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European Convective Weather Discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Due to popular demand, here is a thread to follow European thunderstorms and convective weather. As with the UK threads, please stay on topic!

Below are a few links to places where you can monitor storms and see forecasts + webcams etc. Please PM me if you have some you use yourselves and I will add them to this link list.

Convective weather monitoring and forecasts:

http://www.estofex.org/

http://www.essl.org/ESWD/

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/index.cfm?section=dspLoopℑ=21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_??

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

http://aviationweather.gov/products/swm/

http://onweer.optv.nu/anim.php?O=EU

http://www.skystef.be/sounding.htm

http://62.202.7.134/hpbo/sounding_europe.aspx

http://dariuszwielgat.com/Weather_Center_Europe.htm

http://www.skystef.be/forecast9ani.html

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page=1&subpage_0=3&subpage_type_0=2&subpage_3=2

http://www.strikestareu.com/sslt/sslt.html

http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_Lightning_in_EurAfrica_BIG.gif

http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

http://www.lightningring.com/map.html

http://www.astrogenic.com/nexon/nexon_big.html

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/lightning/en/euro/DL.htm

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/lightning/en/euro/NL.htm

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/lightning/en/euro/PL.htm

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/lightning/en/euro/SW.htm

http://cirrus.meteo.noa.gr/forecast/lightning.gif

http://www.jahla.dk/MelfarVejr/Online/StormVue.html

http://www.telefonica.net/web2/omaa/rayos/rayos.htm

http://meteopeypin.free.fr/Boltek/boltek.html

http://meteo.it9obk.org/meteo/fulmina.html

http://www.kifissiameteo.gr/

http://www.meteo.pt/en/otempo/trovoada/

http://www.multi.fi/~ksillanp/salamatutka/

http://wwlln.net/one_day_density_average.jpg

http://www.meteorologica.info/Eurodewpoint.htm

http://static2.orf.at/wetter/blitz/EU.gif?

http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/rayos

http://www.maltaweather.net/lightning.jpg

http://www.wetteronline.de/eurobli.htm

Radar/Satellite:

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=holiday&jaar=-3&soort=loop24uur&URL

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/meteosat_nrlmry_slp.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/temps-reel.php

http://www.kaikowetter.ch/radar.php

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/europesatellite_large.html?clip=undefined&region=undefined&collection=localwxforecast&presname=undefined

http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en

Webcams:

http://www.tbx.be/fr/04.02/1/app.rvb

http://www.paris-live.com/paris_webcam/eiffel_tower_cam3.htm

http://www.hotel-montana.fr/montana/e/webcammbt.php

http://www.caravaneige-camping-savoie.com/caravaneige-lanchettes-pesey/webcam-camping-peisey-nancroix.php

http://www.webcamsmania.com/webcam/saintmalowebcam

http://cam.mannheim-wetter.info/

http://www.camvista.com/watch-live-video/europe/netherlands_amsterdam_live_city_webcam_views.html

http://www.port-aberwrach.com/index.php?LiveCam

http://www.camvista.com/watch-live-video/europe/italy/venice_grand_canal_live_webcam.html

http://www.avendano.org/webcam.php

http://www.madbros.net/portales/index.php?config=webcam-english

http://www.romexplorer.com/rome-webcam.htm

http://nifada.com/webcam/panorama.htm

http://www.strawberryworld-lisbon.com/webcam.html

http://webbkameror.se/webbkameror/gondolen/webkamera_eriks_640_2.php

http://www.greatestates.ca/praguecam.html

http://www.marzahn-hellersdorf.org/webcam.php

http://www.cesvision.hu/referenciaink.html

http://www.luxairline.com/webcam.html

http://cph.dk/CPH/UK/MAIN/Virtual+Airport/Web+cameras/Web+camera+2.htm

http://www.zol.pl/webcam/

http://www.cyprusbill.com/livevideo.html

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

We are all going to have to fly a long way today to get thunderstorm activity:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 24 Feb 2011 06:00 to Fri 25 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 23 Feb 2011 19:51

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A broad and deep trough covers Europe at the western flank of a ridge over western Europe. At Thursday, this ridge will expand north-eastward into northern Europe. With the northerly low-level flow, cold and very dry air masses will spread into the Mediterranean. Higher boundary-layer moisture can be found near the center of the mid-level trough. Increasing low-level moisture is also expected over south-western Europe.

