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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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3 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Sure, if you want to rely on opinion polls 7 weeks out. That's never bitten the UK establishment in the erse in Scotland, has it?

I have to say that I too find it quite unbelievable that the Conservatives will do this well in Scotland come June, but one can only report on what the polls are showing currently. I'm sure that if the poll showed the gains and losses reversed for the SC's and SNP then this thread would be a lot busier. But as you say, it is one poll 7 weeks out.

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm sure that if the poll showed the gains and losses reversed for the SC's and SNP then this thread would be a lot busier

It is late on a Saturday night, most people have better things to do (obviously not us saddos). 

I think/hope that poll is a bit extreme but I'd not be at all surprised with something like 46/25. How many seats the Tories would then pick up exactly could be down to the extent of tactical voting and how concentrated the Tory vote is in certain seats. 

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1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

The SNP are so obsessed with indy that they forgot they are meant to be running a country. Glad the people are picking up on this.

Well unlike HM Government the Scottish Government is actually getting on with the day job.

There is going to be tactical votes flying in so many directions and IndyRef / Brexit undercurrents that I suspect polls are not going to pick up the necessary detail seat to seat - evidence of a Tory surge will be meet with an increase in anti-Tory tactical voting for example. However in 2015 for the SNP the balance of the other parties hit the sweetspot, with Labour's continued slide into irrelevance the SNP will almost inevitably lose some seats because the split is no longer as favourable. 

Will Brexit voters move to the Tories, are they telling porkies to the pollsters? Close to 30% is probably the absolute high point the Tories can poll in Scotland, they won't pull all the Brexit voters (who were genuinely for leave) in, because a large part of those who voted leave in Scotland appear to favour a soft exit in the EEA to a hard Brexit. (There was also a chunk of mischievous tactical leave voting by some pro remain pro Indy voters).

John Major played the Unionist card big time in 1992 to the point it dominated the UK wide evening news, day after day after day of the campaign. He avoided a polling predicted wipeout and got 1 gain to take 12 seats, pro-rata that would be 10 in today's money (there were 72 seats in 1992 and 59 today).

Edited by skifreak
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38 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As an independence supporting forum member I simply cannot believe that poll with the SNP at 43%.

For me, that's a frickin disaster.

Well, it's 46% excluding DKs - and the very start of the campaign. 

Lots of work to do, let's hope for a pleasant May! (the month obviously...)

Edited by NorthernRab
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9 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

12 seats , 12 seats oh Lordy it's a disaster 

It's the equivalent of the first leg of a football match going 6-0 then the return leg going 5-1 to the same team. 

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6 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

Well, it's 46% excluding DKs - and the very start of the campaign. 

Lots of work to do, let's hope for a pleasant May! (the month obviously...)

That's basically the same as 2015 at this stage then, Panelbase was 42% including don't knows and 48% excluding them (I looked earlier but may be a % or two out). 

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54 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It's the equivalent of the first leg of a football match going 6-0 then the return leg going 5-1 to the same team. 

Well, yes it is in the real world with an unbiased press.

If this was to occur the union press would call it a great Tory victory and we could forget Iref2.

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7 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

Well, it's 46% excluding DKs - and the very start of the campaign. 

Lots of work to do, let's hope for a pleasant May! (the month obviously...)

Really? If so it would make this average higher for the SNP.

I'll update if needed when tables are published.

----

My lastest poll of polls:

Average of Panelbase, Survation and BMG.

Treat with caution as missing MORI and TNS to give us Telephone / face to face. These normally more SNP/Greens favourable.

46% SNP
26% Con
17% Lab
7% Lib
3% Green

If we included the latest MORI for council elections - just out of interest as it's our only recent reference here - Con would be 24%, i.e. no obvious change on 2016.

Things look very similar to this timeframe ahead of the 2015 election. We even had a Survation with the SNP on 43% at almost exactly this time.

Tories seem to have edged up a little on 2016 maybe, taking some more hardcore of Labour, and could grab a few seats potentially.

However, overall so far, May faces a sound rejection of her plan for brexit, with 7/10 - 3/4 of Scots voters rejecting it based on current polling. SNP look like getting 4 x as many seats, even taking the worse polls for them.

Worth keeping in mind however that the tactical (normally anti-Tory) vote normally kicks in just a few weeks ahead of voting day. 

Saw the SNP gain ~5% in 2015, so take the above as is, i.e. from set in stone.

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9 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Going up , but of course no one votes Tory in Scotland , those damn Lib Dems again , who?

https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/855919265756696577?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

The blue creeping north of the border .

If we want to do schoolboy errors again and play with single polls and their potential for huge variance, I'll raise you with this from the Daily Mail. :p

And if the Tories did pull off 30% - a crap result which is still not enough to put you into a postion of power - it would be a 70% rejection of May's brexit vision, i.e. a grand failure for her to secure a backing for it in Scotland.

C-DG9UAWAAExhxR.jpg

Edited by scottish skier
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I have to say I have a soft spot for Verhofstadt.

Only an amateur out of their depth would think more MPs would give them a stronger hand in negotiations. That matters sweet FA quite obviously.

Edited by scottish skier
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1 minute ago, scottish skier said:

I have to say I have a soft spot for Verhofstadt.

 

I agree with every word. The Tories wouldn't want to be fighting an election in three years time in the darkest hour of post Brexit Britain against a (by then, surely!) resurgent Labour.

In five years there may be some light at the end of the tunnel.

May calling this election is her admitting that Brexit is going to cause a 5hit storm. 'Get your heads down everyone, this is going to be a big one'

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46 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

If we want to do schoolboy errors again and play with single polls and their potential for huge variance, I'll raise you with this from the Daily Mail. :p

And if the Tories did pull off 30% - a crap result which is still not enough to put you into a postion of power - it would be a 70% rejection of May's brexit vision, i.e. a grand failure for her to secure a backing for it in Scotland.

