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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Indeed, but then i've never been one to believe that i should subsidize the welsh valleys. On the main lines, there's plenty of profit to be made and competition to invite.

     

    Would you be ok with subsidising a loss making service which indirectly increased economic activity so that overall there was a net benefit?

     

    Only the state can provide such a service.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Would you be ok with subsidising a loss making service which indirectly increased economic activity so that overall there was a net benefit?

     

    Only the state can provide such a service.

     

    It would depend on the cause of the loss. Was the business simply inefficient? Would investment restore the service to profit? Can a new service involving station x deliver a profit (perhaps a different destination). Are there alternatives?

     

    In several (especially rural) areas i'd rather just leave them to travel on roads, on other lines they simply need investment or different services ect..

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Of course I very sorry to hear of those who are losing their job but on a personal note I don't want to see the job market in central Scotland flooded with chemists, I'm never going to get a new job at this rate!

     

    You need to get yourself into oil and gas if you can.

     

    http://www.hays.com/prd_consump/groups/hays_common/@og/@content/documents/digitalasset/hays_724929.pdf

     

    As a fresh, inexperienced graduate process chemist, 30 k would be the min you'd start on, rising quickly.

     

    The industry is crying out for staff. The UK government has for so long gone to great lengths to convince Scotland that there's no future in oil that there's nowhere near enough qualified people, instead they need to be sourced from elsewhere. Industry is missing a generation gap from the Thatcher 'there's only 10 years left' (Iie) years onwards.

     

    Hence the funding the Scottish government are putting into this, e.g. with the new Oil and Gas Academy.

     

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2013/05/energy10052013

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    Posted
  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

    You need to get yourself into oil and gas if you can.

     

    http://www.hays.com/prd_consump/groups/hays_common/@og/@content/documents/digitalasset/hays_724929.pdf

     

    As a fresh, inexperienced graduate process chemist, 30 k would be the min you'd start on, rising quickly.

     

    The industry is crying out for staff. The UK government has for so long gone to great lengths to convince Scotland that there's no future in oil that there's nowhere near enough qualified people, instead they need to be sourced from elsewhere. Industry is missing a generation gap from the Thatcher 'there's only 10 years left' (Iie) years onwards.

     

    Hence the funding the Scottish government are putting into this, e.g. with the new Oil and Gas Academy.

     

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2013/05/energy10052013

     

    The problem with oil and gas is that is nearly all in Aberdeen, then since that is the most expensive city to live in I'd expect a living salary.  I'm already specialised, no one will hire me on a horizontal transfer because they aren't willing to give any training, so I'm looking at starting again anyway, except there are no graduate jobs!

     

    In all seriousness in central Scotland there is virtually no science jobs available, so where are all these people from Grangemouth going to go?  Some to Aberdeen but I'd expect them to leave Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The problem with oil and gas is that is nearly all in Aberdeen, then since that is the most expensive city to live in I'd expect a living salary.  I'm already specialised, no one will hire me on a horizontal transfer because they aren't willing to give any training, so I'm looking at starting again anyway, except there are no graduate jobs!

     

    In all seriousness in central Scotland there is virtually no science jobs available, so where are all these people from Grangemouth going to go?  Some to Aberdeen but I'd expect them to leave Scotland.

     

     

     

    Not if you are prepared to go offshore and do e.g. 1 month on 1 month off for a few years. You can live where you like. Stay in Cupar, whatever, you are only making the journey (to the heliport) once a month. That pays really well, even for the lower rungs.

     

    If you travel outwith the UK to your offshore (or far flung destination), you can usually get all flights/travel paid too. There's a young guy at my office who had a degree in chemistry and ended up selling/marketing cheese on graduation. He got into the industry by us taking him on as technical marketing as part of an SDI project. He got a bit of chemistry experience from us, his offshore safety certificates, and now he's off to be a mud engineer. He's young, no family so one month off one on is ideal for him. Good salary too. He is likely going to spend a month offshore in the Falklands at some point though!

     

    If you want to start again and you have a solid physical sciences degree then an MSc Petroleum Engineering is a highly recommended course. Vast majority of places are fully industry funded too. Heriot-Watt (Edinburgh), Robert Gordon and Aberdeen Unis are your best bets in the UK.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    Result of the Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by election:

    Lab   10,275

    SNP    7,402
    LD    2,852
    CON    2,009
    UKIP    908
    GRN   593
    Jacobite   161
    Result: LAB GAIN from SNP
     
    Result of the Hamilton South council by election:
    Lab    1781 
    SNP    1120
    Con    322
    Christian    133
    UKIP     86

    Result: LAB GAIN from SNP

     
    If Scotland were on the verge of embracing independence, surely we shouldn't be seeing outcomes like these less than a year from the vote?
     