DISCUSSION

East Mediterranean/Turkey

Underneath the trough center neutral lapse rates and quite rich low-level moisture of 7 g/kg mixing ratio are forecast over the east Mediterranean and are expected to lead to some low-level CAPE that can be found in the latest soundings as well. Low-level convergence is expected to be most intense to the south of Greece and Turkey near the center of a surface low. With almost no convective inhibition, moist convection will likely form and is forecast to reach equilibrium level temperatures below -20°C, indicating a potential of thunderstorms. With weak vertical wind shear, severe thunderstorms are not likely, but waterspouts may occur near the coasts due to the steep lapse rates.

Daytime heating over Turkey is also forecast to be strong enough to produce deep moist convection. With weak vertical wind shear, the potential of severe weather is weak, but locally strong downdraft gusts and small hail may be possible.

Besides the main activity, some isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the southern Mediterranean as well. This activity is expected to weaken from the north as the dry air masses from the central Mediterranean spread southward.

West Mediterranean

With northerly low-level winds, a tongue of higher moisture that has remained over the west Mediterranean is advected towards the African coasts. Especially over eastern Algeria and Tunisia, this moist air will overlap with rather cool mid-level air masses, and weak CAPE is expected by latest numerical models. At mid-levels a strong northerly jet streak initially pointing towards eastern Tunisia will move southwards, and some lift is likely at its anticyclonically sheared entry. Further lift can be expected near the coasts due to upslope flow. Showers are forecast that can also be capable of producing isolated lighting. Gusty winds are likely given moderate northerly winds, but severe limits are not expected to be reached given the lack of instability and only weak forcing.

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Ironically, many of the countries currently bordering political turmoil or just coming out of it!

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

Great thread :)

Forgive me if I concentrate on weekend potential, but with various options of cheap travel I'd love to see some members banding together on a friday night for a weekend strobe - fest :drinks:

Long range but next weekend (5/6 March) showing some broad strokes of a strong jet and high 850's being pulled up into the eastern med...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn2042.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn19214.png

Cheers, Sam (Cirencester)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Here's a round up for some major cities for the next 7 days:

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Possibilities for Belgium into France at the weekend?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Ironically, many of the countries currently bordering political turmoil or just coming out of it!

Yep, confirmed by returning British people from Libya yesterday:

"The weather was cold, wet and miserable. There was hail and thunder." He added: "It was the worst weather Tripoli has seen in almost living memory, and we were stood in the rain for 13 hours.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8347184/Libya-returning-Britons-say-rescue-operation-shambolic.html
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

A similar area in the Mediterranean under scrutiny today:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 01 Mar 2011 06:00 to Wed 02 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 28 Feb 2011 23:16

Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for Ionian Sea, southern Italy and southern Mediterranean sea mainly for strong wind gusts, marginally large hail, tornadoes and excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

The dominant feature today is an extensive ridge expanding across west-central Europe towards Russia with a large potent upper-level low center over central Mediterranean sea and Tyrrhenian sea. Its SE-wards progression slows down and becomes rather stationary during the forecast period. Surface cyclogenesis takes place in the morning hours and wobbles over the Tyrrhenian sea. Its warm front advects across the Adriatic sea while strong cold front trails NE-wards across the southern Italy and Ionian sea. This front will be the main concern for severe convection/threat today.

Elsewhere, cool and stable conditions will persist throughout the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

... southern Italy, Ionian Sea / southern Mediterranean sea ...

