Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Stuart]

and for me is 0 % risk so i am away to

Edited April 26, 2011 by Stuart

[Nick F]

Doesn't look quite so convective on Friday on the 00z, with the storms staying on the near continent. But Saturday shows some good potential in the SE for a few storms. As ever it is bound to change!

[MP-R]

If anything there's a little more potential in Manchester than London going by those charts.

Not going to get excited though after the weekend's let down. The GFS doesn't want to play ball with storms spreading up from France so most of us would have to rely on homegrowns to see some action.

[Nick F]

06z GFS seems to have brought back instability on Friday (N Wales through Midlands to the SE) and a larger chunk of England and Wales on Saturday, as an upper low shifts west across southern UK. So I think a good chance of heavy showers and maybe t-storms both days over these areas, this backed up by latest MetO forecasts.

[Coast]

Well still a way out, but trending quite well:

[Jane Louise]

Sounds good to me Another weekend in the caravan again Yay lol... let's hope it all dosen't change for the worst though!

[Stormyking]

Strange we have a lot of Ac Cas over us at the moment but there looks like some mid level convection coming over here to our north I can see about 3 Anvils and looks dark under neath them :o

[Adi F]

Sounds good to me Another weekend in the caravan again Yay lol... let's hope it all dosen't change for the worst though!

Caravan down in the SW? I think there is potential for some activity Friday and Saturday right across southern England.

[tomp456]

Caravan down in the SW? I think there is potential for some activity Friday and Saturday right across southern England.

Indeed there may be potential. Is that a 1% potential?

The GFS is a ****....it'll change come the weekend...

however, for once, it may be right

(lets hope so anyway)

[Jane Louise]

Strange we have a lot of Ac Cas over us at the moment but there looks like some mid level convection coming over here to our north I can see about 3 Anvils and looks dark under neath them :o

Hi Sk Maybe a storm out of the blue lol

Caravan down in the SW? I think there is potential for some activity Friday and Saturday right across southern England.

Camping on a farm in Gloucestershire Adi, top of the SW. They could drift up lol :lol:

[Stormyking]

Hi Sk Maybe a storm out of the blue lol

Hi Jane

Tell you what it has that look to it that could produce a rumble or 2 if luck The sun has now gone behind the cloud now too

[Adi F]

Camping on a farm in Gloucestershire Adi, top of the SW. They could drift up lol :lol:

They could lol.

Tom it is one to watch but i have a feeling it will all come together. I am packing me hammock in the car just in case Friday potential takes me down SW I will stealth camp Friday night if not near home and be ready to move to to any storms on Saturday. Thats the plan at the moment but time will tell.

The meto are suggesting Friday and Saturday at the moment and I am sure they are throwing some extra resources at it because its an important day.

Anyway I am sure the weather gods will be having a party as Mr Sherman is leaving the country! That has to be a good omen lol

[Harry]

Regarding storm potential in the South East this coming weekend, I have to say that both MetO, ECM and MetOffice charts are mouth watering for Friday to Sunday, Saturday being the most mouth watering with the MetO plumping for heavy downpours/thunderstorms even through Saturday night.

Naturally, there's a gap of 3-5 days between now and then so much scope for change! But, by way of a warning, I'm chomping at the bit for a storm so much that I'm on the verge of being totally void of any rational thought and sensibility

[Jane Louise]

Hi Jane

Tell you what it has that look to it that could produce a rumble or 2 if luck The sun has now gone behind the cloud now too

Good luck SK Keep us updated. If nothing happens we always have the weekend.:lol:

[Stormyking]

Good luck SK Keep us updated. If nothing happens we always have the weekend.:lol:

Lol, I don't think anything will happen, the cloud is being killed off and sun is back out :lol:

[Stuart]

Good luck for the weekend down there

[Stormyking]

Good luck for the weekend down there

Cheers pal, things definatly looking interesting at the moment

Just as I thought just pure sunshine now and that thundery looking sky has gone got some AcCas about still though

Edited April 26, 2011 by Stormyking

[Jane Louise]

Good luck for the weekend down there

Thank you Stu, as you know my luck is the same as yours Lol :lol:. Hope something crops up for you too nearer the time.:winky:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Missed out on all the storms so far and like I said before we really need some rain, I hope we get some come the weekend :) but knowing my luck, i will see all the storms and not one will hit me , like when the south east had the first batch of snow..Snow all around me..2 miles down the road had settled snow..where I was not an inch!!

