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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    Danny Alexander Is Going To Lose His Seat To The SNP, Says Lord Oakeshott Poll

    Of those asked, 32% said they would vote for a SNP candidate and 25% said they would vote for a Labour candidate.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/28/danny-alexander-lose-liberal-democrat-election_n_5403140.html?utm_hp_ref=danny-alexander&utm_hp_ref=uk

     

    Remember that analysis I shared on the UK Politics thread a few days ago, looking at the various Scottish Lib Dems seat? I believe the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey constituency was accorded "Dead Cert Lib Dem Hold" status by Iain Dale!  :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:

     

    Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

     

    Bish

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Seems a massive turn around given the majority.

     

    Whats the local council like?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Seems a massive turn around given the majority.

     

    Whats the local council like?

     

    This is Scotland.

     

    You've seen what happens to Libs south of the border when they go into coalition with the Tories.

     

    Scotland is even less forgiving...

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    No. of Lib Dem MSP's seats before entering coalition with Tories = 17 seats 

     

    No. of Lib Dem MSP's in first Scottish Election after entering coalition with Tories = 5 seats.

     

    Wiped oot!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Seems a massive turn around given the majority. Whats the local council like?

    While the Holyrood and Westminster seats no longer match up (originally they were the same, but that ended when the number of Scottish Westminster seats were reduced) if you look at the Holyrood seat which now has the most population overlap with Danny Alexanders seat, the SNP's Fergus Ewing held the seat with a significantly increased majority taking 51.5% of the vote, up 11%. Lib Dem vote dropped 16%.The SNP has 22 councilors and the Lib Dem 15 on the Highland Council, but they are both still dwarfed by the pool of 35 independents.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I've talked previously about how project fear is primarily directed at women; Better Together believing they are easier to frighten than men.

     

    Well, seems we may now have project kinda creepy stalker.

     

    Lots of reports of women receiving this letter personally addressed to them from Better Together. People asking how BT got their details as letters turning up at e.g. their parents house where there's a different surname so it can't be from the electoral register or where they aren't on the register, e.g. due to being in a student flat with parent's address as register address.

     

    Of course the husband / partner / men in the home don't get a letter which, added to the 'Where are they getting this information on me from', makes it all a bit creepy . Like 'We have got your details and we are targeting you personally. Don't show this to your husband / partner - we don't want him to see it; that's why we didn't send him one'.

     

    I'm not sure this is a good approach to bringing women on side. Stalking is not normally something I believe they find attractive.

     

    An example, with annotations.

     

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    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    If Scotland stay each person is £1,400 better off if they leave there £1,000 better of if they join Russia there £3,000 better off. Which one is right ??

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27595415

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    If Scotland stay each person is £1,400 better off if they leave there £1,000 better of if they join Russia there £3,000 better off. Which one is right ??

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27595415

     

     

    All and none. Nobody can predict the future. 2/3 of Scots believe it would be economically better off or at least the same if independent. This has been consistent in SSAS surveys for years. 

     

    Economics is a red herring, but of course if one says one thing, the other has to say another.

     

    The key is understanding why e.g. Ukrainians don't think they're 'better together with one of the world's biggest economies' or the Danes don't think they're better together as part of a greater Germany. The union once at least had a purpose - empire - and with voting habits similar, well, independence not so much a priority. Purpose gone and voting habits increasingly different. Ergo, here we are.

     

    Although I think people will be judging the Scottish Government once again as more truthful (hell the population of England is seemingly very hacked off with Westminster parties, never mind Scotland). Even the BBC can't gloss this one over any more.

     

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27611563

     

    Scottish independence: Prof Patrick Dunleavy says Treasury claims 'ludicrous'
     
    An academic has accused the Treasury of a "ludicrous" use of his research in its analysis of the impact of Scottish independence.
     
    The Treasury claimed on Monday that research by the London School of Economics had put the cost of setting up an independent Scotland at £2.7bn.
     
    It cited a study carried out by the school's Prof Patrick Dunleavy.
     
    But Prof Dunleavy described the Treasury's claim as "crude misinformation".

