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Posted
  • Location: Burghead, Moray.
  • Location: Burghead, Moray.

    Interesting to see tomorrow mornings newspapers - Do they go on the whole cataclysmic thing? Or is it - Better Together reach new low in scaremongering?

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    BBC Scotland are being monitored at the moment. So what do they do they put a picture of a Union flag with the words :" Independence would be Cataclysmic" as their lead story. They have not referenced the i.e :"George Robertson" says or explained that it refers to Trident/defence. The headline is deliberate and is used to rubbish independence completely. BBC Scotland are now fully paid up members of the No Campaign and this is the latesfear tactic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest on this.

     

    http://eveningharold.com/2014/04/08/scottish-independence-will-bring-voldemort-back-claims-lord-robertson/

     

    “Scottish independence will bring Voldemort back†claims Lord Robertson
     
    In a truly apocalyptic speech given in the United States former defence secretary and Nato chief Lord Robertson claimed that Voldemort would rise again if Scotland becomes independent. Citing “forces of darkness†and “cataclysmic†effects Lord Robertson warned that life as we know it would end if the union between England and Scotland is rent asunder.
     
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I rather liked this.

     

    In lives rememberd.

     

    Margo MacDonald

     

    Don Evans Writes:

    Shortly after her expulsion from the Scottish National Party. Margot MacDonald in a television interview was asked why she was so unpopular within the party. Without even the flicker of a smile her gallus and wonderful reply remains ever with me: “It is because I am the only one who can count to twenty without taking my shoes and socks off.â€

     

    Needless to say, the interviewer took some time to compose himself before moving on to the next question.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    BBC Scotland are being monitored at the moment. So what do they do they put a picture of a Union flag with the words :" Independence would be Cataclysmic" as their lead story. They have not referenced the i.e :"George Robertson" says or explained that it refers to Trident/defence. The headline is deliberate and is used to rubbish independence completely. BBC Scotland are now fully paid up members of the No Campaign and this is the latesfear tactic.

    Even though I am in favour of the union, I must despair at some of the spin and journalism here. Seriously awful media bias from an establishment which is supposed to be impartial.

    The story should really really "George Robertson throws his toys out of the pram due to possibly losing his cushy lifestyle after Scottish independence"

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I just read Mr Robertsons speech, it was rather over the top and theatrical. Is he officially part of Better Together or just someone shooting their mouth off . Or wanting to change career and appear on stage? Apparently the stunned crowd just managed to get out in time before the Gates of Hell opened up!

     

    If he's not part of Better Together then theres really not much to stop ex-politicians etc saying what they like, if he is then someone needs to crack the whip.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    I am afraid this is the next phase of the no campaign Nick.They said they were going to get big hitters in.George allegedly is a big hitter.All those years dealing with foreign countries and his powers of diplomacy are to insult and embarrass his own nation.Its now Scotland's job to save the western world from terrorists as well as to save England from itself.Christ we do a hell of a lot of charity work! I am also afraid that this is going to get really nasty on the no side.Darling is playing the victim card.The nasty nats are bullying him as they are bigoted and racist.This is the default position of someone losing an argument.Try and discredit your opposition.Now if I or anyone else on the yes side defends themselves we are trying to bully the unionists.You can't have a reasoned debate.Is Scotland unique in the world as the only small nation that couldn't possibly be independent.What is wrong with Scots that don't want to be run from London? Think about the way they treated the Irish they demeaned and discredited them as well as starving them.They saw ghandi as a terrorist.This is the British fair play which is the biggest urban myth ever created!

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I am afraid this is the next phase of the no campaign Nick.They said they were going to get big hitters in.George allegedly is a big hitter.All those years dealing with foreign countries and his powers of diplomacy are to insult and embarrass his own nation.Its now Scotland's job to save the western world from terrorists as well as to save England from itself.Christ we do a hell of a lot of charity work! I am also afraid that this is going to get really nasty on the no side.Darling is playing the victim card.The nasty nats are bullying him as they are bigoted and racist.This is the default position of someone losing an argument.Try and discredit your opposition.Now if I or anyone else on the yes side defends themselves we are trying to bully the unionists.You can't have a reasoned debate.Is Scotland unique in the world as the only small nation that couldn't possibly be independent.What is wrong with Scots that don't want to be run from London? Think about the way they treated the Irish they demeaned and discredited them as well as starving them.They saw ghandi as a terrorist.This is the British fair play which is the biggest urban myth ever created!