A narrow moist sector characterized by near 10 g/kg mixing ratios will continue advecting NE-wards into Ionian sea ahead of the well-defined surface cold front. Rather strong southerly winds will maintain this airmass under steep lapse rates. As a result, marginal to moderate instability of several hundreds J/kg MLCAPE will result. In the mid levels, quite strong jet will overtake this moist/warm sector and support large scale ascent over the level 1 area. As a result, severe convection/storms become increasingly likely given the overlaping istability with 25m/s DLS and SREH in the lowest levels. Expect organized storms to continue from overnight activity, capable of producing strong winds with marginally large hail and intense rainfalls/flash floods as the primary threats. Favorable hodograph seem enough supportive for tornado threat as well, especially given the quite impressive SREH/shear in the lowest 1km. However, given the storms may become linearly organized along the strong surface convergence, a few supercells may also be embedded in this complex storm system trailing along the surface front.

In the wake of the front across Sicily and westwards towards Tunisian coast, environment should become supportive for a couple of waterspouts as well, given the steep LL lapse rates, weak wind profile and high low-level buoyancy. It seems that scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on going mostly during the daytime hours and should diminish soon after sunset as instability vanishes.

As a side note... A tightening pressure/temperature gradient between slowly deepening surface low over central Mediterranean and expanding high pressure area over east-central Europe, will create dangerous windy conditions mostly along the NE-ern Adriatic coast. Overnight to Wednesday, very strong to extreme Bora winds will evolve across SW Slovenia, northern Adriatic sea and Kvarner bay. Expect strong wind gusts exceeding 45 m/s and dangerous weather conditions.

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http://www.cailinguaglossa.it/webcam.php

http://www.albanetcom.com/etnaimg/

More than one reason for looking at the area around Libya again today......

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Is about all the interest I can grab from current model output. This current weather pattern is just painful... really.

http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Not just me then?! If we want to try and experience some Euro-storms, Southern Italy looks like it might be a place to go this year:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 02 Mar 2011 06:00 to Thu 03 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 02 Mar 2011 00:08

Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A complex synoptic scenario dominates Europe. At midlevels, mid-level ridge protruding zonally from Atlantic into Western Europe divides the zone of an extensive but shallow zone of low geopotentials centered over the Western Mediterranean and to the north of the ridge, in a strong zonal flow, series of short-wave troughs that should quickly move towards Northeastern Europe are simulated. The most prominent of the short-wave troughs with an embedded jet-stream at its forward flank will be associated with a deep low which will travel over Northern Scandinavia in the afternoon and evening hours. To the south of the deep low, strong pressure gradient should result in a very strong flow with windspeeds over 40 m/s at 850 hPa in the most intense belt. Coastal areas of Central Norway will likely experience hurricane-force wind gusts during the late afternoon hours. A large high pressure system will stretch from Great Britain, Northern Sea into the Baltic Sea and subsequently Central Russia. To the south of this system a stationary shallow low will slowly fill during the forecast period, centered approximately over Sardegna.

Rather cool, stable and dry airmass is forecast over most of Europe. The only regions that might experience isolated thunderstorm activity is the Tyrrhenian Sea, Ionian Sea and the southern part of the Adriatic Sea. Models seem to agree on the low-end instability built-up, comprising several hundred J/kg. This instability is likely the result of the cold mid-level temperatures overspreading the region in the proximity of a core of a mid and upper-level low. Along with mostly weak wind shear, poorly organised, non-severe deep moist convection is forecast. Severe threat should be very low in all of the areas that experience thunderstorms and no level is warranted at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Italy and the Western Med in general again today?

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 03 Mar 2011 06:00 to Fri 04 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 02 Mar 2011 17:40

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A deep polar trough is located across southern Europe leading to a strong south-westerly mid-level flow across the central Mediterranean Sea. At low levels, easterly winds advect moist air masses into the central Mediterranean ahead of a low pressure system over the Atlas mountains. Mostly stable air masses dominate most of Europe.

