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The Middle East...where Are Events Taking Us?


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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I entirely disagree with such a notion, the ability to rise up themselves is only sufficient when they are not being slaughtered like cattle in response.

    The Syrian people like everybody else have the inaliable right to freedom and liberty and i will not sit idly by and watch the Syrian people get slaughtered by a tyrant. That NATO is rendered inept by the UNSC veto system is a testament to just how flawed the UNSC is.

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    There is no other description for what is happening other than war crime and genocide.   Israel is technically the occupying force on Gaza and as such is duty bound to protect civilians.   Complet

    The scenes in Gaza look like the aftermath of a nuclear bomb, utter devastation. The Israelis telling people to go back to their homes in northern Gaza as its "safe", what are they supposed to go back

    Reported on the BBC too... An air strike on an army camp has killed three soldiers, the Syrian government says, blaming the US-led coalition for the attack. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-

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    I entirely disagree with such a notion, the ability to rise up themselves is only sufficient when they are not being slaughtered like cattle in response.

    The Syrian people like everybody else have the inaliable right to freedom and liberty and i will not sit idly by and watch the Syrian people get slaughtered by a tyrant. That NATO is rendered inept by the UNSC veto system is a testament to just how flawed the UNSC is.

    You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink - the Syrian peoples, the Afghanis, the Iraqis and the Iranians are going through the same sorts of repressions as we did in the middle ages and it is not helped by the inter religious conflict that they have had since Mohammed's two sons decided to fall out. Many of the people in the Soviet Bloc were also repressesd in the last century. Many people in a lot of today's so called African democratric republics are also repressed and until more recent times a number of South American countries were governed by repressive dictatorships but now they appear top have espoused democratic ideals.

    We had to find our way, as did the peoples of the Eastern Bloc and South America. Nobody thanks you for interferring - it is tantamount to barging into an argument between a married couple, for if you are not careful they will both turn on you.

    Also two wrongs do not make a right - Sadam Hussain was an absolute so and so of a tyrant but were we right to invade Iraq the way we did and end up killing countless numbers of people who like you say had an unaliable right to peace and happiness. And to what end, the original excuse was to fight terrorism but it engendered even more terrorism.

    Some of these peoples have customs and traditions which appear to be most barbaric to our modern western society but it is not up to us to impose our values on them - given time they will decide for themselves what they want and any peace coming as a result will be longer lasting.

    As demonstrated by some of Scottish Skier's, posts who works with and appears to know some Iranians quite well, they display very civilised and courteous behaviour, so this indicates to me that the seeds of reform have already been sown and are taking root.

    Don't forget that the ancient Persian civilisation was on a par with the ancient Greeks for quite a bit of the time until Alexander had a pop at them but that (the Greek occupation) did not last for long after his death.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    But Libya was one of Cameron's greatest achievements.

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    But Libya was one of Cameron's greatest achievements.

    Until we have a signed and sealed package of a democracy we can do business with I would not call it an achievement.

    Though there is a government in power different factions, some of which include Islamic groups, are still vying for power, hence the continuing turbulance.

    I think that the problem we have with Islam is that it it not only a religion, it is also a political system which reaches into every corner of peoples' lives, so now we have westernised groups, more interested in secular government and religious groups interested in establishing an Islamic state, plus a mixture of different tribal allegiances and it is going to take quite a while for this lot to settle down.

    Edited by mike Meehan
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Until we have a signed and sealed package of a democracy we can do business with I would not call it an achievement.

    Though there is a government in power different factions, some of which include Islamic groups, are still vying for power, hence the continuing turbulance.

    I think that the problem we have with Islam is that it it not only a religion, it is also a political system which reaches into every corner of peoples' lives, so now we have westernised groups, more interested in secular government and religious groups interested in establishing an Islamic state, plus a mixture of different tribal allegiances and it is going to take quite a while for this lot to settle down.

    Yup another county we've destabilised.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
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  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    When will Israel having there pre-emptive strike against Iran? It seems for them taking forever, whats stopping them from attacking Iran?

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    When will Israel having there pre-emptive strike against Iran? It seems for them taking forever, whats stopping them from attacking Iran?

    Common sense?

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  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Yup another county we've destabilised.

    So you don't think the Soviet Union and now Russia have been more guilty of this over the last 60 years? Actually, as in a recent article i posted, they don't need any help destabalising and they never did.

