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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    So, the latest polls put us into the "to close to call" area.

     

    To be honest I'm hoping for a decisive vote either way, a very small victory either way will simply open more cans of worms.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    The vote is 6 months away! The odds will not be the same in September as they are now so your point is not correct. Give me strength can you not see the No vote is crumbling!Poll of polls No Feb 2013 - 57%March 2013 - 45% w/dont knows 53%YES Feb 2013 - 32%March 2013 - 40% W/Dont knows 47%

    Not interested in polls, they can effectively be used by both sides of an arguement to produce the desired outcome.  Stick with what the market says and you won't go far wrong imo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Frankly I can't tell you what the odds were on an SNP victory 6 months prior to elections for the SG, but I can't honestly remember one single occasion going back 20 years and more where the bookies have gotten a political market badly wrong.

     

    OK, best I could come up with after some quick Googling (I'm really supposed to be working after all) was this ...

    http://caledonianmercury.com/2010/12/27/some-interesting-political-bets-for-2011/0012880

     

    That article is dated 27 Dec 2010, so roughy 5-6 months prior to the May 2011 election. To save anyone the bother of actually clicking on the link I'll quote the relevant part.

     

    Incidentally, Paddy Power is currently the only bookmaker offering odds on the next Scottish Parliament. Labour is the clear favourite at 1/3. For First Minister, Iain Gray is the odds-on favourite with Alex Salmond trailing some way behind. Neither Tavish Scott nor Annabel Goldie get a look in.

     

    So 6mths out not only were Labour huge favorites to be the winners but that Ian Gray, the Labour Leader in Scotland at the time was also "odds on favorite" with Paddy to be First Minister i.e. an event where Labour would not even need a majority, but probably only be the largest party in a coalition government. Of course the eventual outcome was somewhat different a Paddy certainly got it "badly wrong".

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    I'm sure there will be other examples, but that does not stop it being rare, even very rare imo. Moreover, I think comparing that market to this one is a bit like comparing and apple and a banana, yes they are both fruit, but that's about where the similarity begins and ends.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Shedhead you can't possibly take the odds for a poll which is 6 months away. It's not like betting on Barcelona to beat Partick Thistle in a friendly. Politics is fluid by it's very nature and we have seen in even the past 2 months a change with Yes going up by 10%. You would be mad to take the odds on poltical results that far out. There is actually no science to it as it's just like trying to predict the summer weather in March. It's a now forecast!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Looking at the cross tabs out so far from Panelbase, a few key things, the No has a strong lead in those 55+, the Yes a decent lead in 16-34 and 35-54 age range.

     

    Unfortunately we don't have those age groups separated out further, the area I was most interested in is the 45-54 age group as some previous polling had that as a strength for the Yes side.

     

    As I mentioned a few pages back there are issues with both the recent IPSOS poll aswell as the Survation because of the methodology, both those were at either end of the Spectrum in terms of support for both sides.

     

    If you note todays Panelbase kicked out those that answered 7 or below out of 10 on the vote screener intention to vote, the problem with these blunt out of ten screeners is the subjectivity of the answer, whats the difference between 7 and 8 in a voters mind.

     

    The best vote screeners are ones that ask more questions especially those that place hypothetical scenarios as obstacles aswell as further investigating current interest .

     

    Of course theres no perfect voter screener, essentially you're just trying to reduce the error rate.

     

    http://www.people-press.org/2001/05/18/screening-likely-voters-a-survey-experiment/

     

    The above link looks into this issue and done by the very respected Pew organisation in the USA.

     

    It maybe that the pollsters will increase the vote screener questions as the referendum draws closer, if you look at the last USA election Gallup had problems with its voter screener and had too many Obama supporters shown as not likely to vote, the change candidate normally has a stronger core of likely voters versus percentage support, the no change or in this case Better Together campaign is not really going to impassion people to the same degree which is of course logical.

     

    One could say that although the No side has an unfair advantage in certain respects in terms of establishment and the MSM thats somewhat mediated by the emotion argument of the Yes and also the anti-establishment vote for some which counteracts that to some degree.

     

    At the end of the day what wins this for Yes is the emotion side, this is an interesting variable that we don't often see in General Elections, they're more practical votes, and of course the vote isn't finite, you can always change after 5 years.

