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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Agreed SS add at least 5-10% onto the Yes vote in face to face and telephone surveys. Seems obvious to me that Scots are canny with their voting intentions. That's why there are so many don't knows in the face to face compared to online surveys.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

    Posted Images

    I agree that national identity is the greatest factor in the Indyref, something better together can not compete against. The exponential scare stories by the UK Government and media are in themselves self defeating, as the scare stories alienate the Scottish electorate with constant condescending, "Scotland can not do this or that". This makes for greater belief amongst the Scottish public to prove a point that Scotland can and will do "this and that", and be successful. Scotland has her own identity, would anyone want to deny a country, or it's people of that! Westminster hasn't woken up to this idea yet....

    Yet...leads me onto, the Conservatives are still to publish what they would be willing to offer for a no vote come September. Are the Conservatives being more astute and waiting to see where the polls are before any offer? I think SS has mentioned that the UK Government has a lot more detailed polling data at hand so it will be interesting what's on offer. My personal opinion is if yes is ahead then greater powers will be on offer possible devo-max, just to keep the UK on the top tables in the world.

    One word of caution. Read an article on world war two the other day, wikipedia. Winston Churchill approached the Irish free state, for help in the war, the sweetener was the UK would push for Irish unity. The Irish free state did not believe him and told him where to go. Churchill never told N Ireland of this offer until the papers were released in 1970. Is this form?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    SS I'm not sure how you're getting to your 70% of voters polled considering a Yes vote? Equally you seem to be assuming that softer Yes's are certain to vote that way? I will agree however that the TNS might be exhibiting some skew because of the face to face nature. I'll take your word for it that theres a shy Yes element, although I think this should lessen if that's the case, I would expect a bigger shy element re for example UKIP than the Yes campaign in Scotland.

     

    We're not talking about Yes/ No to shooting Bambi or culling badgers, I understand that independence is an emotive subject and of course the empathy side of things maybe lacking with some people regarding why their fellow citizens want to vote a certain way.

     

    You can see how this could get heated, if you're Yes you view this as a chance of a lifetime, if you're No you might see this as the Yes side putting your standard of living at risk or throwing up uncertainty about the future when many people already worry about this.

     

    As I mentioned in one of my previous posts the Scottish referendum is unique, you have a nation with a good economy, human rights, democracy, of course you may disagree with the democracy aspect, we are not dealing with an oppressed nation, or one coming out of war or one in which there are human rights violations.

     

    In referenda where you have a nation voting Yes the win is normally huge minimum 75%, generally though its in the upper 80's or into the 90's, the Yes vote is low risk in terms of perception of voters as the status quo is viewed as terrible, its a no brainer then.

     

    We know that a vote No will still lead to a decent standard of living for many Scots, not perfect by any means but which nation can say they have that. A vote Yes is riskier in the minds of many voters.

     

    Now if you look at the polling we see that divergence between men and women, also between age groups.

     

    Lets take the hypothesis and test it, men show higher risk taking behaviour than women. Older people are less risk taking.

     

    I can tell you that studies into those support both those hypotheses. Looking at the debate, what buttons does it push, in men risk taking, control, tribalism, masculinity.

     

    Women are generally more pragmatic, less nationalistic, take less risks, again studies support this.

     

    That's just a small part of the equation but an important factor IMO in why we're seeing the clear No for women , clear Yes for men, and of course over 55's clear No.

     

    I don't think any Yes supporter can clearly state life would be better under Independence, however Scottish voters through their own life experience now what the status quo means, its by no means perfect but it has some comfort for many of those No's.

     

    This is where the battle is and where for Yes to win it has to be on emotion and not economics, the Yes have failed to answer many questions with either enough  clarity or have they shown an acceptance that things could get rocky, every negative is simply batted back with its either scaremongering, bluff etc  if somethings perceived as too good to be true then some people just won't believe it.

     

    I will admit that the Better Together has been too negative but its difficult for them because every Scot knows what the status quo means, how do you sell something that's all a bit stale or try to enliven it with the more hope message of Yes.

