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EMids WeatherWatcher

Lunar perigee - 19th March 2011

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Apologies if this is being discussed in another thread or topic.

It will be interesting to see if this has any effect on earthquake activity or anything unusual.

Extreme Super (Full) Moon to Cause Chaos?

Mar 1, 2011; 7:54 AM ET

Coming up later this month (March 19 to be exact) the moon will make its closest approach to Earth (called lunar perigee) in 18 years. A new or full moon at 90% or greater of its closest perigee to Earth has been named a "SuperMoon" by astrologer Richard Nolle. This term has been recently picked up by astronomers. An extreme "SuperMoon" is when the moon is full or new as well as at its 100% greater mean perigee (closest) distance to earth. By this definition, last month's full moon, this month's and next month's will all be extreme "SuperMoons".

Please visit Richard's website by clicking here.

I have read several "new age" forecasts that go something like this: "Extreme SuperMoon this month (March 2011) will bring strong earthquakes and storms and/or unusual climate patterns." Google the term 'extreme SuperMoon March 2011' and see for yourself what comes up. The validity of these types of forecasts can be debated ad nauseum.

There were SuperMoons in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. These years had their share of extreme weather. Is the Super Moon and the extreme weather a coincidence? Some would say yes; some would say no. I'm not here to pick sides and say I'm a believer or non-believer in subjects like this, but as a scientist I know enough to ask questions and try to find answers.

We obviously know that there are scientific laws that say the moon affects the Earth (i.e. tides). There are also less proven theories that say the moon affects the Earth (i.e. abnormal behavior during a full moon). Can the Super (full) Moon contribute to extreme weather?

AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. That extreme super moon was a new moon. So be forewarned. Something BIG could happen on or around this date. (+/- 3 Days is my guess)"

So what can we expect this time? Earthquakes? Volcanic eruptions? I guess we can only wait and see.

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There were SuperMoons in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. These years had their share of extreme weather. Is the Super Moon and the extreme weather a coincidence?

Extreme weather occurs ever day of every week of every year. It's therefore difficult to attribute any such events to specific causes. Not that that stops people from trying!

There may well be something in the Moon/tectonic activity connection though. Although it would appear that the big Indonesian earthquake (Boxing Day tsunami) occurred over 2 weeks before the 2005 'extreme super full moon' so I don;t see how it can be connected.

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Other than arriving to coincide with the Spring Equinox and producing wide tidal ranges (High, high-tide and low, low-tide) I doubt if anything dramatic will happen. There is however a good forcast for the Severn Bore.

Had there been a weather system with realy low pressure developing and running down the North Sea producing a tidal surge on top of the high tide then there could be some problems with flooding along the East Coast and Thames Estuary but as it stands at the moment it's all pretty quiet with high pressure dominating.

Sorry, no cigar and no disaster! :whistling:

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There are a fair few trying to predict earthquakes and they have details on youtube.

This guy has something for March 18th.

He has been quite successful in the past with regards to strength but location I suppose is another matter..

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AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake.

The Indonesian earthquake occurred on the 26th of December 2004, so I don't see the connection. If the quake occurred on the date of the so-called supermoon then I think more people might take note but it happened some days before!!

The fact that astrology seems to be mixed up with this, then it loses a hell of a lot of credibility for me.

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Let's face it, Over the 5.4 billion years or so give or take a birthday that the Earth has been in existance it has had a lot more than a regular Lunar perigee to upset it. If the Earth were a solid land mass then there might be a case for tidal forces causing stress and heating but the Earth is now covered by tectonic plates that move and flex fairly readily. Yes, we do get earthquakes when plate boundaries judder and jar but their pattern is prety random.

Putting the astrological nonsense to one side there is no reliable correlation between moon phase and earthquakes, indeed the whole science of earthquake prediction is fraught with difficulties. For instance, it's well known that the San Andreas fault will produce a major quake sometime in the future but it could be tomorrow, on the 19th of March or it may take another 100years. No one has a definitive theory that can predict exactly when (or where) it will happen. Doomsters, charlatans and windup merchants will keep on giving dates for their own ends and by law of averages somebody, someday will be correct. Very easy to right when they predict almost daily that 'today is gonna be the big one!'

It's garbage!

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I thought the moon was heading further away from us,not heard of this supermoon before,it`ll be agood night for the werewolves.lol.

A bright moon that night if clear.

Sun can effect the earth for tremors.

Biggest earthquake I`ve felt was in spring 1990 around 5.3 on the richter scale could`nt been higher than that.