     

    The fascination from a social psychological viewpoint is how so many different factors come into play here, to a certain degree we have the romantic vision of an independent Scotland versus economic reality and the day to day concerns of the Scottish public, the risk taker versus the person who is much more cautious.

     

    One could say that both campaigns haven't quite managed to tread the right balance, the Yes has been too romantic and failed to answer some key questions, although they have a positive vision they haven't backed this up with enough certainties or shown enough consideration for issues that are somewhat out of their control.

     

    The No have been far too negative, eventually people will start switching off and all these business fears etc won't resonate.

     

    If you keep telling someone they can't do something you eventually find they'll say Yes we can! The No should start delivering a more adult message to Scotland, so rather than a castigating parent, a more rounded we think you might be okay as an Independent country but we also think that you'd be even Better Together with us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Problem now for the no side Nick. If they change tact and become positive it will look like desperation and too little too late. I am afraid the lady is not for turning. The negativity will continue. The latest and most cynical one is the Scottish labour party trying to con the working class vote to go back to no by saying they will be worst hit by a yes vote. Even worse Scot/Lab now offering to repeal teh sectarian policy if they get back into Holyrood. It's no secret that some Celtic fans were very unhappy about the law. It's no coincidence that the working class catholic vote for Yes is the highest out of all the socio economic groupings. Labour in Scotland have absolutely no scruples but it's desperation stuff now!

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    Shedhead you can't possibly take the odds for a poll which is 6 months away. It's not like betting on Barcelona to beat Partick Thistle in a friendly. Politics is fluid by it's very nature and we have seen in even the past 2 months a change with Yes going up by 10%. You would be mad to take the odds on poltical results that far out. There is actually no science to it as it's just like trying to predict the summer weather in March. It's a now forecast!

    There is science in the trend tho N13.  Once and if I see a consistent shortening of the YES odds, I might start to believe that the vociferous nature of the YES campaign is starting to have a genuine effect, but until that time I will stick with the most unbiased view being presented by the market. 

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    Looking at the cross tabs out so far from Panelbase, a few key things, the No has a strong lead in those 55+, the Yes a decent lead in 16-34 and 35-54 age range.

     

    Unfortunately we don't have those age groups separated out further, the area I was most interested in is the 45-54 age group as some previous polling had that as a strength for the Yes side.

     

    As I mentioned a few pages back there are issues with both the recent IPSOS poll aswell as the Survation because of the methodology, both those were at either end of the Spectrum in terms of support for both sides.

     

    If you note todays Panelbase kicked out those that answered 7 or below out of 10 on the vote screener intention to vote, the problem with these blunt out of ten screeners is the subjectivity of the answer, whats the difference between 7 and 8 in a voters mind.

     

    The best vote screeners are ones that ask more questions especially those that place hypothetical scenarios as obstacles aswell as further investigating current interest .

     

    Of course theres no perfect voter screener, essentially you're just trying to reduce the error rate.

     

    http://www.people-press.org/2001/05/18/screening-likely-voters-a-survey-experiment/

     

    The above link looks into this issue and done by the very respected Pew organisation in the USA.

     

    It maybe that the pollsters will increase the vote screener questions as the referendum draws closer, if you look at the last USA election Gallup had problems with its voter screener and had too many Obama supporters shown as not likely to vote, the change candidate normally has a stronger core of likely voters versus percentage support, the no change or in this case Better Together campaign is not really going to impassion people to the same degree which is of course logical.

     

    One could say that although the No side has an unfair advantage in certain respects in terms of establishment and the MSM thats somewhat mediated by the emotion argument of the Yes and also the anti-establishment vote for some which counteracts that to some degree.

     

    At the end of the day what wins this for Yes is the emotion side, this is an interesting variable that we don't often see in General Elections, they're more practical votes, and of course the vote isn't finite, you can always change after 5 years.

     

    The fascination from a social psychological viewpoint is how so many different factors come into play here, to a certain degree we have the romantic vision of an independent Scotland versus economic reality and the day to day concerns of the Scottish public, the risk taker versus the person who is much more cautious.