     

    You see all this would be a slam dunk for Yes if  your country wasn't so successful, its an irony because in a sense the success of Scotland is in itself causing some Scottish voters to think why risk that.

     

    How people feel is of course fluid, we'll see over the coming months where the polls go.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This shows the comparative levels of grass-roots more clearly.

     

    This is a crucial factor in understanding what is happening.

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Now if you look at the polling we see that divergence between men and women, also between age groups.

     

     

    Aye. Every poll said a stonking Labour win - likely a majority - as we entered 2011. A sold up to 15 point lead. Labour hit 49% in one - 20 points ahead of the SNP in January.

     

    Polls don't tell you what's going to happen Nick. They just tell you what people answered at a particular time. What they will do / plan to do can be quite different.

     

    You see the Labour lead never really existed. A big section of the electorate said 'Erm, Labour' to pollsters, but that's not what they planned to do. You can see that looking at 2008-9. Polls 2 years before the election gave a much better prediction than polls 4 months or so before it (just add defecting federalist/devo max Lib Dems). Only in the last 6-8 weeks did people start telling the truth to pollsters.

     

    On the TV the pundits were all cheering a Labour win. Prof. Curtice - the polling 'expert' (ahem) - was predicting Iain Grey for FM.

     

    In contrast, in public, the SNP were saying they felt, from their own research and canvassing, that they had more of a lead than polls said and could potentially do better than 2007. Behind closed doors they felt a landslide was possible, even a majority.

     

     

    Women are generally more pragmatic, less nationalistic, take less risks, again studies support this.

     

     

    *Or, to partly paraphrase Margo, 'Women are more polite'? Maybe more 'shy' / less vocal / confrontational? I'd imagine studies would support that too...

     

    After all, they've backed indy far more strongly in polls just a while back (equal to No or more), notably in 2011 when Yes went ahead in the 'euphoria' of the historic win. But then at that time it was 'ok' to say Yes. I mean the SNP had just won a landslide. The Tories were back and Scotland was 'going for indy'. The mood was one of hope and open support for this. You even had people who didn't vote SNP backing them / their stance with polls hitting over 50% for SNP VI.

     

    Then the establishment onslaught began in full attack - higher than ever before. Anti-English. Braveheart. Breaking up Britain. Nasty separatists. Alex the dictator. You'll be thrown out of the EU. Are you mad - Scotland will end up like Greece...

     

    The BBC, every mainstream title. Every day...

     

    Incidentally, the same happened in 2007. Yes was showing leads in polls ahead of and around election time. After the SNP won and the media went into attack mode, once again Yes dropped as people went quiet. Showed largely parity up to 2011. 

     

    *EDIT

     

    I should say this is the experience of my wife and her female friends vs me and my male friends. My wife is open as she's French and can't understand why people would vote against independence for their own country. She states this openly amongst her female friends. However, the subject is not one which they'll talk about in a group - everyone goes mainly quiet and awkward if someone brings it up. Lots of them have said they're voting Yes quietly to her though.

     

    Of course a big majority for Yes amongst blokes I know. Open for debate over a pint too.

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    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    In terms of success.Scotland out performs the UK.But we are comparing Scotland with a flat lining UK not a very successful country.Scotland does well despite the union not because of the union.Compared to Norway so similar in so many ways we are failing.I want to aspire to something better than UK OK .To me that sums them up.Aye we are not very good but its ok stick with us.The one that really annoys me is more job opportunities in the UK.Where London? By implication they suggest if you stay in the UK you get to leave Scotland to find a job.God these guys are so generous!

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    Posted
  • Location: glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters hot summers
  • Location: glasgow

    I agree that national identity is the greatest factor in the Indyref, something better together can not compete against. The exponential scare stories by the UK Government and media are in themselves self defeating, as the scare stories alienate the Scottish electorate with constant condescending, "Scotland can not do this or that". This makes for greater belief amongst the Scottish public to prove a point that Scotland can and will do "this and that", and be successful. Scotland has her own identity, would anyone want to deny a country, or it's people of that! Westminster hasn't woken up to this idea yet....Yet...leads me onto, the Conservatives are still to publish what they would be willing to offer for a no vote come September. Are the Conservatives being more astute and waiting to see where the polls are before any offer? I think SS has mentioned that the UK Government has a lot more detailed polling data at hand so it will be interesting what's on offer. My personal opinion is if yes is ahead then greater powers will be on offer possible devo-max, just to keep the UK on the top tables in the world.One word of caution. Read an article on world war two the other day, wikipedia. Winston Churchill approached the Irish free state, for help in the war, the sweetener was the UK would push for Irish unity. The Irish free state did not believe him and told him where to go. Churchill never told N Ireland of this offer until the papers were released in 1970. Is this form?