     

    I'm slightly puzzled here. There is no urban myth of fair play  regarding the treatment of the Irish, and particularly the famine, which was nothing short of genocide by the British establishment as anyone with a smidgin of knowledge of history knows. If one wants to be more up to date you could include the atrocities in Kenya in the 50s which is still being covered up. I'm reminded of Oscar:

     

    Set in the stormy Northern sea,

    Queen of these restless fields of tide,

    England! what shall men say of thee,

    Before whose feet the world's divide?

     

    There really is no need to over egg the pudding with flowery rhetoric otherwise people might start quoting Hamlet.

    Edited by knocker
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    http://nationalcollective.com/2014/04/07/10-reasons-internationalists-support-scottish-independence/

    Dear Mr Robertson, I have a few questions to ask...see link above.

    How can the UK Government justify spending a 100 billion on nukes, when people are visiting food banks to survive.... disgraceful.

    The placard (in the picture on the front page of the link above) proclaiming to spend the 100 billion on sweeties instead of nukes, made me smile. Well at least commerce and dentists will do well in an iScotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Even though I am in favour of the union, I must despair at some of the spin and journalism here. Seriously awful media bias from an establishment which is supposed to be impartial.

    The story should really really "George Robertson throws his toys out of the pram due to possibly losing his cushy lifestyle after Scottish independence"

     

    Watching BBC Breakfast this morning, when the regional news was announced I immediately thought, "so, what's today's scare story?" and I wasn't to be disappointed when they kicked off with "Energy bills could rise if Scotland votes yes to independence".

     

    Now there's a certain degree of truth behind that headline, at least in that the UK as a whole would be best served by a joint energy market (would it even be possible to 'split' it given the current infrastructure?). The news headline though is highly questionable. Why not "rUK could see lights go out if Scotland votes for Independence" or a more neutral "Energy deal important for Scotland and rUK post Independence"?

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Except Scotland is a net exporter of energy. 5 million people use a lot less energy than 58 million people. I would argue that our bills will go down or stay the same. I heard the energy secretary on this morning virtually threatening not to buy energy from an independent Scotland. It's their loss we will sell it to some other country in the future. I would be seriously worried if I lived in England and Wales about future energy costs.Then again it's just more pre referendum campaign tactics he wouldn't actually do it following a yes vote.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Except Scotland is a net exporter of energy. 5 million people use a lot less energy than 58 million people. I would argue that our bills will go down or stay the same. I heard the energy secretary on this morning virtually threatening not to buy energy from an independent Scotland. It's their loss we will sell it to some other country in the future. I would be seriously worried if I lived in England and Wales about future energy costs.Then again it's just more pre referendum campaign tactics he wouldn't actually do it following a yes vote.

     

    Scotland is a massive net exporter of energy, even if North Sea oil production slumps we're still a net exporter. If we're talking purely in terms of electricity then we run at a decent surplus. It is pure bluff by the unionists that rUK wouldn't buy electricity from an independent Scotland. The rUK is a net importer of energy and can't afford to be picky who it gets its electricity from.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    I heard the energy secretary on this morning virtually threatening not to buy energy from an independent Scotland. It's their loss we will sell it to some other country in the future.

     

    I don't think he quite understands how a 'free market economy' works then does he? I can't say I'm 100% clued up on the energy market but surely if all the energy producers/retailers are private companies they can buy from whomever they please? Is the National Grid public or private? I'd expect the latter given the previous rush to sell off anything of value.

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I think the problem when people make these over the top speeches is that even if there are some decent points made this will get lost.

     

    I saw George Robertson on Newsnight Scotland last night and thought he looked a bit more reasonable however I think the use of cataclysmic just doesn't resonate with the public. If he had said there will be be major repercussions that would have been fine, I thought the Mr Kay who was interviewed last is really what you want to see in terms of making points in a calm reasonable way.

     

    He criticized both Yes and No, I think his view that Westminster shouldn't have completely ruled out a currency union before negotiations started was fair and also his view that both sides might be bluffing on certain issues,  interestingly he said the SNP position on the debt threat was untenable, but he was spot on with why you would vote for Independence, as he said it has to be on identity and a more view of the social aspects of this and not economics because he didn't see that much changing either way economically.

     

    One thing that I thought Mr Robertson said which was missed because of the rhetoric was Scotlands position in NATO Nicola Sturgeon is completely wrong with her comparisons between Denmark and Scotland, the former accepts nuclear weapons and is happy to be under that umbrella of protection, the SNP is anti-nuclear and wants nothing to do with them.