    Perhaps if they hadn't spent so many years trying to eradicate Israel with Soviet help they may now be in a better position.

    Edited by knocker
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    So you don't think the Soviet Union and now Russia have been more guilty of this over the last 60 years? Actually, as in a recent article i posted, they don't need any help destabalising and they never did.

    Perhaps if they hadn't spent so many years trying to eradicate Israel with Soviet help they may now be in a better position.

    In that case they appear to be in an invidious position - on one hand they now have ex Soviet, now Islamic States on their doorstep with whom relations are none too great and the anti- Israel stance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    When will Israel having there pre-emptive strike against Iran? It seems for them taking forever, whats stopping them from attacking Iran?

    Politics is all about taking advantage of opportunities and whilst there is a general dislike of Iran this is the time for rhetoric and not action (they replace the Iranian leader in a year), if the new leader is more western friendly then only rhetoric will persist, if he continues to be abrasive over nuclear then consider us at war as the USA, Uk and Isreal (potentially NATO as a whole) crush the Iranian government.

    Yup another county we've destabilised.

    Oh yes because genocide by the government was a far better option.

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Oh yes because genocide by the government was a far better option.

    But we still got genocide so have we improved things? Nope not at all. Just killed a few more civilians while we intervened and killings will continue.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    But we still got genocide so have we improved things? Nope not at all. Just killed a few more civilians while we intervened and killings will continue.

    Instead of 30,000 people dying like in Syria we got a few thousand.

    Like choosing between eating onions and drinking left trouser leg, one alternative was still better.

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Instead of 30,000 people dying like in Syria we got a few thousand.

    Like choosing between eating onions and drinking left trouser leg, one alternative was still better.

    More people have died in Iraq since our intervention than before and the same will eventually apply in Libya. This what happens when you haven't got any proper leaders to step in. Syria would be the same as they have no organised resitance it's all seperate cells.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    More people have died in Iraq since our intervention than before and the same will eventually apply in Libya. This what happens when you haven't got any proper leaders to step in. Syria would be the same as they have no organised resitance it's all seperate cells.

    Living under tyranny is not living at all, you need only look at our treatment of the USA for parallels.

    I would rather a free and divided Syria eventually sort itself out than allow a tyrant to commit genocide in the name of stability.

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    Living under tyranny is not living at all, you need only look at our treatment of the USA for parallels.

    I would rather a free and divided Syria eventually sort itself out than allow a tyrant to commit genocide in the name of stability.

    Did the American colonists really live under the tyranny of the British Crown? They did not like the idea of paying taxes without in parliament but is that really tyranny?

    Wouldn't we all but normally the tyrants surround themselves with such a firewall of security so it is virtually impossible to get to them, plus they govern through a climate of fear and informers, so what would you suggest?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Did the American colonists really live under the tyranny of the British Crown? They did not like the idea of paying taxes without in parliament but is that really tyranny?

    Wouldn't we all but normally the tyrants surround themselves with such a firewall of security so it is virtually impossible to get to them, plus they govern through a climate of fear and informers, so what would you suggest?

    There is evidence to suggest that their was an increasing ethnic divide between those 'Americans' and the English stationed there so whilst its true that i was a little sensationalist there were certainly fuses ready to be sparked.

    As i say, the only way to remove them is direct action be it through Iraq style occupation or Libya style air strikes. Naturally i do think that Libya presents a good case study in that if you have existing rebels then you can aid them without putting many men on the ground but its one of those things like with drugs that there may be no correct policy for.

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    There is evidence to suggest that their was an increasing ethnic divide between those 'Americans' and the English stationed there so whilst its true that i was a little sensationalist there were certainly fuses ready to be sparked.

    As i say, the only way to remove them is direct action be it through Iraq style occupation or Libya style air strikes. Naturally i do think that Libya presents a good case study in that if you have existing rebels then you can aid them without putting many men on the ground but its one of those things like with drugs that there may be no correct policy for.

    In my view, if we follow your policies we run the risk of creating a hydra headed monster.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    More people have died in Iraq since our intervention than before and the same will eventually apply in Libya. This what happens when you haven't got any proper leaders to step in. Syria would be the same as they have no organised resitance it's all seperate cells.