     

     
     
    Wait, if they were lying here, then they are possibly lying about everything? Of course lots of people already believe that, but this might shift a few more.
     
    Posted Image
     
    Never known the LSE to be a big hotbed of Scottish nationalism.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    All major UK Cinema Chains have made a joint announcement that they are banning all Independence Referendum adverts from 5th June. A major prebooked blitz by Better Together and Vote NO Borders is due to stop this weekend ahead of the official campaign period. YES Scotland was planning a major cinema campaign as part of it's official campaign over the Summer holiday period. Co-incidence?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    All major UK Cinema Chains have made a joint announcement that they are banning all Independence Referendum adverts from 5th June. A major prebooked blitz by Better Together and Vote NO Borders is due to stop this weekend ahead of the official campaign period. YES Scotland was planning a major cinema campaign as part of it's official campaign over the Summer holiday period. Co-incidence?

     

    Aye, reports that customers complained about the BT/Vote NoB adds; lots of booing and hissing. I know quite a few folk who experienced it first hand.

     

    To be honest, I'm wondering whether it's better Yes don't in the end have the cinema adverts. People go there to escape reality for a while and have a good time. Political stuff is probably not that welcome.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    it's not co-incidence ski freak. You are correct. The BBC reported as complaints about Yes and No ads! The complaints were about No ads as they actually lied! They described the health service as a UK institution when from inception it has always been Scottish. Just blatant lies. It was rejected by the advertising standards after being reported to them as misleading(Lies) in other words. So they should have stopped the No advert in question instead they stop them all and it looks like even handedness. But the damage was done and yes don't get a chance to respond. This campaign is just so incideous on the no side that its frightning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Here is why the ad disappeared lying B****ds the lot of them utterly disgraceful:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Aye.

     

    Story on Wings.

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/unrestricted-warfare/

     

    The above is an email from Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, probably the UK’s (if not the world’s) most famous such institution. It was cited in the VNB ads with the suggestion that it would become “out of bounds†to Scottish children should Scotland vote for independence. 

     

     

     

    Better Together even pushing Tory Telegraph types towards a Yes.

     

     

    http://archive.today/koiRI

     

    Scotland's Better Together campaign is an absolute mess. It's turned me into a swing voter
     
    The Better Together campaign is useless. In theory at least they represent around half of the electorate in Scotland, so that really isn't good enough.
    The leader is a New Labour nightmare whose eyebrows have more personality than he does. Their (recently banned) cinema advert is asinine, bordering on offensive. The campaign is an absolute mess with no clear direction whatsoever.

     

    EDIT

     

    Good sleuthing on the grass roots astroturf Vote Nob camaign who's cinema ads implied your kids would be more likely to die in an independent Scotland and which had Great Ormond Street complaining.

     

    http://baffiebox.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/vote-no-borders-astroturfing-the-evidence/

     

    Vote No Borders & Astroturfing: The Evidence

     

    During this time, we’ve found evidence that suggests a whopping 93% of received donations registered over £500 but below the £7500 limit required for declaration before the referendum.
     
    Even more incredibly, more than 72% of the amount raised was attributed to donations between £7000 and £7500, allowing those donors to remain anonymous until after the vote.
     
    What follows surely removes any remaining doubt that Vote No Borders is an astroturf campaign, funded by anonymous wealthy backers who are deliberately avoiding public scrutiny, to give the impression of a campaign that has popular grassroots support.

     

     
     
    Basically London Tory thing again, as per Better Together.
     
    Personally, I think the Vote Nob adverts are quality. The 'Scots are thick as p*gonions' - vote No' angle is really clever hearts and minds stuff.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Vote NoB funding 'exposed',

     

    http://baffiebox.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/vote-no-borders-astroturfing-the-evidence/

     

    The way it was trumpeted extensively on the BBC the minute it was formed we all knew that Vote No Borders was no 'grassroots' campaign'. The above brilliant analysis of their fundraising total over time just proves how incredibly dodgy they really are.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    This referendum campaign stinks lets face it. There is a media black out when No openly lie to the public. We are not going to change it. We have to just keep fighting it and pray for a Yes win despite them. The best present we can give them is a bloody nose in september. The mainstream media are utterly deplorable. The Herald is as bad as the rest of them.