     

    One could say that both campaigns haven't quite managed to tread the right balance, the Yes has been too romantic and failed to answer some key questions, although they have a positive vision they haven't backed this up with enough certainties or shown enough consideration for issues that are somewhat out of their control.

     

    The No have been far too negative, eventually people will start switching off and all these business fears etc won't resonate.

     

    If you keep telling someone they can't do something you eventually find they'll say Yes we can! The No should start delivering a more adult message to Scotland, so rather than a castigating parent, a more rounded we think you might be okay as an Independent country but we also think that you'd be even Better Together with us.

    About as much chance of happening as Labour saying 'we think you might be okay with a Tory Government next term, but we also think that you'd be even better with us'. Politics has never really been about how good we can make your life, it's about how bad we can stop it being if you vote for the opposition.  Absolutely no reason to think this lot will slug it out any differently in the coming weeks, quite the opposite in fact.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I love this from the foreword of the Labour Devo Nano proposal, as put together by the British Labour Party (although not as I understand it given the final stamp of approval by Ed).*

     

    "It was never the intention of devolution to devolve power to the Scottish Parliament, ..."

     

    And here's the infamous selling of it on Newsnight. Never mind that Lamont isn't the best when it comes to interview, but the worthless proposals are unworkable anyway.

     

     

    It's a multi-car pile up of epic proportions.

     

    If you are a supporter of the original concept of the Labour movement, at least vote for a Labour party with politicians of conviction, coherent speakers, a clear manifesto and who are actually a left-wing party.

     

    Posted Image

     

    http://www.labourforindy.com/

     

    *Would be the icing on the cake if London rejects it, i.e. even Devo Nano brainless getting binned.

     

    Of course the main thing is that this has effectively ruled out any form of Devo Max; the preference of a 1/3 of the population in addition to the core 1/3 for indy. Labour is the only party that people believed might come up with something and the only party that could possibly implement it. 

     

    The Libs have been talking about federalism for 100 years and their water down proposal will never get anywhere just like them. 85% of the population don't believe a word the Tories say and of those that do, many are not that keen on more devolution!

     

    RIP once and for all Devo Max.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Hi SS

    It's hilarious now watching labour tie themselves in knots and offering something new every week. First it was DEVO NANO...now Anas offering to repeal the sectarian laws...what will be the next bribe...All to buy the working class vote. Not in order to make things better for them ...just to secure a no vote because they need power to remain in london for their master Milliband.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I'm wondering whether the pollsters will start looking at the undecideds in more detail, theres still a large percentage and these now look the key to a win for both sides.

     

    One has to be careful though with the types of polls, whether they have the ballot question first or after another series of questions, the Panelbase Survey of last year which showed Yes ahead was so evidently biased and again the IPSOS which I highlghted a few pages back was also skewed IMO because of word order in terms of Scottishness and identity.

     

    For example last years Panelbase had a series of questions before the ballot question:

     

    http://www.panelbase.com/news/SNPPollTables020903.pdf

     

    This is a clear bias to elicit a positive response to the referendum question, todays poll from Panelbase removes that bias.

     

    So its important to look at the crosstabs of all the polls, again look at whose commisioning the poll, you can still end up with headlines saying one thing and even though the ballot question is asked exactly as it will appear this can cover an underhanded technique to elicit a particular response.

     

    I'd bin any polling that doesn't ask the ballot question first after the initial vote screener, in terms of IPSOS look at the sneaky way they ask questions on identity in terms of Scottishness, by placing the question equally Scottish and British in that order, rather than mixing it up and having equally British and Scottish, the word order is liable to elicit a certain response.

     

    The problem recently is too many polls are internet based, this is cheaper but really not as good as telephone polling.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The problem recently is too many polls are internet based, this is cheaper but really not as good as telephone polling.

     

    Landline telephone polling has been largely discredited. Response rates are ~20% these days and 16% of households don't have a landline with a large proportion of who do not using it other than for broadband. MORI is the only pollster still using it alone in Scotland (and elsewhere).

     

    Even ICM have given up and gone for a mobile-landline mixed approach. Other pollsters such as Comres (UK) do online and telephone polls and publish both.

