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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

The GFS 06z run has downgraded it a bit and put it just a bit further south. The GFS is starting to feel more confident now when and where it's going to be but how windy is still looking unknown.

06z.

The Met Office have released a early weather warning for Monday and Tuesday.

For the area's below,

Yeah, it looks as if it will be fairly windy for your area during tonight and into tomorrow as well. What sort of gusts are you expecting to see?

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Yeah, it looks as if it will be fairly windy for your area during tonight and into tomorrow as well. What sort of gusts are you expecting to see?

For tonight gusts 45mph to 50mph and on Saturday 50mph to 55mph.

The 12z continues to downgrade the stormy weather. I will update later this evening once the other models have done their 12z runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Looks like the GFS 12z is on its own at the moment. The 12z UKMO is going for stormy weather with a 990mb low and ECM shows the worst one with a 980mb low. So it will be interesting to see what the GFS 18z thinks will it agree with the other two or disagree.

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

Looks like the GFS 12z is on its own at the moment. The 12z UKMO is going for stormy weather with a 990mb low and ECM shows the worst one with a 980mb low. So it will be interesting to see what the GFS 18z thinks will it agree with the other two or disagree.

It's looking quite severe on this morning's GFS 00z, Sean: post-5487-0-76806800-1305959964_thumb.pn

There are some very tight isobars there. Once again, the ECM is showing pressure falling to around 980mb, and the UKMO gets down to around 985mb at one point.

just when Im flying home on Monday night!

Oh dear, that's not good. Stay safe mate :)

Edit:

Hold on to your hats guys!

post-5487-0-96655200-1305961360_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Yeah looking bad now on the GFS and all the models pretty much are starting to agree but I feel things may change a bit still.

06z run.

Met Office have released a new warning.

A period of exceptionally windy weather is expected to cross the northern half of the country during Monday and early Tuesday. Wind gusts of 60 mph are expected widely with gusts of 70 mph probable across parts of N England, N Ireland and Scotland. Some very exposed areas may see gusts as high as 80 mph. Winds will start to ease from the western by evening.
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Looking extremely windy for the time of year come monday, Meto issued amber warning for Scotland, the far North of England and N Ireland. 60-70mph gusts with 80mph in very exposed areas a possibility.

People need to take heed as this could cause severe problems, all the trees are in full leaf now and the force of the the progged wind speeds will put massive pressure on them.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

Yeah looking bad now on the GFS and all the models pretty much are starting to agree but I feel things may change a bit still.

06z run.

Met Office have released a new warning.

Looking extremely windy for the time of year come monday, Meto issued amber warning for Scotland, the far North of England and N Ireland. 60-70mph gusts with 80mph in very exposed areas a possibility.

People need to take heed as this could cause severe problems, all the trees are in full leaf now and the force of the the progged wind speeds will put massive pressure on them.

Thanks for the update guys, it's much appreciated :D

As you both say, It's looking as though the pressure will fall to around the 985mb mark which will lead to some severe gales in places. Not a good situation at this time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

WOW amber alert TV flashing on and off sirens blaring away. Models better not back track away I've know massive downgrades at 48 hours away.

I'm too far south to be effected that much unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Looking forward to Monday here! :D

06z GFS is forecasting the low to go from 1004mb to 980mb in 24 hours, which is explosive cyclogenesis! :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I think that following the sat infra red piccs along with the Exeter actual positions will be the best way to see how its progressing.

To me their prebar (forecast) chart for 12z Monday looks about the right area and depth this far out.

They will be the ones to follow in my opinion.

For those of a technical bent then watching how the jet moves/develops, will also be a fair idea of what to expect the depth and position of the surface low to be come Monday.

check the wind outputs once the NAE is available and compare to what the GFS/Extra/NMM models are showing for comparison.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

I think that following the sat infra red piccs along with the Exeter actual positions will be the best way to see how its progressing.

To me their prebar (forecast) chart for 12z Monday looks about the right area and depth this far out.

They will be the ones to follow in my opinion.

For those of a technical bent then watching how the jet moves/develops, will also be a fair idea of what to expect the depth and position of the surface low to be come Monday.

check the wind outputs once the NAE is available and compare to what the GFS/Extra/NMM models are showing for comparison.

Many thanks for that John :)

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Still looking interesting on the 12 oz if it still there tomorrow morning it can't surely downgrade can it???

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Yep the 12z GFS is still showing extreme winds so does the 12z UKMO and ECM. However if you look closely the UKMO and ECM both have the low just a bit further South moving over Southern Scotland and Northern England meanwhile the GFS has everything a bit further north. I would go with what the UKMO and ECM are saying since they both agree on it. Looking at the new invent map on the Met Office site some parts in Southern Scotland are getting 70mph to 88mph gusts. GFS for my area has 64mph to 75mph gusts meanwhile Met Office say only 27mph to 54mph this shows it is moving the worst of it just a bit further south.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Some differences with the postitioning of the storm on monday, UKMO and ECM more or less the same but the GFS has it further north.

Pretty severe weather on the way and many will get a shock if they have no idea of whats coming, this time tomorrow I think we will have a good idea of the track and which areas will come off worse from damage, 70-80mph gusts are bad by winter storm standards let alone at this time of year with all the trees in leaf. Stay safe if your in the zone.

post-9615-0-44843000-1306007164_thumb.gi

post-9615-0-62759500-1306007175_thumb.pn

post-9615-0-71433200-1306007185_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

GFS 18z rolling out, looking like a slight upgrade with slightly tighter isobars and depth from the 12z and a hint of it being further south in line with UKMO & ECM

Edited by james12
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

GFS 18z rolling out, looking like a slight upgrade with slightly tighter isobars and depth from the 12z and a hint of it being further south in line with UKMO & ECM

Yeah the 18z starts to agree moving it further South. The Western Isles were meant to get the full brunt of this which may not be to much of a big deal since we don't have any tree's but this storm looks to hit Southern Scotland many trees will be uprooted and some damage will occur. At the moment the position and strength of this storm may change but I can't see it changing too much now.

Comparing 12z with the 18z.

12z Further North.

18z A bit More South agreeing with UKMO and ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Not to be underestimated by any means, this means business. If it continues to be progged at this intensity until Monday when this storm arrives it will no doubt make the headlines with reports of damage and injury (which I sincerely hope is not the case) but alot of the public will be out and going about there business hence why the warnings have been issued early.

I have experienced 50mph+ gusts which have damaged trees in full leaf.

The 18z NAE also has this on a more southerly track, with 60mph mean wind speeds near the centre so I would say 80-90mph gusts are not out of the question.

It will be windy tomorrow with 40-50mph gusts predicted for my area and 68mph on Monday, this is on the meto local forecasts.

Edited by james12
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Could someone create a thread on the Northern storm? this is very potent as we know and it would be interesting to take a more detailed look at this, maybe a thread is set to appear(planned) to come on soon, but if not then could we have one on it , thanks :)

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

here is all three main models, that all agree with the path and intensity of this storm

post-11361-0-57912900-1306032358_thumb.g

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire

Looks very intense on the FAX charts

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=8e23fc3eba5159859af38b658b7b185f

Th high resolution NMM has the low down to 984mb at the 36hr mark.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Still looking very nasty on the 00z runs, Meto have increased the winds on my location forecast with gusts progged up to 75mph!!

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