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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Always interesting howthe mainstream media choose to interpret polls.You Gov have Yes at 37% and no at 51%.So they choose the headline No winning the argument.Its only when you look at you gov over the last 12 months you discover No is at its lowest level for over a year and yes at its highest ever with that pollster.Even more interesting that You Gov have showed Yes support 3 to 4% lower than any other pollsters in most of their polls.So if we take that as the way they ask the question then we expect a higher support with other pollsters which is fact.Once we get the TNS or Panel base poll for May this is likely to show Yes at 40/41%.Take out the don't knows and this could be 48/49%.Also no has been losing on average1% per month over the last 4 months in the poll of polls.No are winning because they started miles in front.But its a marathon and no are dropping back while Yes have all the momentum.The poll is good news for yes but don't expect the msm to tell you that.They want to fool the people into thinking yes have no chance.They know deep down the net is closing in on the negative no campaign.

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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My posts from elsewhere on the Yougov poll.

 

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/pro-independence-campaign-cut-gap-to.html

 

Yougov of course 11-13% too 'British'. As we saw when they asked CoB of their panel previously, they were well off with too many people from England. In this poll they've asked natID and of course are well away from reality based on the census and long-running academic SSAS surveys. This is before we have the silly 2010 weighting.

In brackets shows error compared to the SSAS.

We are interested to know how people living in Scotland see themselves in terms of their nationality. Which of the statements best describes how you regard yourself?


24(-5) Scottish, not British 
25 (- 8 ) More Scottish than British 
30 (+5) Equally Scottish and British 
5 (+1) More British than Scottish 
9 (+5) British, not Scottish 
5 (corr) Other
1 Don't know

 

---

 

Yougov make it very difficult to re-weight as they only give %'s in cross-tabs rather than absolute numbers of total respondent base. 

Do my best to re-weight to natID and it looks more like Yes low 40's with no only a point ahead, i.e. like panelbase or ICM (if the latter is also corrected for natID; it being slightly off too).

43Y
44N

 

 

The other Q's were interesting, even with a pro-union bias.

 

Majority correctly believe they will be able to keep using the £ in an iScotland.

 

Majority believe Scotland will remain a member of the EU

 

Majority believe pensions will be at least the same as is currently.

 

Majority do not believe in an exodus of businesses.

 

 

Overall another modestly positive result for the Yes campaign showing a continued narrowing and scepticism about the main negative arguments from the pro-union side.

 

-------

 

And there was this the other day from Yougov:

 

Which of these parties do you think best stands up for the interests of Scotland? 

SNP: 45% 
Labour: 17% 
Conservative: 6% 
Lib Dems: 2% 
Green Party: 1% 
UKIP: 1%

 

Which gives:

 

46% Pro-independence parties

26% Pro-union parties

 

And this is from the pro-union campaign / unionist parties favourite pollster.

 

Still waiting on the results of the other pro-union favourite pollster (they now have just two favourites; previously it was all but one). Reports of at least 2 new MORI polls on indy up to mid April (from people saying they were telephoned), but no results released. Normally they, as implied, give outlandishly good results for better together. Rumours are that these looked bad for the pro-union side, presumably with a final narrowing too, bringing even MORI into line.

 

 

---

 

On the subject of the current ramp-up of desperate Salmond smears...

 

Macwhirter prety much on ball as usual.

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/yes-or-no-road-to-referendum-will-lead-us-to-a-new-scotland.24090487

 

For a smear to stick it has to have some basis in reality. There are many legitimate grounds for criticising Alex Salmond, from his attitude to the banks to his tax policies, but suggesting he is a right-wing Ukip fellow traveller is simply daft; as is the suggestion that the First Minister is a supporter of Vladimir Putin. These things may go down well in the london press but no-one in Scotland takes them seriously. Nor do Scots buy Lord Robertson's astonishing remarks in his Brookings Institute speech last month about a Yes vote being a spring time for dictators.