    I assume you are ignoring the couple of million when Saddam attacked Iran? Iraq was a danger to the whole of the ME. Regarding proper leaders. Just look at the history of the ME since WW2.

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    There is evidence to suggest that their was an increasing ethnic divide between those 'Americans' and the English stationed there so whilst its true that i was a little sensationalist there were certainly fuses ready to be sparked.

    As i say, the only way to remove them is direct action be it through Iraq style occupation or Libya style air strikes. Naturally i do think that Libya presents a good case study in that if you have existing rebels then you can aid them without putting many men on the ground but its one of those things like with drugs that there may be no correct policy for.

    It started off with the throwing of the tea into the harbour at Boston, rather than pay taxes on it and from there it escalated - just shows what can happen when you let things get out of control.

    The only policy I can think of is to give them non military help when they ask for it but otherwise we really have to let them find their own way. Parts of their society are still run along fuedal lines having allegiance to different tribal leaders They have been split religiously since the leadership was disputed after the death of Mohammed and since Islam is political as well as religious this dispute has never been resolved, so this means that whenever one particular section gains ascendency, there are other sections opposing it, sometimes with bloody results.

    We have seen that to topple a regime there creats a power vacuum to which a there a number of contenders rushing in to fill it with fighting and loss of life along the way. The only way democratic government will come is when the majority of the people are ready for it and willing to put their differences behind them.

    They are an ancient culture and very proud and do not take kindly to being told how they should live their lives or govern themselves by a 'Johny Come Lately' such as the USA. There is resentment in the Middle east caused in more recent times by the division of the area by the UK and France after WWI, despite promises given for their aid in fighting against Germany, This awakens earlier resentments against the Crusaders in the Middle Ages, then we have the rush for oil when goes to enrich many western enterprises but does relatively little for the people (not that the people would be helped by their own leaders in any case but that is the nature of their society). Then encouraged by the USA the United Nations votes for the establishment of a state of Israel circa 1948, displacing many ethinic Palestinians.

    As they see it, they do not have too much to thank us for. That is why I say we should interfere as little as possible and give them room and time to find their own way. Amongst their populace there are intelligent and enlightened people, the number of whom grow everyday especially since they have access to modern communications and they cannot be kept in slavery and ignorance any more, which is the only way that tyrants and despots can keep the people downtrodden. The people are starting to rise, as we have seen in the Arab Spring of the last year or so - these are going to cause turbulance and leadership disputes and for a time there will be bloody mayhem - our military interference won't make any difference to this as we have seen in Iraq, it is now happening in Libya and Afghanistan. Pakistan is far from stable and with the best will in the world we do not have the troops or hardware available to contain all these different areas. Continued interference does little more than throw petrol on a fire.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Israel is ready to launch military action if Hezbollah militants try to move chemical weapons or long-range ballistic missiles from Syria into Lebanon, the Israeli Defence Minister said yesterday.

    Ehud Barak voiced concern about the fate of Syria’s stockpile of weapons once the regime of President Assad falls, which he predicts will happen before the end of 2013.

    The veteran politician and decorated general also warned that the possible need for a pre-emptive air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities would return next spring, before the Islamic Republic is able to enrich enough uranium to make an atomic bomb. The chances of such a pre-emptive attack happening this year diminished after the Iranian regime deliberately delayed its own enrichment programme.

    Mr Barak is in London to meet Philip Hammond, William Hague and Sir Kim Darroch, Britain’s national security adviser, at a time when the Middle East is looking increasingly volatile.

    A critical issue for Israel, Britain and the US is the security of Syria’s weapons, which could easily reach Hezbollah. “We are worried that when he collapses, before everything goes out of control, they might try to take several advanced surface-to-air missile systems in order to deploy them in Lebanon or several Scud heavy missiles that cover practically the whole of Israel from Lebanon, and bring it to their arsenal,†Mr Barak said.

    “Under certain circumstances they might contemplate trying to bring some chemical materials or munitions or whatever. We are determined not to let it happen because it will change the very delicate balance in Lebanon right now.†Asked whether such a move could happen as early as this winter, Mr Barak said: “It could, I hope it won’t but it could.†He added: “We are watching and we are ready to act.â€

    Full transcipt with the Times interview with Barak.

    Q: Looking at Syria, Israel is concern over the potential movement of chemical weapons and advanced weapons systems. How likely is it that these are going to be moved and you will have to act perhaps this winter?

