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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I wonder if the bookies predicted the landslide SNP victory in 2011 Shedhead.1/3 odds in favour of Ian Gray(labour) being the first minister were predicted only months before the result. Bookies bets on elections are sometimes predictable in England but in Scotland they can predict nothing with accuracy.

     

    The polls did regardless of the bookies, after April 9th the next 6 polls had the SNP in the 40-46% range.

     

    I still believe my initial prediction will prove correct. The Yes camp will be in the 42-44% range so a relatively small defeat but i'd say that actually that's higher than it should be, the negativity of the 'In' campaign has been like chopping a toe off every 10 minutes during a marathon.

     

    There's no doubt to me that the majority of Scottish do feel Scottish first, but there are also sufficient number who do feel British even if British second and i'm skeptical as to whether that will ever change.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The Yes camp will be in the 42-44% range 

     

    It's already at the upper end of your range and that's the most conservative poll of polls including outliers for No such as Progressive Scottish Opinion (non BPC) and flawed base MORI + Yougov.

     

    The most recent polls from panelbase and ICM - where we don't have any obvious reasons to question methodology or base - gave 48% and 46% Yes respectively (excluding DK).

     

    Also, no account taken of the surge for Yes you get ahead of indy referenda as people get caught up in the emotional aspect of it. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    Why do you think the pro-union campaign are panicking? They lost their 'solid >60% so we can put this to bed for a while' quite a while ago now.

     

    Jeez, they are officially having 'crisis meetings' now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It's already at the upper end of your range and that's the most conservative poll of polls including outliers for No such as Progressive Scottish Opinion (non BPC) and flawed base MORI + Yougov.

     

    The most recent polls from panelbase and ICM - where we don't have any obvious reasons to question methodology or base - gave 48% and 46% Yes respectively (excluding DK).

     

    Also, no account taken of the surge for Yes you get ahead of indy referenda as people get caught up in the emotional aspect of it. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    Why do you think the pro-union campaign are panicking? They lost their 'solid >60% so we can put this to bed for a while' quite a while ago now.

     

    Jeez, they are officially having 'crisis meetings' now.

     

    It's already at the upper end of your range and that's the most conservative poll of polls including outliers for No such as Progressive Scottish Opinion (non BPC) and flawed base MORI + Yougov.

     

    The most recent polls from panelbase and ICM - where we don't have any obvious reasons to question methodology or base - gave 48% and 46% Yes respectively (excluding DK).

     

    Also, no account taken of the surge for Yes you get ahead of indy referenda as people get caught up in the emotional aspect of it. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    Why do you think the pro-union campaign are panicking? They lost their 'solid >60% so we can put this to bed for a while' quite a while ago now.

     

    Jeez, they are officially having 'crisis meetings' now.

     

    I'm sticking with excluding the DK for the moment and going by the ICM for 2014, it's had a confirmed 37-39% Yes so far this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I'm sticking with excluding the DK for the moment and going by the ICM for 2014, it's had a confirmed 37-39% Yes so far this year.

     

    That did exclude the DK. ICM has 45% Yes for average of all three polls so far this year (excluding DK). 46% Yes in the post Osballs / latest one.

     

    Up 5% (exlcuding DK) on September 2013.

     

    -----------

     

    Yeslive Motherwell is on tonight.

     

    Pity Bob Crow's not there to speak in support of an iScotland; I'd have liked to hear his speech.

     

     

    Posted Image

     

    http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive

     

    --------

     

    EDIT

     

    Anyway. Watch yersels the morn...

     

     

    Its gonnae be hard the morra deciding which piece of pish is an April Fool and what is the latest BT press release

     

    So true...Posted Image 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    Ha! This had me chuntering disapprovingly for a couple of minutes this morning..............until I realised today's date Posted Image

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving-on-right-independence-road-scheme

     

    Bish

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Ha! This had me chuntering disapprovingly for a couple of minutes this morning..............until I realised today's date Posted Image

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving-on-right-independence-road-scheme

     

    Bish

     

    Are you sure that's a joke?

     

    The Sun six weeks ago:

     

     

    Posted Image

     

    I did warn people.Posted Image

     

     

    ---------------

     

    EDIT.

     

    This is good.

     

    https://www.itison.com/Edinburgh/deals/exclusive-salmond-vs-cameron-debate-tix

     

    Posted Image

     

    EXCLUSIVE EVENT : Â£8 instead of £100 for Salmond Vs Cameron in REFERENDUM RUMBLE - featuring Tag Team Sturgeon and Clegg - Live on Stirling Castle Esplanade featuring entertainment by David Bowie - 24th June at 13.14pm - save up to 92% Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    Are you sure that's a joke?

     

    The Sun six weeks ago:

     

    Posted Image

     

    I did warn people.Posted Image

     

    lol I must admit the first thing that popped into my head was "So Burnham was right all along!!!!" Posted Image

     

    Bish

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    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10735711/Alex-Salmond-to-replace-the-Queen-on-new-Scottish-pound-coin.html

     

    Alex Salmond to replace the Queen on new Scottish pound coin

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    The Scottish independence debate has been taken to a new level after plans were unveiled for Alex Salmond’s head to feature on Scottish pound coins.

