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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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54 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

possibly 1% Dougal , however something's wrong probably the Tories should be on 45 % as the numbers add up to 101

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Thanks Mark. I'd guessed as much. A predictably one eyed presentation of the facts from SS there. It's particularly ironic as he has contributed to the caustic, self righteous tone with which the SNP chooses to present itself, but which has in fact cultivated a strong contrary reaction making the Tories more popular in Scotland than they have been for decades.

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It kinda was in the Green's manifesto about supporting a second independence referendum:

https://greens.scot/sites/default/files/Campaigns/Holyrood 2016/Holyrood Manifesto 2016 – RNIB.pdf

 

I suppose some clever clogs would argue that they didn't explicitly say they would vote for having a second referendum in parliament, but I don't know what part of "In a second referendum the Scottish Greens will campaign for independence" they're stuck on? To me that's clear cut, what does anyone else think? LibDems being a bit economical with the truth? 

To settle the matter we can run the vote again with the Greens abstaining this time. They can go for a beer or something.

Will still pass in majority; SNP have more MSPs than Con + Lab + Lib combined. :)

Edited by scottish skier
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52 minutes ago, Dougal said:

Thanks Mark. I'd guessed as much. A predictably one eyed presentation of the facts from SS there. It's particularly ironic as he has contributed to the caustic, self righteous tone with which the SNP chooses to present itself, but which has in fact cultivated a strong contrary reaction making the Tories more popular in Scotland than they have been for decades.

Sorry to burst your bubble but suggesting that the SNP were ever on 5% of the UK wide vote is wrong. To get to 5% of the UK vote do you know how much of the Scottish vote they'd need? 

8.3% of the population. 5% vote share would require 60.2% of the Scottish vote. 4% means the SNP are on 48.2%.

#facts 

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1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Sorry to burst your bubble but suggesting that the SNP were ever on 5% of the UK wide vote is wrong. To get to 5% of the UK vote do you know how much of the Scottish vote they'd need? 

8.3% of the population. 5% vote share would require 60.2% of the Scottish vote. 4% means the SNP are on 48.2%.

#facts 

SNP vote share 4.7% at 2015 GE.

And I didn't suggest they were ever on 5% anyway. I said some of the extra Tory gain must have come from the SNP. Mark confirmed this by supplying the information that SS had deliberately omitted.

The SNP have presented themselves so obnoxiously they have actually made more people support the Tories.

Fact.

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So 45% according to this poll disapproves of Nicola Sturgeons leadership in Scotland with a Further 10% not sure and of course the remaining 45% approving . Could this be to do with Indy2 . A very close vote coming if this snap shot is anything to go by but of course it could mean some of these people want Indy but don't like Sturgeon . Interestingly T May is more poplar in England and Wales than N Sturgeon is in Scotland , she also has a higher approval rating in Northen Ireland .

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5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

So 45% according to this poll disapproved of Nicola Sturgeons leadership in Scotland with a Further 10% not sure . Could this be to do with Indy2 . A very close vote coming if this snap shot is anything to go by but of course it could mean some of these people want Indy but don't like Sturgeon .

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I reckon so. SM is full of 'noise' and doesnt portray reality. I said a few weeks ago Sturgeon has/had misjudged re Indy Ref2 in Scotland. And with all the hoo-ha going on re Brexit one suspects the majority of people in Scotland are crying out for stability and a wee break from serious politics. Add in the poor performance of the Scottish economy relative to UK as a whole and one can see why her personal rating appears to be worsening.

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5 hours ago, Dougal said:

SNP vote share 4.7% at 2015 GE.

And I didn't suggest they were ever on 5% anyway. I said some of the extra Tory gain must have come from the SNP. Mark confirmed this by supplying the information that SS had deliberately omitted.

The SNP have presented themselves so obnoxiously they have actually made more people support the Tories.

Fact.

