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The Middle East...where Are Events Taking Us?


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Posted
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London
  • Location: Home - Bexley, London/Kent border. Work - Cannon Street, C London

    Britain is good at standing by and watching sick events unfold...just like most other nations.

    If things get too hairy for Gaddafi he could always take refuge with his mate Mugabe. He'll be fine there...after all nobody has bothered mad, bad Bob in all these years. A bit of a shame they never discovered oil in Zimbabwe!

    It is pretty sickening, but then again I often have very conflicting arguments in my head as to what should happen in such events as Mugabe, Gadaffi etc.

    History has shown that where societies want revolution, they get revolution. The society within a country defines how it is ultimately led. The Zimbabweans, Iranians, Egyptians, Libyans etc have all had their chance in history to make an impact, and they did not. They allowed the evolution of their governments and continued to let them get more powerful, more domineering and in the process, less humane and more brutal. Irrespective of what other governments assisted in getting, the people had the final say as to how they are to be governed.

    It is not the obligation of nations to try and better others politically - you do not have to engage too much of a debate to realise such a way forward would lead to global anarchy - every nation trying to impose a set of values and laws based on their own doctrine on to others. Surely this is just the same as tyranny, where the 'tyrant' is the most powerful 'nation' as opposed to a 'person'.

    IMO, Plato's Republic is an awesome book and perhaps the lead when it comes to society and social change and the political spectrum...I confess, I have only read sections as part of my philosophy course in school, but what I read was profound and IMO, accurate considering it was written a few thousand years ago! Plato identifies (rightly IMO) that after democracy there is only one path...tyranny and the rise of a tyrant.

    What we perceive in our society at present (what is publicised in the media for example) is lowering standards of respect and regard for authority, and an increasing 'nanny state' imposing laws on us which we do not want/like and which restricts our freedoms. What I see in this, is a creep towards a tyrannical government who are imposing standards on citizens which they have not voted for, nor anticipated when exercising democracy...

    When we make comments about the rights and wrongs of governments and their actions towards others, do not lose sight of both the merits and failings of each peoples' government. We have it embedded in our minds (through propaganda/indoctrination I fear, rather than using sound logic!!!) that democracy is perfect for all societies and establishes the maximum liberty and freedom to exercise what we want (within limits). Democracy is all well and good provided that it is exercised fairly and consistently, and truly reflects the will of the populous. What would the UK's view be if Nazis once again came to the fore and despised Jews, Gays etc...if the government was elected fairly, and the actions of that government reflected the majority of that nation, would be stop doing business with them? Would we try to shut them off through trade? They are democratic after all, we merely disagree with their values...if you take the argument that you would want them shut off, then you're real problem is not their political structure, but the viewpoint of the majority.

    It is all very easy to make wild comments about how sick the UK and US (and others) are in trading with tyrants/dictators, when their people are suffering. But before such accusations are made, it is imperative you know precisely why the UK/US is sick, why you want them to take certain actions, and whether or not your view on such a matter is indeed a just one.

    They say foreign policy is among the most difficult to manage...it is not difficult to understand why when you think about it in depth and attempt to apply reason.

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    There is no other description for what is happening other than war crime and genocide.   Israel is technically the occupying force on Gaza and as such is duty bound to protect civilians.   Complet

    The scenes in Gaza look like the aftermath of a nuclear bomb, utter devastation. The Israelis telling people to go back to their homes in northern Gaza as its "safe", what are they supposed to go back

    Reported on the BBC too... An air strike on an army camp has killed three soldiers, the Syrian government says, blaming the US-led coalition for the attack. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Nothing like school boy stereotyping (you and The PIT both).

    The situation in the middle east/North Africa will end up in hard core Islamic states popping up in several countries which were previously "friendly". Wait and see.

    Nonsense fear-mongering.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Nonsense fear-mongering.

    That's a very short unequivocal statement PP!!