     

    The plan, which would be introduced on April 1, 2015, would see the head of Scotland’s First Minister replace that of the Queen if the country votes for independence. Within months of a “yes†vote, all Scottish coins in circulation would be replaced with “Salmond Sterlingâ€.

     

    The designs were being honed at a facility funded by Sir Sean Connery.

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Wings has an interesting article by Eric Joyce of all people concerning Trident. Philip Hammond was recently in Washington and it is pretty obvious why. The US are concerned about the impact of a Yes vote on the independent nuclear deterant in Scotland. Hammond has already made noises talking about Trident being negotiated around currency union. He is being pressurisd by the US! This is the same man that denies he leaked the info about the currency union being a bluff ahem! What he understimates is that he will not be negotiating currency union as a trade off for keeping Trident. This is not a tradeable item like taxation or borrowing levels. The Scottish government have this as a point of principal to remove Trident. It's not on the table. If the RUK try and use this before agreeing a currency union then Scotland will either use Sterling without agreement or go it alone with their own currency. The RUK need a currency union so that Scotland takes its share of the debt. They will be courting Scotland toget the union but we might walk away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Wings has an interesting article by Eric Joyce of all people concerning Trident. Philip Hammond was recently in Washington and it is pretty obvious why. The US are concerned about the impact of a Yes vote on the independent nuclear deterant in Scotland. Hammond has already made noises talking about Trident being negotiated around currency union. He is being pressurisd by the US! This is the same man that denies he leaked the info about the currency union being a bluff ahem! What he understimates is that he will not be negotiating currency union as a trade off for keeping Trident. This is not a tradeable item like taxation or borrowing levels. The Scottish government have this as a point of principal to remove Trident. It's not on the table. If the RUK try and use this before agreeing a currency union then Scotland will either use Sterling without agreement or go it alone with their own currency. The RUK need a currency union so that Scotland takes its share of the debt. They will be courting Scotland toget the union but we might walk away.

     

    The more I think about it the more I realise that Trident is a major problem for the rUK if we get a Yes vote. After all, if Scotland walks away from the union, it walks away from the pound and it walks away from having nuclear subs parked up on its shores.

     

    Where would they go? At least once they were gone we could phone up Putin and see if he's in the market for a handy Atlantic base for his nuclear subs, ten year lease available at a decent price.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    What might be on the table though is the timetable for the removal of Trident.

     

    If the Ruk refuses a currency Union then the Scottish Government gives them a year to get it out, however, if the Ruk play ball, that timeframe could be extended to say 10-15 years?giving the RuK time to build a new submarine base at Barrow, Plymouth or Milford Haven.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    RNAD Coulport is the real problem for rUK. IMO the way trident is handled from the Scottish perspective should be to set a timetable that makes it least likely Trident is replaced, if that means they stay in Scotland a bit longer than they need to for purely safety reasons it could be worth it to consign this abomination to the dustbin of history.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    With regards the roads April Fool, the use of an N designation would have some merits because it would allow the possibility of an additional class of road between Motorway and all purpose trunk road (which can currently vary from anything from a windy 1920s alignment like a lot of the A82 to Motorway in all but name like the A720 City of Edinburgh Bypass).

    We could have something like:

    AX(M) Auto-Route under full M-way restrictions (Currently MX or AX(M)) {BLUE SIGNS]

    AX Auto Route (Grade separated dual carriageways except for occasional roundabouts. No at grade crossings of mainline.) [bLUE SIGNS]

    NX National Trunk Roads (Currently AX)[GREEN SIGNS]

    LX Significant Local roads (currently non primary A on white signs)

    BX As is.

    While it would make for a more logical designation to make existing A trunk roads N, and then the A could be used for "auto-routes" it would be cheaper and more straightforward to make the new class N signifying major National route. So the A9 when upgraded would be N9 and do away with the M so we would have N9(M) for the N9 where under full motorway restrictions.

    It would have economic benefits to have blue rather than green lines on the map linking Inverness to Perth, Inverness to Aberdeen and Aberdeen to Dundee and Dundee to Perth! Would require quite a lot of junction upgrades on the A90 which are much needed anyway to meet the criteria above.

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    The Trident issue regarding movement of Trident to England.Is not really an issue if it is decomishioned.They can move the sub's within 2 years to Devenport.However once they are out of Scotland its up to RUK if they want to waste billions on a replacement.Ultimately all Scotland is required to do is move them safely.After that its not Scotland's problem.The 15 year issue is a sneaky way of RUK keeping Trident live while organising a replacement.Its not going to happen!

    Edited by November13
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Great news about the increased voters registration, at least there will be no voters apathy in this vote..

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26845094

    For me though, one of the interesting facts in this report is the number of Scots living in England, around a six of the population have felt the need to move away from their homeland. A pretty shocking statistic for the No campaign.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Why do the MSM never make anything straightforward....

