Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Stormyking]

Can someone send me a link that shows lightning archives, just want to look at storms in the past that has occured

Would be much appreciated

[TheToastPeople]

Can someone send me a link that shows lightning archives, just want to look at storms in the past that has occured

Would be much appreciated

This one is rather good http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

[Stormyking]

This one is rather good http://www.metoffice...te/uk/anomacts/

Ahaa cheers for that , is there like any daily ones that show on actually dates if you get what I mean?

[Neilsouth]

This one is rather good http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

wow you can clearly see how cold east kent has been!, that's if i'm reading that right haha

[TheToastPeople]

Ahaa cheers for that , is there like any daily ones that show on actually dates if you get what I mean?

Hhmm sorry dont know of any, Netweather has an archive of past radar images which is good for looking at past storms but it doesnt include lightning

[Stormyking]

Hhmm sorry dont know of any, Netweather has an archive of past radar images which is good for looking at past storms but it doesnt include lightning

Ahh ok no worries, thankyou anyway

There is so mid level Cumulus here and AcCas clouds, it has gone a bit humid too hmmmm I wonder if anything could pop up this evening

[richep]

Looks to be some rain pushing over from the continent at the moment, according to the met office radar. Heading towards East Anglia.

[Lauren]

It looks like storms could be running right a long the South east and South coast tomorrow, also this evening GFS shows some precip over us around 6pm with a bit of cape so maybe something could pop up this evening

God I hope so.

Spoke to my Uncle yesterday who lives in Greece. Apparently they've been having intense thunderstorms recently.

[knocker]

This chestnut comes up quite a lot regarding desire for notable/extreme weather events. I think we should certainly be aware of the damage that they can cause, and it can sometimes be a case of "careful what you wish for" (especially regarding hoping for the world's biggest supercell to hit one's area), but I don't agree with the suggestion that people should tone down their enthusiasm out of respect for this.

For example, one can argue that it's wrong to hope for the "best" 1976-style summer because of the excess deaths that can arise from water shortages and dehydration (e.g. the August 2003 heatwave killed far more people across Europe than the severest European thunderstorms do) or that it's wrong to hope for the "best" mild winter because it might put the Scottish ski resorts out of business and many mild winters contain notable wet windy spells which cause structural damage and flooding. In my view the only reason why those don't get flagged up is that it's considered "normal" to want a hot dry summer or a mild winter and that exempts enthusiasm for such types of weather from such criticism, whereas hoping for thunderstorms is considered "different" and thus doesn't get exempted.

Wellll, enthusiasm for tornadoes?

http://forum.netweat...61#entry2069261

Edited April 28, 2011 by weather ship

[Gordon]

God I hope so.

Spoke to my Uncle yesterday who lives in Greece. Apparently they've been having intense thunderstorms recently.

Oh a case of Greece Lightning then

[Neilsouth]

Speaking of storms from the north sea, does anyone remember that April when we had a slack low pressure in the north sea that gave storms to north and east kent?. That was a fun time, wasn't exactly warm either!

[ZONE 51]

i have been following these storms, i looked at charts last night and new something was coming earlier than friday afternoon! was much to tired to post anything.

anyway its exciting following these storms heading towards our shores, all i want is a nice display of cloud to cloud ribbon lightning with frequent activity, those type of storms are beautiful to watch.

Edited April 28, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[dave48]

Looking forward to tomorrows potential, in a good spot here in Westbury. Models continue to hold up.

Each set up brings its own challenges and I think showers will devlop much more readily than last week but it is dependent this time on lots of cloud not blocking out the sun. Hopefully some sunny spells will get the temps up enough tomorrow.

As I have mentioned in a few of my recent posts, some shear this time, so any storms may be longer lived.

Edited April 28, 2011 by dave48

[Evening thunder]

Ahaa cheers for that , is there like any daily ones that show on actually dates if you get what I mean?

There is this one http://www.wetterzen...loc20050624.gif That shows a particular date but you can jump to any by changing the years and the date in the URL. I don't know how to get to a selection page as I just bookmarked this link from a forum post a while ago if that makes sense.

Wellll, enthusiasm for tornadoes?

http://forum.netweat...61#entry2069261

I don't think it would be good to wish for anything like that (I certainly wouldn't!) But I think its ok to hope for a decent lightning display and fall of rain (without any deaths/injuries of course) as I am hoping for something tomorrow or at the weekend myself. Even storm chasers I find generally may wish for a tornado in open fields not doing any damage, I've seen on videos them wishing a tornado to break up before it hits a town and things like that, or hoping the storms miss towns.

But It's a shame when they are so destructive like that.

I am hopefull of something here over tomorrow or the weekend, sometimes this can be quite a good direction/set up for me (can remember thunder with an easterly flow a few times) as if it was from the south for instance as the sea is to the south it only works if there are imports here which can give a pretty good show when they do happen though.

just another random note I'll ramble on about.. It annoys me a bit when I see in a paper like today a hailstorm at the weekend described as 'a mini blizzard', 'the freak storm' and 'a blanket of hail and snow' No.. it was just hail, not snow, and it was caused by thunderstorms, which are not unusual in a warm air mass.. lol.

