Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[john pike]

http://www.severe-weather.co.uk/

could the south east see something on thursday??

storms in france seem to heading towards us

as of 1.30am

[knocker]

The short answer to that is no. The 00z GFS is still following the line of considerable convective activity latish Friday afternoon and evening.

[Lynxus]

The short answer to that is no. The 00z GFS is still following the line of considerable convective activity latish Friday afternoon and evening.

Aww man..

The girlfriend wants to hold a BBQ friday, So it seems that the ONLY day I dont want storms may actually be quite stormy.

Im gonna just assume they will miss me anyway as they have done for the last 3 years

[Supacell]

Met office invent charts seem keen on some thunderstorms rumbling across the north of Norfolk and into Central parts during the early hours, and so certainly something to watch overnight.

Tomorrow then looks to have some intense downpours around the southern Midlands. If they can be as far north as say Coventry then I may decide to go and chase. But petrol costs and lack of money would prevent me from getting much further than that. I will keep an eye on the precip charts during today to check the latest details.

An interesting 48 hours coming up I feel with a rare plume from the east.

[Coast]

If you take the ESTOFEX map literally and to the exact line, then it shows something of a Kent Clipper for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 28 Apr 2011 06:00 to Fri 29 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 27 Apr 2011 22:34

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for northern Morocco and northern Algeria mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A weak mid-level flow affects Europe on Thursday. Relatively low mid-level geopotential over France will slowly dig westward. With cool mid-level air masses, diurnal heating can easily result in steep low-level lapse rates that overlap with some boundary-layer moisture especially over Central Europe, Italy, and portions of Spain. This will create CAPE in the order of some hundred J/kg in regions with sufficient insolation. Widespread initiation is expected given the weak convective inhibition and strong low-level heating.

DISCUSSION

Tatra Mountains to the Benelux countries

In the wake of the westward moving cut-off low, warm air advection is forecast from the Ukraine to the Benelux countries. Models indicate that the boundary-layer will be affected by moisture flux convergence from southern Poland across northern central Germany to the Benelux countries from the noon to the evening hours, when daytime heating will result in quite steep low-level lapse rates. CAPE can increase to values of 1000 J/kg locally as indicated by latest GFS model output.

Low-level convergence in the warm air advection regime will locally be enhanced by orographic features. This is expected to result in initiation, and numerous thunderstorms are expected. Weak vertical wind shear will not assist for storm organization over most places, but stronger pulse storms are not ruled out that can produce isolated large hail. The slow propagation speed is forecast to pose a threat of local excessive rain as well.

Iberia, France, Alps, Italy, east Europe, Turkey

Thunderstorms that are expected to develop during the day are not expected to organize over most places given the weak instability and vertical shear profiles. Isolated large hail and excessive rain is not completely ruled out, though.

But does life ever work out that way?!

Interestingly, the 21st OWS map is almost identical:

and the UKMO extends that inland and up country:

Even some support from the Aviation chart for today:

Here's some more stuff for us to ponder over:

and later.....

I can foresee some tense radar and detector watching late afternoon in East Sussex and Kent, but don't get too disappointed if it turns to nothing!!

[Harry]

I would urge those in the SE corner not to look at the charts with too much disappointment

As ever, the CAPE/LI charts show Kesurex (my term for Kent/Surrey/Sussex lol) with little or no CAPE - an unpleasant gap between decent CAPE to the N and W, and to the S and E over the continent.

In my experience this is seldom accurate and quite often, the charts seem to over compensate for the narrow channel and Thames estuary.

This was a similar sort of chart for Saturday just gone, where convection readily developed by early afternoon across the Ashford area.

An exciting few days in prospect for many

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I hope I have a chance for something over the coming days :)

[Jane Louise]

Good luck Harry, surrey and all others in the SE :good:and everyone else of course Lol.

I may have a chance tomorrow.Just waiting on the GFS update. Will these storms be home grown or a plume type setup.

The Bay of Biscay storms are usually good for me as they travel up to the UK.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

thank you Hope soo too :) but I guess they will miss me as the case always is

[95 Degrees]

Good luck everyone, I may be a little too west currently for kent clippers but that is just basing it on charts in could all change of course

[Harry]

Good luck Harry, surrey and all others in the SE :good:and everyone else of course Lol.

I may have a chance tomorrow.Just waiting on the GFS update. Will these storms be home grown or a plume type setup.

The Bay of Biscay storms are usually good for me as they travel up to the UK.

Thanks JL

[Stuart]

still 0% here for storms over the weekend so i dont think it will Change now

Edited April 28, 2011 by Stuart

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We all love a really really good storms, frequent lightning and lots of thunder hail everything that a storm can throw at us. We all need some rain because we haven't had a lot. But the thing is storms can cost lives, they can also cause lots of damage. Then if this happens and god forbid one of us looses and family member or friend, or they get some serious damage the last thing you will ever want is another storm. I just don't think people should keep challenging each other over who is going to get the "best" storm and lightning.

