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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    London has a trade surplus?, in tangible things?

     

    What tangible stuff does London produce?, is their a link to a UK breakdown of trade?

     

    Ah.. Now your link refers to the current account, not goods trade.

     

    London has a current account surplus and like the UK as a whole it has a surplus in the trade of services. Like the rest of the UK bar Scotland and the North East it runs a deficit in the trade of goods though.

     

    Your best bet will be the ONS.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Ah.. Now your link refers to the current account, not goods trade.

     

    London has a current account surplus and like the UK as a whole it has a surplus in the trade of services. Like the rest of the UK bar Scotland and the North East it runs a deficit in the trade of goods though.

     

    Your best bet will be the ONS.

    But that article seems to be linking the trade deficit to the current account deficit?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    But that article seems to be linking the trade deficit to the current account deficit?

     

    It is one factor..

     

     

    A country's current account can be calculated by the following formula:

    Posted Image

    When CA is the current account, X and M the export and import of goods and services respectively, NY the net income from abroad, and NCT the net current transfers.

     
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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    Latest odds remain pretty much unchanged, except for a slight drift of 'Yes' on some of the exchanges, so 'No' still very much to hot favourite...at least according to the unbaised.

     

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The Right Hon. Danny Alexander, Chief Secretary to HM Treasury, about to take to the stage.

     

    Apparently people are fighting each other outside for the few remaining tickets (standing only).

     

    Posted Image

     

    -----

     

    The BBC's favourite Prof. C on current poll trends moving to yes with the unionist main salvo of currency and business uncertainty having no impact or actually boosting Yes (from today's Mail).

     


    “To be effective, a campaign message needs three qualities. It needs to tell voters something new about a subject that matters to them, it has to be delivered by a credible source and it should not be widely disputed. The No side’s messages have fallen flat on all three grounds.
     
    The No side often gives the impression constant criticism of independence will win the day. Maybe it is time for it to think again.â€

     

     

     

    EDIT. The other polls of interest are the UK and EU ones.

     

    It seems from recent polls that the narrowing of the gap between the Tories and Labour has accelerated, possibly down to the budget. A 1-2 point Labour lead has been common over the past week from a variety of pollsters.

     

    The EU elections are of course increasingly primed to boost Yes.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/qywx7o2

    Latest Yougov EU voting intention:

    28% Lab
    26% UKIP
    24% Con
    11% Lib

    10/10 certain to vote:

    30% UKIP
    29% Lab
    20% Con
    10% Lib

     

    50% far right UKIP + Con...

    —

    North of the border of course all polls to date point to this new make up of Scots MEPs as a result of the election:

    3 SNP (+1)
    2 Lab (nc)
    1 Con (nc)
    0 Lib (-1)

     

    A state more divided politically as each day passes.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    The Russian ambassador to the UK has said that Crimea’s people “heard the British Government’s argument in the Scotland referendum campaign that it is by far better to be part of a bigger and stable nationâ€.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Morn's herald and SoS front pages.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    Interesting watching what seems to be papers starting to test the Yes water more and more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Well for the first time for so long I can't remember I actually stopped off at the newsagents when walking the dog this morning and bought a newspaper. Went with the Sunday Herald to see what its 6 page `referendum special` had to say.

    I was pretty shocked, very little in it that anyone from the Better Together side will take comfort from. A lot of coverage, as you'd expect from the front page, of the division in BT, especially after the unwelcome (for BT) comments from "a senior government minister" that the "no currency union, absolutely not!" is likely to be a bluff, as the Yes side have been asserting all along. Also a lot of criticism of the negative and disjointed manner in which the BT campaign has been run.

    Its certainly been an interesting week, what with the WOS advert hokey pokey (in, out, in, out shake it all about) then the currency union bombshell. This week could turn out to be a major turning point in the whole campaign.

    Went along to a YES event at Aberdeen Uni on Friday night too with my 18yr old daughter. It was mainly cos she wanted to go but I found it quite good. All the 4 speakers (Greens, Women for Indy, Labour for Indy and Common Weal i think) put across their views well and showed the broad range of different groups and views. I must say though that the Greens Patrick Harvie was an especially impressive speaker, very knowledgeable and polished. Obviously a one sided event but maybe better for that as it didn't get all shouty.

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The Herald Editorial view sums things up well.

     

    And it is important to note that the Herald has traditionally been a staunch unionist labour paper; the Labour broadsheet if you like (the Daily Record being Labour's tabloid / red top).

