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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

Sneaky bum time for Mundell. 

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Great stuff from Patrick Harvie, it will make fluffy's seat very tight indeed although he may get some Red Tory vote to get him over the line.

 

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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That's Scots obviously.

UK really coming together right now. Honestly.

Think 2015's 'Don't let the thieving Jocks have a say in government' was ugly, well now it's 'Don't let the Jocks, the N. Micks and the enemy within saboteurs'...

strength_through_unity_by_wilde1980.jpg

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Jeez can you imagine what the reaction would have been if the SNP held a snap Holyrood poll (which they can) without a mandate to take advantage of a massive polling lead and go for hard independence?

'ONE PARTY STATE!'

Well that's what we are heading for. Overwhelming majority will vote against the Tories - the people will speak - and we'll end up with a massive totalitarian Tory state.

I'll wager this move from May just ruined any chance of the UK hanging together for another 5 years or so. The sheer, breathtaking arrogance of the Tories - something which has destroyed them in Scotland, turning them to a loyalist rump - on show again for all to see. They don't even act in the interests of the UK never mind Scotland.

If you are a Scots Tory. your party just shafted you. 

Do you seriously think a big hefty Tory majority will do anything other than end the UK? That's how much the Tories value your vote. Don't give crap. 

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Having slept on it I am struggling to see her game plan.

If anything, the result of this General Election will cause even more disunity.

And what about the Scottish local elections next month. This effectively sticks two fingers up to it being a normal local election. 

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10 hours ago, frogesque said:

I like a lot of Green philosophy, less reliance on fossil fuel, reduce food miles, better quality housing, local democracy, properly funded schooling, neuk free, etc, etc.

Could have a lot of time for them in a post Indy Scotland. Standing aside in Fluffy's constituency would help bring about the key to Indy and the reality of their best policies. The future is bright, the future is SNP and Green.

 

I've read their manifesto for 2016 and for the council elections and I'll be voting Green 1 next month, then SNP. I find them a lot more in line with my way of thinking than the SNP.

I would hope in my constituency the Greens would do the same as they might do in Fluffy's seat. The SNP may lose this seat to the Tories in June. Having said that our SNP MP has been doing a decent job, he's very visible and easy to access. The difference between his Facebook output and our Tory MSP's output is immense, all we get from ToryBoy is SNPbad NO REFERENDUM!! I'll vote SNP in any GE for the time being as that's where the battle sits SNP v Tory, Greens would be nowhere here for now. 

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Not that I really want to see the SNP lose any seats, but if Lord Thurso regained the Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross seat he would be the first person ever to simultaneously sit in both the Lords and Commons and could vote against Brexit in both. Might be worth it just for the Daily Mail Meltdown!! :rofl:

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-households-idUKKBN17L0UG

Inflation eats into British household budgets in April - Markit

Inflation ate further into the budgets of British households last month, according to a survey of consumers, adding to signs that households will be feeling under pressure in the run-up to the June snap election planned by Prime Minister Theresa May.

Financial data company IHS Markit said on Wednesday that its Household Finance Index fell to 42.5 in April from 43.1 in March, one of its lowest readings since mid-2014...

...Adjusted for inflation, there was almost no growth in pay of British workers during the three months to February, official data showed last week.

"Households are ... more worried about their financial outlook than at almost any other time in past three years," Moore said.

The survey was conducted between April 12 and April 13.

Obviously, the logical thing to do is not vote Tory in forthcoming elections.

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I know the doubters will say I'm biased but I'm struggling to see the Tories making massive inroads in Scotland. You've got to go back to 1992 for the last time they got more than 700,000 votes, and to put that in perspective the SNP only narrowly missed 1,500,000 at the last Westminster election. To get to 700,000 votes they need to find almost 200,000 votes, or roughly a 40% increase. All the SNP need to do is get mobilised which shouldn't be hard. Logically what we'll see is the Tory vote going up to about 600,000 and the SNP vote back at 2015 levels or slightly above. A higher turnout will favour the SNP as we saw in 2015.

