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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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Given that i'm a Scot living in England i shall be fine either way but my approach regarding the situation is to take into mind that i consider small nation states to be obsolete in the modern world and see supra-national quasi-federations as the way forward (you see these developing in South America and Africa particularly) and so whilst that at first makes me lean towards an 'In' vote i then bear in mind that England may well leave the EU and Cameron stupidly pushed Salmond to hold this referendum before the EU one and so with Scotland being more likely to integrate in the EU (granted not fully at least at first) that changes things for me and so i currently lean 'out'.

Cornwall is not something i support getting independence.

I'd suggest it was not entirely coincidental that Dave - presuming the Tories win in 2015 - is thinking about negotiations with the EU prior to a possible referendum on leaving it following the next GE.

Because of course at that point - presuming a Yes in the Scottish independence vote - negotiations between the newly independent 'Kingdom of Britain and N. Ireland' (or whatever the name would be, and new flag associated with it) and the '(Kingdom of) Scotland' would of course being going on with the EU as to what these new countries do; stay or go.

Scotland is most likely to remain an EU country, the future of the rUK is less certain in this respect as you note.

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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Come on this is getting a bit silly. Your are getting wound up by a couple. I worked in Scotland for many years, many of my friends are Scots, Most anti independence as it happens, In all that time I've never experienced anti English or anti Scots feeling ( apart from the nutters). Personally, given the state of Westminster at the moment, I think the idea of independent Scotland is great and and I don't think it will effect one jot the relationship between the English and Scots.for one moment. It may well even improve it. Cornwall next?

thank you knocker the voice of reason.

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Word is there's a fierce backlash going on over Labour's support for the Tory retroactive law (government breaks the law, so government scarily changes law retroactively) on forcing people to work for free.

Social media full of angry Labour party members resigning membership, saying they'll never vote Labour again etc. Could this be the final straw that splits the Scottish Labour party? As noted in past posts, we now have a 'Labour for Independence' party and senior Scottish Labour figures openly turning towards independence.

The UK Tories are not fighting Scottish independence (rather facilitating it apparently for their own benefit) and based on various policy/direction changes, notably what happened yesterday, it would seem Ed isn't either any more.

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EDIT.

More on this from Wings over Scotland.

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Someone made a satire video using bits from the better together (pro-union campaign) video.

Better together have been running around trying to pull it, getting it taken off youtube etc. Of course, that just makes far more people interested in watching.

National Collective (artists and creatives for independence) discuss here:

http://nationalcolle...ed-re-debunked/

And it's already back up on youtube, so you can watch here:

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDrqamBHqLg

Apologies if this gets pulled too. Pro-union campaign running scared today!

Lots of people have a copy now, so it will just keep appearing anyway.

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well you`ll forgive me if i dont take serious anything said by an individual who has alba gu brath scotland forever in his signature because he thinks it means britain forever.

Technically it's Albion Forever. But I wouldn't expect you to understand even after it's been explained to you.

Besides which, what's the problem? Or do you have to be born in Dundee to be allowed to use the Gaelic these days?

furthermore , i think i will stick with the respected works of the likes of prof. william watson , kenneth jackson , p. b. ellis and many more rather than the deranged postings of a wind up merchant.

Blimey, you really don't like Derrick McClure, do you?

I suggest you don't read anything by Alistair Moffat either.

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Obviously the economy is important But frankly the opposition expounding the reasons to vote no are your biggest asset at the moment,They are a joke. Long may it continue. I'm giving serious consideration to joining Mebyon Kernow.

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Technically it's Albion Forever. But I wouldn't expect you to understand even after it's been explained to you.

Besides which, what's the problem? Or do you have to be born in Dundee to be allowed to use the Gaelic these days?

Blimey, you really don't like Derrick McClure, do you?

I suggest you don't read anything by Alistair Moffat either.

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who?

here essan special deal doon the chippy fur yePosted Image

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I heard a rumour that independence would mean that Scotland gets its own Eurovision entries rather than relying on the pitiful attempts by the UK.

It goes without saying that this is vitally important and has definitely sealed my side in the Yes camp. I really hope the Yes campaign focusses on this.

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October 2014 GE to follow maybe?

Cant see the coalition wanting to go right up to 5 years in Spring 2015.

Aren't they now reliant on a 2/3 majority vote to alter the 5 year fix terms? Or was that part of the bill that got blown up after the whole Lords/Boundary changes stand off ended in both parties shooting their own feet?
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LOL. Should have checked myself rather than relying on someone's comment for the day of the week.

Would've been nice to have had it over a weekend and boost the turnout.