DISCUSSION

West Mediterranean to Adriatic Sea

A broad trough that is placed over the west Mediterranean is filled with cold polar air masses with mid-level temperatures below -28°C. Low-level heating over the Mediterranean Sea as well as over the larger islands is expected to lead to steep low-level lapse rates.

Given rather steep lapse rates close to the moist adiabate at mid-levels, a rather cold equilibrium level temperature is possible as indicated by latest soundings. Latest observations also indicate scattered thunderstorms.

On Thursday, convective activity is forecast to go on over the Mediterranean Sea. Given the rather weak low-level moisture and weak vertical wind shear, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. A few waterspouts are not ruled out especially near the coasts of the Adriatic Sea.

Over the larger islands and southern Italy, daytime heating is forecast to be strong enough for initiation, and additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the day. These storms are also expected to be unorganized, but locally small hail and strong wind gusts are expected before the storms decay in the evening hours.

Central Mediterranean

The center of low surface pressure is forecast to be located over northern Africa. This is associated with easterly surface winds over the southern/central Mediterranean and a frontal boundary at the eastern flank of the surface low is forecast to move westward again. This warm front will also be associated with low-level moisture advection into the central Mediterranean.

Warm air advection atop of the boundary-layer as well as weak synoptic forcing at the anticyclonically sheared exit of the mid-level jet stream will likely limit the chance of initiation. However, a rather well-defined surface front/convergence is indicated by latest models, and current thinking is that stratiform precipitation will likely develop.

Late in the period, the mid-level jet spreads eastward, leading to more forcing and steepening lapse rates. Elevated convection is forecast that will likely be imbedded in the stratiform precipitation area. Storms are not expected to root to the boundary-layer where they would profit from the moderately-sheared environment near the warm front and severe storms are not forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

the pain is unbearable....

Well the action continues in the Western Med today but also to the East and the Bay of Biscay with perhaps a potential little area off the Norwegian coast:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 04 Mar 2011 06:00 to Sat 05 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 03 Mar 2011 21:05

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for parts of Norway and W Sweden mainly for severe wind gusts and a possible tornado.

SYNOPSIS

One feature of interest on Friday is an upper cut-off low centered over Iberia. Relatively cold air overspreads large portions of SW and central Europe and therefore instability is rather marginal. GFS shows around 100 - 200 J/kg CAPE over the central and western Mediterranean and also over Iberia and S France in a weakly sheared environment.

Strong pressure gradients are observed over the northern parts of Scandinavia, caused by a broad upper high over western / central Europe and a 975 hPa low pressure system over the Barents Sea. Some instability is forecast to be created in the wake of the cold front which should have passed W Norway and Sweden around 06 UTC on Friday. Strong low level winds are present in the trough region, reaching 20 - 25 m/s at 850 hPa.

DISCUSSION

...Iberia, W Mediterranean, C Mediterranean...

Most of the convection will evolve in a weakly sheared environment except for storms which will develop near Sicily. Deep layer shear in order of 15 - 25 m/s in this region may allow a few organized multicells and / or short-lived supercells which are capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. As strong capping is predicted for this region, no threat level is issued.

...C Norway, NW Sweden...

Some narrow bands of strong linear forcing are predicted near the Norwegian coastline which could aid to initiate a narrow convective line. The strong LL winds may lead to non-convective gusts in order of 20 - 25 m/s in a broad area and may become convectively enhanced. Some gusts may reach more than 34 m/s. Even though the role of convection for straight-line wind damage is still uncertain in this case, a threat level 1 is warranted. SRH is locally enhanced and some embedded mesocyclones may spawn a tornado.

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent

Hi all,

Looking forward to the storm season, hopefully more than last year!

Not sure what thread to put this in.

Currently some lightning around what looks like a polar low? just of the cost of Norway.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Currently some lightning around what looks like a polar low? just of the cost of Norway.

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent

Hi coast,

Not a lot by the looks of that.

