London & South East England - The Yamkin Ramper Thread

[95 Degrees]

Omg the model thread has exploded with excitement. Can the south east crew start ramping and celebrating yet. Or is it too soon please someone with better knowledge tell me the ECM could veryfy lol

it'll chop and change from coldish and milder throughout more runs, hopefully by the week-end we will seeing a good scandi high pattern forming towards us and if the models stick with this assumption then we could start bigging a good possible cold spell up! it may not happen though

[john pike]

the charts have gone mad tonight

lets hope gfs starts to come on board

i think if good charts are showing we should ramp

as this is only for fun and thats what makes the

forum what it is

long way out but wow

i will update later

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

channel low

i reckon yamkin might comment a little tonight

[Rob]

Fantastic looking charts on the ECM tonight, lets hope the GFS 18z decides to jump on board

[Swave Snow]

It is going to snow big time I tell you all now

Edited February 10, 2011 by Swave Snow

[lewis028]

Well a brilliant run from the ECM, let's hope tonights GFS follows suite, fascinating stuff in the model thread, Mr Murr post is an interesting read with his summery of tonights run so far

[yamkin]

the charts have gone mad tonight

lets hope gfs starts to come on board

i think if good charts are showing we should ramp

as this is only for fun and thats what makes the

forum what it is

long way out but wow

i will update later

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

channel low

i reckon yamkin might comment a little tonight

I'll start ramping a little now :wub:

Fantastic looking charts on the ECM tonight, lets hope the GFS 18z decides to jump on board

I'll say this, 'GFS 18Z for two days now has been faulty due to data errors' This is the reason why the NOAA were not at all pleased with GFS.

Edited February 10, 2011 by yamkin

[Jason T]

I'll start ramping a little now :wub:

I'll say this, 'GFS 18Z for two days now has been faulty due to data errors' This is the reason why the NOAA were not at all please with GFS.

You a happy YAMKIN, I will be stunned if this next cold spell does not pull off i believe its a green light.

[Jayces]

Okay I admit I fel a bit sheepish now that the stunning ECM charts have appeared BUT, it's one run, it's 10 days away but it has re appeared after dissapearing and one bit of advice that has been bandied about is look for trends a week to 2 weeks away not charts and tonight the trend does seem to be turning colder.

I think the general concensus of what is reliable time frame for what we are all hoping for is +72 so if next Thursday / Friday it is still showing cold for the weekend then we can genuinly start cheering for some real snow, not this fake snow we keep being promised that dissapears at the last minute....

[yamkin]

GFS 18Z must be binned yet again. GFS has data issues with the 18Z output. The GFS frames have been to blame here. Expect GFS to fall into line sometime tomorrow.

[gottolovethisweather]

OT but I love it. You've been framed, where's Beadle, is he about?

Personally I think the 18z was a typical pub run and the louts will soon be tucked up in bed ready for a cool 0z etc.

The cold is acoming.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

PS! I best go back to my CSE thread.

Edited February 10, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

gfs

to this

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

fax chart at 96

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

fax chart at 120

for whatever reason it seems there is no update yet

on the 120 fax and i feel that will give a clearer picture

for what its worth i still think the gfs is overcooking the

atlantic and will not let the low go south

if gfs is right all respect to it as virtually all the other

main players are showing much colder solutions

i will update later if the fax updates

i will guess the gfs will show colder runs either 00 or 06 runs friday

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

click on 120

there goes the low south

much better

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=1&archive=0

good night all

let the rollercoaster begin again tomorrow

[snowydayz]

I will be here for the ride JP, charts are all over the place at the moment.

I will save my ramping for the morning

Night all

Snowy

[Jayces]

Well John, rollercoaster has indeed begun again with the ECM backtracking a bit and the general trend from all the models is colder maybe but not the dream run we had from the ECM yesterday.

This is going to go back and forth for a while yet, as I said yesterday, we have another week in reality before we have a definite solution I think.

[Paul Sherman]

Message for Yamkin and John Pike

Q. When are we expecting this Cold and Snow to begin, my kids are asking and I need to give them an answer, they are just not happy with 2 Doses of Snow this winter, will the Cold co-incide with the Schools Half Term which starts 19th February ??