    Mark there will be no powers on offer nor possible devo max. its not going to happen. You want to believe it but then caution everyone with chuchills duplicity with the loyalists during the war. Yes its true and yes remember the old adage someone remarked on to me a while back

     

    "better to be the enemy of westminster than its friend. If you are their enemy , they will try and buy you. If your their friend , they will try and sell you."

     

    None of them can be trusted , both history and current affairs show this. As ss points out , we can choose the government of scotland , you cant with the government of the uk. When you have unaccountable politicians in another country legislating on your affairs that you never voted for , then it goes against everything democratic. 

    Isnt what we are saying about london the very same that england is saying about brussells????

    They will offer everything and do nothing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Just to add something to my earlier post in terms of Male vs Female indy support.

     

    As noted, the TNS poll I talked about (which handily asked about commitment to stances), while it is one apparently good for No, it actually showed only 30% committed to No with ~70% open to independence (those who have yet to make a final decision). The 30% should be largely the 'status quo' people you get in devo max vs indy vs status quo polls.

     

    Now they don't cross tab Y/N commitment with sex, but this is what you have for:

     

    I have definitely decided how I will vote and will not change my mind
     
    56% of men
    48% of women
     
    Includes those committed on both sides.
     
    Hmmm. That doesn't seem to equate to women being much more firmly committed against independence. There's little difference at all. Would suggest the 30% committed to No is rather evenly spit between men and women (which would make sense as otherwise you'd have weirdly low levels of committment to the union in men with even strongly British identifying people for indy). A slightly higher level of 'still making up my mind' for women is all I can see. 
     
    What this instead suggests is just more men willing to admit 'Yes' when asked compared to women, however actual commitment to the union vs openness to independence is not particularly dependent on sex. 
     
    If was on the pro-union side, I'd be wanting 40% or more of the total electorate committed to No at the minimum to start feeling comfortable, particularly given turnout projections hitting 80%.
     
    ---
     
    As for more powers...
     
    There's nothing on offer from Labour (Devo Nano is a joke and harmful). The Lib Dems offer nothing like Devo Max with no chance of implementation. The Tories offer more powers? LOL.
     
    Would require the consent of the rUK electorate too...
     
    I'll quote Andrew Neil (September 2013), strong unionist and veteran Westminster politics pundit:
    “Devolution, the Calman Commission, the Scotland Bill, the Edinburgh Agreement, all of this and more you have, is because Westminster parties are scared of the SNP.  If you vote ‘No’ you massively change the balance of power and they will not only give you nothing, but will probably take powers away from the Scottish Parliamentâ€.
     

     

     

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    SS how many were committed to Yes? The female vote is more likely to side with No regardless of the current percentage certain to vote No at this time. The debate is always more likely to trigger the male vote because of the reasons I have given.

     

    The only way to move those women into the Yes column is for their worries about the future to be alleviated, so far the Yes side can only come up with hopes and not facts, I know its a bit catch 22 because essentially if you vote Yes you have to accept a level of uncertainty, it goes with the territory.

     

    Women are less likely to accept that uncertainty than men, they are less risk taking. This has been proven in countless studies, this is key for where the late undecideds break, given the research the stressful situation re having to make big decision re independence will likely see women break more for the less risky option of the status quo, men will probably break for Yes.

     

    I don't presume to know the mindset of Scottish voters in general or their life experience and I certainly wouldn't be patronising to you to suggest otherwise however as a neutral I can just look at the polling and general human behaviour which as you know is both my previous education and most of my working life.