     

    No unity in Better Together
     
    Sunday 30 March 2014
     

    RARELY has a name been so loaded with irony.

     

    Better Together was supposed to convey unity, co-operation and a sense of shared values.

     

    This weekend, the pro-Union campaign is consumed by rancour, finger-pointing and impotent fury.

     

    A single newspaper story triggered the infighting which yesterday broke out between Labour, the LibDems and Tories. But while the Guardian's report of an unnamed Coalition minister saying an independent Scotland could "of course" share the pound with the UK may have ignited the feud, it is clear the match fell on prime kindling.

     

    Better Together's troubles reflect deeper problems with the organisation, not simply one headline.

     

    From the outset, its strategy has been to minimise grass-roots debate - its refusals to supply speakers to public events are notorious - and scare people into voting No before they barely had a chance to consider the issues. The less people chewed over the pros and cons, the better for the No camp, it seemed.

     

    The upshot has been a campaign over-reliant on negative messages and all but devoid of inspiration. The polls show where that got them.

     

    They now indicate support for independence rising and backing for the union edging down, a pattern seen across all socio-economic groups, among both men and women, and in all age groups bar the over-65s.

    Better Together is in trouble, and it knows it. Its job was to deny the Yes camp momentum, but the momentum has developed regardless.

     

    The jitters manifested themselves at this weekend's LibDem conference as former leader Tavish Scott made it clear Better Together's chair, Alistair Darling, wasn't connecting with voters, even Labour voters.

    And then the Guardian story arrived. It is hard to underestimate how damaging it is for the No side.

     

    The currency issue was Better Together's ace.

     

    The flat rejection of Alex Salmond's plan to share the pound was meant to destroy his credibility on not just one but a host of issues.

     

    Hence Better Together's constant demands for him to outline a Plan B on the currency.

     

    If he had done so, he would have been attacked twice as hard, for deviating from Plan A.

     

    Now the logic the Unionist parties hoped to apply to the First Minister is being used against them. If the Coalition is willing to mislead on an issue as big as the currency, what else can be trusted? That, at least, will be the thrust of the SNP's campaign for the rest of the referendum.

     

    Better Together acknowledge they have been wounded, but intend to carry on denying a currency union is possible. The warnings will stay in their forthcoming advertising campaign. They may keep shouting, but fewer people are listening.

     

     

     

    EDIT. I've started buying the Sunday Herald again. Wings is recommending people do for its good balance. Sunday Herald have given their thanks for this endorsement.

     

    All people are asking for is decent, balanced and well researched journalism after all. Both sides of the story. If the Scottish MSM does that - which should be its job in a functioning democracy - its precipitous decline can be halted or even reversed.

     

    For now though, it is the online world that is running the show, as Kevin McKenna talks about in the Guardian.

     

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/30/more-power-glasgow-online-journalists-wings-over-scotland-bella-caledonia

     

    More power to Glasgow's online journalists
     
    The writing on Bella Caledonia and Wings Over Scotland websites is of a very high quality and often surpasses what appears in paid-for titles

     

     

     

     

    -----

     

    Re the currency thing...

     

    This doesn't surprise me. At least the fact that the UK government is open to all options in terms of negotiated settlement, including a currency union for some undefined period of time. That's only common sense and I've never thought differently. Everyone with sense says this, i.e. what they say now is likely to be very different from what they say if Scots vote Yes. I didn't expect this to be leaked in the high profile way it has though!

     

    The problem for the pro-union side is that they were already distrusted by most of the electorate. However, people might have been sufficiently worried to take some note of what they were saying. This recent development basically says 'Don't trust us at all. Not one bit. Everything we say is most likely a lie to scare you into voting no.'

     

    They've ruined any small sense of credibility they might have had. It doesn't matter what they say now; people will take everything as a probable lie.

     

    Here is the current BT position (from WoS):

     

     

    Aye. No more needs to be said really.

     

    Good to hear folks are going along to Yes events. The scale of the grassroots campaign and public engagement at 'town hall' level is incredible. You'd need to go back over 50 years to see something like this in Scotland.

     

    Just less than 1/2 a year to go and what a ride that's going to be. Amazing to be living through this. 

     

    Whatever happens in September, Scotland will have changed forever, and for the better democratically. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    I always said that when it became possible that Yes could win. The media would change their tune. That is now happening as they don't want to pee off 50% of their readership. I think the Sunday Herald and the Sun will come out for a Yes vote in a month or two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    The Shareholders at this multi National must be wondering why they are opening a European HQ in a country which is suffering damage due to the uncertainity surrounding the referendum campaign!