The SNP vote share is based on number of voters and your opinion poll isn't. Turnout in Scotland in 2015 was higher than in England. This is overstating your notional swing. You'd be better comparing to more recent elections where the SNP vote came off that 50% peak. If your idea of "some" equates to 2 then you might have a point, otherwise you might need something a bit stronger for scraping the bottom of that barrel. 

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2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

.....for scraping the bottom of that barrel. 

I'll see your chosen idiom, and raise you a 'clutching at straws'! :)

Happy Easter CatchMyDrift et al.

 

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7 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

I reckon so. SM is full of 'noise' and doesnt portray reality. I said a few weeks ago Sturgeon has/had misjudged re Indy Ref2 in Scotland. And with all the hoo-ha going on re Brexit one suspects the majority of people in Scotland are crying out for stability and a wee break from serious politics. Add in the poor performance of the Scottish economy relative to UK as a whole and one can see why her personal rating appears to be worsening.

Where is this Scotland of which you speak? I live here and I have not heard one single person "crying out" for stability. In fact, I haven't heard one single person say anything about economic stability, positive or negative. I do hear a lot of people who seem content in being engaged in serious politics one way or another. It seems to enliven people, not always in a good way but folk are definitely happy to be engaged with politics. 

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A poll by Orb international suggests there is an appetite in Scotland for a 2nd referendum with 58.7% supporting it on this poll.This will no doubt please the SNP and its supporters. The rest of the U.K. Are against it which is no suprise .

 

 

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Also of interest is that combined the Scottish people 69.6 % believe holding a referendum before brexit will undermine our ability to negotiate brexit not that this is actually being proposed anyway.

 

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20 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Where is this Scotland of which you speak? I live here and I have not heard one single person "crying out" for stability. In fact, I haven't heard one single person say anything about economic stability, positive or negative. I do hear a lot of people who seem content in being engaged in serious politics one way or another. It seems to enliven people, not always in a good way but folk are definitely happy to be engaged with politics. 

Funny how it's always the people living outside Scotland who keep telling those who live here that they are fed up with politics and referendums. Yes, there may be some slight jadedness but overall I don't sense any real lack of appetite. People are pretty engaged and understand the stakes, both of Indy and Brexit, and aren't in the mood to just 'let it lie' cos there's been 'too many elections'. 

 

17 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

A poll by Orb international suggests there is an appetite in Scotland for a 2nd referendum with 58.7% supporting it on this poll.This will no doubt please the SNP and its supporters. The rest of the U.K. Are against it which is no suprise .

Also of interest is that combined the Scottish people 69.6 % believe holding a referendum before brexit will undermine our ability to negotiate brexit not that this is actually being proposed anyway.

I'm sure @scottish skierwill be able to tell us but 58.7% seems like another increase to me. 

As for holding a second indy ref before brexit, I'd agree with the 69.6%. Then again, I'd also agree that holding one after Brexit would also damage the UK negotiating position, especially if it was known for definite that one would he held. In other words, the whole question of Scottish independence, the result of the Brexit vote in Scotland etc will weaken the UK negotiating position irrespective of when a vote is held. The only way to change that would be to have a vote now, and for it to be a No vote again. That's not on the cards though so the UK is going to have to negotiate with the EU with the poor set of cards it currently holds. 

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That was just a subsample of a UK poll, so we shouldn't read too much into it.

Moving on....

God the UK parties are obsessed with independence. Clearly, if you want the e.g. potholes fixed, then don't vote Tory / Lab / Lib, but vote e.g. Green or SNP.

The Tory leaflet (postie) I got here is all about iref2. By contrast, the SNP one (hand delivered) is about what the candidate proposes for local issues.

Seems it's the pattern country-wide.

Unionists need to get on with their day job, putting aside it's a blatant lie to suggest a vote at council level can influence bills in the Holyrood chamber.

You can vote in a pro-uk party to every council seat in Scotland; won't stop a new iref bill in Holyrood rather obviously.

I'll be voting based on local issues personally, so not unionist.

I'll likely vote for an independent I've voted for before as #1, then SNP and Green in order of preference.