    Bish
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    Result of the Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by election:

    Lab   10,275

    SNP    7,402
    LD    2,852
    CON    2,009
    UKIP    908
    GRN   593
    Jacobite   161
    Result: LAB GAIN from SNP
     
    Result of the Hamilton South council by election:
    Lab    1781 
    SNP    1120
    Con    322
    Christian    133
    UKIP     86

    Result: LAB GAIN from SNP

     
    If Scotland were on the verge of embracing independence, surely we shouldn't be seeing outcomes like these less than a year from the vote?
     
    Bish

     

     

    No, in fact we should expect the SNP vote share to reduce slightly if anything for very obvious reasons. You are making the mistake of conflating SNP vote share with independence support. In recent polls, at least 25% of Labour voters support indy and growing. If you are a Tory who supports indy, why would you keep voting for a centre-left party? The referendum is guaranteed. The Dunfermline result changes nothing. People can vote with original party loyalty. After all, for a good proportion, voting SNP was a means to an end; an end that has been achieved.

     

    The result is exactly as everyone predicted. In fact Labour did less well than might have been expected.

     

    In terms of trying to regain influence in Holyrood, last night was a poor show for Labour. In a traditionally solid Labour heartland, even with the backing of a lot of Lib Dem voters, fighting a seat the SNP were totally surprised to win narrowly (500 votes or so), with a candidate who it turned out later was a wife beater so had to be expelled, Labour managed less votes than in 2011. Labour really should have been aiming to get at best a 3000 vote lead. They failed to do this so it's a hollow victory and suggests they are still stuck well behind the SNP nationally (as per polls). To have a swing less than that seen in the SNP-favouring Aberdeen Donside is going backwards.

     

    UKIP lost another deposit. Nice.

     

    What's more interesting is twitter messages saying the latest Y/N poll is showing N continuing to fall and Yes climbing. Apparently, excluding DK/thinking about indy, it's 46% Yes to 54% No. Trying to find out more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

    No, in fact we should expect the SNP vote share to reduce slightly if anything for very obvious reasons. You are making the mistake of conflating SNP vote share with independence support. In recent polls, at least 25% of Labour voters support indy and growing. If you are a Tory who supports indy, why would you keep voting for a centre-left party? The referendum is guaranteed. The Dunfermline result changes nothing. People can vote with original party loyalty. After all, for a good proportion, voting SNP was a means to an end; an end that has been achieved.

     

    The result is exactly as everyone predicted. In fact Labour did less well than might have been expected.

     

    True, but by the same token we mustn't assume that all SNP voters are necessarily going to vote Yes next autumn either. 

     

    BTW good to see so many female candidates standing. However the final turnout (about 42% I believe?) was rather disappointing for all parties.

     

    Bish

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    True, but by the same token we mustn't assume that all SNP voters are necessarily going to vote Yes next autumn either. 

     

    BTW good to see so many female candidates standing. However the final turnout (about 42% I believe?) was rather disappointing for all parties.

     

    Bish

     

    Yes, not all SNP voters will vote Yes; this has been discussed at length in the thread before, i.e. support for indy amongst different party support. It is highest among SNP voters (at least 70% right now), with the remainder generally all pro devo max / lots more devo.

     

    For a by-election which wouldn't change anything in terms of the balance of power the turnout was what might be expected. I really wish more people would get off their bums and vote, even in by-elections.

     

    I expect the turnout for the referendum will be high, quite likely over 70%. Currently polls suggest a high turnout favours Yes voters. Presumably this is because a section of no voters are more apathetic as they are largely uninterested which tends to default 'No/status quo'. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Dunfermline Bi Election - Monkey as long as it's a Labour monkey. Nothing else to add!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Alex Neil was on STV earlier saying a large 10,000 sample on the referendum in the Dunfermline constituency had YES/NO vote at 50-50, with a third undecided at this stage. The 1/3 Y, 1/3 N, 1/3 'giving it consideration but DK' (namely devo maxers) is consistently what's being found on the doorstep.

     

    Still trying to source that panelbase poll which was reported on newsnight.

     

    It gave 46% Yes excluding DKs. If we assume that DK levels are average, then that would yield 37 Y / 43 N 20 DK. That ties in with TNS which gave 44 N recently with parity approaching.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    I wouldn't take too much notice from a by-election as they often swing wildly from general election results, consistently favour the opposition and may not even fit with mid-term trends. The SNP were still a 7% share above their 2007 'notional result' (the seat as it is now didn't exist then). Even if SNP support was genuinely disappointing (which it wasn't), I wouldn't say it was necessarily bad for Yes. From my point of view, I'd quite like there to be an end, or quicker end, of the association with Yes being an SNP-only campaign.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Looks like the unions are admitting defeat at Grangemouth. While i agree that it would not have been a bad decision to part nationalise it had it close this is a great victory over the tyrannical unions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Looks like the unions are admitting defeat at Grangemouth. While i agree that it would not have been a bad decision to part nationalise it had it close this is a great victory over the tyrannical unions.