    CatchMyDrift might be over stating it a bit but there must be a real possibility of a radical islamic state being formed in one of these countries, or part of one. Only today Sheik Abdul Majid al-Zindani joined protesters in Sana and called for the replacement of Yemen’s government with an Islamic state. And if that bad boy has anything to do with it, it's unlikely to be a moderate one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    That's a very short unequivocal statement PP!!

    CatchMyDrift might be over stating it a bit but there must be a real possibility of a radical islamic state being formed in one of these countries, or part of one. Only today Sheik Abdul Majid al-Zindani joined protesters in Sana and called for the replacement of Yemen’s government with an Islamic state. And if that bad boy has anything to do with it, it's unlikely to be a moderate one.

    Working on a daily basis with Libyans, Iranians, Omanis etc; that is the last thing the majority of them want to happen. The median age in many of these countries is less than 30 now and the young want more personal freedom, not less. Does not mean there is a risk however. Yemen is probably the highest risk as it is the poorest/least educated population. The evil always pray on these people.

    I would be against stepping in with respect to Libya right now unless complete UN concensus/the situation has become completely untenable/is spreading out not in. You can't force a regime change on people - it has to come from within. If the wests marches in all guns blazing it just helps the fundamentalists argument - 'west wants to control the muslim world'. I still have horrible memories of US soldiers taking down the Iraqi flag on entering bagdad and raising the stars and stripes before a senior officer freaked and had them take it down. Idiots.

    Within the Iranian community that I know here, many firmly believe the current government will fall in time - it is becoming increasingly outdated and the new, younger generations hate it. It may become bloody, but they do not want the west to dive in, they want to do it themselves.

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    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

    If that's the case why didn't we intervene 10, 20, 30 years ago then?

    Well 30 years ago it may well have started World War III.

    There may be the odd country that ends up as a radicalised state as a result of this, but it's a sweeping generalisation that the majority will. There's no history of radical islam in Tunisia, or Bahrain, or Oman or Djibouti and no evidence that all arabic countries are inherently unstable, or that revolution leads automatically to instability - It can do, but it doesn't always. As for military intervention - extremely unlikely in Libya - the anti-Quaddafi factions don't want it and until they do, I suspect we'll all watch this one out.

    Edit - Just seen Scottish Skiers post above. Agree completely.

    Edited by Just Before Dawn
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Nothing like school boy stereotyping (you and The PIT both).

    The situation in the middle east/North Africa will end up in hard core Islamic states popping up in several countries which were previously "friendly". Wait and see.

    CatchMyDrift earlier post.

    The power vacuum will result in hardline Islamists gaining power in at least half of the affected countries. It's all very well saying that these revolutions will result in democracy but in many cases the opposite will happen. Watch this space. It won't be pretty.

    Nothing like calling the pot calling the kettle black except I haven't said it's Islamic driven while you have.

    The only thing I pointed out if the west interferes in the way someone suggested on here it would be a wonderful propaganda coup for extremists.

    I see Cameron was going his own way yesterday hinting about military action that got the USA upset. Unfortunately MR C you're sacking the troops and pilots so there won't be any left too interfere. Unless we do a cut and run from Afghanistan.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    The power vacuum will result in hardline Islamists gaining power in at least half of the affected countries. It's all very well saying that these revolutions will result in democracy but in many cases the opposite will happen. Watch this space. It won't be pretty.

    I have concerns over Yemen - it is very impoverished so could join problematic countries like Somalia and Afganistan. The extremists only tend to manage to control the poor and uneducated by force and fear.

    As noted, if you acutally talk to the average person from Libya, Iran, Algeria (as I do every day - my office mate is from Tehran), you will find they like music, good food, parties, nice houses, play stations, cars, sometimes a wee sneaky tipple, parma ham (my office mate loves the stuff) and people generally not controlling every aspect of their lives. In fact, they are just like everyone else. Some are quite religious, some are not at all. The majority are not strongly and just want to get on with there lives in peace and without repression.

    There will likely be attempts at conservatives trying to gain control, but I can't see these all these countries giving up one dictator for another (clerical) - it is not what they are fighting for.

    Have you spoken to people from these countries?

    EDIT: Example....