 

Edited by scottish skier
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I think of more interest than the actual Yes/No is which side is best able to get their vote out. An interesting article from the What Scotland Thinks site, to summise it comes up with 90% of Yes 83% No in terms of possible turnout.

 

Could be a crucial factor if its a close race, its very hard though to put exact figures because this can be impacted by so many variables, weather, also what the polling shows nearer the time. Theres of course the complacency factor if one side is shown to have a clear lead:

 

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/who-will-turn-up-and-who-will-stay-home-the-potential-impact-of-differences-in-turnout/

 

I'm not sure what form of exit polling there will be on the day but with the USA ones it was pretty clear who was going to win because of the demographic splits, just looking at how this plays out in Scotland could be interesting because of the distinction between different parts of the main cities in terms of voter intention.

 

SS I'm sure has his finger on the pulse here, would I be right in thinking Glasgow would be more pro Yes than say Edinburgh?

Edited by nick sussex
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SS I'm sure has his eye on the pulse here, would I be right in thinking Glasgow would be more pro Yes than say Edinburgh?

 

Glasgow is probably the area that will carry a Yes. Without it, it would be difficult. It is after all the largest urban conurbation in Scotland.

 

It was in the past the 'second city of the empire' and traditionally more pro-union than e.g. the Highlands and Islands.

 

A Labour stronghold / the home of 'Red Clydeside'. Fort Labour in Scotland until recently.

 

The SNP win in 2011 was in a big way due to a huge, final breakthrough into Glasgow. 

 

Cross-tabs by region are a bit of a mixed bunch, with Glasgow showing a Yes sometimes and a No at other times. Part of this is due to the smaller sample size of course so hard to tell.

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Thanks SS so in terms of Glasgow that's the key area to max the Yes votes. I would have thought that its crucial for Yes to get the C,D,E,s out and keep the A,B,s at home! I hate to talk in those terms because essentially we're doing a Brave New World with this, but you know what I mean. It's all down to numbers at the end of the day.

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Working class vote will swing it in Glasgow.That group have shown a very strong desire for change.Edinburgh is a fairly middle class city on the whole.Would expect maybe 35% yes there and maybe 48% yes in Glasgow.Places like North west Highlands and Perthshire are likely to provide highest Yes vote.Ayrshire,Dumfries,Borders will maybe have the lowest yes vote.Ayrshire is a very protestant unionist area.Hence the Tories had seats there for a long time.Despite it being Burns country its also very pro British.I say that as a general statement from personal observations and knowing people from there.

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A quick word re the YouGov poll. The question wording re voting tomorrow rather than projecting those surveyed towards September 18th. There does seem to be a correlation between a larger No lead and when you have the immediacy decision or whether its a how would you vote in September which generally shows a smaller lead

 

Its probably the reason we're seeing less DK's but equally it is forcing the respondent into making a decision, now one could say that even if its a possible bias its equal to both sides but I think this maybe skewing the No vote more upwards.

 

Let me explain, okay for people who have read my previous ramblings on risk taking behaviour, this is key here, in stress tests people often move to the safer option, especially women voters, psychology studies show without doubt less risk taking behaviour in women, voting in this type of election with such big consequences would classify in that stress scenario.

 

Even though I expect women undecideds to break more for No, we might be seeing some skew with the polling which forces the decision now, this would be cross gender.

 

The safe status quo option is more likely to impact the late women undecided, I think  DK men will break for Yes.

 

I don't think we should view women here as just running towards the safer option, the female vote has more softer No's, research also shows that women want more information, its likely then they're taking a more pragmatic approach. It's an interesting non stereotype here, the "women are emotional" is simply not true here. The emotion argument is playing out more with men, as I've mentioned a few times the emotional buttons for men here, tribalism, control, masculinity etc are some underpinning of the Yes vote.

 

I wonder how this debate is effecting relationships with family members, or between friends, its an emotive subject. Trying to think of this from my own perspective,  lets say there was an EU referendum, I'm strongly pro Europe, the decision could really effect my life, equally the decision the people in Scotland make is going to have a big impact. How do people resolve that their friends or family members might disagree with them?

