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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Carlos

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Invest 99S has developed into a tropical cyclone as it has moved over water north of Darwin, Australia. 15S has an intensity of 35kts. 15S has been bringing some high rainfall totals and flooding to Darwin, as well as strong winds. These conditions will only slowly ease as 15S is expected to be slow moving over the next day or so. Eventually, ridging to the south will become the dominant steering influence and steer 15S southwestwards across the Josef Bonaparte gulf to make landfall northeast of Broome. However, despite this being the current favoured scenario, model agreement is not great and thus the track forecast could change.

One thing is quite likely though; 15S should intensify. The tightly curved banding the storm is exhibiting, along with the deep convective mass indicates 15S is poised to strengthen. With low shear and sea temps as high as 34C (!) in the Josef Bonaparte gulf, 15S could strengthen significantly if it stays over open water for any length of time.

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This system has been named Ts Carlos, with the track being very un-predictable. I hope it doesn't follow the track of the black arrows ( towards pine creek) as i worked there two years ago and the area is very prone to major flooding.

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Certainly unpredictable Michail, I agree. Carlos has moved back inland over Darwin today, and therefore has not strengthened beyond 35kts. The southwesterly track should still materialise, but even so, Carlos will probably remain over land for at least the next 36hrs. Carlos may briefly emerge over the southern Josef Bonapate gulf where some modest intensification may occur before the cyclone moves inland again. Despite hugging land, Carlos should remain a tropical cyclone as part of the storm is over very warm water, and shear is also very low.

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this system is dumping a lot of rain and breaking records!

si201115.gif

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Carlos has moved southeastwards further inland, and as a result as lost it's fuel source (the sea). Carlos is no longer a tropical cyclone as convection is minimal near the weakening centre and most of the convection associated with the low is in an increasingly detached band north of the LLC. Ex-Carlos is now moving southwestward and could briefly re-emerge over the extreme south of the Josef Bonaparte gulf where a short lived re-generation is possible before Ex-Carlos dives inland. Another scenarion just as likely is that the low remains over land and dissipates completely.

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The remnant low of Carlos is still over land but clearly identifiable on satellite imagery. The system has remained to the south of the Josef Bonaparte gulf and will not redevelop into a tropical cyclone here. However, ridging to the south is steering Ex-Carlos westwards and the remnant low should emerge over water north of the Pilbara Coast in about 18-24hrs time, and with a favourable environment ahead, Ex-Carlos looks like it will redevelop at this point. Fascinating system to watch, and amazing structure for being over land for so long!

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The tenacious remnant low of Carlos has moved over water southwest of Broome and re-developed into

45kt tropical cyclone. Carlos has some strong banding, particularly west of the LLC, and some much more widespread and deep convective activity surrounding the centre now the system is over water. A west-southwesterly track is expected, meaning Carlos will parallel the Pilbarra Coast. Moderate easterly shear is impinging on Carlos and will slow intensification but not stop it. So it seems Carlos will be a lot stronger in his second life than his first. Already from the large rainband to the west of Carlos' LLC some torrential rains are falling and primary concern at the moment is going to be flooding.

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Carlos has intensified to 55kts. At the same time, the cyclone has moved closer to the coast on a southwesterly track. Carlos is likely to make landfall in Exmouth then re-emerge over water as the southwesterly track persists. Therefore, little intensification is expected due to land interaction over the next 18hrs or so, but Carlos may strengthen a little more over open water west of the Australian mainland before the cyclone goes the same way as Dianne over colder water and high shear as the track bends to the south out of the tropics.

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Carlos crossed land at Exmouth as a 60kt system. The cyclone has emerged over water, but land interaction has taken it's toll on Carlos and intensity has lowered slightly to 55kts. Carlos should strrengthen a little over the next 24hrs over warm water before sea temps decline on the southwesterly track.

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Carlos has strengthened to 65kts (cat 1 on the SS scale), and has a large, well defined eye. JTWC remark that Carlos is almost Annular, as this intensification has happened in waters of about 25-26C, and the system has lost banding but has developed a thick ring of convection around the eye. As Carlos is displaying annular characteristics, the cyclone may be slow to weaken over the much colder water it's about to move over.

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