[Harry]

Can't help but notice that this weekend's potential across the SE is pretty much an alternative plume to the Spanish plume!

The mechanics appear pretty similar, save for the fact that our source of air is much further away.

Looking at the charts, we have a source of warm, humid air from the Med (Italian region as opposed to Iberian). Warmth/moisture advects, passing the Alpine/Carpathian mountain regions and interacting with cooler, drier air fed from Scandinavia. Moisture not lost through orographic rainfall across these mountain regions will retain at mid-level altitudes, creating an unstable atmosphere. A serious of troughs forecast to either move directly over the UK or nearby will destable the airmass, creating widespread convective weather in the form of torrential downpours or thunderstorms. These seems to correlate well with the CAPE charts being churned out by GFS.

I can't seem to remember this happening many times before and I am therefore very intrigued to see how it will pan out.

12z GFS starting to indicate the warmth being shunted further South, with a residual risk just hanging on across the far south of the UK. This has been reflected in MetO temperatures dropping from 21-23C down to 15-17C...night time temperatures notable however staying up at 11-12C, pretty much a par with our recent warm spell. This would indicate more moisture and higher dew points.

Much chop and change to be had in the coming days (frustrating as ever)

[Jane Louise]

Saturday has no storm risk for me anymore. Typical :lol:

So I guess, I will have to rely on Friday's 51% storm risk. Hoping there will be a bit of an upgrade yet before the weekend at least.

[tomp456]

MASSIVE downgrade in storm potential for Worthing. This morning it says 51PC, now just 11.

Its quite simple, mother nature for the most part, you suck!!

[dave48]

Looking forward to another promising weekend.

A note of the GFS, don't know if anyone else has a view but it picked out last weeks main risk days of friday and saturday about 5-6 days in advance. If it pulls off the same this weekend then that is not bad at all.

[Stormyking]

Don't worry yet guys there still few days to go , who knows it could turn out to be a Beast from the east for all we know (Thunderstorm wise)

[Nick F]

You know what? Friday atm looks vaguely reminiscent to the 9th May 2001 - which saw storms develop from the near continent - as my account in the Thunderstorm guide mentions:

The afternoon and evening of May 9th 2001 was overcast, grey and cool in SE England with stratus lapping off the North Sea in a cool ENE airstream. However, to the South over France a warm and moist plume was steadily being advected Northwards. As the front of the warm air collided along a convergence line with the cool air that had been feeding in from the NE at the surface over the Dover Straits and SW North Sea, the warm moist air was forced to rise and rapidly built into towering cumulonimbus cells around Calais in the late evening. Further cells then rapidly multiplied NW across SE England around midnight with warm air continuing to be forced aloft by cooler air flowing in from the N Sea at the surface. These cells produce spectacular lightning displays and merged to form an MCS which practically engulfed the SE corner. As the storms cleared NW, instead of the air becoming fresher, the air turned more humid, and the following day saw a sticky 25C reached compared to the cool day previous. The funny thing was, the Met Office forecasters were rather caught out and left with red faces as they had predicted a small chance of some thundery showers for the South that evening. They didn't forsee a rapid explosion of severe thunderstorms and blamed it on cool air from the North Sea colliding with warm air off the continent.

Synoptic situation at 00z 10th May 2001:

Friday's fax chart for midday (t+72):

Probably won't pan out that way - despite the synoptic similarity, as any storms will be probably be home-grown on Friday