     

    I'm simply addressing the more psychological side of the debate to see perhaps where this will be won or lost, the phrase know your market you're probably aware of and this is pertinent to your debate, so far the Yes have probably delivered the right message for men  upto 55 in general however for women they have not IMO done that, equally the less risk taking behaviour of the over 55's is another area that needs to be worked on.

     

    It's clear that unless the Yes close the gender gap and also chip away at the No lead in the over 55's they will not be able to win the referendum. If they can however start to do that then they have a good chance.

    Edited by nick sussex
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Nick, I've been looking at other M/F splits. To be honest, it's only on clearly straight Y/N they most deviate from men.

     

    Women are equal to or even less likely to support 'joining the union today' which agrees with the TNS commitment to No I talked about.

     

    They are also more mistrusting of Westminster than men and more sceptical that their will be any increased devolution if there is a No.

     

    A clear majority would vote for indy at the prospect of the Tories as per men and a majority would also be inclined to vote for indy if they felt that it would make Scotland more prosperous.

     

    I'm not seeing any strong evidence for more support for the union in women, just more sceptical if anything and hence more DK, with a stronger shy Yes than men.

     

    I'm going to gather this up as it's quite interesting. As noted, in the past, support for indy was equal to or greater than the union in straight Y/N. So why has this changed?

     

    Or has it really?

     

    As noted, polls don't tell you what people are thinking, just what they answered. These two are not necessarily the same at all. 

     

    If we had been having this conversation in January 2011, you'd likely be saying the SNP has failed to convince the electorate to vote for them and Labour are on for a big win, as the polling experts were saying because that's what the polls said. You'd have been completely wrong, as the experts were, because you didn't look past the headline figures.

     

    As I said and you elude to, it's because we are not dealing with an election but something very different. 

     

    I'll dig as much as I can out later. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    SS its difficult to draw clear conclusions from a hypothetical vote to join the union, equally if hypothetically the UK wasn't in the EU and was debating to join I would be doubtful you'd get a Yes.

     

    Remember here life experience, all I've ever remembered is being in the EU on your side you've been brought up within the UK.

     

    You have to be very careful in making conclusions because often we see some bizarre non-correlations. I know the polls were out with the devolution question but that had a low risk attached to it in the eyes of the voters.

     

    Lets be honest here, if hypothetically the rUK and the SNP had already pre-negotiated many issues say we got agreement on a currency union, the EU stated clearly a timeframe for EU continuation, issues surrounding pensions etc had already been negotiated then I think we'd be seeing Yes clearly because essentially you know exactly what you're voting for, less risk more certainty.

     

    Now of course its not in the best interests of Better Together to  have certainty, I know many in the Yes side are critical of their campaign but let me ask you this question, did they have any choice but to leave that uncertainty, they're battling the hope message which is powerful, what do they use?

     

    If theres no fear in voters minds they lose, I'm not saying this is fair because I think its fair to give Scottish voters a clear choice with as much certainty as possible.

     

    But both sides will do whatever they think they have to to win, it might be unfair, there maybe alot of facts put out which are fiction on both sides.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    Nick - the Britain in the EU is a very poor comparison for Scotland in the union.
     
    Does the EU take all Britain's taxes and just give it pocket money? Does the EU control just about all taxation and welfare in Britain? Does the EU largely control Britain's media? Do EU countries elect the government that completely governs Britain and regularly elect administrations very much against the politics of British? Does the EU put its WMDs in Britain against the will of Britain's electorate?
     
    The only real comparison is that legally Britain is free to leave the EU if it votes for it just as Scotland can leave the UK if it wants to.
     
    Totally agree on fear. The pro-union campaign is based solely on this. It has no grassroots - just politicians and the MSM spreading fear and uncertainty. This is because they are unable to put forward a positive case based on what the Scottish electorate would like, i.e. a Devo Maxed Britain. 
     
    Also, they are very much targeting the female vote with 'project fear'; the name Better Together gave their own campaign internally. They know, as you say, it seems women are apparently more nervous about Yes but that they've largely lost with men. Ergo, the aim is to bully women into a No. It's very ugly, but then this is the unionist British establishment.
     
