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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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Looks like May has at least been generous enough to share her happy pills and whacky backy with Ruth: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/election-can-end-snps-illusion-inevitable-scottish-independence/

On the other hand Ruth Davidson yesterday referred to English Tory backbenchers as the "Brexiter Ba§tards". I think there must be a chance Ruth Davidson will actually explode during this election campaign, how long can she sustain so many mutually incompatible standpoints!

Edited by skifreak
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2 hours ago, scottish skier said:

Incidentally, polling projected turnouts continue to show Scots about 10% more certain to vote than the UK electorate as a whole.

So if May does not get her majority of Scots MPs, a high turnout would strengthen the level of rejection for the brexit vision she's seeking a mandate for with this impromptu UKGE.

It would look ridiculous if the SNP get 45% on a 70% turnout but the Tories get less than that overall but still claim there's no mandate for a second referendum. I'm struggling to see the SNP not getting 45%+ but time will tell, we've seen swings in the run up to elections before. 

Voter apathy my bahookie! 

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It would look ridiculous if the SNP get 45% on a 70% turnout but the Tories get less than that overall but still claim there's no mandate for a second referendum. I'm struggling to see the SNP not getting 45%+ but time will tell, we've seen swings in the run up to elections before. 

Voter apathy my bahookie! 

I think May has lost it, or given up on Scotland.

I don't see it as remotely realistic that she can get a majority of Tory MPs here.

Likewise, the SNP would need to lose 27 seats for them not to win majority mandate for their 'vision brexit', i.e. further backing for the existing Holyrood #ref2 mandate / UK government having to agree to it.

May's gone out on a real limb here to seek a Scottish Tory win. Odds on that must be ridiculously high against.

Edited by scottish skier
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Since the last General election I guess around an extra 100,000 are now able to vote. Polls suggest these youngsters are around 70% for independence.

At the other end of the scale around 100,000 have passed away. They are 70% more likely to have been Unionist.

That is an 140,000 swing to the SNP across Scotland on demographics alone.

 

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Since the last General election I guess around an extra 100,000 are now able to vote. Polls suggest these youngsters are around 70% for independence.

At the other end of the scale around 100,000 have passed away. They are 70% more likely to have been Unionist.

That is an 140,000 swing to the SNP across Scotland on demographics alone.

 

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/weekly-monthly-births-deaths-data/2017/march/month-17-march-tab4.pdf

114,000 deaths

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/mid-15-cor-12-13-14/mype-2015-corrections-for-12-13-14-correctedb.pdf

118,700 moving from 16-17 to 18-19.

Surely that would be picked up by polling though? 

 

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12 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Surely that would be picked up by polling though? 

What polling?

We've only had 2 this year and from the same pollster (Panelbase). The last one was mid march.

Not much we can say. Panelbase predicted 47% SNP last time and they got 50%. So, they're saying the same as last time currently (47% SNP).

 

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The Tories really make me feel sick. This is what you are voting for when you vote for them.

Long gone are the one nation types it seems; them I could have found some common ground with on issues.

Aye, but Tories demand you provide every lurid detail on a form... call you in for questioning on it.... and they might turn you down if you can't prove it, say because the beast that raped you was acquitted...

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9 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

The Tories really make me feel sick. This is what you are voting for when you vote for them.

Long gone are the one nation types it seems; them I could have found some common ground with on issues.

Aye, but Tories demand you provide every lurid detail on a form... call you in for questioning on it.... and they might turn you down if you can't prove it, say because the beast that raped you was acquitted...

I agree with the sentence I have highlighted, SS. 

But surely, if a man accused of rape is acquitted, no-one can possibly have been raped - by definition? Though, that said, I suspect that many a rapist gets off scot free!

Anyhoo, don't 'alleged' Scottish rapes come under the auspices of Scottish Law?:cc_confused:

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12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree with the sentence I have highlighted, SS. 

But surely, if a man accused of rape is acquitted, no-one can possibly have been raped - by definition? Though, that said, I suspect that many a rapist gets off scot free!

