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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    If there is a will for a referendum on independence then there will be another one. Just because you lose the first one doesn't mean you give up. If you think it is right today then it is still right tomorrow. It just means the majority haven't agreed with you yet, but that can change like support for individual parties can change they don't just go away because they lose one election that would be silly.

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    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    A simple response to this is no, of course Labour aren't being shafted. It is the natural progression following devolution.

     

    Labour don't seem very happy at all with it at all. Calling it 'hare-brained' and in a big panic.

     

    Here was me thinking they were the party of devolution and the Tories the party of the unitary British state. That's been what they've been both saying since the 1970's.

     

    What is proposed serves the Tories well. We know that many now want an end to the union as Scotland is just a pain in the behind for them. Senior figures have admitted as much when secretly filmed.

     

    I can understand it. The tail can only go on wagging the dog for so long.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    This article comprehensively explains everything that we know about the Scottish media particularly the BBC:

    http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/7703-flagging-up-offence

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Better we scrapped Trident altogether and spent the money where it's most needed.

     

    MoD fears for Trident base if Scotland says yes to independence

     

    Whitehall looking at plan to designate home of nuclear fleet as sovereign United Kingdom territory

     

    The British government is examining plans to designate the Scottish military base that houses the Trident nuclear deterrent as sovereign United Kingdom territory if the people of Scotland vote for independence in next year's referendum.

     

    In a move that sparked an angry reaction from the SNP, which vowed to rid Scotland of nuclear weapons as quickly as possible after a yes vote, the government is looking at ensuring that the Faslane base on Gare Loch in Argyll and Bute could have the same status as the British sovereign military bases in Cyprus.

     

     

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk-news/2013/jul/10/mod-trident-scotland-independence

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     

    Better we scrapped Trident altogether and spent the money where it's most needed.

     

    MoD fears for Trident base if Scotland says yes to independence

     

    Whitehall looking at plan to designate home of nuclear fleet as sovereign United Kingdom territory

     

     

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk-news/2013/jul/10/mod-trident-scotland-independence

     

     

    Aye, I saw this. It does seem Whitehall wants things over quickly and smoothly with a Yes vote in 2014. 

     

    What else would such a pompous imperialistic suggestion hope to achieve?

     

    EDIT. Oh cool. The BBC's run with this too.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23265886

     

    Next up they'll be proposing to re-introduce the poll tax.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Aye, I saw this. It does seem Whitehall wants things over quickly and smoothly with a Yes vote in 2014. 

     

    What else would such a pompous imperialistic suggestion hope to achieve?

     

    EDIT. Oh cool. The BBC's run with this too.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23265886

     

    Next up they'll be proposing to re-introduce the poll tax.

     

    No,no SS. Timing. That will a be a couple of weeks before the vote.

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    A few days ago Project Fear were scaremongering about postal services in rural Scotland, now it's confirmed the Royal Mail will be flogged off within a matter of months. There is no greater risk to our postal services, how long will the universal service obligation last? I'm sick to the back teeth of the 'seller does not ship to Scottish Islands' crap despite living in the Centre of Inverness with a city centre post code, esp on Ebay where the plain geographically ignorant select that option simply because fleabay provides it as an option!

    Edited by skifreak
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Michael Kelly has out done himself in the Scotsman today. You have to read it but I warn you it will either make you laugh or cry. His closing remark is that Salmond has denied Murray a vote in the referendum. just sheer and utter stupidity. Does he want to open up the vote to all non resident Scots everywhere in the world. The logic is baffling it would mean that people outwith Scotland would decide our countries future.As for the Trident issue it is just nonsense not even worth talking about.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Iain MacWhirter in today's Herald coming to similar conclusions as raised in earlier comments here on the topic of English votes for only English matters at Westminster.

     

    To make No a positive, first resolve the English Question

     

    ...But these latest Conservative-Liberal proposals reek of political machination – a way of out-foxing Ed Miliband and securing the Lib-Con government in perpetuity. As with the EU, the Conservatives are under pressure from the march of Ukip, which advocates an English Parliament. Yet the risk of an ill-considered response to the rise of English nationalism could be more damaging to the integrity of the UK, ironically, than Alex Salmond's independence-lite, which speaks of continuity through the social union.
     
