Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Scottish Politics 2011-2017


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

      (SS excluded of course!):)

    23 April, 2017 at 12:46 pm

    Re the recent political poll predictions showing gains for the Tories in Scotland note what Peter Hitchens said on polls:

    “Opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not a device for measuring it.Crack that,and it all makes sense”.

     

    (WoS)

    Edited by Blitzen
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 30.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    • Scottish-Irish Skier

      8874

    • mountain shadow

      1528

    • skifreak

      1435

    • frogesque

      1306

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

    Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

    I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    As I said SS, and as you confirm from 2015, the polls will be all over the place for while (if not to the wire.) :)

    Edited by kar999
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    8 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

    A few negative headlines from right wing papers 6 weeks out is really going to do nothing. The right wing press will bury Corbyn and Lynton Crosby will have lots of ammunition closer to the vote.

    Corbyn did himself no favours today with his comments surrounding IS, everyone knows he's anti Trident but a simple yes we'd wipe out the IS Leader if we had a chance would have at least stopped the rot.

    If hes against Trident then a way to mitigate that is to say the money saved there would go on extra police, increased spending on counter terrorism etc instead he just looks weak on defence and security.

    After a decent start the Labour ship just took another torpedo!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    This is so true.

    Only in the UK can a poll show a party of government getting 4x as many seats as the main opposition, yet that is supposedly them doing badly, rather than the latter.

    :)

    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Reasons the Tories want a GE quick smart #8

    Quote

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-20/alarm-bells-start-ringing-for-u-k-economy

    Alarm Bells Start Ringing for U.K. Economy

    Having long been considered one of the most stable democracies in the world, Britain will hold a new general election on June 8 -- barely two years after the last. However, with the Conservative Party on course for securing a comfortable majority, political uncertainty may not be the biggest risk facing the U.K. A weakening economy could well pose a bigger threat...

    ...The root of the problem lies in the sharp depreciation of sterling that followed last year's Brexit referendum. Devaluation has pushed up the price of imports, driving inflation to 2.3 percent in March. Furthermore, this sharp increase isn't over: The Bank of England expects price pressures to hit 2.7 percent at the beginning of next year, but some private forecasters think it will go above 3 percent.

    Rising inflation needn't bother consumers so long as wage increases keep pace. This isn't happening. Regular weekly earnings in the three months to February were 2.2 percent higher than in the same period a year ago, down from 2.4 percent in January. So inflation-adjusted pay is nearly stagnant -- and incapable of sustaining a consumption boom.

    -1x-1.png

    This is why May and co desperate not to rule out big tax rises and massive spending cuts.

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Panel base vote Independence 

    yes vote slightly increased.

     

    https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    IMG_6822.PNG

    Edited by Mark wheeler
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Oops....What goes around comes around as they say.........

    .https://www.thecanary.co/2017/04/23/young-people-nasty-surprise-sleeves-theresa-may/

    Edited by Blitzen
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    26 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Panel base vote Independence 

    yes vote slightly increased.

    Aye, two supposedly good polls for unionism (Tory share up? SNP share down?) yet both show a small rise in support for indy. That and the prospect of a Tory win has people saying they'll be more supportive of indy.

    My feeling is we've just had a bit of noise and not much is going on at all. Two polls do not a summer make as they say.

    Tory vote is up a bit; we saw that in 2016. This was predicted many years ago as happening when we reached end game for the UK (post Labour / Lib collapse which needed to happen for the SNP / Yes movement to rise).

    Certainly, if we are down to the Tories being the UK's last hope, it's all over, although they might go down fighting. :wink:

    Edited by scottish skier
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    7 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    Aye, two supposedly good polls for unionism (Tory share up? SNP share down?) yet both show a small rise in support for indy. That and the prospect of a Tory win has people saying they'll be more supportive of indy.

    My feeling is we've just had a bit of noise and not much is going on at all. Two polls do not a summer make as they say.

    Tory vote is up a bit; we saw that in 2016. This was predicted many years ago as happening when we reached end game for the UK (post Labour / Lib collapse which needed to happen for the SNP / Yes movement to rise).

    Certainly, if we are down to the Tories being the UK's last hope, it's all over, although they might go down fighting. :wink:

    I thought I'd tag this in SS it seems to make sense and follows what you have been saying to a large degree .

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    7 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Panel base vote Independence 

    yes vote slightly increased.

     

    https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    IMG_6822.PNG

    Doesn't include 16/17 year olds (which is fairy naff given that the main purpose of the poll was to guage GE voting intention) so would probably have support a couple points higher.

     

    Out of interest, does it include EU citizens does anyone know?

    Edited by NorthernRab
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
    17 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

    Out of interest, does it include EU citizens does anyone know?