Was more intrigued by the hurricane look of the formation, I saw a low pressure on the charts around there for that time, was this just a low pressure? had a what looked like a well defined eye.

Amazing formation for that far north.

Thanks

Meso

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Low risk of something across the Channel today according to ESTOFEX:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 14 Mar 2011 06:00 to Tue 15 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 13 Mar 2011 22:16

Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A deep upper longwave trough is anchored off the W-European Atlantic coast, maintaining a deep, southerly flow over western and much of central Europe. While the overall pattern over these regions remains largely unchanged during the period, high pressure over Scandinavia will strengthen and begin pushing cold/polar air southwards.

... DISCUSSION ...

... France ... Iberia ...

Weak instability should persist/develop over Iberia/France, which may lead to scattered/weak thunderstorms as DCVA-related ascent overspreads the region. Shear and instability should both be minimal, suggesting minimal severe threat.

... western Mediterranean Sea ...

Farther east over the western Mediterranean, warm-advection/frontogenesis should lift weakly unstable air, which should result in scattered storms throughout the period, with a slight strengthening trend towards the evening/night hours.

There will likely be no consistent juxtaposition of favorable shear with instability, but at least temporarily some 20 m/s DLS and 10 m/s LLS should coincide with the convection. This combination hints at a potential for line segments and mesocyclones, capable of marginally severe winds/hail, as well as a brief tornado or two. However ... given the large-scale WAA/frontogenesis regime, the storms may tend to be elevated, so that the low-level vorticity cannot be tapped. Also, it seems that the strongest CAPE will remain displaced from the best shear. Overall, the severe threat thus seems to be somewhat patchy and conditional. Will thus not introduce a LVL1, though an isolated severe thunderstorm report or two cannot be discounted.

... south-central Europe into northern Italy ...

It seems that marginal and rather shallow instability may develop with the early March solar heating, leading to scattered showers, some of which may produce sporadic lightning. The severe threat with this activity should be minimal.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Here we go, something tantalisingly close just over the Channel according to ESTOFEX:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 28 Mar 2011 06:00 to Tue 29 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 27 Mar 2011 21:25

Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

Two upper frontal zones are evident in the upper-air analyses ... one curving cyclonically across the northern portions of Europe and another, weaker one extending across Iberia and the Medirerranean Sea. At low levels, a largely stationary baroclinic zone is running from the British Isles across central Europe into the Black-Sea region. South of this boundary, weakly unstable air is present which may support scattered thunderstorms on Monday.

... DISCUSSION ...

A southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the central Mediterranean on Monday, which should be a focus for convective development. There will be some 20 m/s DLS associated with this feature, but the instability should remain very weak. Best chances for briefly-organized convection should unfold over S Italy, the S Adriatic Sea, and the extreme N Ionian Sea. However, given the minimal thermodynamic support, the severe threat seems to be rather low. An isolated wind gust briefly approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out, but a categorical risk is not introduced at this time.

Elsewhere, shear and instability will be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat.

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http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/dt.html

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No need to get too excited though

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Quite alot of lightning activity over Italy at the moment.

Every strike is displayed as a colored dot. The color of the dot represents the age of the strike in the time intervals explained to the top/left side of the map. The top/right side of the map shows the local time, the number of stations who contribute, the number of strikes of the last hour, and the number of strikes of the last minute.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertford
  • Location: Hertford

Another one to add to the live webcams. http://www.aminta.co...ento_webcam.php

From Sorrento in Italy..seems a very thundery region seen some great night time lightning displays from it.

Stayed there for my Honeymoon, fantastic view for storms, only had one daytime one while we were there, turned the hill into a river in a ten minute downpour

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Posted
  • Location: Murcia - Spain (southeast)
  • Location: Murcia - Spain (southeast)

Hi. Photos of a supercell taken in Talavera de la reina - Toledo - Spain the last Saturday. More pics here.