Anyhoo, don't 'alleged' Scottish rapes come under the auspices of Scottish Law?:cc_confused:

That's exactly what I meant. Acquitted means found not guilty, which does not mean they are not guilty. In Scotland you of course have 'not proven' too.

As we know, rape can often come down to the word of the victim versus that of the rapist. The rapist could be a partner too.

This is why reporting and conviction have long been problems; a similar case for most abusive crimes of this nature.

Edited by scottish skier
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Proud.

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/d06733c0-25a7-11e7-939c-aada186fb1ac/question/1b273fe0-25a8-11e7-bd3e-9af33598e109/region

To what extent would you support or oppose reducing the voting age to 16 for all UK elections?
48% Support
32% Oppose

I'm in the correct tent too:

SNP Voters
67% Support
13% Oppose

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

My mum had Panelbase asking her questions this morning so hopefully we'll get a full Scottish poll out over the next few days.

It would be much more useful if we had polls from TNS and MORI.

We only have panelbase to go on at the moment, and another will not be that useful as a result, not unless it shows a change significantly outside standard variance. 

We need a basket of polls to average, including online and telephone / doorstep.

Hopefully STV get MORI to do one for them or something.

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Brexit boom developing nicely.

Quote

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKBN17N0V3

UK retail sales post biggest quarterly fall since 2010 as inflation hits consumers

A shopper reaches for a box of tea in a supermarket in London, Britain April 11, 2017. REUTERS/Neil Hall

British retail sales posted the biggest quarterly fall in seven years during the first three months of 2017, as rising prices since last year's Brexit vote started to pressure consumers...

...That was the biggest quarterly fall since the first quarter of 2010, and is likely to reinforce the view among many economists that household spending - the main driver of the economy - is now slowing.

In June, I'll be voting against uncertainty and huge leaps in the dark. Also for a 'safe pair of hands' on the economy.

So not Tory obviously.

Edited by scottish skier
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42 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

It would be much more useful if we had polls from TNS and MORI.

We only have panelbase to go on at the moment, and another will not be that useful as a result, not unless it shows a change significantly outside standard variance. 

We need a basket of polls to average, including online and telephone / doorstep.

Hopefully STV get MORI to do one for them or something.

I know, the dearth of Scottish only polls gives us little to go on. The sceptic in me worries that there has been polling done which isn't good for Unionism and therefore the results haven't been published.

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4 hours ago, scottish skier said:

Brexit boom developing nicely.

In June, I'll be voting against uncertainty and huge leaps in the dark. Also for a 'safe pair of hands' on the economy.

So not Tory obviously.

But overall spending in retail is still higher than last year. Drop yes without a doubt but only a long term trend will tell the full story

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The BBC are opening almost every article on the Scottish politics so the public, mainly unionist, can repeat unheeded lies about the economic deficit of Scotland, the favored attack is the 15 billion deficit and we would be a basket case. I find this tiresome, so ask how are the Tories going to fill 134.1 billion deficit (ONS figures) and guess what...no response. Can not stay on the BBC site too long my sanity will not take it, but I feel a rational response is always required and to note we do occasionally read the nonsense posted.

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^^ Apt timing for the below summary.

The slow motion train crash is developing step by step for all to see.

Hence the enormous level of deflection going on by the likes of the BBC.

Unfortunately, it's only just started.

Right now I'm also not sure what will be worse; May having made a big miscalculation on the number of MPs she'll get, resulting in massive political instability...or her getting a huge majority, resulting in massive instability...

Either way, socially, economically and constitutionally, the UK is falling off a cliff in painful slow motion.

Quote

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-economy-sterling-currency-investment-cost-impact-business-financial-banks-insurance-retail-a7695486.html

Cost of Brexit: The impact on business and the economy so far

The level of business investment is expected by the Bank of England to be around 25% lower by 2019 relative to its pre-referendum forecasts, damaging our future productivity growth

Brexit negotiations have yet to begin but already the prospect of the UK splitting from the rest of the European Union has roiled the world of business, sending shockwaves through a slew of sectors.