 

That someone they are close to could conceivably by voting have a detrimental effect on their life either way. I'm sure some in the No and Yes are finding this very frustrating because of their perceived consequences of which way the vote could go and impact their life.

 

Amongst all the tv coverage I've seen we've seen hardly anything of this side of the referendum debate and how its effecting people.

Edited by nick sussex
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The safe status quo option is more likely to impact the late women undecided, I think  DK men will break for Yes.

 

...

 

I wonder how this debate is effecting relationships with family members, or between friends, its an emotive subject. 

 

It depends what is considered safe. Is sharing a government with a country that just voted 50% or more for the Tories / extreme Tories (UKIP) a safe option? We know that the prospect of the Tories gets people to admit they are likely to opt for Yes in significant majority. The extreme English Tory effect has not been tested. It will be in a few weeks I guess. This is interesting, because the press here seems to be trying to keep quiet about the apparently guaranteed (based on polls) stonking UKIP win in England, so much so that IME, people don't seem to be aware that's what's going to happen. There'll be no hiding it when the votes are counted though.

 

Devo Max is what up to 2/3 want and would readily get >70% if balloted once the DK's/WNV's are excluded. Independence looks far more like Devo Max than the status quo. As we know, none of the scare stories about indy (out of the EU, no currency, businesses would leave....) are actually believed by a majority. Likewise, people believe Scotland could be a successful independent country. The fact that they'd opt for full fiscal autonomy shows that people are not worried about finances. There is basically 2/3 support for 'Independence'; it's just split between the 'fully indy now' people and the 'take it slowly via devo max' people.

 

I know quite a few families where the vote is split. It's not causing any problems; no more so than if people back different parties for an election. Normally, as per the polls, it's a Yes male and a reluctant No / DK female. Although I know cases of the other way around (best mate). 

 

Those definitely decided to vote no is ~1/3 which is those who opt for the status quo in 3 option polls with devo max, indy and SQ on offer. They are primarily those who have an emotional attachment to GB and natID that way. They I suppose would be the minority varyingly disappointed with a Yes vote. If we get down to emotions alone, given 74% pick Scottish and 17% British when forced to choose between the two, really we are down to less than 1/5 of the population who we might imagine would be very disappointed emotionally at Britain no longer being their country.

 

--------

 

EDIT. On the subject of the rise of UKIP...

 

Previously, my French wife's ex-pat friends and other immigrants I know from Europe and beyond tended to No, particularly over concerns over the scare stories about Scotland being out of the EU. However, that seems to have reversed over the past year or so. Most likely to do with the increasing anti-immigrant feeling in the rUK and associated rise of UKIP.

 

Looking at the ICM poll where we had country of birth cross-tabbed with Y/N, we now have a majority Yes amongst people Not born in the UK (51% Yes excluding DK's) when that was not the case a year ago. At 7% of the population, this group is not insignificant. Certainly, if UKIP win the EU elections as predicted, you might imagine even stronger support in this group for a Yes. I can't help but see the irony in this prospect; British nationalism promoting the end of Great Britain. 

Edited by scottish skier
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Can't wait for the next more reliable polls to come out. Be interesting to see how the likes of the Daily Fail and the Hootsmon try and spin a drop in support for No which is much clearer.

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SS, stato Q for you! Can UKIP vote rise enough to deny the Tories an MEP in Scotland and potentially give the SNP 4 seats while UKIP still loses their deposit? UKIP losing their deposit in Scotland, winning in England and the SNP taking a majority of the Scottish Seats would be as bright a beacon as we can get over how divergent the political direction of travel has become across the UK.

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Well it might stop the mock outrage about Alex Salmond...It's cringeworthy watching them trying to get annoid to make it look convincing. Expect a delude of smear stories from now until the referendum .Will they never learn! Do you remember what happened at the last Scottish election? I do!