    As with the uncertainty over Britain's future in Europe, the referendum campaign risks being overtaken by events. If Scottish MPs in Westminster are to lose voting rights, the Scottish electorate needs to know exactly how this would work. If Westminster is to become a de facto English Parliament, many Scots might reconsider their views on independence.
     
    At the very least, Mr Darling needs to address this new English Question, and reassure Scots that they won't be pulled out of the EU and reduced to being a province of Londonshire.
     
    ------------
     
    EDIT. And of course another project Fear story looks a bit stupid now...
     
    Back in February we were apparently faced with not being able to send a postcard to Gran after independence.
     
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/fears-for-royal-mail-post-2014-x.20327512

     

    Fears for Royal Mail post-2014

     

    LABOUR want urgent answers from the SNP after a UK department suggested an independent Scotland would lose Royal Mail.

     

     

    Of course that's all changed now with privatisation due soon.

     

    From e.g. the Record

     

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/dont-let-tories-play-the-last-post-1523891

     

    Don't let Tories play The Last Post for Royal Mail

     

     

    Recent Yougov poll had the Scotland subset with 77% against privatisation of Scotland's nationalised Royal Mail service. 

     

    SNP and other pro-independence parties obviously against it.

     

    https://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/jul/77-scots-oppose-royal-mail-privatisation

     

     

    From YesScotland.

     

    http://www.yesscotland.net/uk_government_announcing_plans_to_privatise_the_royal_mail

     

    No 2. Branch of the Scottish communication services union:

     

    “Privatising Royal Mail will be the biggest threat to customers and employees all over Scotland but particularly in remote and rural areas if the universal service obligation is ditched."
     
    "People know perfectly well that an independent Scottish government would protect those services in a way that Westminster simply won't.â€

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Came across this little nugget today. A study of the topic of Scottish independence in the social media (facebook, twitter, forum posts etc) using over 65 million sets of data from Scotland.

     

    Goes some way to explaining why the social media (including this thread) is dominated by supporters of independence.

     

    Posted Image

    72% Yes.

     

     

    Findings presentation. Data on what people are discussing, i.e. topics most important to them in deciding how to vote.

     

    http://www.slideshare.net/sa/d5792b15ef05605f50ee977c10039b5f

     

    The main issues promoting a yes vote are Economy & Taxation and People & Society with the latter the most powerful issue reflecting the civic nature of the independence movement and it's aims to better Scottish society (more equality etc).

     

    Interesting quote about reasons for voting No.

     

    The charts also potentially reinforce a widely held view that voters that plan to vote 'No' are doing so due to emotive, irrational motivation rather than more practical reasons.

     

    Full paper.

     

    http://www.slideshare.net/sa/40b51efedfa58fcc57cdaf0238d9a6a3

     

    Of course this is not a poll weighted to the whole population demographic, but what people who use social media in Scotland think, thus it would expected to mainly comprise the younger to early middle age group.

     

    ------------

     

    Also ties in neatly with this.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23288931

     

    Decline in sales of newspapers in Scotland continues

     

    The print media has traditionally been very unionist to the point of blatant lies and propaganda. As noted before, over the past decade or so print sales have been declining in Scotland at twice the rate they have been in the rUK with this accelerating recently. People can see they're being told a lot of crap and are going online in search of information on what the real stories are as the web is not under the influence of the pro-union lobby.

     

    And on the same theme, the Herald now printing more and more pro-independence stories. Not fully balanced yet, but getting there.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/deja-viewing-unionists-tried-to-influence-1977-tv-series.21582724

     

    Deja viewing: Unionists tried to influence 1977 TV series

     

    THE collaboration between the three pro-Union parties in the Better Together campaign may seem unprecedented, but files from the 1970s show it also happened then as the SNP's popularity grew and a referendum loomed.
     
    Last month Labour peer Lord Foulkes tried to intervene over the Road to Referendum series on STV, written and presented by Herald columnist Iain Macwhirter, but in 1977 a proposed BBC series looking at how an independent Scotland might look sent the leaders of Labour, the Liberals and the Tories into near apoplexy.
    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    And there you have it.