In Fact I am starting to look like a Chump as I told them 3 weeks ago to expect Snow at the end of January then told them to expect Snow from the 11th, Please tell me the Half Term will produce or I will be 3/3 for failures

[Marie]

I love cold and snow and would do anything for it to come back,but if i had a choice between this horrible dull rainy days that we are currently getting and mild and dry i would def go for the dry and mild.This weather is so depressing at the moment.I wish the models would make up there mind lol as they are starting to give me motion sickness all this flip flopping around

Message for Yamkin and John Pike

Q. When are we expecting this Cold and Snow to begin, my kids are asking and I need to give them an answer, they are just not happy with 2 Doses of Snow this winter, will the Cold co-incide with the Schools Half Term which starts 19th February ??

In Fact I am starting to look like a Chump as I told them 3 weeks ago to expect Snow at the end of January then told them to expect Snow from the 11th, Please tell me the Half Term will produce or I will be 3/3 for failures

I will second that ,my kids are starting to think that there mummy is a liar lol

[Blake7]

Looks to me like the chance of snow in the SE is slowly slipping away for next week ? any takers ?

[classylady]

Message for Yamkin and John Pike

Q. When are we expecting this Cold and Snow to begin, my kids are asking and I need to give them an answer, they are just not happy with 2 Doses of Snow this winter, will the Cold co-incide with the Schools Half Term which starts 19th February ??

In Fact I am starting to look like a Chump as I told them 3 weeks ago to expect Snow at the end of January then told them to expect Snow from the 11th, Please tell me the Half Term will produce or I will be 3/3 for failures

The cold and snow will be back by half term which will be just typical as I am going to Levi in Lapland for the week!!

[Southender]

Winter could well be over looking at today's charts.

Super start. But complete rubbish for the rest of it. Same as last winter really. Such a shame.

Oh well, roll on next winter.

Edited February 11, 2011 by Shrimper

[Marie]

Well reading the model thread they are now saying winter is over thats our lot for this year . Could things change again on the next run??? or is it really to late now and we have to come to terms with Milder weather?

[yamkin]

The Atlantic lows are really giving the models a hard time at the moment. What I find interesting is that the models are showing the very cold in the East. I believe the models will have a much clearer indication on the Atlantic lows over the weekend. The lows will not be as amplified. The NOAA will indicate later about the latest model runs not being up to par.

[msx999]

I'd say (from a very basic knowledge) that any lying snow would melt a lot quicker from march onwards. We need a snowfall in the next 2 weeks ideally, and it looks like nothing will get here till next weekend at the earliest.

Im going to be a little bit greedy and say if it isn't going to be cold enough to snow, then bring on an early spring...

[john pike]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

if anyone can make sense of these their a better

person than me

i will comment later when i see the updated 120

fax chart

the gfs run looks out of kilter with all the other ensembles

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.29554655870445&lon=0.09433962264151319

the charts do look bad at present but they are only charts

so lets wait and see what later brings

glad i do not have to predict weather for a

living as i would not have a clue what to say about next week

[yamkin]

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

if anyone can make sense of these their a better

person than me

i will comment later when i see the updated 120

fax chart

the gfs run looks out of kilter with all the other ensembles

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.29554655870445&lon=0.09433962264151319

the charts do look bad at present but they are only charts

so lets wait and see what later brings

glad i do not have to predict weather for a

living as i would not have a clue what to say about next week

JP, What has happened here is that the models have gone into default due to the confusion of the lows out in the Atlantic. Over the weekend I firmly believe the models are going to balance out the lows and let's see how they bring the very cold air to the UK

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

massive change from last night low heads towards us now

instead of going south giving westerly winds but cold

with 528 dam over us

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.37651821862349&lon=-0.18867924528301927

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rngp1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rgem1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif

all these charts are at 120 and trying to predict next week is

still a nightmare i cannot remember a time viewing charts

and trying to predict within a few days has been so hard

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

big scatter 18th and 23rd

who wants to bet these are totally different on saturday

then sunday etc

i will give the boards a break for the weekend as i

like my sanity

Edited February 12, 2011 by john pike