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SS, stato Q for you! Can UKIP vote rise enough to deny the Tories an MEP in Scotland and potentially give the SNP 4 seats while UKIP still loses their deposit? UKIP losing their deposit in Scotland, winning in England and the SNP taking a majority of the Scottish Seats would be as bright a beacon as we can get over how divergent the political direction of travel has become across the UK.

 

Current polling to date would give:

 

3 (+1) SNP

2 (nc) Lab

1 (nc) Con

0 (-1) Lib

 

The main threat to the Con seat is from UKIP. They'd need to come third ahead of the Tories (and libs and greens etc) and get 10%+ of the vote to take the con seat. Unless they do that, their voters risk splitting the con vote (which is where UKIP support is coming from in addition to say a % or two from the BNP) and possibly hand the seat to the SNP.

 

 

We've had 4 Scotland-wide EU voting intentions (3 x ICM and 1 x survation) so far this year. All have yielded the above results. Only in one did UKIP come close to the Tories but this could be simple MoE.

 

Problem UKIP have is that they are an English/British party. This limits their vote to ~17% of the Scottish electorate (who strongly identify as British) but they are, as noted, competing with the Tory vote here. What they need is a lower Tory turnout and a good Tory switch to UKIP. A long shot, but possible.

 

However, even if UKIP did manage to take the Tory seat, the cross-border difference would still be stark. Half of Scotland's MEPs would be SNP / cente-left / liberal / pro Europe. 5/6 (83%) if you include Labour here. Only 1/6 'right / eurosceptic' MEP elected on just ~10% of the vote.

 

Down south, ~half of MEPs are likely to be Tory / UKIP elected on ~50% of the vote going by current polls.

 

To be honest, I think it might be amusing if we got a UKIP MEP. A UK-wide UKIP win is likely to help Yes ensure a majority in September. Upon a Yes, what party would a UKIP MEP in Scotland actually represent?

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For Scotland it could be a 3/2/1 split, with either UKIP or Tories taking the one seat and an outside chance of the Lib Dems hanging on. Other possibilities are 2/2/1/1, 4/2/1/1, or even 3/3 if UKIP only take away from Tories. 

Would a UKIP MEP be any worse than a Labour one? Well on policy they are pretty close both proud Brits and hardline unionists!

But moderately differently in terms of social and economic policies (Labour are a member of a genuinely socialist European party) and completely different when it comes to Euroscepticism: one of them will actually work to improve Europe. I don't think you should be dividing the European MPs into unionist/non-unionists here. Edited by Harve
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For Scotland it could be a 3/2/1 split, with either UKIP or Tories taking the one seat and an outside chance of the Lib Dems hanging on. Other possibilities are 2/2/1/1, 4/2/1/1, or even 3/3 if UKIP only take away from Tories. But moderately differently in terms of social and economic policies (Labour are a member of a genuinely socialist European party) and completely different when it comes to Euroscepticism: one of them will actually work to improve Europe. I don't think you should be dividing the European MPs into unionist/non-unionists here.

 

Currently, every poll for the EU elections yields what i posted. Been 4, all since the beginning of the year, with the last one from ICM couple of weeks ago.

 

The Lib Dem MP has already been attending the advice group for MEPs who lose their seats. Suggest the libs own polling ties in with public polls which indicate they will lose to the SNP.

 

That leaves one seat up for contention; the Tory one. Labour are polling less than 30% so unlikely to take it. SNP are on average polling over 10 points ahead so would have the better chance of taking the Tory seat if UKIP did split the Tory vote.

 

Polls may be wrong, but they'd have to be really wrong to change the likely outcome. Would be weird as SNP support for Holyrood is still at 2011 levels and they are ahead for Westminster too with levels here rising.

 

In the Euro's, the SNP lose some support to the Greens, SSP etc, i.e. other indy parties, so have been polling around the 40% mark.

 

Play with the d'hondt method here:

 

http://www.dhondt.eu/php/?seats=6&votes=185794,229853,127038,57788,80442,321007,27174&name5=SNP

 

You can just put in % shares totalling 100 votes to see outcomes.

 

----

 

Labour are not a socialist party; they are a centre-right authoritarian party. Nobody seriously argues otherwise, not even Labour lest they be branded 'red'. 

