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Scottish Politics 2011-2017


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53 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Surely when push comes to shove those Indy supporters who voted to leave the EU will back independence ?  

 

One would think so. Maybe an Indy Ref 2 ballot paper should have multiple choice questions! :whistling:

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And that ignorant, offensive, rant sums up exactly why the YES campaign failed  

Good god. What a load of boarish spiteful bile from bad losers has been posted during the night. I actually dread to think how Scotland would be run if this is representative of how the yes vote behav

I'm disappointed in the lack of grace shown by some across the net in accepting this No vote. A complete lack of any empathy and understanding as to why fellow Scots didn't vote Yes.   I personally

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34 minutes ago, kar999 said:

One would think so. Maybe an Indy Ref 2 ballot paper should have multiple choice questions! :whistling:

Alex Salmond wanted that in the first referendum, YES? NO? More powers? 

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9 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Alex Salmond wanted that in the first referendum, YES? NO? More powers? 

And we should have had the same in the Brexit malarkey, IMO: hard Brexit, soft Brexit, Remain; it seems that the populist right has a penchant for reducing necessarily complex arguments to simple, binary choices?

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And we should have had the same in the Brexit malarkey, IMO: hard Brexit, soft Brexit, Remain; it seems that the populist right has a penchant for reducing necessarily complex arguments to simple, binary choices?

I wouldn't be opposed to a snap GE and different parties campaigning for how they want to play it. Tories can outline their vision/plan, Labour (sorry, i know) and Lib Dems (erm, yes, sorry, I know). SNP can add to their manifesto a referendum desire to take Scotland out of the UK.

All good! :-D

I do dislike referendums, though. I wonder if Cameron is now kicking himself? If he knew Corbyn was on his way in, he likely wouldn't have issued a manifesto pledge for it...

 

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1 hour ago, kar999 said:

One would think so. Maybe an Indy Ref 2 ballot paper should have multiple choice questions! :whistling:

If it's First Past the Post as the Tories were elected / UK standard, then I'm in.

Indy would win comfortably; it being the most popular constitutional choice these days. :D

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Which, incidentally, is why May should take care about triggering a GE; if it gave her a mandate, it would give the SNP an even bigger one based on polls right now. :whistling:

 

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So, the Scottish Parliament will vote for Inde Ref 2 at about half five today. What will follow next?

The PM cannot back down on her commitment to not allow a referendum before the UK leaves the EU, so what will be the FM's next move? Three options from what I can see:

1. Hold a referendum without a Section 30 order, the Unionist parties therefore might not take part, there by rendering it pointless

2. Bring Holyrood down and have fresh elections on whether a referendum should be held or not. Even if independence supporting parties win a majority, May might still not allow a Section 30 order

3. Bring Holyrood down and have fresh elections on actual independence. Even if independence supporting parties win and vote for independence, Westminster can over rule

4. Wait until after the UK has left the EU then hold the vote

Thoughts?

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Ahead of today's vote where the people of Scotland - through their elected representatives - express their will on whether there should be a new iref.

Worth keeping in mind the Tory view on such things:

referendum.jpg

 

Of course the Greens could even abstain if they like. SNP (63) still outnumber Tories + Lab + Libs combined (60).

 

Edited by scottish skier
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7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

1. Hold a referendum without a Section 30 order, the Unionist parties therefore might not take part, there by rendering it pointless

No, if you don't vote, it says you are happy with whatever the outcome.

There was no turnout limits on the advisory EU referendum; none would be place on this one by the Scottish government.

It's only if the referendum was illegal under Scottish law could it be argued it was not representing the will of the people. For that to apply, you'd need to convince the Court of Session it wasn't free and fair.

We're not in Spain here.

Edited by scottish skier
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19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, the Scottish Parliament will vote for Inde Ref 2 at about half five today. What will follow next?

The PM cannot back down on her commitment to not allow a referendum before the UK leaves the EU, so what will be the FM's next move? Three options from what I can see:

1. Hold a referendum without a Section 30 order, the Unionist parties therefore might not take part, there by rendering it pointless

2. Bring Holyrood down and have fresh elections on whether a referendum should be held or not. Even if independence supporting parties win a majority, May might still not allow a Section 30 order

3. Bring Holyrood down and have fresh elections on actual independence. Even if independence supporting parties win and vote for independence, Westminster can over rule

4. Wait until after the UK has left the EU then hold the vote

Thoughts?

I'm just asking a genuine question here because I haven't a clue but isn't it possible that the Scottish Court of Session could/should decide on the legality/question of refusal?:cc_confused:  Isn't that another option?

Edited by Blitzen
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11 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

No, if you don't vote, it says you are happy with whatever the outcome.

There was no turnout limits on the advisory EU referendum; none would be place on this one by the Scottish government.

It's only if the referendum was illegal under Scottish law could it be argued it was not representing the will of the people. For that to apply, you'd need to convince the Court of Session it wasn't free and fair.

We're not in Spain here.

Excellent - glad you pointed this out - so on the EU ref we had a 72% turnout so that's 28% non voters  happy whatever the result so....

 51%  + 28%  = 79% 'Happy' about Brexit =  You'll have to agree a massive mandate for Brexit

No more whining about that result then from now on

Edited by cobbett
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4 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Excellent - glad you pointed this out - so on the EU ref we had a 72% turnout so that's 28% non voters  happy whatever the result so....