    Anyway, they'd better watch themselves. Hell hath no fury etc...  Posted Image
    -------------
     
    Ok, first batch of the battle of the sexes. I've tried to pick out data that might yield subtle clues as to why, although climbing (in fact one of the main reasons for the closing gap) Yes remains ostensibly lower among women than men.
     
    National identity first just in case there was wild differences.
     
     
    2011 Census
    Q. Multi-choice national identity
     
    Males:
    62.2% Scottish only
    17.9% Scottish and British
    1.9% Scottish and other identity (other than British)
    8.9% British only
     
    Females:
    62.6% Scottish only
    18.7% Scottish and British
    1.9% Scottish and other identity (other than British)
    7.9% British only
     
    So no meaningful difference.
     
    From this we might expect emotive attachment to the union / the concept of a Britain as a unified country to be the same in men and women. We can test using some more recent polling evidence…
     
    Panelbase August 2013
    Q. If Scotland was currently an independent country, would you vote to surrender control of taxation, welfare, defence and oil revenues in order to join the Union?
     
    Males
    18% Yes
    65% No
     
    Females
    17% Yes
    46% No
     
    So, emotive attachment to the union is no different from this it seems. Only those who strongly believe in a unified Britain would answer Yes to this question. In SSAS forced choice national identity, 17% chose British on average (74% Scottish); this being those who said Yes above presumably.
     
    You might say ‘but the No is lower amongst females’. However, saying No requires you to openly reject the concept of Britain (whereby opening yourself up to accusations of disliking English people etc), whereas DK doesn't really by taking away the emotive aspect / allowing you to justify not saying Yes due to economics etc.
     
    I suspect men are less uncomfortable than women with saying No here (likely those who have are ‘Scottish only’ in identity) as it can be construed as more confrontational, hence the moderately higher level openly rejecting the concept of Britain.
     
    Panelbase November 2013
    Q. Imagine yourself meeting someone from overseas for the first time. Regardless of how you plan to vote in the referendum, would you feel more proud introducing yourself as Scottish or British?
     
    Males
    62% Scottish
    24% British
     
    Females
    62% Scottish
    14% British
     
    Might suggest women a little more Scottish, but this is a 1000 person sample so 3% from the mean could be just sampling error.
     
    Right, so evidence so far is that nothing suggests females feel emotively more attached to the union / the concept of Britain as a unified country.
     
    Next let’s introduce some excuses for voting Yes.
     
    Panelbase April 2014
    Q. If the Yes campaign could persuade you that you and your family would be economically better off with Scottish independence, in these circumstances, how likely or unlikely would you be to vote Yes for an independent Scotland in September?
     
    Males
    57% Likely
    36% Unlikely
     
    Females
    50% Likely
    38% Unlikely
     
    Ok so a majority for independence in both cases and very similar levels for No/unlikely between men and women. But we might ask why lower support for independence in females even if they feel equally convinced that it would make their family better off? Can’t be more attachment to the union. Maybe because it is once again forcing them to openly reject the UK, hence a reticence to say Yes? Economics can't be the main answer anyway...
     
    Q. If you felt the 2015 UK general election was going to result in a Conservative-led government, or another Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition at Westminster, would you be likely or unlikely to vote for an independent Scotland in the referendum?
     
    Males
    51% Likely
    38% Unlikely
     
    Females
    45% Likely
    38% Unlikely
     
    Interesting that once again we have a majority for women but while the unlikely is similar level to the men, the likely is lower, i.e. more DK’s as usual from ladies here. Anyway, this and the above question seem to suggest that women are perfectly willing to vote for independence – you just need to ask them the right way. No need to promise them more prosperity, just the Tories is enough it seems. Ask them straight up without an excuse though and they shrink back from saying Yes where men do so far less. More polite?
     
    Q. If you felt the 2015 UK general election was going to result in a Labour-led government at Westminster, would you be likely or unlikely to vote for an independent Scotland in the referendum?
     