     

    According to the same research, the SNP are not seen as equalling independence (by those chatting/posting online about independence).

     

    As this has been the main line of attack for the pro-union campaign, they'd maybe want to change direction.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/davey-doubts-scotland-will-reach-green-energy-target.21593299

     

    Why the online chat is pro-independence...but not because of SNP

     

    Three-quarters of those chatting about independence online plan to vote Yes, but not because of the SNP, a new analysis of millions of internet sources shows.

     
    Research by social media monitoring firm Branchwatch found most supporters were keen to distance themselves from politicians.
     
    Gareth Ham, head of political analysis at the company, said: "Campaigners in favour of independence are quick to note that their decision to vote for independence is in spite of the SNP or that the SNP is irrelevant to their choice."
     
    Yes Scotland, the pro-independence campaign group, reflected the need being seen online for a "non-party political campaign", he said.
     
    Brandwatch, which also monitored the online conversations during the last US presidential election said its research could not predict how people would vote but could reveal what was being discussed online.
     
    It's stuff like this that's important (Herald is good today).
     
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/a-scottish-constitution-to-serve-the-common-weal.21596982

     

    A Scottish constitution to serve the common weal
     
    The so-called British constitution has always been a mess.
     
    In the sense in which the word constitution is used from Poland to Portugal and from Nova Scotia to New South Wales – as a fundamental basic law that regulates the powers and institutions of the state – it does not even exist.
     
    Fearful of the democratising potential of a constitution that would protect our rights and hold rulers to a higher law, the British establishment has preferred to rely on the untrammelled power of a sovereign (but well-whipped) Parliament, a motley collection of statutes cobbled together over the centuries, some hallowed traditions made up on the fly, and a set of unwritten conventions that can be rehashed, recycled, and twisted beyond recognition to suit the needs of the Government of the day.....
     
    ....The priority is to prepare a robust interim [scottish] constitution, ready to go from independence day. Only this can guarantee democratic principles and fundamental rights until the constitution is approved. A detailed commitment in the White Paper would do much to distinguish Scotland's democratic principles from Westminster's shoddy expediency.
     
    Dr W Elliot Bulmer is research director of the Constitutional Commission. His book, A Model Constitution for Scotland: Making Democracy Work in an Independent State, is available from Luath Press, £9.99.

     

    Edited by scottish skier
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    I believe it will extremely difficult for the pro-union parties to trash the Scottish Government's white paper on independence, if a well explained and thought out written constitution would follow independence and contain specific individual rights that they know the Westminster Government can not match due to the current sovereign set-up in Parliament.

    How many countries have a second unelected chamber (HOL).... you guessed it one! Zimbabwe. Democracy in motion, don't worry my lord if you get caught fiddling the expenses or have a criminal record, you will always be let back!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    James Naughtie been given lead role in BBC's independence referendum coverage.

    he opened a question to Labour politician Ed Balls "If we win the election...", which led to criticism that he was not neutral as required of BBC political journalists....

    Yep the same guy good old BBC!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

     "If we [Labour] win the election..."

     

    There's very little chance of that.

     

    While most likely on the high side or variance, I imagine the ICM poll just out will have put the wind up Labour a bit more. 

     

    Con 36%

    Lab 36%

    Lib 13%

    UKIP 7%

     

    SNP 4% (48% Scotland, just a subset and small, but 3-4% is the common number right now).

     

    Labour should be up to 20 points ahead at this stage if they want to be sure of a majority. 

     

    Whatever happens next year, Ed will be losing his Scots MPs. They'll either be gone or elected with big losses to the SNP and no voting rights on English matters.

     

    Ed's well and truly in the poo.

     

    Why would folks in the rUK elect Labour? They have the same manifesto as the Tories. At least the Tories will do what they say rather than abandon every policy like Labour does. 

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Correct they have no chance especially with Milliband he is as weak as Chinese Tea. Not much competition even for Cameron who is not particulary gifted.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    There's very little chance of that. While most likely on the high side or variance, I imagine the ICM poll just out will have put the wind up Labour a bit more.  Con 36%Lab 36%Lib 13%UKIP 7% SNP 4% (48% Scotland, just a subset and small, but 3-4% is the common number right now). Labour should be up to 20 points ahead at this stage if they want to be sure of a majority.  Whatever happens next year, Ed will be losing his Scots MPs. They'll either be gone or elected with big losses to the SNP and no voting rights on English matters. Ed's well and truly in the poo. Why would folks in the rUK elect Labour? They have the same manifesto as the Tories. At least the Tories will do what they say rather than abandon every policy like Labour does.