     

    Also heard Simon Pia on STV last nght saying the cyber campaign was hostile and septic. So he is happy with MSM campaign as it favours no by 80/20. However he doesn't like Wings/Newsnet/Bella Caledonia having an intellectual analysis and critique of the No campaign. I haven't seen anything Septic on their sites so I wonder who he is talking about. Or is it just a lame excuse for someone who wants everyone to agree with him and Darling.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Yep, it stinks to high heaven and as time goes on it gets worse. Hopefully in the next 16 weeks it'll stink so bad that it can't be ignored any more.

     

    As for the CBI, we all know their application to campaign for a No vote was deliberate and fully authorized by those at the top. It's not until the resignations from the organization, the financial hit, the bad publicity started happening that they realised how daft a decision it was. They then lied to get the application overturned, but they'll get away with it. In any case, hopefully they'll be sensible from now on and keep quiet as all eyes will be on them.

     

    You know, all we're asking is for a level playing field to let the people of Scotland make the choice. The ramifications of the electorate finding out after the event that they have been conned into either a Yes or a No could be much, much worse than either of the options being chosen freely and honestly.

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    I think one think the YES camp can't take lightly and that is not only are they up against NO, but critically they are up against the establishment, which rarely fails not to get what it wants.

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I think one think the YES camp can't take lightly and that is not only are they up against NO, but critically they are up against the establishment, which rarely fails not to get what it wants.

     

    Yes, UKIP/UKIP voters in the rUK are learning what it's like to be 'anti-establishment'. 

     

    However, as we have seen, attacks on UKIP (whether justified or not) by the establishment seems to have resulted in the opposite effect than intended. I've watched bemused because the establishment doesn't seem to learn. In Scotland, we've been through this all before.

     

    In both 2007 and 2011 the SNP were elected even though there was a barrage of anti-SNP propoganda stories in both cases which peaked ahead of voting day. One could argue it may have even helped the SNP get elected.

     

    The classic was this from 2007.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Following which the SNP of course 'won it' and Sun sales, after bucking the trend of all the others and staying steady, started a rapid decline too.

     

    In 2011 they finally backed the SNP, but only when their own poll confirmed what the others were finally saying just a couple of weeks ahead of the Vote - a potential SNP landslide was on the cards.

     

    In both the short, and, if it's a narrow No in September, the long terms, a positive case for the union is needed for it to survive. A negative case against independence is not cutting it and will not work.

     

    2007/2011 in Scotland and UKIPs recent successes in the rUK show the establishment doesn't always get what it wants anyway. At some point, if people are unhappy and they see a way to push for what they want, they'll push.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    The trump card on the Yes side is the grassroots campaign! No have nothing like it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The trump card on the Yes side is the grassroots campaign! No have nothing like it!

     

    Oh definitely.

     

    Here's another classic example of the No 'astroturf' campaign.

     

    This lassie's one of the 'proud scots but...' from Better Together's cinema adds.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Hoping to move back to England once she's done her uni degree.

     

    Which is fair enough, but to go nationwide in adverts pretending to be all proudly Scottish + British and claiming Scotland's better in the union when you're English and looking forward to going back home / leaving Scotland as soon as you can?

     

    I'm guessing she was employed for the video due to looks / acting skills rather than actually being 'grass roots' / a real person holding the views the video suggests they do.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    Yes, UKIP/UKIP voters in the rUK are learning what it's like to be 'anti-establishment'. 

     

    However, as we have seen, attacks on UKIP (whether justified or not) by the establishment seems to have resulted in the opposite effect than intended. I've watched bemused because the establishment doesn't seem to learn. In Scotland, we've been through this all before.

     

    In both 2007 and 2011 the SNP were elected even though there was a barrage of anti-SNP propoganda stories in both cases which peaked ahead of voting day. One could argue it may have even helped the SNP get elected.