Shrewsbury felt the brunt.

Only 1 before that which was 1984 when the whole house shook.

Edit:

Check out tonights cresant moon by jupiter it`s well and truly on it`s back.

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Supermoon?.....Isn't that's what they call it when Superman exposes his buttocks in public?

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Biggest earthquake I`ve felt was in spring 1990 around 5.3 on the richter scale could`nt been higher than that.

Shrewsbury felt the brunt.

Only 1 before that which was 1984 when the whole house shook.

I remember both of those well, the '84 one felt like a train going past at first!

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Looks like theres already been 2 earthquakes and thats in our local paper.

6.2 northern region of chile minor damage.

6.6 waters off the solomon island south pacific.

Hawai volcano was on the news this morning too.

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Looks like theres already been 2 earthquakes and thats in our local paper.

6.2 northern region of chile minor damage.

6.6 waters off the solomon island south pacific.

Hawai volcano was on the news this morning too.

Sorry but in my opiniont here is no connection at all to earthquakes or volcanoes. If so what caused the recent Christchurch earthquake or what caused the devastating volcano in the Phillipines in recent months. If you watch the USGS earthquake site ( http://earthquake.us.../quakes_all.php ) which registers every quake in the world over 4.5 you will see that large quakes and volcanic eruptions occur with sometimes devastating frequency. Also this blog ( http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/ ) is a good one if you want to monitor the frequency of volcanoes I am convinced that the moon has absolutely no effect on earthquake occurance. Merely coincidental, fortunately!

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Why so many earthquakes recently,it has nothing to do with the moon not this.

Remember last years massive earthquake in chille just found out that has shifted earths axis by 3inches.

New zealand I thought didn`t get any diasters worst I`ve seen,a safe place to go and live I thought.

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Why so many earthquakes recently,it has nothing to do with the moon not this.

Remember last years massive earthquake in chille just found out that has shifted earths axis by 3inches.

New zealand I thought didn`t get any diasters worst I`ve seen,a safe place to go and live I thought.

There are always earthquakes; it's just some get more publicity than others, mainly on the grounds of how easy it is to get news teams in.

New Zealand is a prime candidate for tectonic activity - the relative north/south movement of the plates to its east and west was one of the major clues that led to the confirmation of plate tectonics. All those sites like Rotorua are added evidence. It is slap bang on the "ring of fire" after all. Christchurch, sadly, appears to have been built over an unknown fault overlain with lots of recent sedimentary soils, which just go flollop like a vegetarian jelly hit with a spoon, with horrifying results for anyone living there.

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I`ve found a couple of links which the first shows what I saw yesterday.

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar/03/local/la-me-lost-time4-2010mar04

Now this is probably in the wrong thread but natural diasters are climbing fast over the world.

This graph only goes to 2000 but wasn`t last year the deadliest year globally on record for natural disasters.

http://xmb.stuffucanuse.com/xmb/viewthread.php?tid=3273

Good grief just found this link.

http://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2010/12/31/2000-vs-2010/

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I`ve found a couple of links which the first shows what I saw yesterday.

http://articles.lati...time4-2010mar04

Now this is probably in the wrong thread but natural diasters are climbing fast over the world.

This graph only goes to 2000 but wasn`t last year the deadliest year globally on record for natural disasters.

http://xmb.stuffucan...ad.php?tid=3273

Good grief just found this link.

http://thesocietypag...1/2000-vs-2010/

Definitely more eartquakes since 1900, but with a vastly increased population in the last 100 years any natural disasters are naturaly going to cause greater loss of life and economic distress.

When I moved to Bognor in the late 1960's the population was reaching 30,000, now the population makes that seem like a village. Magnify that by the whole of the UK, then magnify that by world population, etc. Droughts, flood, quakes, volcanoes, hurricanes will caused larger disasters with a larger global population. Not really anything to be surprised at.

Now to go back to the topic under discussion this quote from today's Mail really sums up all you need to know about the so-called Supermoon:-

But Pete Wheeler of the International Centre for Radio Astronomy said to treat any warnings of an impending apocalypse with scepticism.

'There will be no earthquakes or volcanoes erupting, unless they are to happen anyway,' he told news.com.au.

'The Earth will experience just a lower than usual low tide and a higher than usual high tide around the time of the event, but nothing to get excited about.'

Australian astronomer David Reneke agrees, pointing out that conspiracy theorists will always be able to find a natural disaster to link to a certain time and blame it on a supermoon.

He told the website: 'If you try hard enough you can chronologically associate almost any natural disaster or event to anything in the night sky - comet, planet, sun.

