.2 n/a

    Maj. 14,416 38.4 +7.2

    Turn. 37,512 63.4 +2.5

    Turnout down, but votes cast show a significant rise in the SNP voters, likely stolen from the Libs who are way down. Probably stole some Labour votes too.

    Tory total votes down by nearly half. Hardly a surprise.

    A major contributing factor to the labour loss of votes looks to have been that many of their supporters decided to not turn up - something labour needs to sort out if it is to make it's 'big comeback'.

    So, relief for Labour, but the big comeback (in UK and Scotland) if it is to come, did not start in Inverclyde it seems.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Good analysis. What I would add is that the % swing from labour to SNP from 2010 to now is slightly higher than the average swing from Labour to SNP at the Holyrood election. This suggests that while people still seem to vote differently in Westminster contests, there has been a significant swing to the SNP both in a Holyrood and a Westminster context, which is fairly significant. However, I feel the main change at the next Westminster election, going by these results (though that could easily change in the next four years) is that the Lib Dem vote seems to be going in droves to the SNP in Westminster elections and with the boundary changes diluting the concentrated LD vote further by expanding seats with strong personal votes for sitting MPs into areas where they are far less favoured I suspect that on a bad night they could easily lose all their mainland constituencies, and perhaps could lose O+S if a strong independent candidate turns up, and that most of these seats would fall to the SNP. Of course, four years into the SNP's term and with a referendum around that time things will be very different, but if the SNP do make a good fist of governance they could start taking a fair few Labour seats too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
    Labour voters probably are not as pumped up for voting in by-elections, in line with the trend that Tories usually feel obliged to vote. The SNP continued to bounce very well, but Labour lost little, I'd imagine in the 15' elections, Labour, unless some Tory miracle/made up war, occurs, then Labour should do well again. I expect the SNP will gain a few seats in 15' aswell.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Labour voters probably are not as pumped up for voting in by-elections, in line with the trend that Tories usually feel obliged to vote. The SNP continued to bounce very well, but Labour lost little, I'd imagine in the 15' elections, Labour, unless some Tory miracle/made up war, occurs, then Labour should do well again. I expect the SNP will gain a few seats in 15' aswell.

    I would agree. I believe the 'Vote Labour for Westminster (to keep the Tories out) but vote for who you want to run Scotland in the Scottish Elections' will continue to hold, at least in the Labour strongholds of Scotland. Inverclyde is a classic Labour stronghold in Scotland and there is little doubt that Labours vote was dented because a lot of Labour voters did not bother voting, likely because of by-election apathy. However, you might ask why the apathy was high if the by-election was important and Labour had brought up so many big guns to highlight this.

    As for 2015? Well, South of the border I find hard to call. If the economy rebounds naturally as expected following a downturn, and the Tories can reduce the deficit, then Labour may struggle to make significant gains.

    In Scotland, 2015 is a long time away and will be post referendum if the SNP holds one as planned. Obviously, if the answer is yes to full independence, you can remove the Scots Labour vote from Westminster. If the answer (for the 2Qs I expect) is the lesser 'Full fiscal autonomy' (which I would say is probably more likely, with Scots tending to take things step-wise, cautiously), then still the block Labour vote might be expected to take a hit as Westminster will no longer influence any of Scotlands fiscal control, only defence etc. In fact I guess in the latter case, Scots MPs in westminster would only be there when needed to discuss defense/foreign policy etc so westminster would normally operate as the 'England + sort of Wales/NI parliament'.

    Certainly, 'true' Labour support - i.e. wanting Labour to run Scotland / excluding the 'anti-tory westminster' element, is way down up here. Only way I see for Labour to rebuild this is to reform as 'The Labour Party of Scotland', make their Leader solely elected in Scotland / independent of UK Labour, and only have loose ties with the the Labour Party south of the Border. The Scots, even those who do not want full independence, do like the idea of their local politicians fighting for Scotland with policy not being dictated from elsewhere; this is a big reason behind the massive recent surge for the SNP.

    As you know IF, I have little like for the Tories and would be only too happy to see their vote eroded down south. However, with a Condem coalition running the UK and the Tories pulling most of the strings, I (and other Scots) need to do what we can to lessen westminster influence, which for me mean means voting SNP. The only way to truly 'keep out the (westminster) Tories up here is for Scots to do it permanently, and vote YES + YES (full saltire passport) or NO + YES (Holyrood looks after its own bank account).

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    According to the BBC/Comres, 45% of those south of the Border believe that they should be able to vote on the issue of Scottish independence, blocking it if they wish.

    I must admit I'm a bit taken aback as such a move (although it will not happen) would destroy the international reputation of the UK as a democracy and contravene the The United Nations International Covenant on Civil And Political Rights, to which the UK is a signatory. Surely that figure can't be right? None of my friends/colleagues from south of the border think like this, for them it's entirely up to Scots. Who on earth are these 45%? Looking at this, I would have thought this was done to muddy the waters, but the net effect is to portray a proud democratic nation in a poor light. I just can't believe that figure is correct.

    The saving grace is that 47% don't believe that they should have a say. These are the people England should be proud of; those who truly believe in democracy.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-13995097

    For reference:

    http://www.hrweb.org/legal/cpr.html

    PART 1

    Article 1

    1. All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.

    2. All peoples may, for their own ends, freely dispose of their natural wealth and resources without prejudice to any obligations arising out of international economic co-operation, based upon the principle of mutual benefit, and international law. In no case may a people be deprived of its own means of subsistence.

    3. The States Parties to the present Covenant, including those having responsibility for the administration of Non-Self-Governing and Trust Territories, shall promote the realization of the right of self-determination, and shall respect that right, in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.

    In reality, by opposing independence / fighting against it, the westminster government has already breached P1.A1.3, which requires them to promote self determination. If Dave C et al were democratic, they should help facilitate the referendum and play no part in any campaign against it. The SNP + greens are in contrast, following the UN covenant, by offering the referendum and promoting it.

    Edited by scottish skier
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