    A: It is not an insignificant chance that it will happen. We do not want it to happen but when Assad collapses it will mean a major blow to both Hezbollah and even Iran, the whole radical axis will be shattered. Under this situation they are Bashar’s only active support on the ground – Hezbollah and the Iranians... We are worried that when he collapses before everything goes out of control they might try to take several advanced surface to air missile systems in order to deploy them in Lebanon or several Scud heavy missiles that cover practically the whole of Israel from Lebanon and bring it to their arsenal. Under certain circumstances they might contemplate trying to bring some chemical materials or munitions or whatever. We are determined not to let it happen because it will change the very delicate balance in Lebanon right now. Hezbollah is quite a crazy phenomenon. It is a militia that happened to have members in parliament, a veto power in the Lebanese government but still they have their own foreign and security policies and they gathered some 60,000 rockets and thousands of them cover the central part of Israel so it is an inherently unstable situation but it could get much worse if they get advanced weapon system or SAM systems or some chemical material. We are watching and we are ready to act. We have made it public.

    Q: Could this happen this year?

    A: It could, I hope it won’t but it could. He will collapse. I don’t believe that he will see 2014 in power.

    Q: What impact would the collapse of the Assad regime have on the calculation that Israel makes of this pre-emptive strike on Iran in terms of what happens the day after given that it would affect that axis that you have talked about?

    A: It will be a major blow. Iran created what I call a shade banana from Tehran to south Iraq to Damascus to the shores of the Mediterranean in south Lebanon. It is their only stronghold within the Arab world. When Bashar will fall it will be a major blow. They will end up being weaker... But they will not disappear. The 60,000 rockets are still in the hands of Hezbollah. Their world net of terror dormant cells is still there, supported by Iran. We have found their fingerprints in some terror events this year in Thailand, India, Bulgaria and this all will still be there. I don’t see a direct relationship to what happens in Iran. I don’t expect them to cancel to give up their nuclear aspirations just because Bashar al-Assad fell but they will be somewhat weaker and more vulnerable..

    Q: Looking at Iran, there has been talk that the Iranians delayed nuclear programme by 8 to 10 months, why was that?

    A: You have to look at the IAEA report. It is either out of the deterrence created by our position or the open discussion between us and the United States, you and other Europeans about what are the circumstances under which this option that has not been removed from the table should be contemplated seriously probably deterred them. Probably they just made a gambit in order to cross this sensitive period before the American election and not to provide us with the justification to contemplate a strike. Probably they have done it in order to prove to the IAEA that they are complying with the norms of nominal objectives of enrichment to 20 per cent. I cannot penetrate their considerations but what they have done basically is to reprocess several dozens of kilograms backwards into fuel rods for the Tehran research reactor. It doesn’t blur or erase the challenge because in a moment, early notice or without ever [notifying] anyone they can continue. It is part of their programme. We basically see the Iranians determined to defy, [deceive] and deter the whole world from intervening and just walking in the footsteps of Pakistan, North Korea and reach military nuclear capability and that’s a challenge for the world. That challenge is still there. When we talk about the need not to remove any option off the table we are sharing the same rhetoric with other leaders in the world, including the American administration. We mean it and we expect others to mean it.

    Q: It appears to be a question of when not if a pre-emptive strike happens with a timeline of spring or early summer of next year?

    A: I think that basically we would love to see the Ayatollahs deciding to remove it. We would love to see the sanctions or diplomacy working, causing the ayatollahs to sit together and decide to stop this programme but we are too realistic and too experienced in the Middle East to expect it. We are extremely sceptical about the chances that it will happen. I don’t want to talk in deterministic terms. We are always looking for a way to avoid the need but on the other hand it is exactly the way that Prime Minister Netanyahu put it in his famous appearance in the General Assembly several weeks ago when he said that this red line might become the objective of the Iranians to cross during the next spring or summer and that will bring once again the issue in its whole weight for the whole world, not just for Israel, as a concrete issue for a decision. What we basically say is that if we let them cross a certain line at least from an Israeli point of view it might become an issue for commentators, historians or whatever, not for decision makers and we have to bear it in mind. When it comes to issues which are crucial to the very future and security of the state of Israel we cannot delegate the responsibility for making the decision even to the hands of our closest, most trusted and most trustworthy allies.