 51%  + 28%  = 79% 'Happy' about Brexit =  You'll have to agree a massive mandate for Brexit

No more whining about that result then from now on

Good to see that alt-maths are starting to take hold!:good:

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6 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

I'm just asking a genuine question here because I haven't a clue but isn't it possible that the Scottish Court of Session could/should decide on the legality/question of refusal?:cc_confused:  Isn't that another option?

There's no need.

Court of Session can't order England to recognise the result; that's what the Section 30 'legal' thing is about and nothing more. However, England recognising the result isn't very important; its what everyone else thinks that matters.

So if free and far and legal under Scots law, job done.

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11 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Excellent - glad you pointed this out - so on the EU ref we had a 72% turnout so that's 28% non voters  happy whatever the result so....

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 51%  + 28%  = 79% 'Happy' about Brexit =  You'll have to agree a massive mandate for Brexit

No more whining about that result then from now on

In England Yes; the result is valid irrespective of turnout.

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No, you can't allocate non-voters to either side. They neither voted for nor against. All you can do is split them the same way as voters if you must allocate them, but that changes nothing.

Here the result was Remain. I like this result. I'm not moaning about it.

If your logic applied, the Remain vote here would be overwhelmingly massive; end the UK tomorrow type result.

Edited by scottish skier
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11 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

I'm just asking a genuine question here because I haven't a clue but isn't it possible that the Scottish Court of Session could/should decide on the legality/question of refusal?:cc_confused:  Isn't that another option?

I wouldn't have thought there would be any point in making it a legal argument unless Westminster was to outright refuse a referendum. If Westminster says you can have one on this date, the courts would likely take a dim view of the case. I imagine it would be like any other civil case, no? There would be no point bringing one over a mere timing when they have already agreed to give you what you demanded.

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Had I been resident in Scotland at the time of the last iref, I'd have opted for DevoMax, had Dodgy Dave allowed it...His dastardly dichotomy worked north of the border; down here, however, it failed miserably...

Which begs the obvious question: How can a UK Prime Minister be that much of a plank!:shok:

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18 minutes ago, cobbett said:

 

51%  + 28%  = 79% 'Happy' about Brexit =  You'll have to agree a massive mandate for Brexit

Oh, and 37+28 = 65 if you wanted to add non-voters to leave Uk-wide.

If 65% Leave is massive, then 62% (Scotland) Remain must be 'enormous / humongous' or similar; and that's without the benefit of adding in non-voters here.

Edited by scottish skier
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10 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

In England Yes.

Her the result was Remain.

Ok fair point but I'll accept you confirming  England had a massive majority then - that's something I suppose

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19 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

In England Yes.

Her the result was Remain.

Ah but by @cobbett arithmetic, since turnout in Scotland was 67%, then 33% (didn't vote) + 25% (38% of 67% voted Leave) = 58% in Scotland were happy with Brexit.

:nonono:

P.S. Cobbett's arithmetic was wrong as it's not simply "51%  + 28%  = 79%" UK wide, it should have been (51% * 72%) + 28% = 64%. So not quite as "massive" a mandate even in the unlikely event that you consider this logic valid.

P.P.S. Cobbett for Chancellor

Edited by Ravelin
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1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

Ah but by @cobbett arithmetic, since turnout in Scotland was 67%, then 33% (didn't vote) + 25% (38% of 67% voted Leave) = 58% in Scotland were happy with Brexit.

:nonono:

P.S. Cobbett's arithmetic was wrong as it's not simply "51%  + 28%  = 79%" UK wide, it should have been (51% * 72%) + 28% = 64%. So not quite as "massive" a mandate even in the unlikely event that you consider this logic valid.

Quite right !!   I'd consider 64% a pretty clear mandate though

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1 minute ago, cobbett said:

Quite right !!   I'd consider 64% a pretty clear mandate though

**cough**

12 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

If 65% Leave is massive, then 62% (Scotland) Remain must be 'enormous / humongous' or similar; and that's without the benefit of adding in non-voters here.

 

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8 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

**cough**

 

 

21 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

Oh, and 37+28 = 65 if you wanted to add non-voters to leave Uk-wide.

If 65% Leave is massive, then 62% (Scotland) Remain must be 'enormous / humongous' or similar; and that's without the benefit of adding in non-voters here.

Yep agree but never disagreed

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I think this Section 30 is a waste of space. If England wanted to dissolve the Union would it need the permission of the Scottish Parliament to have a referendum?

All that matters is the vote is fair and democratic, the question set by an independent body which happened last time. Surely its down to the electoral commission to decide whats fair and democratic.

The fact that Scotland has to ask permission to have a vote you would think sums up in a nutshell whats wrong with the Union. Passed its sell by date and not fit for the 21st Century.

Regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent the whole structure of the UK needs an overhaul and the voting system needs to change.

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57 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

I'm just asking a genuine question here because I haven't a clue but isn't it possible that the Scottish Court of Session could/should decide on the legality/question of refusal?:cc_confused:  Isn't that another option?

The Court of Session, whilst it would confer the legality or not, the real defining moment for Scottish Indy, sans Westminster approval, would be the UN.

Once other countries start to recognise an Indy Scotland it's game, set and match with a checkmate thrown in for good measure.

However, I personally would much prefer a full IndyRef with with all parties taking part producing an Indy majority. That way there is no argument and no way for Westminster to be legally obstructive.

Should YES loose then we are probabably looking at least 10 years before even thinking about a new IRef. In that timeframe immense damage would be inflicted on Scotland and our young and brightest would leave for a better future elsewhere as they had to previously.

I genuinely fear for the future of our Country and Nation.

Edited by frogesque
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