'Remember in the past, planetary alignments were going to pull the sun apart. It didn't happen. Astrologers draw a very long bow most times.

'Normal king tides are about all I would expect out of this supermoon prediction.'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1364124/Will-Earths-climate-patterns-disrupted-moon-passes-closest-point-19-years-week.html#ixzz1G2o75lte

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Definitely more eartquakes since 1900, but with a vastly increased population in the last 100 years any natural disasters are naturaly going to cause greater loss of life and economic distress.

When I moved to Bognor in the late 1960's the population was reaching 30,000, now the population makes that seem like a village. Magnify that by the whole of the UK, then magnify that by world population, etc. Droughts, flood, quakes, volcanoes, hurricanes will caused larger disasters with a larger global population. Not really anything to be surprised at.

Australian astronomer David Reneke agrees, pointing out that conspiracy theorists will always be able to find a natural disaster to link to a certain time and blame it on a supermoon.

And a media that gets all hot under the collar (within minutes) when there is something, like an earthquake, that 100 years ago we would have heard about 3 months after the event.

As someone else said above, "It's garbage"

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The supermoon won`t do much nope.

But those graphs are shocking look at the endangered species.

The world won`t cope too many people the way it`s growing.

Earth is not as tough you think.

More technology isn`t helping either.

More unusual weather patterns,more movement of land masses.

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Looked this up and it said it will only change our tides nothing else. Either a very low or high tide.

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Looks like the media are onto it with the usual headlines! :rolleyes:

'Supermoon' may cause weather chaos for coastal Britain

TV weatherman John Kettley, however, told The Sun if any problems do occur they will be in coastal regions, as although the moon 'can't cause a geological event' it can have an effect on the tide. 'If that combines with certain weather conditions, then that could cause a few problems for coastal areas,' he added.

http://www.metro.co.uk/news/857600-supermoon-may-cause-weather-chaos-for-coastal-britain#ixzz1GBTWHEAQ

Pete Wheeler, of the International Centre for Radio Astronomy, told the website news.com.au: "There will be no earthquakes or volcanoes erupting, unless they are to happen anyway."The Earth will experience just a lower than usual low tide and a higher than usual high tide around the time of the event, but nothing to get excited about." David Reneke, an Australian astronomer, added: "If you try hard enough you can chronologically associate almost any natural disaster or event to anything in the night sky.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/nightsky/8369718/Moon-to-look-bigger-next-weekend-during-lunar-perigee.html

Could 'supermoon' next week disrupt Earth's weather?

Dr David Harland, space historian and author, said: 'It's possible that the moon may be a kilometre or two closer to Earth than normal at a perigee, but it's an utterly insignificant event. But the Internet is awash with conspiracy-minded amateur scientists warning that such a 'supermoon' could disrupt Earth's climate patterns and may even cause earthquakes and volcanic activity. Previous supermoons took place in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005 - all years that had extreme weather events, the conspiracy theorists say. The tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people in Indonesia happened two weeks before the January 2005 supermoon. And on Christmas Day 1974, Cyclone Tracy laid waste to Darwin, Australia.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1364124/Lunar-perigee-Supermoon-cause-weather-chaos-Earth-week.html#ixzz1GBUce0UH

Richard Nolle, a noted astrologer who runs the website astropro.com, has famously termed the upcoming full moon at lunar perigee (the closest approach during its orbit) an "extreme supermoon."When the moon goes super-extreme, Nolle says, chaos will ensue: Huge storms, earthquakes, volcanoes and other natural disasters can be expected to wreak havoc on Earth. (It should be noted that astrology is not a real science, but merely makes connections between astronomical and mystical events.) But do we really need to start stocking survival shelters in preparation for the supermoon? The question is not actually so crazy. In fact scientists have studied related scenarios for decades. Even under normal conditions, the moon is close enough to Earth to make its weighty presence felt: It causes the ebb and flow of the ocean tides.

At times of full and new moons, "you see a less than 1 percent increase in earthquake activity, and a slightly higher response in volcanoes."The effect of tides on seismic activity is greatest in subduction zones such as the Pacific Northwest, where one tectonic plate is sliding under another. William Wilcock, another seismologist at the University of Washington, explained: "When you have a low tide, there's less water, so the pressure on the seafloor is smaller. That pressure is clamping the fault together, so when it's not there, it makes it easier for the fault to slip."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41997880/ns/technology_and_science-space/

Lunar_perigee_apogee.png

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My only concern would be the tidal disruption of the polar pack. The coastal sections may experience a major 'fragmentation event' and ,depending on the size of the tidal bulge, this could extend across the whole basin?

