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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    "This referendum has every chance of leaving a large swathe of Scottish voters deeply unhappy and this IMO is the biggest problem going forward regardless of the result."

    And this conundrum or theory can only exist in Scotland? What of every other election - please, do spill the beans Posted Image

    I never said it did but its the finite nature of the vote that's totally different from a general election. I thought that would be pretty obvious! you can change a government every 5 years but this decision will have huge ramifications for decades to come.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    On the other side if its a Yes and the currency union No wasn't a bluff and the EU membership takes longer then it will get rather acrimonious

    Actually if it pans out like this and Westminster starts playing silly beggars then there is likely to be a hardening of support behind the Scottish Government, rather than people turning on it and getting acrimonious over the vote having been Yes.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    LOL

     

    Posted Image

     

    Crowd-funding at it's best.

     

    Looking forward to the latest detailed Wings poll results which should start coming out tomorrow. Donations well spent!

     

    BTW, is tomorrow currency or EU? I know Thursday is normally border posts etc, but it's hard to follow recently. Too much blinking.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Well the Telegraph's gone with indy Scotland can't keep the lights on.... if it was meant to be satire it would hilarious!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/10747063/Vote-No-Amec-urges-Scots-amid-worries-over-North-Sea.html

    The UK as a whole has the least capacity buffer it's had for decades in terms of meeting peak electricity demand, while Scotland exports over a 1/4 of what it produces via the interconnector to England (some also goes via an interconnector to Northern Ireland).

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Actually if it pans out like this and Westminster starts playing silly beggars then there is likely to be a hardening of support behind the Scottish Government, rather than people turning on it and getting acrimonious over the vote having been Yes.

    I disagree, the current Yes stance is EU membership won't be a problem and there will be a currency union, if those run into problems no one can blame the rUK.

     

    The Scottish voters wanted certainty at least on some of the issues before voting, Westminster has clearly said No to a currency union so how can they get blamed for playing silly beggars, the buck stops with the SNP. If its not a bluff and voters went with Yes thinking that was the case then really I don't see how they can suddenly turn round and accuse Westminster of moving the goalposts.

     

    The ire will be aimed at the SNP for promising things out of their control, whoever in the SNP decided it was a good idea to start threatening on the debt or implying that the rUK should just lump it and accept a CU should be given  their P45.

     

    That may well have played well to some Scottish voters but went down terribly in the rUK.

     

    The better way forward from the SNP is not to have taken the bait, simply say we're disappointed but we will make a strong case to the rUK public that a currency union is good for them and Scotland.

     

    Instead they have somehow got the rUK public agreeing with Osborne and co, who would have thought that possible, did no one in the Yes think that threatening on the debt or saying the rUK public shouldn't have a vote on a CU might end up in this backlash.

     

    As a neutral the Yes has done well but on the issue of currency the wheels have come off.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    I disagree, the current Yes stance is EU membership won't be a problem and there will be a currency union, if those run into problems no one can blame the rUK.

    The UK Government could have already asked the question, giving us a definitive answer from the EU on the way this would proceed. The UK government refuses to do so. 

    As a neutral the Yes has done well but on the issue of currency the wheels have come off.

    I'd argue the currency issue has knocked the wheels off the Better Together wagon, they've shot themselves in the foot with potentially the biggest weapon in their arsenal. Yes vote up on the back of it and even fewer people now believe a word the UK government says on Scotland, and it looks like it might have been a tipping point where at least chunks of the MSM turned on Better Together.The scenario of a currency union being denied post YES seems from what I've seen and heard to be widely regarded as 'Westminster cutting off it's nose to spite it's face'. However if they persist with this line, then expect to see 'A Debt Free Scotland' becoming a campaigning point in the later stages of the campaign. It's not really a threat, it's economic reality. No Sterling Union, means no Sterling Debt, how can it be any other way when a huge chunk of the debt is owed to the Sterling Central Bank which could magically ease away the rest with queasy money. Yet Scotland would have to pay it with 'real' money because it has no access to that Central Bank. Never going to be accepted. Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I disagree, the current Yes stance is EU membership won't be a problem and there will be a currency union, if those run into problems no one can blame the rUK.

     

    The Scottish voters wanted certainty at least on some of the issues before voting, Westminster has clearly said No to a currency union so how can they get blamed for playing silly beggars, the buck stops with the SNP. If its not a bluff and voters went with Yes thinking that was the case then really I don't see how they can suddenly turn round and accuse Westminster of moving the goalposts.

     

    The ire will be aimed at the SNP for promising things out of their control, whoever in the SNP decided it was a good idea to start threatening on the debt or implying that the rUK should just lump it and accept a CU should be given  their P45.

