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Somerset Squall

West Pacific And North Indian Ocean Invest Thread 2011

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This thread is to discuss all invests (disturbances suspect for tropical cyclone development) that occur during 2011. A thread will be made for all invests that are upgraded to Tropical Cyclone status.

Well, not much going on in the West Pacific or North Indian Ocean at the moment as both are in their quiet phases. However, even at this time of year tropical cyclones can form just not as frequently as in the Summer.

We do have an invest in the North Indian Ocean, near Sri Lanka (invest 91B). This system has remained in a weak state over the last few days and now seems to be dissipating.

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West Pacific:

Invest 91W has formed to the southeast of the Philippines. The invest has very slowly gained organisation over the last couple of days. An LLC appears to be forming and convection is gradually becoming more concentrated near this centre. Conditions are generally favourable for some further development as shear is low to moderate and waters are warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression. JTWC assess the chances of TC formation in the next 24hrs as FAIR.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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West Pacific:

97W dissipated.

Invest 95W has formed southeast of the Philippines. Convection is slowly organising about a developing LLC. Shear is low, waters are warm, and outflow is good. JTWC assess the chances of TC formation within the next 24hrs as FAIR.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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West Pacific:

JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on 95W. Regardless of development, 95W looks set to unleash some dangerously high amounta of rain on the Philippines if it continues to move westwards. Convection has grown hugely today and continues to wrap towards the LLC. 95W looks on course to become the seasons second tropical depression.

North Indian Ocean;

No invests.

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West Pacific:

95W became Tropical Depression 02W.

Invest 97W has formed in the southern South China Sea, about 170 miles west-northwest of Brunei. The system may contain some remains of TD 01W, but the LLC that is developing now is a new one. Convection is fairly shallow, but is increasing and beginning to wrap around an increasingly well defined LLC. Shear is moderate at 25kts, but this only seems so be slowing development not stopping it. Sea temps are around 27-28C, warm enough for development. JTWC assess the chances of TC formation in the next 24hrs as FAIR and I would agree. COuld go either way this one as the conditions are marginally favourable, but I have to say the LLC looks quite impressive at the moment so don't be surprised to see the seasons third tropical depression to form out of 97W. Would be the third this month too!

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

post-1820-0-61391900-1302081337_thumb.jp

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quite start to the year isn't it.

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It feels that way but for the West Pacific it is running about par so far with the formation of two tropical depressions. However, none of them became named storms though it is early days yet. The South Pacific started active but tapered off and the Southwest Indian Ocean has had one of it's quietest seasons on record with only the the 'C' storm reached. This has really made it very quiet recently and 2011 globally I'd estimate is running below average.

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Inwest 93W formed yesterday in W Pacific.

Invest 95B dissipated on 27 April in N Indian Ocean.

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West Pacific:

Invest 93W has formed at 7N, 132E, around 80 miles southwest of Palau. Convection is slowly increasing and beginning to organise around a broad and weak LLC. 93W is slowly organising in an area of low shear and very warm sea temperatures. Further slow development appears likely as the favourable conditions look set to persist. However, the disturbance has a lot of work to do before becoming a tropical depression. JTWC assess the chances of this occuring within the next 24hrs as POOR.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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West Pacific:

93W became Tropical Storm Aere.

Invest 98W has formed at 7N, 146E. Broken convection is loosely organising around a broad and weak LLC. Shear is low and waters are warm which on their own suggest further development occuring. However, low level convergence is poor meaning there is a lack of rising, unstable air in the area. In addition, the weak LLC has little or no outflow to further tighten. Unless these factors improve, further development will be slow or may not occur at all and the invest could dissipate at any time. However, given the weak LLC evident and some fairly persistant convection the invest certainly does need watching.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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West Pacific:

98W became category 5 Super Typhoon Songda.

Invest 90W has formed in the northeastern South China sea, west of the Philippines. A weak LLC seems to have formed, but convection is not well organised. However, shear is low and waters are toasty at around 30C. These factors suggest further development, but TC formation is unlikely within the next 24hrs, more likely thereafter.

Invest 91W has formed out to sea at 7.5N, 139.4E. Convection is slowly increasing and beginning to show signs of rotation in the area. Shear is low, and waters are very warm. This suggests some further development as the disturbance heads west towards the Philippines.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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West Pacific:

90W has moved briskly northeastwards and is now located near Taiwan. The system has not become any better organised since I last posted, mainly due to a trough causing subsidence and dry air over the western half of the LLC. In addition, shear is now increasing- so the most likely scenario is for 90W to dissipate.

91W has dissipated.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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West Pacific:

90W has dissipated.