     

    Actually, the ones to gain most from the experience are the modestly left of centre Scottish Government.

     

    Whilst energy / oil and gas are reserved to Westminster, the UK government were nowhere to be seen. Instead, Alex Salmond and John Swinney were right in there, prioritising it over campaigning in Dunfermline. Parties involved have been praising their efforts to find a solution highly. Lots of pics of AS and JS at the negotiating table. No sign of anyone recognisable from Westminster.

     

    Scottish Government said nationalisation was a possibility if needed. Westminster said not a chance and if it had to close, so be it.

     

    1-0 Scottish Government.

     

    Interesting, lots of people reporting people they know who were were 'No' moving towards 'Yes' over the matter. One reason being they couldn't believe Westminster would sit back and let a vital strategic energy asset go to the wall on a billionaire's whim. The other being they think Westminster was complicit in it in the hope of damaging the independence cause (by implication that Grangemouth's closure would harm the oil and gas industry). Oops.

     

    And FYI it was Ineos that threatened to stop the plant working by doing cold shut-down which they then did, not the unions. Ineos threatened Scotland and the Scottish Government came to the rescue. That's the way it is being reported in the papers here.

     

    Anyway, no Tory celebrations over union bashing today. They are celebrating however; god knows what though. Maybe you can give me an insight?

     

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/did-we-miss-something/

     

    Tories celebrating coming forth again, getting fewer votes than last time etc. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    "Well, we held what we had and this 4th place was fractionally better than the last 4th place we gotâ€,

     

    LOL.

     

    Talk about a serious lack of ambition. I mean 4th place is a cause for celebration? Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Still not found out about that panelbase poll (46% Y excluding DKs). Some suggesting it was a recent panelbase aggregate poll of polls by Prof C, but people are reporting being polled by panelbase a week or so ago (and not for the below poll).

     

    Anyway, Wings just took delivery our (I chipped in again) second crowd-funded poll and is dropping hints on twitter.

     

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland

     

    Hopefully we'll see the first results later tonight.

     

    Wings Over Scotland â€@WingsScotland 23m
    Labour voters are the most undecided about their referendum votes, Tories the most certain. (By a HUGE margin.)
     
    Wings Over Scotland â€@WingsScotland 1h
    The really, really interesting aspect of this data is the views of the people who are currently undecided about their referendum vote.
     
    ...Let's just say that on most issues, they lean a LOT closer to one side than the other.
     
     
    EDIT. I'll be chipping in for this too. They've made some good films to date.
     
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Grangemouth

    The unions backed themselves into a corner.

    Unite, of which i'm a fully paid up member, were playing with people's lives.

    With only half the workforce voting for strike action and quite a number of those against strike action actually being brave enough to speak out against any action, this was always doomed for McCluskey and his 'barons'.

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Ok, nothing out until Sunday probably as WoS need to pass articles by the pollster to ensure interpretation is correct.

     

    Some teasers:

     

    - Labour voters are the most undecided about the referendum, with Conservative voters the most certain.
    (By a very large margin.)
     
    - Turnout is likely to be at least twice as high in percentage terms as last night’s by-election in Dunfermline.
    (So drawing conclusions about the referendum from that is silly.)
     
    - The gap in referendum voting intentions between 18-24 voters and those aged 25-34 is mindbogglingly wide.
    (Like, really, really wide. You haven’t seen wide until you’ve seen this.)
     
    - Liberal Democrats will sacrifice any principle for a taste of power
    (Sorry about that, again.)
     
     
    The first point is of course key. Up to 25% of Labour voters support indy with a lot of undecideds. They're key.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    GrangemouthThe unions backed themselves into a corner.Unite, of which i'm a fully paid up member, were playing with people's lives.With only half the workforce voting for strike action and quite a number of those against strike action actually being brave enough to speak out against any action, this was always doomed for McCluskey and his 'barons'.

     

    As noted, not the way it was seen nor reported in Scotland.

     

    Ineos seen as the enemy. UK government seen as complicit with them by many.

     

    Herald View for example:

     

    No justification for conduct of Ineos

     

    http://archive.is/B4U6B

     

    Distress. Anger. That is what is left for ­workers at the Ineos ­petrochemical plant in Grangemouth. "I feel sick," said one employee, struggling to get his head round the bombshell announcement that the plant was to close. "That's it. Folk will be lucky if they have a house at Christmas."
    Are such concerns for worker welfare keeping Ineos owner Jim Ratcliffe awake at night? That seems highly questionable. The conduct of Ineos, painting the union as culpable for the plant's closure and the loss of its members' own jobs, has been at times astonishingly heavy-handed.
     