 

Scottish Labour could possibly be argued are more left than UK Labour. However, recently they have been using right-wing rhetoric ('Scotland can't be the only something for nothing country') and following the Tory one nation agenda of UK labour. Labour were of course responsible for ATOS, workfare, means testing / end to universal benefits, tuition fees, NHS privatisation, nuclear weapons - all labour policies and right-wing ones. They are now talking tough on immigration too.

 

Also, Labour have not ruled out holding a referendum on an EU exit; merely said it is 'unlikely' under them. Ergo they are clearly not fully committed to Europe and may yet change their position.

 

I must admit I'm confused about the 'socialist' grouping in the EU parliament permitting Labour in its ranks. Labour must be one of the most right-wing 'socialist' parties in Europe.

 

http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010

post-9421-0-19116100-1399052713_thumb.pn

Edited by scottish skier
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 I don't think you should be dividing the European MPs into unionist/non-unionists here.

errrrr.....why not harve? Once scotland becomes a normal european country , i will divide our euro mp`s based on party/policy rather than unionist /non unionist

 

how can we possibly operate electorally in a normal fashion when we have politicians who support us being controlled from a foreign parliament in a  foreign country.

 

I want control over people i elect , not who england elects. As for europe , i suppose i am mildly pro european , not impressed with the likes of barroso , and fear the e.u going the same way as the uk.

 

One of the issues where i deviate from the snp , but support independance fanatically regardless.

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----

 

Labour are not a socialist party; they are a centre-right authoritarian party. Nobody seriously argues otherwise, not even Labour lest they be branded 'red'. 

 

Scottish Labour could possibly be argued are more left than UK Labour. However, recently they have been using right-wing rhetoric ('Scotland can't be the only something for nothing country') and following the Tory one nation agenda of UK labour. Labour were of course responsible for ATOS, workfare, means testing / end to universal benefits, tuition fees, NHS privatisation, nuclear weapons - all labour policies and right-wing ones. They are now talking tough on immigration too.

 

Also, Labour have not ruled out holding a referendum on an EU exit; merely said it is 'unlikely' under them. Ergo they are clearly not fully committed to Europe and may yet change their position.

 

I

100 per cent agree ss. This is why i and many of my family stopped voting labour.

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Given my following of polls, knowledge of counting methods etc, I've been asked by a lot of pro-indy people about tactical voting for the EU elections. 

 

My response? Vote for who you would like to represent you in Europe

 

It is a form of PR so tactical voting won't impact things particularly. As Scotland has only 6 MEPs this harms PR somewhat though. If it was independent it would have ~12 and be sending MEPs to Europe in a more proportional manner, in addition to having a seat on the council of Europe etc. It would in turn even chair the council.

 

Obviously, if you want MEPs that fight Scotland's corner, then you should vote for parties that support Scottish independence. UK unionist parties will not act in Scotland's interests; rather they will vote according to what the UK party tells them to do. As Scotland is just 8.4% of the UK population, then UK parties would be not acting in the interests of the bulk of the UK population if they acted in Scotland's interests.

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This really is scraping the barrel.

 

The benefits curb on spare bedrooms will be abolished in Scotland within weeks in a deal authorised by David Cameron and George Osborne.

 

Westminster announced it was offering the devolved Scottish government the power to effectively restore the “spare room subsidy†yesterday — a move immediately accepted by Alex Salmond’s administration.

 

The decision to give Scotland the power was pushed through government by Danny Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury, and announced by Nick Clegg last month at the Liberal Democrat conference in Scotland. It is designed to show Scots that they can achieve political goals while still part of a United Kingdom, and without having to vote for independence in September.

 

The move also shows that senior Tories are prepared to abandon their commitment to the benefit curb if politically helpful. Labour is promising the abolish the rule cutting payments to people with spare rooms in the rest of the United Kingdom if it wins the general election, and it has become a key plank of their election campaign.