With their announcements today the Greens have basically green lighted a good few % onto the SNP and we've not started properly yet. We're looking at a straight fight between the SNP and the Tories and the Tories will lose. 

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35 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I know the doubters will say I'm biased but I'm struggling to see the Tories making massive inroads in Scotland. You've got to go back to 1992 for the last time they got more than 700,000 votes, and to put that in perspective the SNP only narrowly missed 1,500,000 at the last Westminster election. To get to 700,000 votes they need to find almost 200,000 votes, or roughly a 40% increase. All the SNP need to do is get mobilised which shouldn't be hard. Logically what we'll see is the Tory vote going up to about 600,000 and the SNP vote back at 2015 levels or slightly above. A higher turnout will favour the SNP as we saw in 2015.

With their announcements today the Greens have basically green lighted a good few % onto the SNP and we've not started properly yet. We're looking at a straight fight between the SNP and the Tories and the Tories will lose. 

Sure. I was at a pains to point out the other day that the much vaunted 'Scottish Tory revival' comprises, so far at least, of them doing considerably worse than both Major and Thatcher did here; the latter two being credited with ending the Tories as a political force in Scotland. 

I personally don't see much change; polls don't suggest any, although they're rather limited. There's at least 5 narrow seats, but it's something of a balanced see saw in terms of who might gain and it could end up being nobody net.

Given the SNP would need to lose 26 seats to lose their MP majority, its probably going to be rather uneventful here.

As for today, given the way Labour just voted in the House of Commons to hand the Tories a massive majority by granting permission for this GE, I'd be questioning whether I was still loyal to them.

This wasn't even them voting for Blairite policies or something, it was Labour MPs literally committing suicide en masse kindly so the Tories could have their seats.

They've utterly lost it. The whole of the UK has really; Lab, Tory and Lib. All barking brexit fever mad.

Unfortunately, the election looks like giving the swivel eyed nasty mad ones a massive majority, while the more pleasant centre left nutters fall on their own swords voluntarily.

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Lets assume for a moment the Daily Mail are correct about the Tory manifesto (though they may just be trying to apply pressure to make that the manifesto. Plus given Labour have ruled out working with the SNP, then we are in a situation where no UK party that will form the government will work with the likely majority of Scottish MPs in government.  Almost certain the next UK Government will take Scotland out of the European Economic Area with absolutely no mandate to do so and despite a 62% vote to remain in the EU nevermind the EEA. 

Devolution was born out of a democratic deficit, but far from devo max super plus what Scotland is faced with is democratic deficit super mega astronomically max! I think the SNP should hold fire on manifesto until the at least the Tories have published there's, because if the Mail is on the money on this then the SNP have to at the very least build safeguards into their manifesto whereby certain outcomes such as direct rule or complete exit from the EEA means a majority of SNP MPs from Scotland would have a mandate for a declaration of independence.  

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7 hours ago, skifreak said:

Lets assume for a moment the Daily Mail are correct about the Tory manifesto (though they may just be trying to apply pressure to make that the manifesto. Plus given Labour have ruled out working with the SNP, then we are in a situation where no UK party that will form the government will work with the likely majority of Scottish MPs in government.  Almost certain the next UK Government will take Scotland out of the European Economic Area with absolutely no mandate to do so and despite a 62% vote to remain in the EU nevermind the EEA. 

Sounds 'anti-Scottish' to me. :whistling:

--

I note Welsh, N. Irish Parties and European parties (e.g. Greens, Plaid) would work with the SNP.

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Labour are truly suicidal. The whole 'we'd prefer endless Tory rule to working with the Scots' didn't work out well last time did it.

And this time they asked for annihilation (if polls come anywhere near true).

Can we have the dull sanity of independence please? I just want to get on with the day job and avoid all this uncertainty and instability.