Edited April 28, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Andy Bown]

Wiltshire??? i can only hope.. missed out last weekend... only by like 20 miles damn warminster lol

Why 'damn Warminster'? Nowt here last Saturday except a few sharp evening showers. I heard thunder in the afternoon

when in Westbury with a storm that was between there and Bath.

[Coast]

Although I'm not writing off tonight, the signs are not encouraging:

Still maybe tomorrow.....

[tomp456]

On this occasion, I don't think it will make too much difference.

Imports COULD be 'better' if they manage to cluster to form an MCS. Otherwise, I think there'll relatively little difference.

okays, thanks!

xD

[Cableguy]

i have been following these storms, i looked at charts last night and new something was coming earlier than friday afternoon! was much to tired to post anything.

anyway its exciting following these storms heading towards our shores, all i want is a nice display of cloud to cloud ribbon lightning with frequent activity, those type of storms are beautiful to watch.

looks like some moderate showers at best, its weakening already and cant see anything thats going to pep it up when it reaches our shores(not overnight tonight anyway).

[NL]

Latest from ESTOFEX.

... E-UK, Benelux, parts of France and W-Germany...

Gradient flow increases during the daytime hours as high pressure to the north strengthens. Modest BL moisture content beneath T<-20°C at 500 hPa results in modest mid-level lapse rates and SB/MLCAPE of ~800/500 J/kg. Numerous, weak vorticity maxima, embedded in this strenghtening easterly flow affect the highlighted area during a prolonged period, resulting in scattered thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Main uncertainty... if wind field ramps up fast enough, before instability diminishes due to BL stabilisation. Also, weak low-tropospheric WAA is anticipated during the forecast, which could limit thunderstorm coverage mainly over the Netherlands and NW-Germany. We went with a level 1, where low-end to modest CAPE overlap with up to 12 m/s speed shear and roughly 200 m^2/s^2 SRH-1. LCLs not too low with 1 km, but still an isolated tornado and strong to severe wind gust event is well possible, probably maximized over Belgium. A somewhat enhanced large hail risk exists not only in the aforementioned areas, but also further south over N-central France with low WBZ levels and DLS of 10 - 15 m/s. Hence, the level area was expanded well to the south.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Wellll, enthusiasm for tornadoes?

http://forum.netweat...61#entry2069261

I wondered afterwards if Surrey's post maybe related to that destructive tornado that hit Alabama, but I doubt that many of us would seriously want that to happen (and for those of us who do, "careful what you wish for" applies!). I often think that our neighbours in continental Europe are quite lucky (in a storm lovers' sense) to experience dramatic thunderstorms but without much of the high risk to lives and properties that accompanies those in the US plains, and the one that recently hit Alabama.

I must admit to having a desire to see funnel clouds when I watch convective events, as many storm chasers/spotters do, but I am more than happy to settle for seeing ones that never make it to the ground. It seems to be a general truism of events associated with thrills that there comes a point beyond which the threat becomes too large for the thrill to be worth it.

Re. Surrey's subsequent post, I can see that your typical European thunderstorm also poses a small threat to lives and properties, and a threat of turning into something bigger, but again the same sort of thing can be argued for hot dry sunny spells, e.g. a short-lived hot dry sunny spell puts some of the fragile at risk from heat exhaustion/dehydration and there's always the risk of it turning into another August 2003- and I don't see many people feeling guilty when they talk about the "best" hot sunny spell.

[Kookylou]

there seem to be some lightning strikes north of birmingham???

[Sprites]

Could be that East Anglia and the S.E get residual rain tonight, and then regions west of East anglia get home grown storms tomorrow,also areas west of London seeing storms tmorrow P.M.

Unless the low level air beneath the storms is modified,the misty low cloud will shroud any lightning tonight...

Edited April 28, 2011 by Sprites

[Jane Louise]

Latest from ESTOFEX.

... E-UK, Benelux, parts of France and W-Germany...

Gradient flow increases during the daytime hours as high pressure to the north strengthens. Modest BL moisture content beneath T<-20°C at 500 hPa results in modest mid-level lapse rates and SB/MLCAPE of ~800/500 J/kg. Numerous, weak vorticity maxima, embedded in this strenghtening easterly flow affect the highlighted area during a prolonged period, resulting in scattered thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Main uncertainty... if wind field ramps up fast enough, before instability diminishes due to BL stabilisation. Also, weak low-tropospheric WAA is anticipated during the forecast, which could limit thunderstorm coverage mainly over the Netherlands and NW-Germany. We went with a level 1, where low-end to modest CAPE overlap with up to 12 m/s speed shear and roughly 200 m^2/s^2 SRH-1. LCLs not too low with 1 km, but still an isolated tornado and strong to severe wind gust event is well possible, probably maximized over Belgium. A somewhat enhanced large hail risk exists not only in the aforementioned areas, but also further south over N-central France with low WBZ levels and DLS of 10 - 15 m/s. Hence, the level area was expanded well to the south.

Wow, thanks for posting this early. :good:I wouldn't of checked it until 10pm .It make's tomorrow even more exciting to look forward too lol :drunk::winky:

[Costa Del Fal]

Liking the Estofex forecast. Within the moderate lightning risk and Level 1.

Think the best spot will be in an area around Oxford towards Wiltshire then to around Worcester. Anywhere south of about Stafford or perhaps Stoke seems a good bet though.

[Stuart]

I got my fingers cross here for next thu for my 1st storms still long way off