C-DG9UAWAAExhxR.jpg

:pardon:Let the trend be your friend SS thats all . Scotland has long been a lost cause any extra seats helps . Tories gaining snp declining . A clever bit of journalism by the mail ensuring the Tory voter is not complacent and votes in the election the sun is doing the same.

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Apparenty Tories polling is its highest since 1974, Angus Robertsons seat perhaps up for grabs . This portrayed in both recent polls .

 

IMG_6819.PNG

IMG_6820.PNG

Edited by Mark wheeler
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15 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

:pardon:Let the trend be your friend SS thats all .

In Scotland, the trend is 'no change' within MoE. 

Panelbase hasn't shown anything outside of MoE for six months now. Survation haven't polled UKGE VI for a year, so there is no trend to look for in their findings on this aspect.

In terms of indy support, it looks steady (3% direct swing to Yes, closing gap by 6%).

And SNP UKGE share is largely irrelevant. People have secured a new iref in May 2016; that majority and mandate is carved in stone until Holyrood 2021. People can now return to their preferred parties if they want in other elections. This could be backed up by +3% Yes / -3% No, i.e. a swing to Yes but softer SNP support.

UKGE's are about Scottish representation in Westminster, certainly given #ref2 is now guaranteed. 

May has tried to make it about her vision of brexit and it looks like 70% at least, maybe 75%, will reject that.

By contrast, SNP are not seeking any referendum mandate; they've made it quite clear this is about May's vision of brexit, austerity, economy etc. People can reject the Tory vision by voting for them (or any other party).

Edited by scottish skier
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Blow for the SNP as prospect of Tory majority makes Scots much more likely to vote Yes to independence.

Quote

http://mailchi.mp/survation/support-for-conservatives-in-scotland-at-highest-ever-level-survation-for-the-sunday-post

However, more than a third of Scots (38%) said that if the upcoming election produced another Conservative majority government, they would be more likely to support Scottish independence, including 41% of those who are currently undecided as to how they would vote in another Independence Referendum. Two-in-five (40%) said that a Conservative majority would not affect their existing level of support for Scottish independence, with 16% saying it would make them less likely to support it.

 

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9 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Has anyone looked at the tables for last night's polls? They're a little odd.

Nope sorry. I've been on tour this morning, driving across the south of Scotland. The new motorway is beautiful, smooth and wide :) I felt quite chuffed being one of the first to get to go on it. It may only be several miles long but that's day jobs for you! 

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2 hours ago, scottish skier said:

 

By contrast, SNP are not seeking any referendum mandate; they've made it quite clear this is about May's vision of brexit, austerity, economy etc. People can reject the Tory vision by voting for them (or any other party).

So if it's mostly about Brexit rather than Indy then 1m Scots who voted to leave have got to put their cross somewhere, tactical or otherwise.

I don't think the polls will handle this or indeed the rUK Brexit churn accurately as the original Brexit vote was crossparty (including a third of the SNP).

Edited by kar999
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20 minutes ago, kar999 said:

So if it's all about Brexit rather than Indy then 1m Scots who voted to leave have got to put their cross somewhere, tactical or otherwise.

I don't thing the polls will handle this or indeed the rUK Brexit churn accurately as the original Brexit vote was crossparty (including a third of the SNP).

Sure. Most are voting Tory. 

SNP voters didn't vote brexit; they voted Scexit.

Just 6-7% of SNP 2016 saying they will voting Tory 2017, i.e. for brexit. SNP to Tory shift basically minor noise (4% of Tory 2015 / 2016 now voting SNP too).

Don't confuse a vote to leave the EU with a vote to be part of the UK. 

What's happening is Scottish Tory / UKIP / BNP / NF / Orange Loyalists are voting Tory.

It's end game. 

Labour are all but dead. Libs crushed. The last hope of the Union is now the Tories, hated by up to 80% of the population.

In this poll, only 20% of the electorate are saying they'll vote Tory for example, and that's at the point where they are the UK's last bastion and have no opposition in the pro-UK camp.

From what I can see, putting aside some odd issues in the poll, it is Tory turnout that's mainly giving them a bit of an edge.

In that sense, the poll is bad news for the Tories as it should give non-Tory voters a kick in the backside.

Adjust for turnout and Tory share drops away markedly; the support just isn't there.

Hence a supposed 'Tory boost' yet, erm, Yes closes the gap on No by 6% in the indy question. 

---

EDIT

Little trip down memory lane to ~7 weeks before the May 2015 UKGE.

Couple of examples of polls with difference ( ) from the final result.

Survation:
44(-6)% SNP
27(+3)% 2nd Party
15(nc)% 3rd Party
5(-3)% 4rth Party

ICM 'Gold Standard'
43(-7)% SNP
27(+3)% 2nd Party
14(-1)% 3rd Party
6(-2)% 4rth Party

Only in the 3-4 weeks before did the polls settle out, on average, to the final result.


Here's 2010 at the same timeframe:
36(-6)% Lab
24(+5)% 2nd Party
22(+2)% 3rd Party
15(-2)% 4rth Party

35(-7)% Lab
24(+5)% 2nd Party
20(nc)% 3rd Party
15(-2)% 4rth Party

In both cases we see the 'anti-Tory' main ticket take 5% or so in the last few weeks.

Not saying the same will happen this time, but it's happened at least as far back as 1992. Used to annoy the hell out of me watching SNP voters switch to Lab and Lib to stop the Tories at the last minute.

Edited by scottish skier
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