The 'event' would run from around the 17th until the 20th so we may be seeing leads and open water (weather/wind dependent) from the 17th onwards. The mess of the pack behind bering seems to be a product of the recent new moon which I take also had a large tidal range?

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Putting the astrological nonsense to one side there is no reliable correlation between moon phase and earthquakes, indeed the whole science of earthquake prediction is fraught with difficulties. For instance, it's well known that the San Andreas fault will produce a major quake sometime in the future but it could be tomorrow, on the 19th of March or it may take another 100years. No one has a definitive theory that can predict exactly when (or where) it will happen. Doomsters, charlatans and windup merchants will keep on giving dates for their own ends and by law of averages somebody, someday will be correct. Very easy to right when they predict almost daily that 'today is gonna be the big one!'

It's garbage!

Could you post the last 200yrs of Earths major Quakes against moon phases so we can have a look. :rolleyes:

If you don't I assume your 'guessing' its garbage.

I heard some people think the World is round , looks very flat to me.

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Hmmmm, not sure about this one. But there is a lot of research out there and it seems that the Indians are leading that field of work:

http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf

http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf

(.pdf downloads)

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/12-28c-04.asp

This one blows my tiny brain a bit:

http://www.zunds-institut.de/earthquakes/lecture.htm

http://sciencelinks.jp/j-east/article/200214/000020021402A0449168.php

Tidal forces are magnified during and after an eclipse. The solar tide is approximately a third of the lunar tide. When the sun and moon are in alignment these tidal forces are combined. A paper published in Taiwan, by the Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, found a significant relationship to tidal forces and earthquakes in China and Taiwan. The paper considers the relationship between 21 major earthquakes (Ms ≥ 7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the 20th century and the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The result indicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly plays an important role in triggering earthquakes.

The conclusion is this method may be used to help forecast earthquakes by studying the lunar perigee. Syzygy, which is not given much credence in the scientific community, is motivated by the observation that, historically, there have been some great earthquakes whose timing coincides with tidal forces near their maximum. For maximum tidal force, three factors must coincide: first, when the moon (in its elliptical orbit) is closest to the earth; second, when it is within a day or two of a new moon (so that the tidal forces of the moon and sun are acting in concert); and third, when the earth (in its elliptical orbit) is at or near its closest distance to the sun. Shallow earthquakes near mid-ocean ridges, volcanic earthquakes, and episodic tremor and slip have also been observed to sometimes correlate with the diurnal tides, with enhanced activity correlating with times that faults are unclamped.

10yrsEclipseQuake.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Wikinaut/Moon-Earthquake-Theory

"The same force that raises the 'tides' in the ocean also raises tides in the [Earth's]crust," said Geoff Chester, an astronomer and public affairs officer with the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C. Chester said the tides in the Earth's crust are subtle, in the order of a few centimeters, as opposed to the several-meter ocean tides. "We live on the crust, so we don't really notice the deviation from what would be sort of the normal form of the geoid," he said. "So the effect is small but nonetheless there." (The geoid is an imaginary outline that coincides with the mean sea level in the ocean and its extension through the continents.)

In theory, this slight deformation of the Earth's crust could be sufficient to trigger an earthquake like the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. "Most earthquakes occur on preexisting tectonic lines, and the vast majority do occur as a result of geophysical processes, but there may be some correlation [between the moon] and earthquakes," Chester said. For example, he said that in general there is a higher incidence of earthquake activity in the Northern Hemisphere when the moon is north of the Equator and an increase in earthquake activity in the Southern Hemisphere when the moon is south of the Equator.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0523_050523_moonquake.html

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AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. That extreme super moon was a new moon. So be forewarned. Something BIG could happen on or around this date. (+/- 3 Days is my guess)"

I remember the huge storm that hit the western isles on 11th January 2005, very high tides around that time!

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Could you post the last 200yrs of Earths major Quakes against moon phases so we can have a look. :rolleyes:

If you don't I assume your 'guessing' its garbage.

I heard some people think the World is round , looks very flat to me.

At this time I have only had a quick look and my head is spinning from the woowoo siencebabble on the interent. Frankly I'm not that interested to look further into the matter, nor am I willing to conduct my own research. I prefer to have a life.

Regarding the world being flat, it is well known that the world is flat, balanced on the backs of four elephants which, in turn, stand on the back of a giant turtle, Great A'Tuin.

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