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Another storm, this one near to Madrid the last friday. More pics here

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Bye.http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Absolutely fantastic pictures! I so wish I could've been there to chase them. Maybe we will have some of that in the UK this summer :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Great pictures and that definitely stirs me into thinking we should do some Eurochasing this year - what do you think folks?

Quite a lot of lightning activity over Italy at the moment.

More to come today with emphasis on Greece:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 31 Mar 2011 06:00 to Fri 01 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 30 Mar 2011 13:28

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A broad trough is present over Europe. To the west of this low geopotential, a short-wave trough ejects from an Atlantic long-wave trough and moves across the British Isles and Germany on Thursday. In the wake of this short-wave trough, a south-westerly flow will evolve over western Europe, building a broad ridge that expands eastward during the period. This situation is associated with warm air advection from the south-west over most of Europe except for the central Mediterranean and the Balkans, where cold air masses remain.

DISCUSSION

Central Mediterranean Sea, Italy, southern Balkans to Romania, Turkey

Within the cold air that covers most of the southern and eastern forecast region, daytime heating leads to steep low-level lapse rates especially in the noon and afternoon hours. Some low-level moisture is also present that allows for some CAPE as indicated by the latest soundings. The best low-level moisture and low-level forcing is forecast along sea breeze convergence lines, and showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the noon to the evening over islands as well as over the coastal regions of Italy, the Balkans, and Turkey.

Over the Mediterranean Sea, latest observations indicate that thunderstorms are not likely to develop given the rather cool sea surface. Some isolated thunderstorms are not ruled out, especially at night along offshore convergence zones.

For Greece and surroundings, some additional lift is expected at the western flank of a warm air advection regime to the south of Turkey. Thunderstorms may cluster in the evening and night hours and may go on until the morning with a local threat of intense precipitation. Severe limits are not expected to be reached.

Latest models also indicate the development of CAPE far away from the sea over Romania, the Balkans, and Turkey. Although low-level moisture will be limited, the strong diurnal heating will likely assist for some CAPE, and weak CIN as well as some forcing near the trough center is expected to assist for isolated thunderstorms that are forecast to decay in the evening hours.

Main threat of these thunderstorms will be local hail and gusty winds that may reach severe limits, but the absence of strong vertical wind shear limits the severe potential of these storms.

Western Poland, Czech Republic, Austria

A weakening short-wave trough will enter this region in the afternoon hours from the west. It will lead to some large-scale lift. At low levels, strong diurnal heating is forecast, and southerly to south-westerly winds will be associated with moisture advection during the day. Latest models indicate the development of weak CAPE that will likely be released given weak CIN and some forcing especially over hilly regions. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast at the afternoon that may pose a threat of local hail that can reach severe limits. The best potential is expected over Austria where the deep layer Bulk shear increases to about 25 m/s. The expected threat seems not to warrant a level 1, though.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Eat your heart out in the UK.

:doh: ESTOFEX on the money as well for that!

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 14 Apr 2011 06:00 to Fri 15 Apr 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 13 Apr 2011 21:00

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for western Turkey mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough is located over Europe. The center of the low geopotential has a dipole structure that rotates counterclockwise. The northern part will move slowly westward over Hungary, the southern part will move north-eastward from the Aegean to the Black Sea. West of the low geopotential, a ridge over the eastern Atlantic will expand into the North Sea region. Cool air will dominate most of Europe except for Turkey and the Black Sea ahead of an approaching cold front. The boundary-layer is mostly dry with slightly better moisture along a cold front over Turkey and parts of the Mediterranean Sea.

DISCUSSION

West Turkey

A cold front will enter Turkey in the morning hours and will spread eastward. Ahead of this cold front, an air mass originating from the Mediterranean Sea will be advected northward into the Black Sea. This air mass will be relatively moist

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

This one showing some current activity:

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Go on, you know you want it over here!

Also some activity here from an Austrian detector:

http://www.schelli.at/blitz/StormVue.html

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