     

    The classic was this from 2007.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Following which the SNP of course 'won it' and Sun sales, after bucking the trend of all the others and staying steady, started a rapid decline too.

     

    In 2011 they finally backed the SNP, but only when their own poll confirmed what the others were finally saying just a couple of weeks ahead of the Vote - a potential SNP landslide was on the cards.

     

    In both the short, and, if it's a narrow No in September, the long terms, a positive case for the union is needed for it to survive. A negative case against independence is not cutting it and will not work.

     

    2007/2011 in Scotland and UKIPs recent successes in the rUK show the establishment doesn't always get what it wants anyway. At some point, if people are unhappy and they see a way to push for what they want, they'll push.

    There is a difference though I think between the establishment attacking UKIP and attacking the YES campaign.  In the case of the former the only card they could play was to call UKIP racists and anti European, but as the have subsequently found out a large percentage of the population are either racist, anti European or both....meaning they proved to be one of the best recruiting sargeants UKIP could have hoped for.  

     

    With regards to SI, the kind of scaremongering being churned out by NO is unlikely to drive people towards YES, in fact I think it will have the opposite effect and actually work. In the case of UKIP people really wanted to be given a reason to vote for them and the establishment duely obliged.  I think in the case of SI people want to be given a reason not to vote YES and having almost complete control of the media means the establishment will be able to do a very convincing job over the coming weeks....most of which will bear little resemblance to reality imo, but unfortunately that's how the game is played! 

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    With regards to SI, the kind of scaremongering being churned out by NO is unlikely to drive people towards YES, in fact I think it will have the opposite effect and actually work.

     

    Fair enough.

     

    I tend to base what I think happens on what people did previously in a very consistent manner rather than going for the whole gut feeling stuff. 2007 and 2011 being classic examples in terms of the Scottish electorate, especially 2011. In the latter case they did something that the establishment said, and believed, was impossible - the parliament was designed to make it effectively so.

     

    In terms of the referendum, the loss of well over half the lead No had in 2013 suggest to me their campaign isn't working as prominent No figures keep saying. Hence e.g. Darling being increasingly sidelined.

     

    When you ask people, far more say they've moved in a Yes direction which supports the observed closure.

     

    Most Recent Poll for the Sunday Times:
     
    Have you changed your referendum voting intention over the last 18 months?
     
    67% I’ve not changed my position.
     
    4% I've changed from No to Yes
    7% I've changed from Undecided to Yes
    2% I've changed from No to undecided
     
    13% moved in Yes direction
     
    1% I've changed from Yes to undecided
    3% I've changed from Undecided to No
    1% I've changed from Yes to No 
     
    5% moved in No direction
     
    Net = 8% towards Yes
     
    No wonder people who have apparently moved directly from Yes to No are hard to find! 1/100 with 4 times as many doing the opposite.
     

    Maybe you are more in tune with the Scottish electorate? I'm not an expert on English politics / English psyche but I do seem to see some parallels in terms of the rise of anti-establishment parties in both countries as establishment reactions are similar globally.

     

    The UK itself has a very poor success rate in terms of keeping countries under its rule. My parents have watched country after country go independent and each time the same anti-independence tactics were used and course completely failed*. I've even seen a few go myself; when I was born there was still something of an Empire. 

     

    All gone now. Sun set incidentally in 1997 when Hong Kong went back to China and Scotland voted to re-open its own parliament. 

     

    Seems London rule just ain't that popular, even in England!

     

     

    *These tactics almost ubiquitously involved the British killing local people who wanted independence for their country. Thankfully, we've only one possible casualty so far in Scotland and that was a good while back. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Shedhead... Which brings us back to the strength of the grassroots campaign.  The working class who probably didn't turn out in large numbers at the Euros or any election are now mobilised and going to vote in the referendum. How many people in Pollock,Drumchapel,Easterhouse,Craigmillar do you think are regularly surveyed by the pollsters. Probably very few! This is why Yes will win. The middle class British establishment might scare the folk with two cars and a 5 bedroomed house. But they won't scare the unemployed people with a council house and no car!

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