     

    Voter registration in Scotland is the highest it has ever been, as millions sign up to have their say in the independence referendum.

    With just under six months until polling day, an estimated 4.1 million people are now on the electoral roll.

    That's an increase of nearly 60,000 voters since December 2012.

    But the Electoral Commission says there is still work to do, especially in signing up 16 and 17-year-olds who are eligible to vote for the first time.

    So far, around 92,000 out of a possible 120,000 have added their names to the list.

     

    So I assume then that the 60,000 (+1.46%) increase since Dec 2012 doesn't include the 92,000 16 and 17yrs olds since 92k > 60k? So does that make an increase of 152,000 (3.7%) overall? If so is the overall figure now 4.1 million or 4.2 million??? [trots off in confused disgust...]

     

    The article make much of the drive to get 16 and 17 yrs olds registered, but nothing about the drive by campaign groups such as Radical Independence to get people in the poorer areas of Glasgow for instance to register. A group of people who are expected to be largely Yes and whom the polls will currently take little or no account of.

     

    Of course you've then got to get as many of those registered voters, on both sides, to actually vote on the day!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    The Scottish government have pledged to remove Trident within the first term of their government if they are elected. So within 5 years Trident is going.

    Here's what Scottish CND Say:

    Because there is nowhere for Trident to go, if the government of an independent Scotland insists that Trident is removed, then the UK will have no nuclear weapons. There are two implications of this. One is that the pro-nuclear lobby will be very interested in what happens. The second is that Scotland has an opportunity to make a significant impact on nuclear disarmament.

    We don’t need to be kept waiting. A second Scottish CND report, Disarming Trident, demonstrates how the government of an independent Scotland could insist that all nuclear weapons were deactivated within days and then removed from Scotland within two years. The Scottish government responded to this report saying, “We are firmly committed to the earliest possible withdrawal of Trident from Scotland .... The suggested timetable is a welcome indication of how quickly Trident could be removed once Scotland has the powers to decide its own defence and security policy.â€

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Surely the implication there is that the post-independence negotiations will not feature trident since trident is dependent on an SNP 2016 victory.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    But let's be honest from memory I can't think of one country where the party who negotiated independence didn't then form the government.So the odds are the SNP will be the first Government as Labour will implode for a couple of years.Its a no brainer up here Scottish Labour area shambles.So the chances are Trident will be removed after being decomishioned.This is another benefit of Scottish independence it will force Westminster's hand to disable their independent nuclear deterrent.They have no intention of doing it under the current set up.I think most folk on balance would welcome its removal and expense.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Surely the implication there is that the post-independence negotiations will not feature trident since trident is dependent on an SNP 2016 victory.

    Surely you are not suggesting that an Independent Scotland would retain nuclear weapons however was in charge?
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Surely you are not suggesting that an Independent Scotland would retain nuclear weapons however was in charge?

     

    Since Labour are in favour of nukes and they could win in 2016..

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Yes but the majority of Scottish MPs 80% at last count are anti nuclear.Labour London is not the same as Labour Scotland in terms of that issue.So an independent Labour party would be anti nuclear.Don't forget over 80% of Scots are anti nuclear.The weapons are there because Westminster outnumbers Scots MPs 101.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I really don't see Trident coming up as some bargaining chip, IMO it's a non-starter and I don't see how one could connect that with a currency union. This has been a central plank for the SNP and I think this is a red line issue.

     

    It might be a case of the Scottish government giving a bit more time for the rUK to find a home for Trident but I think there has to be a clear timeline when this will be off Scottish soil.

     

    There has been talk of some lease deal, similar to overseas bases in Cyprus but again this is a non-starter, no overseas territory houses UK nuclear weapons , it would make sense to have military co-operation between Scotland and the rUK but I can't see anyway that Scotland would accept some deal that leaves Trident in its current home with no exit date.

     

    Equally if indeed a referendum was needed for a currency union in the rUK why would voters be connecting Trident with this , it just doesn't make any sense, the sell to the rUK has to be economically not with Trident which needs vast amounts of money for an upgrade and how many people really want billions spent on this anyway.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Salmond has said Trident will be removed in first term of government.So within 5 years it will be gone.People can say what they want about the SNP.However they are one of the few parties who stick to their promises.Trident will go and that's that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.

    Surely the implication there is that the post-independence negotiations will not feature trident since trident is dependent on an SNP 2016 victory.

     

    Yes you're right. However good luck to any political party standing which wants to stand against that policy.

     

    EDIT: Hadn't seen your subsequent post - Labour at UK level (and I include some Scottish Labour MPs) are in favour of trident. Many within  Scottish Labour (MSPs, councillors) are opposed and get to voice their opposition whilst not having any responsibility over it. There is no way, given the opportunity, that Scottish Labour would stand on a platform of housing Trident for the UK under any circumstances. They are not that stupid.

    Edited by Glaswegianblizzard
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