     

    Of course that doesn't mean online is perfect - there are issues to (e.g. are people really who they say their are?), although penetration is better than landline now particularly given the rise of smartphones. 

     

    The most accurate sampling method is door knocking. TNS do this. Their problem is the shy factor, as evidenced by A DK level 10% higher than all the other pollsters which directly relates to / mirrors Yes level, i.e. people saying 'DK' when they intend Yes as they're being asked face to face in the living room by a stranger who has taken all their personal details...

     

    As you note, all these flaws and caveats must be accounted for when trying to form a picture. It doesn't help that pollsters are inexperienced in Scotland and have no previous on independence referenda!

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    So Labour have resorted to simply making stories up now...

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26670731

     

    Implying that an indepedent Scotland would have a race to the bottom with RuK on the provision of social justice, clearly, they just don't get it.

     

    The whole friggin' point of Scotland wanting independence is so it can actually provide MORE SOCIAL JUSTICE, not less. This is why the Tories are an irrelevance in Scotland as are the Lib Dems for jumping into bed with them. If Labour aren't careful, they will be going the same way.

     

    I mean only yesterday, Scottish Labour came out and said they would repeal the anti-bigotry legislation if they had a majority at Holyrood, so it is they who are offering less social justice to victims of bigots.

     

    Honestly, my true Socialist grandparents must be birling in their graves!!

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    I do have to question why the SNP don't propose to restore the 50% tax rate on incomes over £150k, but to extrapolate that to 'it will be a race to the bottom' seems like a bit of a leap. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    *Labour Party's Anti-Salmond/SNP Scottish Conference.

     

    Widest image I've seen yet of the audience from the BBC.

     

    Looks to be well down on last year and like the Tories did a bit better to be honest, although from the numbers Dave had brought by bus in for this speech at the EICC, I think I might have just beaten him in my opening address to the same theatre full of academics with an interest in clathrate hydrates of natural gases.

     

    *Just listened in a bit and corrected accordingly.

    post-9421-0-51487000-1395403077_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I do have to question why the SNP don't propose to restore the 50% tax rate on incomes over £150k

     

    I'd have thought that rather obvious from the past few weeks, although I don't think they need to be as cautious they are.

     

    And note Labour failed to vote against the 50p tax cut. Most abstained, including Balls.

     

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/27/ed-balls-fails-to-vote-commons-50p-tax-budget-2012_n_1381601.html

     

    Ed Balls Fails To Vote In Commons 50p Tax Motion
     
    Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has been mocked by Tories and members of other parties, after he and the vast majority of Labour MPs couldn't be bothered to vote on a motion in the Commons on Monday night on a motion relating to the scrapping of the 50p tax rate.

     

     

     

    Given that the SNP are actually just left of the real centre, I'd imagine a rather progressive model for taxation will be their prerogative in iScotland, *one they will agree with party members, then put in their manifesto for the electorate to consider ahead of elections.

     

    At the moment, they have no say in the matter and neither does Lamont nor the Labour party. The latter can of course attempt point-score away as a result in a largely risk-free manner.

     

    *This is crucial. The SNP actually formulate policy based on feedback  from members with it put to vote if there is internal controversy.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I do have to question why the SNP don't propose to restore the 50% tax rate on incomes over £150k, but to extrapolate that to 'it will be a race to the bottom' seems like a bit of a leap. 

     

    It would be political suicide to come out with such bold statements leading up to the referendum.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Would generate at most ~£8 million too.

     

    Probably a lot less.

     

    Was talked about in the interview with Lamont. She said £100 million which was actually a figure for the UK and Brewer picked her up on it. So let's say 8 million.

     

    Scotland doesn't actually have that many people earning over £150 k.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Due to the wealth drain of the SE of England on it. Of course in England, it would have more of an impact.

     

    In terms of relative income, Scotland is more equal already.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Not sure what 12/13 figures are, but you could expect a continuation of the same general trend.

     

    I'm in favour of a progressive tax regime, but I don't believe in UK reactionary politics where parties just suddenly should they support / are against something in the hope of gaining a few votes. I prefer sensible, thought out policies.