     

    That may well have played well to some Scottish voters but went down terribly in the rUK.

     

    The better way forward from the SNP is not to have taken the bait, simply say we're disappointed but we will make a strong case to the rUK public that a currency union is good for them and Scotland.

     

    Instead they have somehow got the rUK public agreeing with Osborne and co, who would have thought that possible, did no one in the Yes think that threatening on the debt or saying the rUK public shouldn't have a vote on a CU might end up in this backlash.

     

    As a neutral the Yes has done well but on the issue of currency the wheels have come off.

    Nick,

     

    Before Osborne & Balls came out and said there would not be a currency union no matter what, the RuK electorate were in favour of it, only after the announcement did this change. It is the RuK politicians who are to blame for this argument, not the SNP, who I actually think have done quite well in keeping the line that it will happen, because it is in everyones interest for it to happen.

     

    Also, their bluff has been called. The Yes campaign have requested that the Permanent Secretary to The Treasury provide the paperwork in relation to his announcement so that it can be democratically challenged, and they have received nothing, because there is nothing to provide, this whole debacle is a con.

     

    As asked by me numerous times before, perhaps you can help....

     

    If an Independent Scotland is not party to a sterling currency union then how does it take its share of the debt if it has a different currency?, Remember to bear in mind, that a 1/3 of the UK debt is actually to itself from the Bank Of England. And that 1/3 could be written off at a stroke of a pen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    Latest Populus polling re GE2015 voting intentions:

     

    Labour 41%

    SNP 30%

    Conservatives 20%

    UKIP 3%

    Greens 2%

    Lib Dems 2%

     

    Three things stand out from these numbers........

     

    1) Can it really be the case that the Tories and UKIP comprise of nearly a quarter of the Scottish vote combined? Highly unlikely in my opinion.

    2) The Lib Dems really are in deep, serious trouble both sides of the border.

    3) If Scotland is indeed on the verge of voting for independence, surely we would be seeing better voting numbers for the SNP and the Greens? I know SS will (correctly) point out that the independence debate isn't purely an SNP thing, but they are nonetheless the prime cheerleaders for the movement.

     

    Bish

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Latest Populus polling re GE2015 voting intentions:

     

    Labour 41%

    SNP 30%

    Conservatives 20%

    UKIP 3%

    Greens 2%

    Lib Dems 2%

     

    Bish

    Just goes to show how pragmatic the Scots are, the Labour vote would naturally increase as the SNP loses votes to them, to try and keep the Tories out.

     

    Interestingly, the latest Panelbase vote had 27% of Labour voters voting yes and 12% of Tories.

     

    Labour 27% of 41 = 11%

    Tories 12% of 20 =  3%

    SNP = 30%

    Greens = 2%

     

    Throw in a smidgen of Lib Dem votes and the total is not far of the 47% likely to vote Yes from the Panelbase.

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest Populus polling re GE2015 voting intentions:

     

    Labour 41%

    SNP 30%

    Conservatives 20%

    UKIP 3%

    Greens 2%

    Lib Dems 2%

     

    Three things stand out from these numbers........

     

    1) Can it really be the case that the Tories and UKIP comprise of nearly a quarter of the Scottish vote combined? Highly unlikely in my opinion.

    2) The Lib Dems really are in deep, serious trouble both sides of the border.

    3) If Scotland is indeed on the verge of voting for independence, surely we would be seeing better voting numbers for the SNP and the Greens? I know SS will (correctly) point out that the independence debate isn't purely an SNP thing, but they are nonetheless the prime cheerleaders for the movement.

     

    Bish

     

    This is a Scotland subset of 113 people.

     

    It's not weighted to the Scottish demographic and even if it was, the error in precision (not accuracy) would be 9.2% due to sample size. Probably double that or even more as the sample isn't weighted.

     

    Meaningless in other words.

     

    Best thing you can do with UK polls is take the SNP share of the UK total and divide by 8.3 then *100. 

     

    3% = 36%

    4% = 48% in Scotland

     

    And average these for a lot of polls not giving bias to any pollster (i.e. you don't average 5 populous polls and one MORI, there you'd average 5 the five populous polls first then average that value with MORI).

     

    I have low 40's for SNP and low 30's for Labour doing this (Tories ~17, libs 7). Not entirely different from Holyrood VI where the SNP sit on similar numbers to 2011.

     

    ---

     

    On the subject of betting odds. They've really started to shift recently - been slow and steady but noticeable jump recently. Probably good polls for Yes.

     

    Pity we can't get patterns for Scotland alone. They'd be based on local perceptions rather than being likely outweighed by what people in the rUK are feeling.