Thousands of jobs look set to move and while it’s impossible to attach a price tag to Brexit, industry bodies, consultants, economists and accountants have already published dozens of reports on the possible impact of new tariffs and a restriction on the movement of people.

Here’s an overview of what we know...

...Despite an uptick over the last week, the pound remains some 14 per cent below its level on 23 June last year. While the depreciation is a benefit for UK exporters it also means the cost of imports has soared, which is the reason domestic inflation is now rising faster than workers’ pay, imposing a fresh squeeze on living standards.

sterling.jpg

...Business investment has also suffered since the Brexit referendum, as firms have been affected by a cloud of uncertainty that has descended over the UK’s future trade arrangements with the rest of the EU – and the associate threat of tariffs and customs barriers. Investment fell by 0.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year, contributing to the first calendar year decline since 2009.

investment1.gif

...

The British consumer proved surprisingly resilient after the referendum – a resilience that was responsible for the fact that GDP growth carried on robustly and the UK avoided a recession. But there are now distinct signs of shoppers running out of steam as inflation bites.

Retail sales, a crucial component of consumption, fell by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, the biggest quarterly fall since 2010, and many economists expect this to get worse as the year progresses.

retail1.gif

In January, the chief executive of the London Stock Exchange warned that Brexit could cost the City of London up to 230,000 jobs if the Government fails to provide a clear plan for after the split...

...In March a research study done by PA Consulting showed that if manufacturers pass that cost directly on to customers – and taking all the stages of production into account – the price tag for a new vehicle could soar by as much as £2,372 per car.

...The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors in a report published in March argued that almost 200,000 construction jobs could be slashed if Britain loses access to the European single market...

 

 

EDIT, another disaster in the making graph. The money folk have to keep the economy going by spending.

Household savings ratio:

savings.jpg

Edited by scottish skier
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Meanwhile, in 'all is well' brexit Britain.

We are actually approaching a state of emergency in N. Ireland, with direct rule imminent.

It's a f'n epic disaster the Tories have created. Whole peace process in shreds thanks to them and the brexiters.

But hey, let's keep that quiet right?

Nothing to see here, move along...

Quote

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/emergency-law-to-collect-rates-in-northern-ireland-published-as-talks-deadline-set-35641656.html

Emergency law to collect rates in Northern Ireland published as talks deadline set

New emergency legislation has been published by Secretary of State James Brokenshire to clear the way for the collection of rates in Northern Ireland amid the ongoing crisis at Stormont.

Mr Brokenshire introduced the legislation as well as providing an extension to the period in which a new Executive could be formed.

As May says, the whole of the UK is 'coming together' and 'uniting' around her vision for brexit.

#losttheplot

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21 minutes ago, mark4 said:

The BBC are opening almost every article on the Scottish politics so the public, mainly unionist, can repeat unheeded lies about the economic deficit of Scotland, the favored attack is the 15 billion deficit and we would be a basket case. I find this tiresome, so ask how are the Tories going to fill 134.1 billion deficit (ONS figures) and guess what...no response. Can not stay on the BBC site too long my sanity will not take it, but I feel a rational response is always required and to note we do occasionally read the nonsense posted.

The UK is an economic basket case, otherwise this wouldn't be ticking out of control:

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

It increases by £440,000,000 a day. I'm reminded of Soul Asylum's Runaway Train, "Runaway train never coming back, wrong way down a one way track"* 

For any unionist to try to claim Scotland would struggle as an independent country is hypocritical in the extreme. The UK is getting itself deeper and deeper into debt with no end in sight. The Tories used to hysterically shout about Labour doubling the UK debt in 13 years. Well guess what! The Tories have slashed many years off Labour's record. Dismal dismal stuff from the UK and any unionist trying to tell us that somehow the U.K. is wonderful and Scotland would be a basket case is needing a big reality check on many levels. It's the equivalent of someone in an out of control car about to crash screaming at a parked up learner driver "you'll never learn how to drive properly". 

*for those of you who have never heard of this band/song look it up on YouTube, bit of a one hit wonder but this one was good.

Edit: I only saw SS's post after I posted mine up...identical descriptions and I wonder why??

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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