    The petrochemical plant is also profitable, e.g.
    Rather than losing money, as the company claim, the chemical plant at Grangemouth delivered £7million in profits last year, analyst Richard Murphy told the Daily Record.
     
    His claims fuelled speculation that Ineos used smart accounting techniques to paint a bleaker 
    future for the plant and secure taxpayers’ cash.
     
    Murphy said the plant made £6million profit the year before, even after a pension fund shortfall was factored in.
     
    Ineos claim it loses £10million a month.
     
    Murphy, of Fulcrum Chartered Accountants, studied the Ineos accounts on behalf of the union Unite. He says the plant was making a fortune until Ineos apparently set out to make it appear loss-making.
     
    He said Ineos, unlike any other company, decided to factor in their investment in the plant as a loss.
     
     
    The owner moved the HQ to Switzerland to get around a tax dispute with the UK government. Apparently Ineos haven't paid tax in the UK for years.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    Still not found out about that panelbase poll (46% Y excluding DKs). Some suggesting it was a recent panelbase aggregate poll of polls by Prof C, but people are reporting being polled by panelbase a week or so ago (and not for the below poll).

    The 46% Y and 54% N is an average of panelbase polls since the referendum question was finalised, excluding don't knows - Prof C had it on the byelection coverage last night, caught a bit of it - but when the result wasn't imminent, went to bed.
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    The levels of open bias in the Bbc are now reaching new levels.They now want to convince the public that keeping Grangemouth open was due to big brother Westminster stepping in.What is wrong with these misguided sichophantic amateur journalist that are paid by us.It's just so wrong on so many levels.But the really sad thing is they represent the Scot of 30 years ago.The Scot that accepts they are second class and nothing without mother England. They are the worst kind of Scots who cannot see further than the high road South.Maybe they are just bitter that they are not clever enough to work for Bbc London.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The BBC interview where the above ridiculous argument is put forward. FM doesn't take it lying down; after all, only the BBC who's been saying it.

     

    Click to listen (from WoS).

     

    Posted Image

     

    ...Well, that would be a ridiculous way to look at things for the reasons I’ve just given you. I’ve just pointed out that a loan guarantee system, where you have to not give a loan but just a guarantee of a loan, is something that an independent Scottish government would easily be able to do and have as part of its armoury of industrial powers, but the only people who have ever asked me about this, incidentally, are the BBC. You seem to be fixated on the idea that the UK government, alone of all governments in the world, are the ones who can give guarantees on loans. I think that’s a ridiculous argument to put forward...

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Yes I now believe BBC Scotland are on message from better together.Derek Bateman ex BBC man suggested it was just that they were not very smart and the bias was unintended.However there is now no doubt they are pro union.This is unacceptable in a democracy that they openly only represent the minority who will vote no.Minority you say!Well if we take a majority as 50 % then no voters with only 46% of the intended vote are a minority.No one group has a majority of 50%.But that's another way the BBC say the majority don't support independence.It's simply not true.It is the highest minority out of yes,no and don't know.However Yes + don't know could in theory make as majority on the day of the vote.

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.

    It would depend on the cause of the loss. Was the business simply inefficient? Would investment restore the service to profit? Can a new service involving station x deliver a profit (perhaps a different destination). Are there alternatives?

     

    In several (especially rural) areas i'd rather just leave them to travel on roads, on other lines they simply need investment or different services ect..

     

    That's a ridiculously short sighted position. The existence of the rail service would decrease congestion on the roads and open up opportunities for travel and work that weren't previously there. This in turn contributes the overall economy, creates jobs, and people visit these places who wouldn't normally have done so. 

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  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.

    Looks like the unions are admitting defeat at Grangemouth. While i agree that it would not have been a bad decision to part nationalise it had it close this is a great victory over the tyrannical unions.

     

    Are you at the wind up? One man- a billionaire as it happens -  threatens to put 100's of people out of work, destroy a local economy and possibly even disrupt the economic life of Scotland and northern England, and the unions are tyrannical??!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Are you at the wind up? One man- a billionaire as it happens -  threatens to put 100's of people out of work, destroy a local economy and possibly even disrupt the economic life of Scotland and northern England, and the unions are tyrannical??!

     

    The employees were offered a plan which would see most of them guaranteed their jobs until at least 2025 for a cut in pensions and pay, while it was obviously not the easiest decision for those workers to accept they have reached an agreement, they now have their jobs for a good long while and if they want higher pay they can move elsewhere.

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