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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Looks like we're up for a poll every day now.

     

    A wee (straw presumably) phone poll result from Original 106 FM (Aberdeen and North East local radio station).

     

    http://www.originalfm.com/posts/results-the-original-106-independence-poll

     

    No option for don't know.

     

    Yes = 56%

    N = 44%

     

    Misty..

     

    I hope that with things now just a year away, people start taking the time to seriously think about what they'll vote, go online, read up on the issues from both sides.

     

    My impression is that this is starting to happen.

     

    Relatively new guy at my office, when the subject came up, said he was 'for the union I suppose but hadn't given it thought but was planning to look into the matter as wanted to make an informed decision'. Everyone in my office is Yes (oil and gas, so no surprise there), and the subject is now openly discussed, whereas before it wasn't. Anyway, he's been away reading and coming back with questions. He's now tuning into newsnight, following the debates, stories etc and has moved to DK / giving yes consideration.

    Must be the field I work in as no-one in my office talks about it. It's almost like a dirty word like Celtic and Rangers. When it does come up it is usually petty school boy stuff or very defensive. I would say without a doubt I am one of only 3 people out of say 25 who are pro independence in here. Then I see the polls and realise how easy it is to become polarised in your own working environment and think it is a lost cause. The polls show that at least 10 of my colleagues should be pro and maybe 2 dont knows if it followed the average. I am just glad that the people out there in the rest of Scotland are not like those in here. They are very negative or just not very interested in making Scotland better.
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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Must be the field I work in as no-one in my office talks about it. It's almost like a dirty word like Celtic and Rangers. When it does come up it is usually petty school boy stuff or very defensive. I would say without a doubt I am one of only 3 people out of say 25 who are pro independence in here. Then I see the polls and realise how easy it is to become polarised in your own working environment and think it is a lost cause. The polls show that at least 10 of my colleagues should be pro and maybe 2 dont knows if it followed the average. I am just glad that the people out there in the rest of Scotland are not like those in here. They are very negative or just not very interested in making Scotland better.

     

    Come along to the march on Saturday in Edinburgh then. Should lift your spirits!

     

    A few from here (NW) are going along. Fun day out for the family. Mini 6 yr old Miss SS is the most excited of all after I showed her photos of the last one. Face paints for French tricolour and saltire on her cheeks at the ready!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Come along to the march on Saturday in Edinburgh then. Should lift your spirits! A few from here (NW) are going along. Fun day out for the family. Mini 6 yr old Miss SS is the most excited of all after I showed her photos of the last one. Face paints for French tricolour and saltire on her cheeks at the ready!

    Yes will try and make it along as it sounds like a great reason to waive a saltire with some like minded people. Hopefully see other international flags there as well.
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Latest episode of 'The Fear Factor' out.

     

    Part one:

     

    This is the Fear Factor

     

     

     

    Newly released part 2:

     

    Part of the Union

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Is the STV/IpsosMori just on ITV news at mo any good SS?

    No change on the last one so not really news.

     

    I need to see the tables to see if there's anything interesting. If they are doing landline telephone as per last one, then they are the only company using that method as it has been discredited as 20% of homes don't have a landline and a large percentage of those that do, only use it for broadband. My best mate is an example. Means they miss the group that most support indy and catch more of those that don't (the elder generation and younger ones still living with elderly conservative parents rather than those out working etc). You can see it in XY plots of Y vs N etc.

     

    Their last one gave similar figures but was not demographically weighted properly. 

     

    They asked the Moreno question, got severe discrepancies from the well established values (it's asked every year in the SSAS and BSAS in addition to various polls) with too many 'British' and 'Equally Scottish and British', yet didn't weight this. Must admit I was taken aback given what the poll was on! 

     

    They did however conclude that at it's wide open as only 36% said they were sure they'd vote no (note what you are seeing is headline figures after they attempt to weight for turnout etc; not what people actually said). This agrees with panelbase and ICM who have a core committed no of ~1/3 or just over. Appeared in the ICM when people were asked how they'd vote if they were better off; 15% jumped to yes just like that giving Yes a 10 point lead. Came as a bit of a surprise to the unionist camp. Hopefully, they've asked the same again as with a  year to go and the white paper / joint UK-Scottish gov statement not even out yet.

     

    Fear is driving the no vote (see videos), not love of Westminster rule. It's really sad as the pro-union campaign are making 'British' seem very unpleasant. My best mate who considers himself British and planned to vote no is extremely angry and ashamed at what they are doing. After all, he's Scottish too, just half English as well. He thinks Scotland would be fine under independence and hates hearing it attacked, even if he is emotionally attached to being British.