    Males
    50% Likely
    39% Unlikely
     
    Females
    35% Likely
    39% Unlikely
     
    Now that’s quite interesting. Labour prospect makes no effective difference to men but it does to women. Well it does and it does not. Support for the union doesn't rise at the prospect of a UK labour government for women, just likelihood for Yes falls. Surely if the prospect of a UK Labour government was really attractive, support for No would rise? It doesn't though. Maybe because it is harder to excuse a Yes because labour are supposed to be the nice social solidarity party? You can say Yes because of the Tories, but harder to justify yourself publicly in traditional labour Scotland if it is to be them in power?
     
    Food for thought.
     
    I'll look at economics next. Yes, there is more nerves here amongst ladies based on polling data here, but not enough to explain Y/N differences. Rather, we must find something in the above etc to explain those fully.
    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    SS the analogy I was using perhaps confused things, what I was trying to get across is our life experience and what we've known and become used to from a young age, I have never known anything but the UK in the EU, the fear factor of leaving that may effect how people vote if we get to an In/out referendum on that issue, equally for you and other Scottish voters, some will have that fear factor of leaving the UK.

     

    SS I do appreciate all the time you put into this thread, have you ever thought a change of career might be in order, you do love your stats. I copped out at University so when it came to my dissertation I thought I'd avoid a lot of work by going down the qualitative research method rather than the one way anovas and correlation co-efficients, sadly that backfired when I realized I had to transcribe 12  one hour long interviews fully for the appendix!

     

    In terms of the Panelbase results and why we're not seeing the economy move them completely over compared to the men for this we need to dig down a but further into the female psyche, its interesting the Scottishness factor isn't correlating with Yes for women, a few ideas here.

     

    I suspect we're looking at issues surrounding masculinity, the need for more re-inforcement, the tribal factor here an Us and Them, I think its apparent that perhaps too much is being made of Scottishness as a basis to vote Yes.

     

    What we don't have here is that clear narrative displayed in many of the worlds recent nation referenda, that which overrides all others, so small country oppressed, poor standard of living, anything is better than the status quo message.

     

    We have the message, things might be better, you'll get more accountability re Holyrood and be your own nation, perhaps more women already feel that Scotland is its own nation, the independence rubberstamp isn't such a requirement for them.

     

    The problem with many of these polls is that they just don't ask enough interesting questions, we don't get to see the more interesting ideas that Scottish voters have.

     

    So its left to me and SS to debate this, the stats man versus the psychologist!

    Edited by nick sussex
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Enough stats for tonight anyway...

     

    Something of a scandal developing.

     

    BBC etc have often had head honchos from CBI Scotland (Confederation of British Industries) on as 'impartial' views from the business world yet they are hardcore pro-union just as they were in e.g. 1997.

     

    Well, Business for Scotland - a growing movement which back indy and have way more members than the CBI, have forced the CBI to register as part of the pro-union campaign.

     

    Of course the CBI (as per a good few British trade unions and their members), haven't actually consulted those Scottish Businesses who are members for their views... Standard pro-union practice of 'sod democracy'.

     

    Anyway, we have important member companies of the CBI already resigning from it as a result. Herald and BBC (reluctantly of course):

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cbi-confirms-that-its-backing-an-indyref-no-vote.1397820181

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-27077436

     

    Original Business for Scotland story:

     

     

     
    Victory for Business for Scotland as CBI is forced to register as part of the No Campaign
     
    Since Business for Scotland broke this story several CBI members have been telling us they are dismayed or disappointed with the CBI stance.  This press statement has just been released by Aquamarine Power a CBI member that is not a member of Business for Scotland.
     
    >>Today (Friday April 18) it has been revealed the CBI has registered with the Electoral Commission as a backer of the NO campaign against Scottish independence.
     
    Responding to the news Martin McAdam, Chief of Executive Officer of wave energy company Aquamarine Power (a member of the CBI)  said:
     
    “Businesses do not vote, people vote. The CBI has registered with the Electoral Commission as a NO campaign backer without consultation with its members. As a business Aquamarine Power has been firmly neutral on the matter of independence. We have adopted this view after consultation with our Board and Management Team and as a consequence we can no longer remain members of the CBI. Although Aquamarine Power’s staff and Board Members may have personal views on the matter of independence, this has no influence on our agreed company position.â€
     
    Martin P. McAdam
    Chief Executive Officer

     

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  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Enough stats for tonight anyway...