     

    I'm not sure really how much people care about NATO, I doubt anyone will be trying to invade Scotland anytime soon so in or out I don't think too many people will be losing sleep over this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    I appreciate your point Nick. However the SNP had a democratic vote on staying with NATO. The vote carried and that's democracy. The SNP want to help the world get rid of nuclear weapons. However sometimes it is better to try and change things from within than shouting outside the barricades. I am not happy with NATO but it might not always be pro nuclear, if good countries can try and make cohesive arguments from within it's organisation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    NATO will always be pro-nuclear, there's no way the US, UK or France would ever give up their nukes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    NATO will always be pro-nuclear, there's no way the US, UK or France would ever give up their nukes.

     

    Of course they won't. Once the genie is out of the bottle you can't put it back again. In any case I for one was glad to have them around during the Cold War. As Oppenheimer said:

     

    "The atomic bomb made the prospect of future war unendurable. It has led us up those last few steps to the mountain pass; and beyond there is a different country"
     
    We are in that different country.. 
    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Not really the middle east and Korea are more unstable than they ever were. Also closer to home The Ukraine is troubled and Russia is making waves again. Nuclear weapons might prevent world wars but the small wars going on all over the world are not prevented by having nukes. Nuclear weapons are immoral and nothing anyone can say can change that. There is something horribly wrong about humans that makes them want to build weapons that could be used to destroy themselves.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    2 new polls out today.
     
    Panelbase
     
    Latest (fieldwork ended 9th):
    40% Y
    45% N
    15% DK
     
    47Y/53N excluding DK
     
    If you & your family would be better off? 
     
    53% Likely to vote Yes 
    37% Unlikely
     
    59% Likely / 41% Unlikely excluding DK
     
    That should worry the pro-union camp quite a bit. Shows the extend of 'soft No' well. 
     
    ------
     
    Survation
     
    Slightly before above (fieldwork ended 7th):
     
    37%Y
    47%N
    16%DK
     
    44Y/56N excluding DK
     
    VI figures from this one (should be close to what is finally reported - I've extracted from cross-tabs):
     
    EDIT Actual figures released: I wasn't far off.
     
    Scottish Parliament constituency vote
    SNP: 45%
    Labour: 32%
    Con 14%
    Lib Dem: 6%
    Other: 4%
     
    Scottish Parliament list vote
     
    SNP: 41%
    Labour: 25%
    Con: 12%
    Lib Dem: 9%
    Green: 7%
    UKIP: 4%
    Other: 1.9%
     
    European election
    SNP: 39%
    Labour: 30%
    Con: 13%
    UKIP: 7%
    Lib Dem: 6%
    Green: 4%
     
    Westminster election
    SNP: 40%
    Labour: 34%
    Con: 15%
    Lib Dem: 6%
     
    EU Result (MEPs / % share of MEPs), as per all recent polls:
    3 (+1) / 50% SNP
    2 (nc) / 33% Lab
    1 (nc) / 17% Con
     
    So decent enough news for Yes and for the SNP electorally (Westminster under FPTP would see huge SNP gains with possible Labour wipe-out). Confirm recent Y/N tightening is not a blip.
     
    May is when we can look for sudden shifts in Y/N appearing. UKIP are on for second if not first place in England with the Tory + UKIP share >50%:
     
     
    Nothing the pro-union campaign can do to hide that huge stinker coming their way. Will send a clear message to Scotland with the gulf in cross-border voting patterns growing ever larger.
     
    Here's the conservative Y/N poll of polls latest. Excluding DK and includes all of the polls, even those which favour no (e.g. MORI and Yougov) due to flawed methodology.
     
    Posted Image
     
    Yes ostensibly still have a good bit of work to do but are getting there steadily it would seem.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    Westminster election

    SNP: 40%
    Labour: 34%
    Con: 15%
    Lib Dem: 6%

     

    Those numbers seem far more realistic than the Populus poll I shared on here the other day. Although I'd be surprised if the SNP finish as many as six points ahead of Labour.

     

    Bish

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    John Curtice described it as the Yes vote maybe stalling at the final hurdle. This doesn't take into account that there are now more don't knows. 16%. We have seen from history at the devolution vote that the majority of don't knows went to yes. There is a reason for this if you are a definate no then you don't lean over to don't know. It's only when you are open to change that you are a don't know. Change is not no it's yes. so the majority of don't knows are thinking about voting yes!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Those numbers seem far more realistic than the Populus poll I shared on here the other day. Although I'd be surprised if the SNP finish as many as six points ahead of Labour.