    Those poll ratings are tragic for the Labour Party and good news for the yes vote, really if you're level pegging at this stage then you have no chance of winning the election. Milliband should do the honourable thing and step down as he's an obvious vote loser for the party.If the Tories pull ahead then that can only help the independence vote, at least UKIP dropped in the poll, maybe some sanity has at least returned to some of the electorate!
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Those poll ratings are tragic for the Labour Party and good news for the yes vote, really if you're level pegging at this stage then you have no chance of winning the election. Milliband should do the honourable thing and step down as he's an obvious vote loser for the party.

    If the Tories pull ahead then that can only help the independence vote, at least UKIP dropped in the poll, maybe some sanity has at least returned to some of the electorate!

     

    That ICM is likely on the high side for the Tories but a 7 point lead is what Labour have at best and that's very weak for this stage. Add in the very low satisfaction ratings for Ed and it's really not looking good. I don't know if we'll see a Tory majority, but probably the largest party in a coalition, most likely with the Libs again (the Libs don't have a lot of choice; without an electoral pact they're screwed). UKIP seem to have sunk back (down to 15% from a peak of nearly 20%) although I expect them to do well in the Euro elections (that'll have a an impact in Scotland!). They've managed to get the Tories behind an EU referendum and more rightward jerks on immigration etc. If the  EU referendum looks like a solid promise going into 2015 I think a good few UKIPers will return to the Tories on voting day.

     

    The Labour party have nobody to blame but themselves. Just parroting the Tories in a reactionary way with no vision nor distinct, more moderate policies is pathetic. I think the old left in Labour should break away to form a new party before the Blairites finish what's left of Labour. Personally, I have no respect for Scottish Labour at all. Aside from a rare few good eggs amongst them, I want them and their stupid right-wing crap nowhere near Scotland's helm. Labour for Independence - a proper centre left party - is what a Labour party should be. I might lend them one of my two votes in the future.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/bbc-scotland-gets-backing-from-less-than-half-of-scots.1373980990

     

    BBC Scotland gets backing from less than half of Scots

     

    Less than half of all Scots believe the BBC is good at representing their life in its coverage of news and current affairs.
     
    Just 48% of people in Scotland believe the corporation does well at this - the lowest proportion of any of the countries in the UK.

     

    "The [bBC Audience] council believes the BBC should be more accurate in reporting how the UK is governed, more searching in comparing public policy in the different nations and should achieve a better balance in reporting Scottish and non-Scottish news for audiences in Scotland."

     

    And from a report by the BBC itself, albeit it somewhat at arms length (and I understand, a year old)...

     

    I wonder what an independent poll would find.

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    And there you have it.

    According to the same research, the SNP are not seen as equalling independence (by those chatting/posting online about independence).

    As this has been the main line of attack for the pro-union campaign, they'd maybe want to change direction.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/davey-doubts-scotland-will-reach-green-energy-target.21593299

    Why the online chat is pro-independence...but not because of SNP

    Three-quarters of those chatting about independence online plan to vote Yes, but not because of the SNP, a new analysis of millions of internet sources shows.

    Research by social media monitoring firm Branchwatch found most supporters were keen to distance themselves from politicians.

    Gareth Ham, head of political analysis at the company, said: "Campaigners in favour of independence are quick to note that their decision to vote for independence is in spite of the SNP or that the SNP is irrelevant to their choice."

    Yes, so you can't accept this analysis and go using the general tone of 'Scotland are embracing the SNP more and more, so Scotland are readying themselves towards independence' now, can you? (Correct me if I'm wrong but you have been saying that a few months back) Look at the Québécois separatist party being re-elected (with an absolute majority, I believe) after both of their independence referendums were voted against.

    I also don't feel the need for neither a British nor a Scottish constitution. Principles are good, but they are a fossilised set of principles. In America, I perceive it being used as a last ditch attempt to prevent otherwise logical and generally progressive legislation being passed. The UN Charter of Human Rights is more along the lines of something I'd support.