Quote

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15227244.Tory_MSP_calls_on_voters_to__back_anyone_but_the_SNP__to_derail_indyref2/

Tory MSP calls on voters to "back anyone but the SNP" to derail indyref2

A SENIOR Tory MSP has urged voters to “back anyone but the SNP” and support other Unionist parties, including Ukip and Labour, to derail a second independence referendum.

 

https://wingsoverscotland.com/tory-council-election-manifesto-launched/

Tory council election manifesto launched

message1.jpgtories2017.jpg

 

 

 

Edited by scottish skier
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EDIT, as for 'damaging the UK's negotiating position' well of course that's what iref #2 will do.

If May wasn't planning to use Scotland's assets to try and negotiate a better deal for England then there'd be no issue here.

This is what her attempts at trying to stop or delay the iref are about, rather obviously.

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14 hours ago, Dougal said:

Thanks Mark. I'd guessed as much. A predictably one eyed presentation of the facts from SS there. It's particularly ironic as he has contributed to the caustic, self righteous tone with which the SNP chooses to present itself, but which has in fact cultivated a strong contrary reaction making the Tories more popular in Scotland than they have been for decades.

Lol listen to yourself, sharing a tweet of the initial poll data with no comment is a 'one eyed presentation of the facts' from an SNP supporter! The Tories are not more popular than they have been for decades in Scotland, they have 1 MP, a small increase in share of the vote brought around bigger gains in terms of MSPs not because Tory unpopularity changed but because the Labour party got what it long deserved from Scottish voters.

You have a slight point about a contrary reaction - the Tories are trying their hardest to stir it up and make Scottish politics as divisive and toxic as possible. They have in their own words described their strategy as 'Ulsterfication', it would seem that putting moon howlers up as council candidates is part of that strategy to try and completely poison the well. 

Their getting a reaction, but it's everyone else becoming more determined to stand against the nasty party, with the Tories now on the receiving end of a #VoteTillYouBoak anti-tory tactical voting strategy for the council elections getting shared and spread around by Greens, Labour, Lib Dem voters and not just SNP.

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11 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

 Add in the poor performance of the Scottish economy relative to UK as a whole and one can see why her personal rating appears to be worsening.

I'd take how the Scottish economy is doing just now than the appearance of faster growth in England fueled entirely by consumer credit spending of the back of a dysfunctional property market with grossly inflated prices in Southern England. 

The fundamental reason growth appears slower in Scotland during growth phases of the economic cycle is that there is a more rational property market and price increases are slower, in part because supply of both private and public sector new build is closer to demand. Other economic indicators such as unemployment, in particular youth unemployment have more often than not since I started looking during the credit crunch been notably better than in the UK as a whole. Indeed even in the last set of unemployment figures, 1/3rd of the whole UK drop came from Scotland.  

Ongoing investment in infrastructure to spread future economic opportunity more evenly across Scotland should help avoid specific overheating hotspots and help to at least some extent keep the property market vaguely sane, the flipside to this is that when economic gravity catches up with the house price fuelled credit bubble, rUK will crash faster and harder than Scotland.  That's why despite the headlines that Scotland is lagging behind the rUK, the GDP per capita is higher in Scotland than the UK as a whole, $39,642 for Scotland vs $35,671 for the UK in 2012. (most recent figures I could find quickly).

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Sorry to be pedantic, but Major and Thatcher did better in Scotland than Ruth Davidson's Tories.

Yes, you read that correctly;Thatcher did better.

EDIT

Oh and Thatcher + Major's Tories were competing against very popular / strong Labour and Lib Dem parties in Scotland.

That's a good measure of the, erm, 'Tory resurgence' under Ruth.

 

Edited by scottish skier
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49 minutes ago, skifreak said:

Lol listen to yourself, sharing a tweet of the initial poll data with no comment is a 'one eyed presentation of the facts' from an SNP supporter! The Tories are not more popular than they have been for decades in Scotland, they have 1 MP, a small increase in share of the vote brought around bigger gains in terms of MSPs not because Tory unpopularity changed but because the Labour party got what it long deserved from Scottish voters.