     

    The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

     

     

    ------------

     

    Not in the most recent polls, 27-30% of 2011 Labour voters are now backing indy. Also 22-25% of Lib Demers.

     

    I would be scared if the SNP got like >50% of the vote. No party should get those sort of numbers.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    In the meantime, enjoy this from the Minitrue

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/fine-tuning-the-news/

     

    Posted Image

     

    Wings poll has stuff on trust in the mainstream media about indyref. Suffice to say it's not looking good for the papers...

     

    First articles should be out later today once Panelbase have given them the ok.

     

    EDIT.

     

    Also, fact of the day.

     

    Did you know that Labour's Lords Foulkes and Roberston voted to abolish the House of Lords in 1980?

     

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1980/may/06/house-of-lords-abolition

     

    Now of course they enjoy its fine dining and expenses.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Nick,

     

    Before Osborne & Balls came out and said there would not be a currency union no matter what, the RuK electorate were in favour of it, only after the announcement did this change. It is the RuK politicians who are to blame for this argument, not the SNP, who I actually think have done quite well in keeping the line that it will happen, because it is in everyones interest for it to happen.

     

    Also, their bluff has been called. The Yes campaign have requested that the Permanent Secretary to The Treasury provide the paperwork in relation to his announcement so that it can be democratically challenged, and they have received nothing, because there is nothing to provide, this whole debacle is a con.

     

    As asked by me numerous times before, perhaps you can help....

     

    If an Independent Scotland is not party to a sterling currency union then how does it take its share of the debt if it has a different currency?, Remember to bear in mind, that a 1/3 of the UK debt is actually to itself from the Bank Of England. And that 1/3 could be written off at a stroke of a pen.

    I'm not saying theres no blame to share round, the No is far from perfect and I've said several times on here that their campaign is too negative. Whats happened is all water under the bridge now, even if the three main parties cooked up the Treasury paperwork to justify their stance they will all go into the next election with No to a currency union in their manifestos.

     

    The issue is now the rUK have wind of being LOLR the voters don't like that idea, if a currency union plan can be hatched together that removes that LOLR or a way of making things a bit more equal in the minds of the rUK then there might be a way for Westminster to row back from their position.

     

    Indeed why don't we just change a Currency Union to a Currency Arrangement, the CU is now politically toxic, personally I think a CU would be bad for Scotland, Westminster will ask too much in return and the SNP won't be able to sell it to Scottish voters, nevermind selling it to the rUK.

     

    Scotland is perfectly capable of having its own currency and actually I think most in the SNP agree, a Currency Union short term arrangement won't wash with the markets or business which is a problem, and because Scotland could pull out at anytime there is a level of uncertainty from day one.

     

    I can't imagine a single independence supporter from being put off this by a Scottish currency, I think its a positive and means that Scotland has full control over its own economic destiny.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Back to odds.

     

    I've found a new source of data to monitor (thanks Shedhead)!

     

    Check this out. Most shortening on Yes and drifting on No I've seen since I started monitoring the other week (I mean in terms of odds changing in concert).

     

    Posted Image

     

    Initial poll data on trust in media etc on Wings.

     

    Papers and Radio taking a bit hit in terms of trust. Newspapers not a surprise (see Scotsman minitrue above). BBC Radio might take note (news / politics stuff is largely confined to the BBC).

     

    Here:

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/an-inexplicable-coincidence/

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    It's not very often I'll share a post from ConHome, but this is a good article:

     

    Scottish independence would be a disaster for Labour, but a death blow to the Conservative Party

    When Nigel Farage trounced Nick Clegg in their debate last week, some of the loudest cheers must have come from SNP headquarters.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/04/scottish-independence-would-be-a-disaster-for-labour-but-a-death-blow-to-the-conservative-party.html

     

    Bish

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Just looking at the initial Panelbase results and this certainly shows the big differences between the genders, it mirrors the general trend of all the polling there. Women clearly for No and men for Yes.

     

    We also see age being important over 55 and its a clear No, the Yes leads across the 35-54 age group, theres a huge chasm between males and females across the 16 -34 age group.  It's amazing really to see such a huge difference in the genders.

     

    Now we can put some of this down to risk taking behaviour  which is proven to be higher in males, because there is a large risk factor in the perception of some voters this is an important factor in this debate.

     

    I think we're also looking at masculinity, how the debate is effecting this, its a very interesting side angle to the Independence debate, in a sense the question of independence also can be seen on another level, strength, willing to take a chance, asserting oneself, also perhaps a need  in some men to have their masculinity re-affirmed.

     

    The Independence also keys into that tribalism factor, its very interesting overall, its really hard to find a similar vote where you would see such a divergence in gender voting intention.