     

    All the SNP might do if they were reactionary is get more Tory business-types saying they'd move their businesses out of an iScotland even though they wouldn't.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    From the sources I heard they were quoting people on £40k getting penalised with the higher tax threshold. £40k is a good salary but it doesn't make you a millionaire. Anyway Labours tax propsals are all over the place..I can't make head nor tail of them. From what I understand Scotland will end up having less from Barnet and the only way to generate the shortfall is to tax people more. It's fundamentally crazy. Instead of growing the economy to generate wealth labour want to tax the citizens..do they not see that no Scottish government will ever use the powers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Meanwhile Scottish Health continues to improve under devolution and a non privatised NHS..

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-26681098

     

    Who would have thought that having decisions made by politicians closer to the action sees real benefits, imagine what full independence could deliver?

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Another day and another poll reflecting Yes on the rise.We are within 5% of victory and 6 months to go! we are winning the grassroots fight.When truth is given to people they move to yes!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Another day and another poll reflecting Yes on the rise.We are within 5% of victory and 6 months to go! we are winning the grassroots fight.When truth is given to people they move to yes!

     

    Yes.
     
    Coming on the back of the panelbase poll, the latest ICM has everyone, grudgingly or not, saying No is in trouble and Yes is closing the gap bar Better Together.
     
    Even the BBC's Prof C*. and AW at UKPR.
    *The latest monthly ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday, published today, will do little to smooth the worried brows in the No camp. Once again the message appears to be that the referendum race has become, from their perspective at least, all too close for comfort.
     
    This comes in response to the unionist's main salvo of Osballs' £ nuclear bomb and subsequent dambusters on business which was supposed to solidly ensure a No vote. 
     
    With respect to ICM's latest poll... it is more a reversion to its own mean after something of a No outlier in it's last poll, but it clarifies the trend.
     
    The overall trend of ICM since it started polling Scotland again last September (after a break of 18 months) is:
     
    N = 46(-3)%
    Y = 39(+7)%
    DK = 15(-4)%
    No lead = 7(-10) points
     
    Excluding DK = 46%Y/54%N
     
    Overall, my own 'face value' (it's more complicated than that as I've talked about and much to the advantage of Yes...) analysis of polls since the No peak of later 2012:
     
    Yes = 39(+11)%
    No = 42(-9)%
    DK = 19(-2)%
     
    No lead = 4(-19) points
     
    Excluding DK = 48%Y/52%N
     
    All largely a direct swing from No to Yes.
     
    Still with nearly six months to go and Yes really now kicking into action, e.g. this has now kicked off across Scotland as stage 1.
     
    Posted Image Posted Image
     
    As for ICM, seeing this morning's Tory Hootsman on Sunday cover was quite a surprise. It and the Herald with good news for Yes on the same day!
     
    Posted Image
     
    Posted Image
     
    The 'double blow' is in relation to very few believing in more devolution if it's a no as found by panelbase too. And both polls were sampled really to early to have been impacted by labour's disastrous Devo Nano and conference.
     
    I'm awaiting tables for ICM to do more digging on the who believes what / who doesn't on more powers to compare with panelbase. However, a quick look suggest results show increasing scepticism on any form of more devo and there was not much trust here to start with.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    I think Labour have made a big gaffe over their devo nano offer to the Scottish electorate. From my perspective, it's just too complex, i just don't get it. Tinkering around with the tax will probably cost more to the SG to administrate than devolving the whole of tax collection. If I can not see the net gain, I am beginning to think others feel the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I think Labour have made a big gaffe over their devo nano offer to the Scottish electorate. From my perspective, it's just too complex, i just don't get it. Tinkering around with the tax will probably cost more to the SG to administrate than devolving the whole of tax collection. If I can not see the net gain, I am beginning to think others feel the same.

    I agree its far too complicated and could end being more trouble than its worth, I've said in the past that devolving more powers sounds good but could end up delivering a poisoned chalice to the Scottish parliament, effectively it would force them to put up some taxes to meet their pledges thereby becoming unpopular.

     

    The Devo Max scenario is probably the easiest in terms of being a workable solution but of course for the Unionists this is really just going to be a bitter pill to swallow because if that works and delivers a more prosperous Scotland then the jump to full independence loses much of its fear factor which inevitably means that there is likely to be calls for another referendum down the line.

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