You have a slight point about a contrary reaction - the Tories are trying their hardest to stir it up and make Scottish politics as divisive and toxic as possible. They have in their own words described their strategy as 'Ulsterfication', it would seem that putting moon howlers up as council candidates is part of that strategy to try and completely poison the well. 

Their getting a reaction, but it's everyone else becoming more determined to stand against the nasty party, with the Tories now on the receiving end of a #VoteTillYouBoak anti-tory tactical voting strategy for the council elections getting shared and spread around by Greens, Labour, Lib Dem voters and not just SNP.

He deliberately omitted the SNPs small decline in popularity. He didn't need to remove it, leaving it in wouldn't even have lessened the point he was trying to make but as ever with SS, he just couldn't bring himself to present even the slightest piece of negative news about the SNP. That, I think you'll find, is a fairly safe example of being one-eyed in outlook and seems to be a common trait among hardened nationalists.

You can hardly blame the Tories for offering an alternative vote to the SNPs intransigent petulance. It's an easy target and it seems to be working well for them.

Corbyn and the SNP are making the Tories stronger.

 

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24 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

Just to follow up on the above, you need to back to the 1868 general election to find a vote share for the Tories less than what Davidson has achieved.

Which, incidentally, was a time when the yellow liberal (SNP these days) vote was at it's zenith; something which would nearly result in a form of Scottish indy if two world wars had not changed everything.

Are we looking at something similar?

With the SNP's vote share increasing again in May 2016, up on the landslide victory of 2011, and of course the unionist wipe-out of May 2015...(EDIT) not forgetting the rise of the pro-indy Greens as a force...maybe.

(Hopefully not the wars part obviously).

Edited by scottish skier
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23 minutes ago, Dougal said:

He deliberately omitted the SNPs small decline in popularity.

 

Dougal, if you share a tweet, as this forum enables using the twitter API it is automatic you can not change the content of the tweet.

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Leave campaigns had ample opportunity to clarify whether a leave vote was also a vote to leave the EEA. They chose not to because they needed the lie to hold to keep soft brexiters and hard brexiters on the side of leave, if leave had clarified for soft or hard brexit remain would have won. 

Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU, on the contrary May has absolutely no mandate for a Hard Brexit - so how does that make it the SNP that are intransigent ? Could it be Dougal that it is the Tories ruling Scotland with 1MP out of 59 that are the petulant and  intransigent undemocratic bunch. The party with 1MP out of 59 get to decide that Scotland gets dragged out of the EU against an overwhelmingly clear democratic vote to the contrary! I see from May's Easter statement that she's also completely delusional. 

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Not even going to argue with anyone over whether Nicola or Theresa or Ruth or Kezia or the other one is more or less popular in Scotland. This is the truth of the matter about our wonderful toxic Tories:

 

benefit.jpg

 

Cartoon by Chris Cairns, copied from Wings Over Scotland

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-most-sensitive-way-possible/

Edit:

"Suffer little children to come unto me", as someone is once supposed to have said.

 

Edited by frogesque
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Wow, seems May has utterly lost the plot.

Quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39607056

PM observes 'coming together' after Brexit in Easter message

..."This year, after a period of intense debate over the right future for our country, there is a sense that people are coming together and uniting behind the opportunities that lie ahead," she said.

Erm, righto. Someone's had too much sherry.

Although I suppose if she's including Scottish indy as an 'opportunity', then this makes more sense. Although I think it's more a must in the face of this mad hard brexit led by someone who's living in a complete fantasy land.

As for her Christian values, as others have eluded to on twitter, May would probably deport Jesus if he came to the UK today.

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Damn SNP, helping make sure there is still enough nurses for the NHS by mitigating Tory cuts to bursaries!

nurses.png

Can't go on forever though this mitigating Tory incompetence + nastiness, not while they're slashing Scotland's budget time and again.

When brexit hits fully, austerity supermax will follow.

Edited by scottish skier
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