     

    Bish

     

    They tie in well with my monitoring of the SNP share of the UK total from which you can infer share in Scotland better than subsets as the national share is at least partly weighted. I have low 40's here conservatively.

     

    Clearly the electorate back the SNP as evidenced by them continuing to do well for Holyrood. The vote for Westminster is complicated by the fact that at best  ~32% of the voting electorate support Labour now. That has been the case way back to before 2007 as you can see in Holyrood data. The question is whether a section would do what they did in 2010 and vote Labour tactically to try and stop the Tories. It didn't work in 2010 so why do it again? 

     

    The polls have never shown the SNP on this level for UKGE's before - this only happened post 2011. It does suggest that those who voted Labour at UK level (in 2010 and to an extent in 2005) not because they supported them, but rather they were seen as slightly more palatable than the Tories, are now thinking not to do that again.

     

    Certainly the evidence suggests that if it is a No vote in September, the SNP should do very well in UK and Holyrood elections. This would make sense; if people want more powers for the Scottish parliament then SNP are the best bet.

     

    Labour were given a shot at this and failed to live up to expectations; hence the losses in 2007 and then 2011 and a failure to recover in any meaningful sense for 7 years now.

     

    What would be hilarious is if there was a No in September and the SNP took most of Scotland's Westminster seats and actually held the balance of power. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    John Curtice described it as the Yes vote maybe stalling at the final hurdle

     

    LOL. John kept saying nothing much was happening for like a year as the gap closed further and further.

     

    If changes are only on the order of a point or two a month, you can easily say 'well, no change on the last month or two within error - looks like things have stalled'.

     

    Anyway, as far as I can see, he's not commented on the latest poll - the panelbase 40Y/45N is more recent than the Record's survation which he blogs about on WST.

     

    And mind this is the man that predicted a stonking Labour win for 2011...

     

    Although I'll forgive him a bit for that - they did have a 15 point lead which reversed in 6 weeks at most just ahead of the election. He should take care in predicting the referendum based the 2011 experience.

     

    John is a unionist and while he is fairly even handed, you can tell he's biased. We slips like where he says stuff like 'Alex Salmond has a fight on his hands' give the game away amongst other slight spins of data in favour of the union.

     

    The main issue think for him is that, while he's worked in Scotland a long time now, he's an Oxford graduate from the South of England and I still think he struggles to 'get' Scotland sometimes. People tend to see things through the prism of their own national identity / politics and when you read his SASS stuff in particular this comes across. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
    Clearly the electorate back the SNP as evidenced by them continuing to do well for Holyrood. The vote for Westminster is complicated by the fact that at best  ~32% of the voting electorate support Labour now. That has been the case way back to before 2007 as you can see in Holyrood data. The question is whether a section would do what they did in 2010 and vote Labour tactically to try and stop the Tories. It didn't work in 2010 so why do it again? 

     

    The polls have never shown the SNP on this level for UKGE's before - this only happened post 2011. It does suggest that those who voted Labour at UK level (in 2010 and to an extent in 2005) not because they supported them, but rather they were seen as slightly more palatable than the Tories, are now thinking not to do that again.

     

     

    There will probably be a number of factors that come into play for a Westmister GE. As you say, will people continue to vote 'tactically' for Labour? A big factor in that will be how the polls are sitting just before the day i.e if Labour don't look likely to be in with a chance of at least forming a coalition then anyone thinking of voting tactically will more than likely choose the SNP.

     

    One of the other big factors, irrespective of the above, is that Labour Party as of today are not the same Labour Party as 10-20 yrs ago, the Labour Party that people in Scotland voted for in droves. Labour have taken a big jump to the Right in political terms and I think that has slowly been filtering through into reduced support in Scotland. People have begun to realise that what you'll get from a Labour Westminster government isn't going to look much different from that of a Tory government so the incentive to vote for Labour to keep the Tories out is much reduced.

     

    The fact that the SNP have had a long period in government in the Scottish Parliament, haven't f'cked it up, have introduced or continued to support popular policies (free tuition, prescriptions etc), and have a high satisfaction rating all helps to boost their credibility overall.

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Fitch have updated their views on the possible impact on the RuK in the event of a Yes vote..

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26974826

     

    The most important part of this whole report is the last line where they say it would be in the RuK best interest for Scottish Independence to be a success. They also say that they would expect Scotland to take their share of national debt by paying directly to the RuK Exchequer.

     

    This is an absolutely clear sign that Fitch fully expect a currency union.

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