     

    EDIT. Oh, there is something interesting here. Support for indy amoung labour votes is on the up.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Offset by a drop among SNP voters which is very interesting as these, if they said Yes before, are not in the end going to go out and vote No. Cold feet for now I assume and waiting to see what happens in November.

     

    EDIT

     

    Ok, they didn't ask what people would vote in 2014, just did the 'make your mind up right now' version. So not the best guide.

     

    Also this one they only have 40% saying their pretty certain they're for no, so within variance of the last one. No solid majority support for the union once again.

     

    And only 34% saying they're for no and certain to vote that way.

     

    Cool.

     

    And aye, once again well off on the Moreno demographic so a flawed base:

     

    24 30 (-7) Scottish not British 
    28 32 (-4) More Scottish than British 
    33 24 (+9) Equally Scottish and British 
    5 4 (+1) More British than Scottish 
    8 4 (+3) British not Scottish 
    3 5 (-2) Other
     

     

     
    Bloody landline polls! You can see how skewed they are towards the older, conservative age group who are more British. That's huge flaw in the base.
     
    Correct values are in bold: averages from the government SSAS over the past decade and don't change (people don't change their national identity on a regular basis).
     
    Ignore headline figures!
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I wish they would ask this:

     

    There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on the 18th of September 2014. 
     
    How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent 
    country?
     
    i.e. actually ask people what they're thinking about doing in 2014, not right now! Then ask them whether they might change their mind etc.
     
    People answer the question asked. If you support Devo max and are asked this (e.g. MORI):
     
    Should Scotland be an independent country?

     

    You say no of course.

     

    However, that doesn't mean you won't vote Yes if we get to referendum day and there's no devo max on offer. The first question prompts you to forward project and consider what you will do based on the way things seem to be going. The second is just your current default position today.

     

    That's why when you dig into the tables, only 1/3 core No comes up again and again. It is what the pro-union campaign can rely on, the rest are up for grabs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Landline polls are NOT skewed towards older people SS.

    Any decent pollster or research co. will ensure fair representation across age groups, if that's what is required.

    If anything online is riskier due to chance of contamination i.e. the wrong person completing. In fact that's a well known risk of online research compared to telephone. Fact.

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Landline polls are NOT skewed towards older people SS.

    Any decent pollster or research co. will ensure fair representation across age groups, if that's what is required.

    If anything online is riskier due to chance of contamination i.e. the wrong person completing. In fact that's a well known risk of online research compared to telephone. Fact.

     

    So tell me which BPC registered pollsters in the UK use landlines only?

     

    Here's a list you can pick from:

     

    TNS-BMRB

    MORI

    ICM

    Panelbase

    Comres

    Survation

    Angus Reid / VC

    Populus

    Opinium

    Yougov

     

     

    And why MORI can't get a demographically representative sample?

     

     

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/06/researchers-warn-of-bias-in-landline-only-phone-polls-18

    http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/mobile-barriers-uncovered-in-telephone-polls-20130913-2tqcz.html

     

     

    -------------

     

    MORENO weighted MORI

     

    Base = All

     

    Yes = 33%

    No = 48%

     

    = identical within variance to the other day's ICM which had 47Y / 37 N if 15% could be persuaded they'd be £500 a year better off.

     

    Note, anyone that finishes an argument with 'FACT' normally has no evidence to back it up.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Why do they weight polls anyway?, why not just report exactly what the people are telling them?

     

    Because what happens on polling day is not always reflected in ordinary polling (though there's no real president for referanda on such an emotive issue). The best example of why weighting is needed comes in large part from the 1992 election which saw a 1% poll lead that week become a 7% victory for Major, after looking over the result (and prior ones) it emerged that there is a 'shy Tory' vote whereby people won't admit they vote that way.

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    It's a nice idea, Scotland being an independent country. It's a nice idea Wales being an independent country as well. But idealism is often the road to destruction. The grass isn't always greener on the other side.

     

    Freedom and independence sounds good. But what if the new leader is bad as or worse than the previous? I have no faith in the SNP and Alex Salmond and Plaid Cymru. Seem like a load of leftist Marxists to me who'll sell out to the EU and whatever else benefits them at the first opportunity.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Because what happens on polling day is not always reflected in ordinary polling (though there's no real president for referanda on such an emotive issue). The best example of why weighting is needed comes in large part from the 1992 election which saw a 1% poll lead that week become a 7% victory for Major, after looking over the result (and prior ones) it emerged that there is a 'shy Tory' vote whereby people won't admit they vote that way.

     

    Quite, and it seems present in Y/N polls too.

     

    I love this example of it...