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-26818852

     

    Shedhead, the bookies odds simply reflect the polls, where do you think they are getting there info from?

     

    My brother was at a Yes meeting in Dundee over the weekend, so many turned up that they had to remove seats and many had to stand. At the start of the meeting the chair normally asks for a show of hands from those who have not made there mind up and those who have not registred to vote.

     

    My brother assisted with the registering and he completed 35 new ones. Of those, 25 were going to vote Yes, 7 remained undecided and the remaining 3 were going to vote no. Don't you see?, the grass roots campaign are picking up thousands of new voters who the pollsters and therefore the bookies know absolutely nothing about. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    I think there is an arrogance in the no side that they presumed victory and still do.They are out of touch with the man on the street and thir over reliance on the biased MSM will ultimately destroy them.

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    The Shareholders at this multi National must be wondering why they are opening a European HQ in a country which is suffering damage due to the uncertainity surrounding the referendum campaign!

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-26818852

     

    Shedhead, the bookies odds simply reflect the polls, where do you think they are getting there info from?

     

    My brother was at a Yes meeting in Dundee over the weekend, so many turned up that they had to remove seats and many had to stand. At the start of the meeting the chair normally asks for a show of hands from those who have not made there mind up and those who have not registred to vote.

     

    My brother assisted with the registering and he completed 35 new ones. Of those, 25 were going to vote Yes, 7 remained undecided and the remaining 3 were going to vote no. Don't you see?, the grass roots campaign are picking up thousands of new voters who the pollsters and therefore the bookies know absolutely nothing about. 

    Ladbrokes are 1/6 about NO, so I'd suggest they are not relying solely on the polls, which IF they are to be believed should have NO c.1/2, perhaps 2/5.  Moreover, there has been little or no movement in their prices across the last month or so, which again IF the polls and some very vociferous members on here are to be believed is very strange. As I've said, stick with the bookies prices and you won't go far wrong, chase the hype beinging banded around by both sides and you'll get tied up in knots.  Once the odds start to narrow consistently and significantly, I might start to change my mind on what I still now think will be a resounding victory for NO.

     

    Just taking the Betfair market as a guide..... http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=110033387&selectionId=5334893&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en&region=GBR&brand=betfair&currency=GBP

     

    Very quickly found a level around 1.25 many months ago and has pretty much stayed around that price point ever since.  All talk of some inexorable drift towards YES is certainly not born out by those trading the exchanges, who incidently are fairly clued up folk by and large.

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Perhaps your research needs improvement Shedhead. It's not the ups and downs on the line. Look at how narrow the gap between the two lines are now compared to the general gap some time ago. This is what pollsters mean by a narrowing. It will be interesting the next couple of polls after reflection on the lies the UK government have spun recently about currency.

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-1#line

    Edited by November13
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Well we haven't had the vote yet. So we have to rely on polls for public opinion otherwise where are we getting the information from? Is it a gut feeling. Given that I live in Scotland my gut feeling would be more reliable than someone viewing the debate from outside. Back to the point. Someone who looks at the facts, which in this case is the poll of polls by Professor John Curtice, and dismisses them! Is a form of Willful Ignorance:

    Willful ignorance is the state and practice of ignoring any sensory input that appears to contradict one’s inner model of reality

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The odds from the bookies are interesting. Certainly they've been shortening on Yes steadily; you could get 10/1 late 2012, now 7/2 on average (EDIT, was 4/1 in December it seems). So matching polls quite well. 

     

    Majority of bets are being placed on Yes right now, but then the return you'll get is currently better on that outcome so we can't read a lot into that.

     

    What would be really interesting is betting patterns in Scotland. I'm not sure if that's possible. Obviously, punters in Scotland would be much more clued up about the way they felt the wind was blowing than UK punters as a whole. 

     

    I mean if you wanted to try and predict the outcome of an election in France, you'd look at betting patterns there, not how people in the UK were betting on it...

     

    ---------------

     

    Anyway, this week just keeps getting better for Yes.

     

     

    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/372082/Stay-with-UK-says-Scot-Simon-Cowell-Si-says-no-to-Scottish-independance

     

    Stay with UK says ‘Scot' Simon Cowell: Si chips in to referendum debate

     

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Until new opinion polls out then its hard to see exactly how much this currency union drama has impacted on voter intention. I find the comments from the secret minister somewhat bizarre in connecting currency with Trident.