    2131: Halwasa Guy tweets: "Never been prouder to be Libyan and I will never let any foreigner steal this revolution. We started it and we'll finish it. #libya #feb17"

    I could not agree more with him.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    There may be many more disaffected individuals such as Muhammad Al Bouazizi, contemplating self-immolation in the face of college debts, unemployment, government intimidation and wasted education certificates. Many young people want more to their lives than existing on state food hand-outs and lackluster social services. But in a world economy that appears obsessed with the perpetual desire for continuing growth, will the interests of the youthful populace of the Middle East start at some point to clash with the more consumption-based lifestyles of the Western (and now also certain classes in the Indian and Chinese) world?

    I personally think they're already clashing.

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Nothing like calling the pot calling the kettle black except I haven't said it's Islamic driven while you have.

    Big difference between something being Islamic driven and Islamofascist driven. Fair enough if anyone in any country from Libya, Tunisia to the Yemen or beyond wants an Islamic state; my point was that there will be a rush by Al-Q operatives to destabilise and then control any or all of the countries which have managed to overthrow their long term dictators.

    There is almost never a smooth and peaceful transition from dictatorship to peace. I'm sorry, but if you think this is all going to pan out perfectly then you're far more naive than I've ever given you credit for. I hope I'm wrong, I really do. But if you can give me more than one example of a dictator giving up power which has ended up without bloodshed then I'm willing to backtrack and say that I'm wrong.

    Nonsense fear-mongering.

    Time will tell if my "fear-mongering" is nonsense or not (and I do hope I'm wrong).

    Of course you'd never give out fear-mongering with your 9/11 nonsense....and you'd never admit you're wrong!!!!!!

    Agreed CMD - and it's not often we agree on something!:rolleyes:

    We actually agree on a lot more than we'd both like to admit.....shhhhh!!! :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Time will tell if my "fear-mongering" is nonsense or not (and I do hope I'm wrong).

    Of course you'd never give out fear-mongering with your 9/11 nonsense....and you'd never admit you're wrong!!!!!!

    http://911truthnews....for-themselves/

    Just some information that you are most likely not aware of.

    Oh, and go read about Phillip Zelikow (head of the 9/11 Commission). See what the Family Steering Committee thought of his attempts to insert a false link between Saddam and 9/11 into the Commission report (among other things he did).

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    CatchMyDrift I never said that although you have.

    Looking at your posts though you do seem to be getting extremely confused though.

    Now going back to actual discussion and not peoples imagination I wonder what the prospects of a two state Libya are. Seems neither side have the power too over throw the other at the moment. A two state Libya arms dealers would love.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    That is pure class PP. :clap: Like it .....does he have any plans for gigs outside Libya??

    Hundreds of thousands now protesting in Yemen...President Ali Abdullah Salehs position is looking precarious to say the least,

    ....and his promotional video suggests that he needs to keep his day job, unlike out talented libyan chum

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

    So much for the "Special" Air Service

    http://www.telegraph...d-in-error.html

    I think we should look at the role the media plays in such events, and the harm they could bring to the people involved.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Another Cameron cock up looking rather inept over all this.

    Now it does like civil war with boundaries being drawn. Do we have the right too interfere?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Now it does like civil war with boundaries being drawn. Do we have the right too interfere?

    Yes I think we should interfere....to a limited extent. A no fly zone can be justified on humanitarian grounds.

    ...the libyan airforce seems somewhat inept and numerous strikes have hit civilian areas. The no fly zone would apply to all...pro-gaddafi and any aircraft that the rebels might get their hands on.

    Several gulf arab states are calling for a no fly zone and this is apparently supported by the arab league.

    http://www.news24.com/World/News/Arab-League-backs-Libya-no-fly-zone-20110307

    We should join the French in setting up the no-fly zone, even without UN approval (this will never be forthcoming given Russia and China's opposition)

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

    If that's the case why didn't we intervene 10, 20, 30 years ago then?

    30 years ago - inept Tory Government

    20 years ago - inept Tory Government

    10 years ago - inept Labour Government.