     

    I think the Panelbase is pretty much in line with where I think the current situation is, I don't really buy into some accusations that its some wild outlier, this gripe is normally thrown out by a side who don't like the poll results.

     

    The 6 point gap looks reasonable given the background in terms of where the debates been going for the last few weeks, its been a better few weeks for the Yes side, I think we'll continue to see these undulations going forward.

     

    I'm still wondering whether we'll see some curveball going forward that could deliver some big momentum to either side, a knock out blow?

     

    The only thing I would say and something that I have mentioned before is the vote screener, this poll as with some of the other pollsters kick out anyone who is below 8-10 on the intention to vote, this is a blunt tool, we need to be seeing the vote screener a bit more robust, the problem here is voter perception between lets say 6 or 7 out of 10 compared to 8.

     

    An interesting angle to these polls is whether they are  focusing the voters mind on immediacy, its interesting that generally polls that use the immediacy as in you're voting tomorrow show bigger leads for No,the ones asking for a view on the September 18th have smaller leads.

     

    In terms of voter intention in terms of likelihood to vote heres what GALLUP does in the USA as the election gets closer , now of course we're talking about a referendum which means many of those questions aren't relevant but it just gives you an idea of the sorts of questions you can ask there.

     

    It's not perfect by any means as they were criticized for overplaying the Romney vote at the last USA election but just gives you an idea of the process, personally I think theres too many questions, other agencies used fewer questions and were closer to the mark but anyway heres the link:

     

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/how-gallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Jeez, fall asleep in a wee insignificant country and the next morning Scotland's a threat to the stability of the whole world.Posted Image 

     

    This from Lord 'I voted to abolish the HoL but now I'm a peer I've changed my views on this and oh, Scotland has no culture BTW ' Robertson.

     

    Scottish independence: Lord Robertson says Yes vote 'would be cataclysmic'
     
    The former secretary general of Nato has said that Scottish independence would be cataclysmic for the West in an era of international turmoil.
    Speaking in the US, Lord Robertson said a "debilitating divorce" after a "Yes" vote in September would threaten the stability of the wider world.

     

     

    I'm not worried; we've got Gordon Brown. He can come out of retirement to save the world again surely?
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Yes it's all getting v desperate from the "No" campaign, or should i say even more desperate.

    I think if i was in a country as a voter and i was an "undecided" i'd be getting so hacked off with the "No" campaign i'd think i'd be tempted to vote "Yes".

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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26933998

    This is ridiculous, a non story from a former head (we have had one of those before) being aired by the BBC. The BBC are making themselves look very foolish and reducing their credibility not just in Scotland, but across the world. Can you imagine everyone in Europe thinking European stability is going to end if Scotland gains independence....We need a sensible debate about Scottish independence not hysterical scare stories. Incidentally, no mention still from the BBC of the latest Yes polling figures.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Laughed in disbelief when i read that.

     

    I knew the No campaign were going to ramp up Project Fear even more, but to now come out with end of the world statements like that is nothing short of embarrasing.

     

    Surely, no intelligent Scots are going to believe this nonsense?

     

    The question now to ask, is how far are the No campaign going to push these type of lies?

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    Posted
  • Location: Burghead, Moray.
  • Location: Burghead, Moray.

    Wow - I didn't know Scotland was so important to the rest of the world.  Does the G8 become the G9 after a YES vote?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Who'd have thought it, our little country on the edge of Europe with a population of a mere 5 million has the power to cause 'cataclysmic' damage to 'the West' by voting for independence. Maybe now that we know we wield such great power we should be asking for a bit more than mere independence <evil laugh>....

     

    In all honesty, if this is the best the 'No' side can come up with then they've completely lost their marbles.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    In short, swearing is not big or clever George Robertson and everything he stands for, oh wait - as a Labour politician he doesn't actually stand for anything!

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    Certainly a 'drift' towards Yes with the bookies across the last week, but as yet nothing seismic..... http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

     

    Lads who were 1/6, firstly cut to 1/5 and are now 2/9 (1/4.5), so we now maybe starting to see some build of momentum.

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Maybe now that we know we wield such great power we should be asking for a bit more than mere independence <evil laugh>....

     

     

    Aye, I always wanted to be a bond villain hell bent on world destruction. Seems all I need to do to achieve that is vote Yes.

     

    Muhaha!

     

    ---------

     

    Anyway, out of milk. Going to have to take my coffee black.

     

    #cataclysmic

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I feel strangely empowered this morning.

     

    Better Together are really going to have to change their message soon, they must see that their constant "cannae do this, cannae do that" attitude is not playing with the electorate who simply do not believe them.

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