    Edited by Harve
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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    The main criticism I've heard of the BBC is that BBC Alba is perhaps the most prominent programming in Scotland, despite being broadcast in a language that only a small minority speak. I'm all for the existence of Gaelic programming, but so much more Scottish programming could be broadcast to much more of Scotland if funding was directed more towards programmes in English (or Scots).

    I doubt a pro-union bias would be too much of a concern for many Scots given that many are in favour of the union, although it would undoubtedly dissatisfy the significant, but minority, Yes camp.

    Edited by Harve
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The main criticism I've heard of the BBC is that BBC Alba is perhaps the most prominent programming in Scotland, despite being broadcast in a language that only a small minority speak. I'm all for the existence of Gaelic programming, but so much more Scottish programming could be broadcast to much more of Scotland if funding was directed more towards programmes in English (or Scots).I doubt a pro-union bias would be too much of a concern for many Scots given that many are in favour of the union, although it would undoubtedly dissatisfy the significant, but minority, Yes camp.

     

    BBC Alba produces very good programming. It's by and large independent of the BBC however in the sense while the BBC owns half of it (the Scottish Gaelic Media Service own the other half), it's programming is decided independently by its own board etc. London/Pacific Quay don't have any real say.

     

    I would be very concerned if the BBC was overtly pro-independence to the point of misinformation etc. I know a few people who are quite pro-union and are angry that the BBC is biased towards the union (so much so few of them are turning to Yes having discovered they've been led down the garden path on various issues by the BBC and other pro-union media). It's supposed to be impartial.

     

    Anyway, when around half the population (taking into account any error) are unhappy with a state broadcaster, something really needs to be done.

     

    The survey was not about independence, but about how news and current affairs etc are dealt with. When Scots watch the main BBC news, they get to hear about NHS reforms in England, how England are doing at the footie etc. These things are probably not of great interest to people living in Scotland. At the moment, most of Scotland's licence fees go to London with an increasingly small budget going to BBC Scotland. I'd rather all the license fees in Scotland went to BBC Scotland and it could use these to buy/contributed to what London BBC programming Scottish audiences wanted. Could also do a main Scottish news which focussed on local, UK and world news relevant to Scotland.

     

    Note that the last poll had minority support for 'No' next year (44%, falling) with only a 5% swing needed for yes.

     

    EDIT. Note also on the doorsteps (Yes campaign surveys) the general response is ~1/3 Yes, ~1/3 No, remainder unsure as per core numbers discussed earlier in the thread. The ~1/3 Yes are the core want independence come hell or high water. The ~1/3 No are those for the status quo, i.e. the non devo-maxers (~7/10 support for DM / FFA).

     

    Basically, in really simple terms, a large majority of Scots want (all or all but) 'independence' in the political sense (Scottish Government runs just about everything or everything) but ~half of these are to varying degrees uncomfortable with the idea of ending Britain. It's a conflict between the social/cultural union, family ties etc, and the political union. The former (social union, shared history, identity etc) is liked by many/they feel an attachment to Britain as a second part of their national identity (Scottish and British), but there's little love for Westminster rule in Scotland.

     

    They're being backed into a corner however and the polls strongly suggest the No campaign peaked late last year (after an initial Yes peak late in 2011). I'm seeing some big shifts appearing (in Y/N) and VI (recently there seems to be a resurgence in SNP for Westminster in addition to holding landslide values for Holyrood) since the beginning of the year and very noticeably from May (UKIP/EU exit factor kicking in?). I previously predicted Y/N should close towards level pegging by the end of 2013. Early indications are this is what's happening. Only time will tell.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Well SS be prepared for a positive shock.

     

    My mother, a very left wing(has voted for Sheridan's lot) and has voted Labour/Socialist all her days told me last night she was voting Yes in the referendum.

     

    If my mother, who sits in the worst demographic for the Yes campaign (over 70, female, very left wing) can vote Yes then the No vote are in big trouble.

     

    I have and still think the No will shade it but for the first time a portion of me is thinking that Yes might carry it.