    Q: People talk with scepticism as to whether Israel alone could deliver any significant blow to the Iranian nuclear programme.

    A: We said loud and clear that we do not pretend to be able to delay it forever but we can if worse comes to worse delay it significantly and I believe the Americans can probably delay it by a longer period, also not forever and combined with other steps it could be contemplated the real competition is between the need to block Iran before it turns nuclear, which the whole world seems to be committed to do, and the survivability of this regime. I don’t believe that they are totally immune to what happened in the Arab world. The Arab Spring could be translated into Farsi and it should be done by their own people. It cannot be orchestrated by us and we think that basically we, the free world, and Israel is in a competition with the survivability of this regime and the reaching of nuclear capability. If this regime will turn into a nuclear power it will get a new layer of immunity, not just immunity for their technical aspect of the military nuclear programme but immunity for the regime itself. Just have a look at what happened in Syria. Whoever tells us: Oh if worse comes to worse and they try to weaponise themselves of course the world will act because it is a clear commitment and there is no choice. But looking at Syria we cannot draw a lesson even if unspeakable atrocities are taking place and bulldozers are digging trenches where the bodies of kids and women and elderly people are put in blankets side by side it doesn’t mean that the world can find the unity of purpose, the political will or the readiness to coordinate an action in order to stop it. Assume what Iranians... can do to frustrate or supress simmering from within if they are nuclear? Who would even dare to contemplate to do something from the outside world? I am basically saying that dealing with Iran before they cross this point of no return is not a simple issue, it is not a picnic, it is not without complications, dangers and even certain potential unintended consequences but to deal with Iran several years down this stream once it turned nuclear will end up being much more complicated, much more dangerous, much more costly in terms of human life and the financial resources. That is what calls for sincere serious thought now about it before it might become too late. We are not about to make a decision next week but it is not a matter of weeks and it is not a matter of years.

    Q: Just looking at what happened in Sudan, the strike at Yarmouk facility, people are saying it was an Israeli test run to show that they could do that and also hitting a facility that was channeling weapons, some from Libya, to Gaza. Can you talk about that?

    A: I have nothing to contribute to the open discussion of this issue.

    Q: What about Sinai and worries that it could become ungoverned space?

    A: We are worried about the repeated attempts of the terrorists in Gaza to bypass the very effective defence on the border of Gaza, which is limited in length, and to go through Sinai and try to infiltrate through Sinai. We intercepted several of these terrorist attacks in the last year and a half and at least one or two of them were quite successful and caused damage and fatalities. That worries us. We expect the Egyptians to resume full control of Sinai. It will take certain modifications or temporary agreed changes in the protocols of the military annex in order to enable them for limited periods to deploy more forces. We are ready to consider this as long as the peace treaty is in place, remains untouched and military annex per se remains untouched. We did it. We allowed them to enter with more force.

    Q: What are you doing here?

    A: I am going to meet with Hague, with Douglas Alexander, with my colleague in defence, with the national security advisor. We are here to exchange views about the situation. The UK is directly involved in many issues such as the sanctions in Iran.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article3584868.ece

    Edited by knocker
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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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    I assume you are ignoring the couple of million when Saddam attacked Iran? Iraq was a danger to the whole of the ME. Regarding proper leaders. Just look at the history of the ME since WW2.

    You mean when tried to get Saddam to remove the Ayotollah for us.

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    As they see it, they do not have too much to thank us for. That is why I say we should interfere as little as possible and give them room and time to find their own way. Amongst their populace there are intelligent and enlightened people, the number of whom grow everyday especially since they have access to modern communications and they cannot be kept in slavery and ignorance any more, which is the only way that tyrants and despots can keep the people downtrodden. The people are starting to rise, as we have seen in the Arab Spring of the last year or so - these are going to cause turbulance and leadership disputes and for a time there will be bloody mayhem - our military interference won't make any difference to this as we have seen in Iraq, it is now happening in Libya and Afghanistan. Pakistan is far from stable and with the best will in the world we do not have the troops or hardware available to contain all these different areas. Continued interference does little more than throw petrol on a fire.

    Pretty well spot on that Mike

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Things looking much worse now as Isreal take out a Hamas Military chief. No doubt in response to constant missile launches but it's one huge risk at this time.

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