     

    It's really down to who you believe or who you want to believe in Scotland, the general public throughout the UK have a low opinion of most politicians and are always sceptical of these exclamations of fact so its hardly surprising that many polled think the No to a currency union is a bluff.

     

    Unfortunately this currency union has moved from what makes sense economically to what makes sense politically. If Yes supporters try and put themselves in the shoes of the rUK how exactly does a rUK politician sell this to those voters, essentially a country through its own free will decides to become independent, then it asks you to be LOLR, cede some sovreignty to that country, at the same time the partnership is unequal because Scotland couldn't bail out a mess in the rUK.

     

    So lets say the debt becomes interlinked with the currency union, Scotland says no currency union no debt, thats fair enough its a good bargaining chip, but how does this play out with the rUK voters. Will threats backfire? The issue of transaction charges is really not upto much because that already happens with the EU and the UK.

     

    Further comments by Nicola Sturgeon suggesting that the rUK should not have a vote on a currency union just seeks to throw even more petrol on the fire and further harden the stance of those against a currency union.

     

    Generally I think most decent folk in the rUK would wish Scotland well if it becomes Independent, however I would suggest that the SNP take a different line than the current attitude, some diplomacy and a little understanding of how this is playing out in the rUK wouldn't go amiss!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    A typical example of the kind of waffle and bluff being spouted by both side desperate to win the day.

    No I am looking at the polls. At the moment Yes are behind. If the polls are correct today we wouldn't win. But the polls are narrowing and that's fact. So if they keep narrowing we have a chance. It is fair to say over the last two months the polls have narrowed. Which part of that is waffle. It's what even the biased media are saying. The only ones who can't admit the narrowing are the No campaign leaders. So to just dismiss every fact as skewed in favour of one side or another is not to understand the actual facts.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Nick. Currency continues to rank way down the list of priorities (see poll below - a possible slight increase, but within MoE). People don't really care about it.

     

    The outcomes are quite clear after all. Scotland remains in currency union with the UK so can help pay sterling debt (it needs equal access to sterling printing facilities / the BoE for this) or it uses the Scots £ tied to the UK £ with no debt.

     

    I fail to see how offering to take on a share of UK debt is anything other than fair and reasonable.

     

    In terms of the latest 'leak' development, the only impact I can see will be the Scots electorate doubting even more anything UK politicians say. This is a complete farce for the pro-union campaign, so much so even the generally pro-union Scottish press have been all over it like a rash.

     

    EDIT and I note rUK voters were happy with a currency union according to polls until the pro-union campaign ruled it out, apparently at the suggestion of Darling as a 'killer blow to independence' simple fear bomb campaigning tactic. Instead, all it's done is seeming make the end of the UK more likely and got shackles up on both sides of the border to a degree.

     

    If the union ends in September, it will be as much down to the pro-union campaign's negative tactics* driving Scotland out as it is YesScotland's positive campaigning.

     

    *

    “We’re [pro-union campaign] not complacent. But nothing would please the Nats more than us dumping negative campaigning, because they know it works.â€

     

    http://archive.is/Rp3Ut

     

    post-9421-0-02141400-1396276378_thumb.pn

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    I think there is genuine anger in the Scottish Press SS. It's hard to believe but it appears The Herald in particular feel that a line has been crossed. The line being you can try and bully the Scots which they went along with. But to tell outright lies or do anything to get a no vote no matter how damaging it might be for the Scots is now unnaceptable.

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    No I am looking at the polls. At the moment Yes are behind. If the polls are correct today we wouldn't win. But the polls are narrowing and that's fact. So if they keep narrowing we have a chance. It is fair to say over the last two months the polls have narrowed. Which part of that is waffle. It's what even the biased media are saying. The only ones who can't admit the narrowing are the No campaign leaders. So to just dismiss every fact as skewed in favour of one side or another is not to understand the actual facts.

    They might be narrowing, but the bookies clearly do not think that narrowing is sufficient to change the overall odds, therefore it remains insignificant in their minds...and mine.  Personally I'd be more than happy to see an Independent Scotland, but I've always strongly doubted it's likelyhood and I've seen nothing yet to change my mind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    I wonder if the bookies predicted the landslide SNP victory in 2011 Shedhead.

    1/3 odds in favour of Ian Gray(labour) being the first minister were predicted only months before the result. Bookies bets on elections are sometimes predictable in England but in Scotland they can predict nothing with accuracy.

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