 

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1 minute ago, scottish skier said:

Labour are truly suicidal. The whole 'we'd prefer endless Tory rule to working with the Scots' didn't work out well last time did it.

And this time they asked for annihilation (if polls come anywhere near true).

Can we have the dull sanity of independence please? I just want to get on with the day job and avoid all this uncertainty and instability.

 

I think this ge will play right into your lots hand.  I expect you to be Indy within 5 years 

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13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I think this ge will play right into your lots hand.  I expect you to be Indy within 5 years 

Likely yes, also, if the Tories don't get a majority of MPs in Scotland (and instead e.g. the SNP do). Theresa hasn't a leg to stand on over indyref2.

She's asking for a mandate to lead the whole UK out of the EU, if she fails to get that in Scotland, then she's screwed. SNP have officially stated they agree with May's position here going into the GE. 

I must admit May is brave trying this. Winning the most MPs in Scotland is quite a challenge she's set herself. Maybe I was wrong about her being feart. 

N. Ireland too of course. While her chances are better there with her unionist allies, the recent Stormont upset means it's one to watch.

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1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

Labour are truly suicidal. The whole 'we'd prefer endless Tory rule to working with the Scots' didn't work out well last time did it.

And this time they asked for annihilation (if polls come anywhere near true).

Can we have the dull sanity of independence please? I just want to get on with the day job and avoid all this uncertainty and instability.

 

Yes, given Labour's appalling ratings at the moment you would have thought they'd welcome any offer to work with them with open arms!

As you say it's a bit of a head scratcher, as I think we've reached a point where saying they'd work with other progressive Parties could save them a few votes in England as well as Scotland.

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1 hour ago, lawrenk said:

Yes, given Labour's appalling ratings at the moment you would have thought they'd welcome any offer to work with them with open arms!

As you say it's a bit of a head scratcher, as I think we've reached a point where saying they'd work with other progressive Parties could save them a few votes in England as well as Scotland.

Ah, but..

Jeremy Corbyn has ruled out any post-election coalition with the Scottish National Party.

The SNP has said it would be prepared to work with other parties to keep the Tories out of power.

But the Labour leader said he did not regard the SNP as progressive.

(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-39648506)

I sort of like Corbyn in some ways, especially his resilience, but he's living in a fantasy land that no one else recognizes at times. He can't possibly think that stating he'll not work with the SNP is going to help Labour in Scotland, there's going to be no great swing back in to Labour in Scotland, not for a long time. Any slim, very slim, chance he has of ousting the Tories will come down to working with other parties. Maybe he considers that the price to be paid for a deal with the SNP (Independence Ref or Devo Max) would be too high, if so, state that. To try to claim that the SNP are not 'progressive', especially in comparison to the alternatives i.e. Tories, is just ridiculous though.

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Scottish subsample of a UK Yougov poll so normal caveats apply. However, VI looks comparable with full Scottish polls apart from Tory too high (usual for Yougov), so likely close to the mark if not more favourable for May than should be the case...

Theresa May had previously ruled out calling for an early election. Do you think she was right or wrong to go back on this pledge?
31% Right to go back on the pledge and call an early election 
48% Wrong to go back on the pledge and call an early election 

So Scottish electorate not exactly pleased with May's new GE.

Contrast England (rUK):

Theresa May had previously ruled out calling for an early election. Do you think she was right or wrong to go back on this pledge?
42% Right to go back on the pledge and call an early election 
31% Wrong to go back on the pledge and call an early election 

 

Certainly doesn't look good for May getting a mandate from Scotland for her brexit vision.

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Incidentally, polling projected turnouts continue to show Scots about 10% more certain to vote than the UK electorate as a whole.

So if May does not get her majority of Scots MPs, a high turnout would strengthen the level of rejection for the brexit vision she's seeking a mandate for with this impromptu UKGE.

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