London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

[yamkin]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

updated ensembles

if you think our weather is hard to work out

scroll down to berlin and try to work that one out

Hi JP, I have this inner feeling that the block to our East stands firm and the Atlantic gives in and we endure very cold conditions from the East. It's just something I believe Mother Nature will decide to change at a moments notice later this week

During the Hurricane winds during October 1987, the MetO Boffs calculated that the deep low would not come further North to the UK, but Mother Nature had other ideas and the rest is history. The incredible change of deep pressure direction all happened in one day despite what the models showed.

Off to bed now :lazy:

Edited February 16, 2011 by yamkin

[Jayces]

No dissrespect to the BOM but it's an Australian model so how reliable is it?

In the main model thread I often hear the word cannon fodder model and I guess it's because it's reliablity is questionable.

The question has to be asked if the 2 main models (GFS, ECM & UKMO) are all showing mild at the same time the BOM is showing cold then it's more likely (though not guaranteed) that the BOM is wrong (hehe, that rhymes)

I fear we are trying to find cold in whatever model there is rather then going with what is being shown as the most likely outcome by the big 3.

Having said that, fair play about the 87 storm, though we are a small country and a hundred miles in weather distance is nothing but affects a great deal hence why I believe a slight adjustment North made all the difference then.

The roller coaster continues with everything still to play for.

[Marie]

Lovely sunny day here,i am a coldie but to be honest i want spring now as today is giving me a taste for it.

[95 Degrees]

Lovely sunny day here,i am a coldie but to be honest i want spring now as today is giving me a taste for it.

Hopefully it stays all day I'm enjoying just having some decent mild sun! Good weather today.

[Coast]

Lovely sunny day here

and very pleasant to the North of you here at work. I just wish it would make its mind up, but the reality is that it will be what it will be - it's the models that can't seem to settle!

[yamkin]

Forget the models at the moment because the MetO are really unsure what the massive block in the East is going to do. They are very confident that the NW will get heavy snow, but they are keeping an eye on this block as it could penetrate further West giving other areas heavy snow.

snow1975 on the model thread posted this latest BBC weather forecast which is very interesting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_9399000/9399973.stm

[snowbob]

Interesting to say the least yamkin it's all in the air mate

[yamkin]

Interesting to say the least yamkin it's all in the air mate

Take a look at these Easterlies which all came from nothing. Not saying it will happen this time, but you never know http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=5645&mid=279560

Edited February 16, 2011 by yamkin

[snowbob]

Take a look at these Easterlies which all came from nothing. Not saying it will happen this time, but you never know http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=5645&mid=279560

I see what you mean mate it's not over till it's over lol. Anything could happen with this setup. Exciting times

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

interesting outlook from met office for south east

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.1336032388664&lon=0.18867924528301927

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

from 96hr to 120hr look at the atlantic difference

for the weekend i think we will probably end up

seeing what the temperature is on saturday and

then checking the radar to see who gets what

i would say that we need to see the jet stream change

its course as on the gfs it does not look in a good

position for cold weather.I am not however saying that it

is right as i do not trust any chart at present.

try again tomorrow night :wacko:

[yamkin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

interesting outlook from met office for south east

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.1336032388664&lon=0.18867924528301927

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

from 96hr to 120hr look at the atlantic difference

for the weekend i think we will probably end up

seeing what the temperature is on saturday and

then checking the radar to see who gets what

i would say that we need to see the jet stream change

its course as on the gfs it does not look in a good

position for cold weather.I am not however saying that it

is right as i do not trust any chart at present.

try again tomorrow night :wacko:

JP, Did you hear about The biggest solar flare for 4 years which ejected particles from it which hit Earth? Well, this was reported early on 15th Feb by the BBC. I wonder if this will change the weather pattern in the SE we are now seeing. Here's the link http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12485104

[Jayces]

I said this time last week that we wouldn't know what is happening until this weekend and this is still the case. The models have changed repeatedly.

Would be ironic if this solar flare changed the weather pattern to a colder one considering where it originated from.....

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.1336032388664&lon=-0.09433962264150963

i think fi starts 24th going by these

gfs run certainly looks too mild

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

updated fax chart puts high pressure closer

to the east of the uk

this should strenghten the block more

fax charts later may be interesting

back later

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

messy

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.1336032388664&lon=-0.09433962264150963

possibly better agreement

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.53846153846153&lon=-0.2830188679245289

agreement to 22nd but temperature only average no blow torch here

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

good luck to the pro forecasters

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rgem721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rgem721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rngp721.gif

jet stream charts still looking poor at present

lets see what tomorrow brings

Edited February 17, 2011 by john pike

[Jayces]

I fear it's time to pack our bags John and for Yamkin to change his signature

Unless by some miracle there is a huge turn around by all the models (I am talking about the big 3 here) then it looks like a number of LRF by even those who do so professionally are going to be very wrong for the end of the month.

Sure, winter is not over, we can feasibly still get snow but it's higly unlikely to be long lasting or even settling during March / April.

Still, can't complain about December and in reality for us here in London anyway if we looked at how long we had laying snow for it's comparible to the last few years except it was all in one go rather then coming and going over the whole of winter.

It's not over yet but it certainly isn't looking good at the moment.

[lottiekent]

Sky news's weather this morning had the SE for temps of 10c this afternoon! Proves how 'talented' they are as it only ever got as high as 5c and it's now 4c with a windchill of 0c!

Do they have meteorologists assemble their forecasts does anyone know?

Edited February 18, 2011 by snowgirlkent

[95 Degrees]

Sky news's weather this morning had the SE for temps of 10c this afternoon! Proves how 'talented' they are as it only ever got as high as 5c and it's now 4c with a windchill of 0c!

Do they have meteorologists assemble their forecasts does anyone know?

suprised it's that cold to be honest, thought the sun would warm it up nicely today but at least we sort of had our 3rd sunny day in a row , tommorrow has permission to be rubbish although the possible heavy rain tommorrow could at least be dramatic, sunday and monday look like a drizzlefest sadly.

And no sky likely get their data from somewhere and the weather forecasters just read the data off a map.

[lottiekent]

It never really got that sunny here and was fairly misty at times so I guess that helped suppress the temp. Down to 2.6c now

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

hear we go again :lol:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

low pressure to our south east

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

low pressure vanishes

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentraleGFSforecast.htm

block holds stronger in these charts

gfs picking up on something

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png :huh:

just a further note

i looked at the jet stream charts last night

which were not good however tonight the jet stream

charts show it weakening and in a much better position

i think they should put a government health warning

on the weather charts. it should say warning these charts

are addictive and can ruin your sanity :lol:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=315&y=150

Edited February 18, 2011 by john pike

[yamkin]

GFS 18Z is :wub: :wub: :cold:

Just scroll through from 6h onwards http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

To ramp it up, here are some charts :wub:

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

these look different

the gfs model is not a cold outlier

winter is far from over

(i think)

Edited February 18, 2011 by john pike

[snowbob]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

these look different

Bad or good jp

[john pike]

hi bob

the ensembles over the last few days have

shown nearly all members showing above average

temperatures

now tonight the ensembles on the 18z show at

least 8 members below average

these are a huge flip

tomorrows charts are going to be very interesting

will make the board come alive or make us want

to call gfs a few friendly names

i cannot say i was confident on the fax charts

so i will wait until tomorrow to comment on them

new trend or pub run

we will see tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[john pike]

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp_c.html#picture

was showing very warm