     

    Something of a scandal developing.

     

    BBC etc have often had head honchos from CBI Scotland (Confederation of British Industries) on as 'impartial' views from the business world yet they are hardcore pro-union just as they were in e.g. 1997.

     

    Well, Business for Scotland - a growing movement which back indy and have way more members than the CBI, have forced the CBI to register as part of the pro-union campaign.

     

    Of course the CBI (as per a good few British trade unions and their members), haven't actually consulted those Scottish Businesses who are members for their views... Standard pro-union practice of 'sod democracy'.

     

    Anyway, we have important member companies of the CBI already resigning from it as a result.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cbi-confirms-that-its-backing-an-indyref-no-vote.1397820181

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-27077436

    SS is this something to do with donations re how much you're allowed to give before you have to register? I agree its a bit strange for an organisations head to not clear this with a majority of its members.

     

    So I take it then that Business for Scotland is registered with Yes and they thought it wasn't a level playing field if the CBI was trying to purport itself as being neutral and that's why they put pressure on them to sign up to Better Together.

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  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    Fraser Nelson is predicting victory for the Yes campaign in September...........

     

    "Salmond is a brilliant late-stage campaigner, and I absolutely think it could happen. A lot of people down here underestimate how SNP activists have waited their whole lives for this – this is not just another election for them. The battle is fought in ways they just don't understand down here. The unionists have deployed their nuclear weapons – EU membership and the pound – and all this has served just to increase nationalist support. These were the biggest cards the unionists have to play, they played them early, and they seem to have backfired. Nobody in the Better Together campaign has worked out how to win the argument yet.

     

    Full article: http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/apr/18/fraser-nelson-spectator-editor-put-money-on-ed-miliband

     

    Bish

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    SS is this something to do with donations re how much you're allowed to give before you have to register? I agree its a bit strange for an organisations head to not clear this with a majority of its members.

     

    So I take it then that Business for Scotland is registered with Yes and they thought it wasn't a level playing field if the CBI was trying to purport itself as being neutral and that's why they put pressure on them to sign up to Better Together.

     

    That's about right.

     

    Business for Scotland is a group of pro-Yes business people, mainly owners. They are signed up in a personal capacity and they do not claim to represent their staff / consider the business they own neutral.

     

    CBI is an umbrella organisation for mainly large British industries with a Scottish branch. Most Scottish companies are not CBI members but are SMEs represented by the FSB who have taken, correctly, a neutral stance.

     

    The heads of the CBI, notably Iain McMillan - a big Tory who was against devolution - have acted unilaterally in declaring official backing of No without consultation with members. This was after being pushed by Business for Scotland members who are also CBI members (or specifically their companies are). A kind of 'Erm - you keep voicing support for No and funding it indirectly - you can't keep doing that unless you take a stance'. 

     

    Of course some CBI members have quit in response and others are now considering their positions.

     

    It's something of a scandal. For example, I understand VisitScotland are a member of the CBI. This is a tourism organisation with a remit from Scottish Government to promote tourism in Scotland. It should be completely neutral yet the CBI stance makes it apparently a backer of the union.

     

    CBI take membership fees too. This would mean organisations potentially funding the Better Together campaign even though they have not taken a side / should not.

     

    It's fairly common pro-union behaviour. The bulk of trade unions have either backed Yes following member consultation or stayed neutral (e.g. STUC). Some however backed No without member consultation causing uproar amongst paid up members.

     

    Unless the CBI back down, I imagine over the coming weeks we'll see more companies start to withdraw stating a neutral stance etc.

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  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    CBI have been outed.They opposed devolution as well.So who exactly did they ever represent?The majority of businesses are neutral on the subject as anything else can have implications for staff and potential customers.Business for Scotland are the firms brave enough to campaign for yes.Watch and wait as more businesses leave CBI.The clues in the name anyway Confederation of BRITISH industry!