     

    You see, like many swaying No voters she has no particular interest in being "British", she is more concerned with Social justice and decent health service and who can best deliver those goals.

     

    With Labour London in the same bed with the Tories/Libs then I can see why she has moved into the Yes camp.

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    Anyway, when around half the population (taking into account any error) are unhappy with a state broadcaster, something really needs to be done.The survey was not about independence, but about how news and current affairs etc are dealt with. When Scots watch the main BBC news, they get to hear about NHS reforms in England, how England are doing at the footie etc. These things are probably not of great interest to people living in Scotland. At the moment, most of Scotland's licence fees go to London with an increasingly small budget going to BBC Scotland. I'd rather all the license fees in Scotland went to BBC Scotland and it could use these to buy/contributed to what London BBC programming Scottish audiences wanted. Could also do a main Scottish news which focussed on local, UK and world news relevant to Scotland.They're being backed into a corner however and the polls strongly suggest the No campaign peaked late last year (after an initial Yes peak late in 2011). I'm seeing some big shifts appearing (in Y/N) and VI (recently there seems to be a resurgence in SNP for Westminster in addition to holding landslide values for Holyrood) since the beginning of the year and very noticeably from May (UKIP/EU exit factor kicking in?). I previously predicted Y/N should close towards level pegging by the end of 2013. Early indications are this is what's happening. Only time will tell.

    (I'd agree with everything I've deleted - I'm not ignoring it!)And yes, I'm not saying the survey is a good result for any UK country. I'd love to know 'why' because I think the BBC do their job very well when it comes to the actual broadcasting and content. I was also amused when the BBC got the inevitable complaints of lack of impartiality in coverage of Thatcher's death, but the numbers were restricted to a few hundred and the number complaining the coverage of her legacy was too positive and the number complaining it was too negative were more or less identical!Since politics is so devolved to Scotland now, there really should be more allocation to 'local' news. In England, the regional news seems to always be having a slow news day but the Scottish parliament isn't often covered in the National section (admittedly I rarely watch the news and prefer to get it online).You've already made the fallacy of equalling support for the SNP with support for independence in that last paragraph - unless you'd like to discard the analysis (which I wouldn't). Edited by Harve
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    You've already made the fallacy of equalling support for the SNP with support for independence in that last paragraph - unless you'd like to discard the analysis (which I wouldn't).

     

    A vote for the SNP is not specifically a vote for independence, particularly at Holyrood (my best mate considers himself British as he has parents from both sides of the border and in his heart is for the union even though he voted SNP in 2011... although I note his head is being turned to independence by the No campaign). The two are related of course as the majority of SNP voters support independence.

     

    What is important to consider on this issue is that SNP support for Holyrood and for Westminster are two quite different things. There is only one reason you vote SNP for Westminster. They can't form the UK government. Neither would any UK party work with them in coalition. If you vote them for Westminster they will have no direct impact on UK policy.

     

    The reason for voting SNP for Westminster is what the unionist parties have always told Scotland for nearly a century: 'If you want independence, vote SNP [for Westminster]'. That is the mandate that the SNP have stood for since they were formed (1928-1934). If Scotland votes in majority for the SNP at Westminster, the union ends.

     

    There's a referendum on Scottish independence at every UKGE. It's FPTP and a fear of the Tories (since the 60's/70's) that's kept it in check. It's the reason Scotland was given a devolution referendum in 1997; fear that the SNP would be elected in majority given polls showed Scotland was ready to leave.

     

    So we have one referendum in 2014, then another straight afterwards in 2015. Hotly followed by another potential one in 2016+ (it would once again be on SNP and other indy party manifestos), presuming the first 2 do not deliver. If the electorate wants it of course.

     

    You can see it in polling data. SNP support for Westminster quite closely parallels Y/N polls. It hit 47%+ in late 2011 when Y/N polls showed the Y ahead. It then dropped back over 2012 (to touching 40%) as the Y dropped back and No overtook it. Then, as posted before, SNP for Westminster started to rise again at the beginning of this year as Y started to rise again and No started to fall (only one poll from MORI does not fit the trend, all the others do, and it was 'rogue' but within its own variance). 