    Since it was a question on the back of a GE poll and EU citizens don't get to vote in a GE, like 16-17 yr old, then I'd say it's unlikely to include EU citizens. Add another point or so due to that.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    56 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

     

    49% Yes (+4.5) and 51% No (-4.5) (changes on 2014)

    And this one doesn't include EU citizens or 16 / 17 year olds either apparently! 

    Something to watch, it's only one poll yet.

    Edited by NorthernRab
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
    8 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

    49% Yes (+4.5) and 51% No (-4.5) (changes on 2014)

    And this one doesn't include EU citizens or 16 / 17 year olds either apparently! 

    Something to watch, it's only one poll yet.

    3/3 showing a rise is strongly suggestive of a rise.

    If correct, likely a response to the coming power grab by the Tories to create a brexit 'one party state'.

    Squeaky bum time for May.

     

    --

    EDIT

    Note given the hardcore pro-UK vote is at a push ~25% of the electorate, it's perfectly possibly to see e.g. a rise in Tory share but a fall in support for the UK.

    Which is what our three latest polls collectively show.

    So, the conclusion from this set of data, if we must, is that end game is happening as predicted; the pro-UK retreat having reached the last (aka Tory) edoubt. 

     

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    On the topic of 'one party states' and 'cults'...

    Quote

    http://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-courier-advertiser-perth-and-perthshire-edition/20170424/281822873683681

    'There's no question that Ruth is popular, but the party is becoming increasingly centralised, and dissent isn't tolerated. It's starting to look more like a cult than a party'

    cult.png

     

    Edited by scottish skier
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Could have been more than one head on that snake!

    trussst-in-me.jpg

    Edited by Blitzen
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    How Scotland could look after the election if the current polls are right

    567567.thumb.jpeg.5347ceb7dad8a02518c0e2538c0649e1.jpeg

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    How Scotland could look after the election if the current polls are right

    567567.thumb.jpeg.5347ceb7dad8a02518c0e2538c0649e1.jpeg

    Can anyone really see heavily Remain voting Stirlingshire turning blue?

    Edited by NorthernRab
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Tory policy in Scotland is confirmed as follows:

    1) No Referendum

    2) No Referendum

    3) No Referendum

    4) No Referendum

    5) No Referendum

    6) No Referendum

    7) No Referendum

    8 ) No Referendum

    9) No Referendum

    10) The SNP are obsessed with a referendum 

    Policy documents which came through my door today:

    D39CB533-70EC-4E0B-A6A9-6F4D41674EC5.thumb.jpg.72b95ce564801d775a22f100858d6b8b.jpgA73CAB81-52DE-4F5D-8564-67D871043AD3.thumb.jpg.80b34c4328b731afcd21028358ea4e1e.jpg

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    How Scotland could look after the election if the current polls are right

    567567.thumb.jpeg.5347ceb7dad8a02518c0e2538c0649e1.jpeg

    What we are seeing is potentially a switch from hard core Unionist Red Tory switching to hard core Unionist Blue Tory, these are votes the SNP could not seek to capture. My feeling is the SNP vote will hold up better than that poll suggests.

    Still, it is to be expected that the SNP might lose a few seats but I don't think they will lose in Moray, Perthshire or East Renfrewshire.

    The three border seats and the Aberdeenshire seats are more of a risk, simply because they have a higher proportion of non Scots born in them.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
    37 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

    Can anyone really see heavily Remain voting Stirlingshire turning blue?

    I thought that indicates Perthshire turning Blue not Stirlingshire. Pretty confident Stirlingshire is the yellow below the blue on that map, not as far north as that

     

    6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    What we are seeing is potentially a switch from hard core Unionist Red Tory switching to hard core Unionist Blue Tory, these are votes the SNP could not seek to capture. My feeling is the SNP vote will hold up better than that poll suggests.

    Still, it is to be expected that the SNP might lose a few seats but I don't think they will lose in Moray, Perthshire or East Renfrewshire.

    The three border seats and the Aberdeenshire seats are more of a risk, simply because they have a higher proportion of non Scots born in them.

    Moray voted 49.9% for leave did they not?  This is all speculation due to applying a uniform swing to FPTP seats. I do think Perthshire probably will stay SNP but the three border seats and at least one in Aberdeenshire will go blue imo. East Renfrewshire and Moray are quite possible also.

    Edited by SW Saltire
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    26 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:

    I thought that indicates Perthshire turning Blue not Stirlingshire. Pretty confident Stirlingshire is the yellow below the blue on that map, not as far north as that

    You are correct, that is Perthshire.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
    5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    You are correct, that is Perthshire.

    These days I do spend most of the week up in Stirling so I should really know where it is on a map!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...