    That's why.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    30 years ago - inept Tory Government

    20 years ago - inept Tory Government

    10 years ago - inept Labour Government.

    That's why.

    Like i said in an earlier part of the thread if we had played the morale crusade card every time we disagree with a regime in different parts of the world we'd be fighting wars constantly and we'd need conscription to supply the troops :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Like i said in an earlier part of the thread if we had played the morale crusade card every time we disagree with a regime in different parts of the world we'd be fighting wars constantly and we'd need conscription to supply the troops :wallbash:

    We'd even end up invading ourselves. I couldn't help raising a cynical eyebrow when good old uncle sam was on about civilians being bombed this morning.

    It's looking like the West may make a few noises but won't do much due to being over stretched in Afghanistan and Iraq. Of course in the middle east you damned whatever you do. If you help you're bombing our Muslim brothers if you don't you're letting our Muslim brothers die. Unless you're bombing Israel which would go down very well. Much better if the Arab league does the no fly zone itself. What the heck Cameron could sell them some fighters that we're scrapping.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    The Western leaders now condemning Colonel Gaddafi as a madman must be perplexed as to what's gone wrong with him, because up until a month ago they obviously thought he was perfectly sane and well-balanced – otherwise they wouldn't have sold him all those tanks. They must wonder if the stress of being a dictator has got to him, and if he'd had a fortnight off and started yoga all this trouble could have been avoided.

    So maybe the best way to intervene is to send him a good shrink. Then they could make a report for the UN that went: "His desire to refer to his fellow Libyans as 'Cockroaches' who must be killed suggests the patient is experiencing the trauma of feeling he's a woman trapped in a Colonel's body. And the need to make speeches while under an umbrella is a classic symptom of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, so maybe we shouldn't send him any tanks for at least three weeks, until he's better."

    They should have been prepared for this, because they all said he was mad for 30 years, then suddenly decided he was rational about 10 years ago, by coincidence around the time he announced he'd back the West in the war on terror. To be fair, some of those who embraced him at this time are impressively unrepentant. For example, Peter Mandelson insists when Gaddafi renounced his desire for weapons of mass destruction we had to "bring him into the fold" with deals for oil and arms.

    Cont.here:-

    http://www.independe...ic-2236066.html

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    The Western leaders now condemning Colonel Gaddafi as a madman must be perplexed as to what's gone wrong with him, because up until a month ago they obviously thought he was perfectly sane and well-balanced – otherwise they wouldn't have sold him all those tanks. They must wonder if the stress of being a dictator has got to him, and if he'd had a fortnight off and started yoga all this trouble could have been avoided.

    So maybe the best way to intervene is to send him a good shrink. Then they could make a report for the UN that went: "His desire to refer to his fellow Libyans as 'Cockroaches' who must be killed suggests the patient is experiencing the trauma of feeling he's a woman trapped in a Colonel's body. And the need to make speeches while under an umbrella is a classic symptom of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, so maybe we shouldn't send him any tanks for at least three weeks, until he's better."

    They should have been prepared for this, because they all said he was mad for 30 years, then suddenly decided he was rational about 10 years ago, by coincidence around the time he announced he'd back the West in the war on terror. To be fair, some of those who embraced him at this time are impressively unrepentant. For example, Peter Mandelson insists when Gaddafi renounced his desire for weapons of mass destruction we had to "bring him into the fold" with deals for oil and arms.

    Cont.here:-

    http://www.independe...ic-2236066.html

    kerrching goes the cash till.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Looks like the civil war will be quickly over with Gaddaffi back in charge. Means Cameron and co will have to withdraw there must go comments and start talking to Gadaffi again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Looks like the civil war will be quickly over with Gaddaffi back in charge. Means Cameron and co will have to withdraw there must go comments and start talking to Gadaffi again.

    That'll be a relief to many, particularly the US, best to have a brutal dictatorship in these vital countries.

    No doubt the west will prop up the Libyan, Bahrani and Saudi regimes while the oil lasts. God forbid that democracy should prevail....all very unpredictable and messy!!

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