I'm trying to convince my diehard SNP aunt who currently lives in Birmingham to move up here or at least stay for long enough to allow her to vote. 11 days before the poll you can register (allow time for paperwork to clear too I guess) so round up all the pro-independence expats and the Catalan and Basque students, give them lodgings for a fortnight and we'll guarantee victoryPosted Image

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2014 is not a vote for the Snp or AS this is a vote for Scotlands future by the people of Scotland for the people of Scotland Saorsa 18th september 2014

Quite, and the SNP will cease to exist post independence; losing more centre-left and more centre-right elements to form a smaller centrist liberal democratic party. I'd put money on them still being the largest party in the first elections, but without a majority so in coalition. AS would retire and Nicola Sturgeon is a good bet on an independent Scotland's first PM.

I used to vote for Margo MacDonald on the list when I lived in Lothian and voted SNP + an independent in the recent local council elections. While I'm likely to stick to centre-slightly left leaning (SNP/future centrist party) I'd also consider lending one of my votes to the left (e.g. a new proper Labour party or the greens). I might even consider voting for a soft right business party if I felt things were becoming unbalanced, they had good economic ideas etc.

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Quite, and the SNP will cease to exist post independence; losing more centre-left and more centre-right elements to form a smaller centrist liberal democratic party. I'd put money on them still being the largest party in the first elections, but without a majority so in coalition. AS would retire and Nicola Sturgeon is a good bet on an independent Scotland's first PM.

I used to vote for Margo MacDonald on the list when I lived in Lothian and voted SNP + an independent in the recent local council elections. While I'm likely to stick to centre-slightly left leaning (SNP/future centrist party) I'd also consider lending one of my votes to the left (e.g. a new proper Labour party or the greens). I might even consider voting for a soft right business party if I felt things were becoming unbalanced, they had good economic ideas etc.

You'll have a far better choice that us, mate. How am I supposed to choose between the Loony Left and the Rancid Right!

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Saw a report on sky news on Jeff Randall news show at 7 this eve, saying most polls continue to show a "No" to independence.

Is this true or just scaremongering?

Polls continue to show a sufficient share of the vote to deliver a Yes right now (35% at least). You need about 31-2%+ Yes to get a Yes majority based on turnouts at the last two constitutional referenda in Scotland and general election turnouts over the past decade+

The Yes was higher than the no in polls late 2011, peaking at 45Y/39N average. Yes then dropped back to core ~33% with the No brushing 50%. Recent polls both show rises of ~5% for Y since late 2012. The rise (2011 reaction to the return of the Tories/disastrous new labour rule) then fall (2012 'what does it really mean, I'm nervous') then rise again (ok, I'm going for it) in the final run-up to the time is to be expected. As unionist former FM of Scotland Henry McLeish said 'The peak for the union was 2012' and things will go towards independence from then on. This appears to now be happening in both Y/N and VI polls (modest Labour Westminster VI recovery halted and looking like going into decline again, SNP still on 2011 landslide numbers for Holyrood).

There is huge variance in polls (+/-10%) too due to various factors. Trust ICM and AR the most as they are online and weighted the most reliably (Panelbase probably not bad too). Face to face or telephone (MORI, TNS) are not good due to the 'shy independence' factor. Like the shy tory factor, but for independence; always show higher No and lower Yes than when people are given anonymity. Don't want to seem like one of those nasty separatist English hating bannockburn celebrating nuts who want to break up Britain to the nice lady from MORI london now do we...Posted Image

All Yes voters will go out and vote. Question is, can the pro-union campaign convince the masses who rarely if ever vote to go out and vote no?

My prediction is for ~62.5% Y, i.e. close to that for Y+Y in 1997 (was 74% for Y to parliament, but lower at 63.5% for taxing powers too). That would need 39.7% Yes in polls right now based on turnouts for the last 15 years/past referenda. Easily attainable given the average 45% Y seen in 2011, particularly given the historical long term average since 1997 is ~43% Y.

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There is huge variance in polls (+/-10%) too due to various factors. Trust ICM and AR the most as they are online and weighted the most reliably (Panelbase probably not bad too). Face to face or telephone (MORI, TNS) are not good due to the 'shy independence' factor. Like the shy tory factor, but for independence; always show higher No and lower Yes than when people are given anonymity. Don't want to seem like one of those nasty separatist English hating bannockburn celebrating nuts who want to break up Britain to the nice lady from MORI london now do we...Posted Image

I'm sure there are lots of factors affecting the polling data, but I'm willing to bet what you've written there is baloney. Why would people shy away from admitting support for independence because the person asking the question is English? There's absolutely no connection between saying you think Scotland should govern itself and having negative views of the English, and everyone knows that.

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