[Neilsouth]

Not the most reliable for long term rain forecasts however it does give a good trend, was helpful in the winter months as well

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Run the radar loop, looks like it starts tonight with heavy showers or rain then some intense echoes move into EA

[Jane Louise]

We all love a really really good storms, frequent lightning and lots of thunder hail everything that a storm can throw at us. We all need some rain because we haven't had a lot. But the thing is storms can cost lives, they can also cause lots of damage. Then if this happens and god forbid one of us looses and family member or friend, or they get some serious damage the last thing you will ever want is another storm. I just don't think people should keep challenging each other over who is going to get the "best" storm and lightning.

Yes, very true Surrey,

I think in this case it's not who gets the best storm' but who will get a storm.'

Storms in my part and for others in the Uk can be a rarerity .( If that makes sense)

I do feel for the people who do encounter danger especially when there are severe storms forecast. But I feel some of our storms aren't as powerful as in the rest of the world. Please correct me if I'm wrong!

But, Yes! please everone as Surrey has mentioned, do keep safe and warn others if you happen to encounter a bad storm.

[tomp456]

which would produce the best storms over the weekend. homegrown or imports? or doesn't it make a difference

[Stormyking]

It looks like storms could be running right a long the South east and South coast tomorrow, also this evening GFS shows some precip over us around 6pm with a bit of cape so maybe something could pop up this evening

[Lynxus]

oxford tomorrow would be a great place to be i think.

Hopefully it will stay away until after my BBQ lol

[DeepSnow]

For those in wales this is what the meto have said today;

Friday:

A mostly dry morning, with bright spells and isolated showers. Becoming brighter during the afternoon, with sunny spells and scattered heavy and thundery showers. Feeling rather warm in the sunshine. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

What are our chances??

[Harry]

which would produce the best storms over the weekend. homegrown or imports? or doesn't it make a difference

On this occasion, I don't think it will make too much difference.

Imports COULD be 'better' if they manage to cluster to form an MCS. Otherwise, I think there'll relatively little difference.

[Jane Louise]

oxford tomorrow would be a great place to be i think.

Hopefully it will stay away until after my BBQ lol

Lol Lynux,

knowing your luck you will get your storm whilst having your BBQ lol and don't forget to wash the car and put your washing out too .

[Lynxus]

On this occasion, I don't think it will make too much difference.

Imports COULD be 'better' if they manage to cluster to form an MCS. Otherwise, I think there'll relatively little difference.

There is always talk of imports, However to my knowledge they have NEVER given anything good for anyone further away from teh East , SE , S coasts..

ALL the years ive watched storms, Tracked them etc.. Ive only come across big storms that are home grown.

Imports nearly always die out over land or fail to make landfall..

Great if you live on the coast. Useless further in IMO

[Thundery wintry showers]

We all love a really really good storms, frequent lightning and lots of thunder hail everything that a storm can throw at us. We all need some rain because we haven't had a lot. But the thing is storms can cost lives, they can also cause lots of damage. Then if this happens and god forbid one of us looses and family member or friend, or they get some serious damage the last thing you will ever want is another storm. I just don't think people should keep challenging each other over who is going to get the "best" storm and lightning.

This chestnut comes up quite a lot regarding desire for notable/extreme weather events. I think we should certainly be aware of the damage that they can cause, and it can sometimes be a case of "careful what you wish for" (especially regarding hoping for the world's biggest supercell to hit one's area), but I don't agree with the suggestion that people should tone down their enthusiasm out of respect for this.

For example, one can argue that it's wrong to hope for the "best" 1976-style summer because of the excess deaths that can arise from water shortages and dehydration (e.g. the August 2003 heatwave killed far more people across Europe than the severest European thunderstorms do) or that it's wrong to hope for the "best" mild winter because it might put the Scottish ski resorts out of business and many mild winters contain notable wet windy spells which cause structural damage and flooding. In my view the only reason why those don't get flagged up is that it's considered "normal" to want a hot dry summer or a mild winter and that exempts enthusiasm for such types of weather from such criticism, whereas hoping for thunderstorms is considered "different" and thus doesn't get exempted.

[Harry]

This chestnut comes up quite a lot regarding desire for notable/extreme weather events. I think we should certainly be aware of the damage that they can cause, and it can sometimes be a case of "careful what you wish for" (especially regarding hoping for the world's biggest supercell to hit one's area), but I don't agree with the suggestion that people should tone down their enthusiasm out of respect for this.

For example, one can argue that it's wrong to hope for the "best" 1976-style summer because of the excess deaths that can arise from water shortages and dehydration (e.g. the August 2003 heatwave killed far more people across Europe than the severest European thunderstorms do) or that it's wrong to hope for the "best" mild winter because it might put the Scottish ski resorts out of business and many mild winters contain notable wet windy spells which cause structural damage and flooding. In my view the only reason why those don't get flagged up is that it's considered "normal" to want a hot dry summer or a mild winter and that exempts enthusiasm for such types of weather from such criticism, whereas hoping for thunderstorms is considered "different" and thus doesn't get exempted.

I agree with TWS, hit the nail right on the head.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The threat is still there though