     

    It's associated with a group of 10-15% SNP-Labour swing voters which emerged from 2003 onwards as the nature of New Labour emerged. Some of these keep still hanging on to Labour (Westminster, having given up on Labour for Holyrood) in some vain hope that things will be ok. They did it briefly in 2010 to ahead of May 2011 after previously turning to the SNP (2009 poll peak over 40%) in a panic at the return of the Tories. However, it was a gut reaction, hence the collapse and sudden swing back to the SNP in a matter of weeks ahead of polling day (reflecting true support). Some then swung back again in 2012 as nerves kicked in, but this was mainly seen in Westminster VI, with Holyrood VI remaining largely steady (possible slight, similar trend). A small minority of these swing voters giving Labour/the union one last chance. Have Labour lived up to expectations? Results for the past six months suggest not. What happens over the next 6 should be very interesting (and I'll see if I'm anywhere close to the mark!).

     

    Also, to add a reminder. The Labour warning (they were still using it in 2010!) that 'a vote for the SNP [at Westminster] can let the Tories in by the back door [due to taking votes from Labour under FPTP]' might have had some truth to it in the 60's/70's. However, Scots voting SNP in Scotland under FPTP now does this:

     

    Posted Image

     

    i.e. the results of the Holyrood FPTP first vote for constituency. There's only a couple of seats where the Tories are contenders and voting SNP instead of Labour might help the Tories.

     

    A vote for the SNP [at Westminster] is a vote for the SNP.

     

    Is the correct slogan (and independence of course).

    Edited by scottish skier
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  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Another Better Together scandal about to break?

     

    https://twitter.com/BBCRaymondB/status/358231284222402560

     

    From BBC Scotland's RB.

     

    4M #indyref voters to be categorised into 40 "tribes" by @UK_Together using so called "Patriot" system with info from credit agency Experian

     

    Patriots? I wonder if this is a measure of how 'British' Scots are. Or maybe how much of a 'real scot' we are, such is their favoured term for Scots who support the union (johnny foreigners need not apply).

     

    'Tribes' says it all though. Aye, we're the colony's native tribes that need civilised by the imperial brits. 

     

    And data from Experian? So they're now spying on us, harvesting data from our credit records?

     

    Going to be interesting seeing how this plays out. Would certainly be just like BT what with their brush with data protection laws already.

     

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/better-together-campaign-broke-data-protection-law.18956788

     

    What's next, the PRISM system?

     

    ---------------------

     

    EDIT.

     

    BBC Story on it.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23379615

     

    Highlights how woefully inadequate and well behind the times BT are when it comes to social media. Also creepy.

     

    They have no idea what to do with it. This is largely because their core activist base are the older generations (over 60's - see photo's of BT meetings). Hence they have the problem highlighted in my earlier post.

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69584-scottish-politics-2011-2016/page-204#entry2736269

     

    For them, social media is about adverts everywhere, tricking people into liking your facebook page, harvesting as much data as they can from people and trying to access your private data through companies like Experian.

     

    If we take the BT facebook page, it is currently ~11,000 likes behind YesScotland with 3.5 k talking about BT and 12k talking about Yes. The likes actually look quite impressive for BT unless you take into account the 10's of 1000's of £'s they must have spent on adds to get people there. They've had about 10 major add campaigns (mainly on facebook, but also google etc) while Yes has done no online advertising (as far as I'm aware) yet BT are still far behind. What's really funny, is when they run an add campaign, numbers visiting the Yes page surge as well. Erm, what did they expect? 

     

    This is where the term 'cybernat' has come from (which is common in online debates in Scotland). It's a derogatory term invented by unionists to attack these mythical hordes of online people commanded from Alex Salmond's bunker that are horrible and vile, attacking anyone questioning independence. Actually, they're just e.g. an oil and gas flow assurance consultant from the Borders with an interest in the weather and politics. 

     

    The unionists have always relied on a compliant print media and the BBC to keep Scotland in line. The internet they can't control though and they are infuriated by that.

     

    Here's the disgraced (former Labour) MP Eric Joyce on the subject. When he's not bevied and/or punching Tories, he actually talks sense.

     

    http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/05/the-word-cybernat-is-for-losers/

     

    ‘Cybernat’ is a Loser’s Word

    Edited by scottish skier
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