Invest 92W has formed south of Guam. Convection is increasing near a developing LLC. Shear is low and waters are around 30C which suggests 92W will develop further. JTWC assess the risk of TC formation in the next 24hrs as LOW, but these chances should rise thereafter. The LLC looks quite distinct but the convection is presently disorganised.

North Indian Ocean:

Invest 98A has formed off the west coast of India. Further development is not expected as the disturbance is expected to move inland.

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West Pacific:

92W has moved westwards over the last few days with little organisation. However, the LLC has become much better defined today as evidenced in satellite imagery. However, convection is somewhat sparse near the centre. The system is moving through the islands of the Philippines, which could disrupt development. However, the water that 92W does pass over is around 31C in temperature, and the upper level environment is favourable with low shear in the area. These factors suggest continued development, but it's worth noting that 92W has struggled over the last few days despite a generally favourable environment.

North Indian Ocean:

98A has hovered off the west coast of India with no further development. The LLC is weak and the convection disorganised. Shear is low and waters warm, but upper level divergence is poor, choking convective development. With the sporadic and fairly shallow convection, the LLC is remaining weak. Further development will be hindered by lack of outflow and land interaction.

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West Pacific:

92W is now entering the South China Sea and continues to show signs of organisation. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system. Now 92W is moving away from land, it is likely to become a tropical depression sooner rather than later as shear is low and waters very warm.

North Indian Ocean:

98A has unexpectedly turned westwards, moved away from land, and consequently become much better organised. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system. The LLC is developing nicely, tucked beneath an expanding area of convection Shear is low, outflow is improving, and waters are hot which all suggests continued development.

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West Pacific;

92W became Tropical Storm Sarika.

Invest 97W formed and has become Tropical Depression 06W.

Invest 98W has formed several hundred miles east of TD 06W, and is located at 4N, 141E. The system is currently lacking organisation and looks rather messy. However, convection is flaring widely in the area, and with low shear and warm waters, some development may occur. 98W's main problem is it's proximity to the equator, which means there is not much spin for an area of low pressure to wind up. I suspect this is half the reason the invest is so disorganised at present. 98W will have to lift northwards if it is to stand a real chance of development.

North Indian Ocean:

98A became Tropical Cyclone 01A.

Invest 99B has formed in the extreme north of the Bay of Bengal. 99B has actually drifted inland across northeast India but does remain close to the coast and therefore warm water. 99B is in a very favourable upper level environment with low shear and good outflow. However, as most of the circulation is over land, the system may not develop further and instead dissipate as it drifts northwards. However, JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert as it is close to becoming a TC with deepening central convection (enhanced by the good outflow and a moist inflow from the Bay of Bengal), and formative banding features. 99B may briefly become a tropical cyclone before the circulation moves enitirely over land. If 99B were to move south back over water (not expected), it would be met by high shear which would dissipate the system. Because 99B is boxed between land and shear, the long term outlook is bleak for the system. But as I said, it may briefly become a TC.

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West Pacific:

98W dissipated.

Invest 99W formed east of the Philippines a couple of days ago, west of where 98W dissipated, and now seems to be organising into a tropical depression. JMA are keen on the system to become a tropcial storm in the next 24hrs, and JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system. The environment is favourable with low shear and warm sea temps beneath the system. Organisation has been slow up to now due the large size of the system, but convection is slowly building near the developing LLC and banding features are becoming evident. Could become a tropical depression as soon as tonight.

North Indian Ocean:

99B retained good organisation well inland and actually looked like an inland tropical cycloen at times. However, the invest continued to track northwestwards away from water and has now dissipated.

No other invests.

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West Pacific:

Invest 99W became Tropical Storm Meari.

94W dissipated.

Invest 90W formed and has become Typhoon Ma-on.

Invest 92W has formed east of the Philippines. A small, fairly well defined LLC has formed, but convection is modest, supressed by troughing to the north. This subsidence will supress poleward outflow and therefore convection, but the presence of a developed LLC indicates that the otherwise favourable environment will allow some further development from 92W. JTWC assess the TC formation risk as LOW for the next 24hrs.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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92W

TCFA issued on this system.

201107140514mtsat2xvis1.jpg

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92W became Ma-On

93W

TCFA issued

wp9311.gif

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West Pacific;

92W became TS Tokage.

93W became Typhoon Nock-ten.

94W formed and has become TD 11W.

Invest 95W has formed to the east of TD 11W, at 9N, 153E, 170 miles northwest of Chuuk. Convection is flaring in the area but there are no signs of an LLC, or significant organisation of the convection. Moderate shear is imping on 95W, just like TD 11W to the west. As long as this shear persists, 95W will find it hard to organise itself. Some slow development is possible over the next few days. JTWC assess the chances of TC formation in the next 24hrs as LOW.

North Indian Ocean:

No invests.

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