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  • Location: glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters hot summers
  • Location: glasgow

    CBI have been outed.They opposed devolution as well.So who exactly did they ever represent?The majority of businesses are neutral on the subject as anything else can have implications for staff and potential customers.Business for Scotland are the firms brave enough to campaign for yes.Watch and wait as more businesses leave CBI.The clues in the name anyway Confederation of BRITISH industry!

    saw that november. read some of the articles on nns and wings. wouldnt imagine too many businesses are very happy with them , like you say most i would imagine wish to remain neutral.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Scottish Television / STV have quit the CBI.

     

    What choice did they have as a licensed terrestrial broadcaster.

     

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland/272211-businesses-protest-after-cbi-announces-decision-to-back-no-campaign/

     

    The first two companies to leave were the Balhousie Care Group and wave energy specialists Aquamarine Power.
     
    They were later followed by STV, who said the decision conflicted with their duty of impartiality.

     

     
     
    Next (working / business) week we should expect a series of resignations.
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  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

     

    Scottish Television / STV have quit the CBI.

     

    What choice did they have as a licensed terrestrial broadcaster.

     

     
     
    Next (working / business) week we should expect a series of resignations.

     

    I think the Head of the CBI in Scotland should resign. I can't believe that anyone thought this was well thought out. I know Business for Scotland is pro Yes but isn't that organisation one where those companies decided by themselves to join it so there was no conflict of interest?

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I know Business for Scotland is pro Yes but isn't that organisation one where those companies decided by themselves to join it so there was no conflict of interest?

     

    That's correct. Also, it is not businesses that are joining Business for Scotland, but individuals. They are declaring their personal support. 

     

     

    http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/member-profiles/

     

    Our members are business professionals, owners, directors and entrepreneurs from all over Scotland, some have small businesses, some fairly large ones, they also support different political parties and cover a wide range of business sectors.

    What unites them?  Their unwavering belief that Scotland, and Scottish business can thrive as a result of voting Yes to become an independent country.

     

     

    BBC now reporting STV's resignation from the CBI.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27089800

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    According to the Sunday Herald - and I imagine hardly a surprise - VisitScotland and Scottish Enterprise have now also quit the CBI.

     

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  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    You couldn't make this stuff up SS.The no campaign are a shambles.

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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest ICM for the Scotland on Sunday:

     

    39% Y (nc)

    42% N (-4%)

     

    Excluding DK

    48% Y

    52% N

     

    http://archive.today/KQO2o

     

    Interestingly, ICM found 28% of people from England are 'anti-themselves' (if you go with the line of many prominent unionists) with a further 14% pondering the idea. 

     

    Only 28 per cent of English-born voters say they will vote Yes, compared with 58 per cent who say they will vote No.
     
    This contrasts with Scots-born voters who, taken alone, are in favour of independence by 42 per cent to 40 per cent.

     

     

    EDIT

     

    Also a Survation for the Sunday Post which also shows a gap closure, this time of 4 points. Only seen with DK excluded on twitter so far:

     

    45Y / 55N

     

     

    For the ICM, it would appear from the above they asked country of birth. The tables could be interesting on this to see how well their panel sample match the census.*

     

     

    EDIT2

     

    On the developing CBI saga, Herald reporting that Highlands and Islands Enterprise likely to be the next high profile body to quit.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cbi-in-crisis-as-three-more-members-quit-over-better-together-support.24006272

     

     

    *EDIT. Apparently ICM have 15% of the sample born in England. The correct figure according to the census is 9.6% (adults aged 16+). So they seem to have a bit of an issue here. 

     

    I'll need the tables to re-weight, but correcting for this roughly and you could have something like 38Y/39N so more 49% Y / 51% N excluding DKs.

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    The polls show what we all suspect.The No vote will probably hold up and bottom out at 45% without the don't knows.I suspect going into the vote the Yes vote will be at 55%.That sounds tight for us but I don't think the polls are accurate at ground level.I think the Yes vote will be 60 plus on the day and the No vote in reality will be 40%.There is an attitude amongst no supporters that this is just another vote.While Yes its everything they have fought for all their lives.Apathy will not be a problem for this vote but some no people have no passion for the fight and won't turn up.The 20% who don't vote will be mainly can't be bothereds and no's.

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