     

    Labour got 43% then the polls just after were showing this:

     

    Posted Image

    'I voted/support Labour guv, honestly I did/do'

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It's a nice idea, Scotland being an independent country. It's a nice idea Wales being an independent country as well. But idealism is often the road to destruction. The grass isn't always greener on the other side.

     

    Who's being idealistic? I'm very much a pragmatist and make all my decisions entirely logically. Just like I don't take polls at face value and instead dig deep, I do the same with how I vote.

     

    What is the point of the union? 

     

    It used to have one (empire), but doesn't have one any more. Everybody left. It's just Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland still to go. Then we'll return to pre-empire status, just as Italy is Rome no more, the USSR is just Russia again, the French empire is back to being just France... All empires return to where they started from.

     

    It is interesting to note that Ireland joined the union 93 years after Scotland. If Scotland votes Yes next year, it will leave 93 years after Ireland left. The tail end of the Gaussian imperial rise and fall completes itself. Poignant. 

     

    The grass isn't always greener on the other side, independence would be what Scots make of it, just as the Finns, Norwegians, Belgians etc do. Right now, most of the decisions about how their country is governed are made in London by people who don't live in Scotland and from parties Scots don't vote for.

     

    Note also that a wish to maintain the union (British nationalism) is as much an idealism as a wish for Scottish independence (Scottish nationalism). In fact the former is more of one unless there is clear purpose. For most of Scotland's existence as a country/nation, it was independent (75%, with the saltire the oldest national flag in the world still in use); independence is the more natural state for it. Being part of Britain and the empire is just a chapter in its history.

     

    I'm perfectly open to valid reasons for a new, modernised, democratic British union if anyone can come up with some. If I want to vote for a free trade/movement union, there's the EFTA/EEA/EU.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    So tell me which BPC registered pollsters in the UK use landlines only?

     

    Here's a list you can pick from:

     

    TNS-BMRB

    MORI

    ICM

    Panelbase

    Comres

    Survation

    Angus Reid / VC

    Populus

    Opinium

    Yougov

     

     

    And why MORI can't get a demographically representative sample?

     

     

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/06/researchers-warn-of-bias-in-landline-only-phone-polls-18

    http://www.theage.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/mobile-barriers-uncovered-in-telephone-polls-20130913-2tqcz.html

     

     

    -------------

     

    MORENO weighted MORI

     

    Base = All

     

    Yes = 33%

    No = 48%

     

    = identical within variance to the other day's ICM which had 47Y / 37 N if 15% could be persuaded they'd be £500 a year better off.

     

    Note, anyone that finishes an argument with 'FACT' normally has no evidence to back it up.

     

    I found this paper on the effects of not sampling mobiles from 2011:

    http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/700/art%253A10.1007%252Fs11135-011-9431-3.pdf?auth66=1379708491_d4907c56a705efedf9e4586b6d35bd2e&ext=.pdf

     

    With the key point - 'Currently, the dual frame sampling approach (Kennedy 2007;Gabler and Ayhan 2007) is considered the only feasible method to achieve high quality estimates based on RDD telephone samples.'

     

    Landline-only polls were part of the reason for the major divergence in the US election polling and tended to show Romney doing a lot better than the rest of the polls. I, for example, wouldn't be reached by a landline only poll in a way that a mobile/landline or indeed even an online poll would reach me. Now this wouldn't be a big deal if non-landline households were demographically the same as landline households but non-landline households are signficantly younger and poorer than the population at large. All methodologies have their flaws, of course, but this is a bias which is getting worse by the day as landline coverage gets poorer and mobile coverage more widespread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I found this paper on the effects of not sampling mobiles from 2011:

    http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/700/art%253A10.1007%252Fs11135-011-9431-3.pdf?auth66=1379708491_d4907c56a705efedf9e4586b6d35bd2e&ext=.pdf

     

    With the key point - 'Currently, the dual frame sampling approach (Kennedy 2007;Gabler and Ayhan 2007) is considered the only feasible method to achieve high quality estimates based on RDD telephone samples.'

     

    Landline-only polls were part of the reason for the major divergence in the US election polling and tended to show Romney doing a lot better than the rest of the polls. I, for example, wouldn't be reached by a landline only poll in a way that a mobile/landline or indeed even an online poll would reach me. Now this wouldn't be a big deal if non-landline households were demographically the same as landline households but non-landline households are signficantly younger and poorer than the population at large. All methodologies have their flaws, of course, but this is a bias which is getting worse by the day as landline coverage gets poorer and mobile coverage more widespread.

     

    Which is why ICM have now gone to a mixed mobile-landline for telephone polls. They use online panels too (for some Scottish polls). Just MORI still landline.