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It is a form of PR so tactical voting won't impact things particularly. As Scotland has only 6 MEPs this harms PR somewhat though. If it was independent it would have ~12 and be sending MEPs to Europe in a more proportional manner, in addition to having a seat on the council of Europe etc. It would in turn even chair the council.

 

 

aye S.S . I read somewhere that scotland should have a similar number of mep`s to finland? Another union dividend where yet again we are under represented.

 

To get those 12 MEP`s , will 6 be taken off the RUK`s total by the EU ? 

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The benefits curb on spare bedrooms will be abolished in Scotland within weeks in a deal authorised by David Cameron and George Osborne.Westminster announced it was offering the devolved Scottish government the power to effectively restore the “spare room subsidy†yesterday — a move immediately accepted by Alex Salmond’s administration.The decision to give Scotland the power was pushed through government by Danny Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury, and announced by Nick Clegg last month at the Liberal Democrat conference in Scotland. It is designed to show Scots that they can achieve political goals while still part of a United Kingdom, and without having to vote for independence in September.

The Scottish Government has been channeling additional funds through council 'discretionary housing payments' but the amount that can be paid as such payments is capped by the UK government and the cap was too low to completely cancel out the 'bedroom tax'. This change of policy lifts the cap, and while welcome is in effect another hidden subsidy from Scotland to Westminster. The UK government takes away people's benefits, the Scottish Government plugs the gap by diverting funding from the fixed Scottish Block Grant.No doubt when this hits the fan of the London based media, the story will be spun differently South of the boarder with this being painted as yet another handout of English cash for the subsidy junkies... A Yes vote will put this all in the open once and for all, for the first time it will be completely clear to everyone just what the financial flows North / South were in the UK.I've wondered at times if Danny Alexander is a YES Scotland sleeper cell at the heart of the UK Government! :p
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Interesting theory but Alexander is a liberal.Those guys are like jelly fish.Nae backbone and just float along and pin themselves onto any form of power regardless of what they actually believe.Come to think of it have there been any liberals that have ever explained what they actually believe in?

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Interesting theory but Alexander is a liberal.Those guys are like jelly fish.Nae backbone and just float along and pin themselves onto any form of power regardless of what they actually believe.Come to think of it have there been any liberals that have ever explained what they actually believe in?

 

David Lloyd George didn't have to. It was fairly common knowledge.

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It would appear we have a newspaper backing Yes.

 

Posted Image

 

EDIT.

 

Story.

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sunday-herald-is-first-paper-to-back-scottish-independence.1399149163

 

Sunday Herald is first paper to back Scottish independence
 
Saturday 3 May 2014
 
The Sunday Herald has become the first Scottish newspaper to support independence.
 
The paper declares its editorial position this weekend with a front page designed by Alasdair Gray, the famous artist, author and advocate of a Yes vote.
 
In its editorial, the Sunday Herald states: ''Scotland is an ancient nation and a modern society. We understand the past, as best we can, and guess at the future. But history is as nothing to the lives of the children being born now, this morning, in the cities, towns and villages of this country.
 
"On their behalf, we assert a claim to a better, more decent, more just future in which a country's governments will be ruled always by the decisions of its citizens.''
 
The paper supported the SNP in the 2007 and 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, but has said it will not automatically favour the SNP or other parties in its news reporting of the Yes campaign during the referendum, and will remain independent and balanced in its reports.
 
The Herald & Times Group, publisher of the Sunday Herald, The Herald and the Evening Times, is giving the titles' editors freedom to take their own editorial position on the constitution. The company is non-political and neutral.
 
The Herald has not declared an opinion on the referendum question. It will be up to its editor to decide when and if to do so.
 
HeraldScotland incorporates content from both print titles and also publishes a balanced range of online-only articles relating to the referendum. Our readers' forum is a neutral commenting facility and our moderating team will remain impartial in the independence debate.

 

Edited by scottish skier
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I remember posting a comment back last year that when the first Broadsheet comes out for Yes.This would be the turning point in the campaign.Well there we have it I truly believe this is a turning point now.Its game on!

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