     

    For the MORI, here's the % weighting change on age:

     

    16-24 +17%
    25-34 +4%
    35-54 +5%
    55+ -10%

     

    So can't reach the youngsters, doing better in the middle group but still not getting enough of them, yet getting far too many over 55's picking up the phone.... So in general getting too many elderly British...

     

    Now this is where you see the real problem:

     

    Owner occupied -6%
    Rented council +47%
    Privare rented -1%

     

    OMG that's a huge correction needed for working class council renting who of course don't use landlines but mobiles more. And of course it's not a real correction, as it up-weights the views of those in council houses who do have landlines; it doesn't discover the views of those who don't

     

    Also one of the groups most supportive of indy....

     

    You should not be needing to up-weight a group that size by 47%!

     

    Anyway, internet access, particularly with the advent of smartphones, is expanding to every group whilst landlines are dying a death. Hence the pollsters all switching over.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Which is why ICM have now gone to a mixed mobile-landline for telephone polls. They use online panels too (for some Scottish polls). Just MORI still landline.

     

    Curtice is pretty good on it on his blog as well: http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/09/ipsos-mori-poll-unchanging-but-different/

    He doesn't discuss the landline vs mixed argument but he makes another very good point - no past vote weighting. As with the TNS poll which transpired to have a demographic which recalled voting more Labour than SNP in 2011, it's easy to see how not weighting for past vote can have a big effect on how politically representative the sample is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Ok, final post for today. Maybe time to take a break!

     

    But it's important to understand that both pro-union and pro-independence camps believe and have openly stated that Scotland would be fine as an independent country. If you are worried about voting yes, you are alone. Everyone else is confident, from unionist to nationalist.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    One thing is for sure in all of this. If Scotland votes no in 2014 it will be more of the same and the general decline will continue. A no vote is a wasted opportunity to try and make Scotland a better place to live. It's a vote to keep unionist politicions in their cosy jobs in London with inflated salaries and a view of Scotland as where they came from not where they belong. It's a vote to keep Scotland down trodden, ruled not governed. Scot's on both sides of the debate will come away feeling empty. At the moment everyone is talking about Scotland and we live in exciting times for our nation. A yes vote will wake up our nation from the current stalemate and energise it's population. It will give us something to feel proud about instead of weary and tired of. This is our moment in history and only a yes vote can drive away the doom merchants who have no ambition for Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

     

    One thing is for sure in all of this. If Scotland votes no in 2014 it will be more of the same and the general decline will continue. A no vote is a wasted opportunity to try and make Scotland a better place to live. It's a vote to keep unionist politicions in their cosy jobs in London with inflated salaries and a view of Scotland as where they came from not where they belong. It's a vote to keep Scotland down trodden, ruled not governed. Scot's on both sides of the debate will come away feeling empty. At the moment everyone is talking about Scotland and we live in exciting times for our nation. A yes vote will wake up our nation from the current stalemate and energise it's population. It will give us something to feel proud about instead of weary and tired of. This is our moment in history and only a yes vote can drive away the doom merchants who have no ambition for Scotland.

    Interesting release from the IFS. Seems to doubt Scotland's finances if independent.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/independent-scotland-may-need-15-public-spending-cut-ifs-says.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    More scaremongering.

    For the past 30 years, Scotland has contributed more to the UK Treasury than it has received. So if big cuts will be needed in Scotland if Independence is gained, then it follows that it will be even worse for the rest of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Fiscal_Studies

     

    ...The Institute came into existence because four financiers - a banker and Conservative Party politician (Will Hopper), an investment trust manager (Bob Buist), a stockbroker (Nils Taube) and a tax consultant (John Chown)...

     

    ...Left-wing think tank Tax Research UK has said that "Institute for Fiscal Studies is a body that persistently recommends tax increases that benefit the wealthiest in society at cost to those who make their living from work and the poorest in society."...

     

    Tory think tank says Scotland canny dae it.

     

    Quelle surprise.

     

    Thinks the UK can't either. Maybe it should hand over governance to Germany? They seem to be far better at running their country.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22765940

     

    Families to be £1,800 a year worse off by 2015, IFS says

     

    I'll take my chances!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    If the yes campaign starts gaining ground next year. Just wait for the clamour of Unionist offering more devolution in their proposals. At the moment they think they can just sit back and offer nothing but fear. I heard Blair McDougal yesterday saying they needed to be more aggressive. I thought they have been nothing but aggressive so far in their negativity. Salmond is in neutral mode at present just watching them run out of steam. He will hit the ground running after the white paper comes out and towards the spring of next year. This will be the game changer and the Unionists won't know whats hit them. We are still in the phoney war and the media are the willing partners in talking Scotland down.

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