Australian Weather

[Styx]

Last 6 months - Temperature

Last 6 months - Rainfall

Officially cooler and wetter than average overall.

Edited July 6, 2012 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

Hey all ,

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall):

Jul 5th - 10.6ºC/17.7ºC - 3.0mm

Jul 6th - 9.5ºC/17.3ºC - 1.8mm

Jul 7th - 9.3ºC/18.4ºC - Nil

Jul 8th - 11.0ºC/19.2ºC - Nil

Jul 9th - 11.0ºC/20.2ºC - 6.8mm

Jul 10th - 12.2ºC/19.2ºC - 1.0mm

Jul 11th - 13.7ºC/21.2ºC - 1.8mm

Past week:

It become more mild as the week progressed, as winds turned E'ly, then N/NE'ly. These moist winds directed by a high pressure system over the Tasman have given a notable increase in humidity. The moist winds also fed a trough over the central eastern inland, bringing the heaviest rainfall in July for sometime in areas (See: http://www.weatherch...ars-100712.aspx and http://www.weatherch...rds-tumble.aspx). There's also been a fair amount of storm activity (for mid-winter) over the past couple of days across inland parts of QLD, NSW and SA. Just a few showers here over the past couple of days. The trough responsible for the rain across the east moved out to sea yesterday, a new trough has flown in from the west and is over SA at present and moving eastwards.

The upcoming week (Jul 12th to Jul 18th):

There was steady rain through the morning here (18.2mm when I checked at lunch), but has eased off with mostly cloudy skies at the moment. There could be the odd spot of rain this evening and overnight, though a renewed burst of rain is expected as the trough momentarily stalls over northern NSW tomorrow. There is also the slight possibility of thundery rain tomorrow afternoon.

Depending on the amount of lingering cloudcover, it is possible that it could be quite a warm winter's day on Saturday (23ºC is not out of the question), with NW'ly winds funnelled from the interior between the trough to the north and the approaching cold front. The cold front should move through early Sunday morning and bring a drier, cooler airmass into the region.

A high pressure system is expected to be catapulted eastwards across Australia and will be responsible for bringing fine weather (though cool nights) here through Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

A trough is expected to develop across central eastern Australia on Tuesday. The high pressure system, now near New Zealand, should direct moist E/NE'ly winds from the Coral Sea into the trough. The trough will move further eastwards on Wednesday with the possibility of light to steady rain developing here that day. A cold front is expected to move into western NSW later on Wednesday.

Edited July 12, 2012 by NthNSW

[Styx]

Story of the Tasmanian winter so far is the lack of snow cover in the highlands. A low level snow event happens every year almost without fail, but it appears this year the wait will be longer.

Mt Wellington, Hobart same week last year. The snow remained on the summit for several weeks.

[NorthNSW]

Starting to notice the days are getting slightly longer again, and the sunlight is just that little bit stronger. The golden wattles are flowering, and I notice my neighbour's weeping bottlebrushes are beginning to flower too (about a month early for the bottlebrushes I must say). Spring is edging closer.

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall):

Jul 12th - 16.3ºC/19.0ºC - 20.0mm

Jul 13th - 16.0ºC/20.5ºC - 5.2mm

Jul 14th - 15.0ºC/17.0ºC - 0.2mm

Jul 15th - 14.0ºC/20.0ºC - Nil

Jul 16th - 10.0ºC/18.2ºC - Nil

Jul 17th - 12.2ºC/20.9ºC - Nil

Jul 18th - 12.5ºC/20.0ºC - 0.2mm

Past week:

In general, the days were mild and the nights were mild to warm. Northerly winds and high humidity brought unseasonably warm nights for July on the 12th, 13th & 14th. Persistent cloudcover prevented what would have otherwise been a warm day on the 14th (centres further up the coast recorded temps in the mid 20s). Most of the rain on the 12th fell during the morning, with just a bit of light rain at times after that continuing into the 13th/14th. The 15/16/17th were all nice sunny days. A weak trough moved through yesterday bringing a little light rain in the afternoon, moving out to sea overnight.

The upcoming week (Jul 19th to Jul 25th):

Today has been a sunny, though breezy day. Tonight, a high will start directing a southerly flow of showers onto the New South Wales coast, though most of the showers should occur along the coast south of here between Newcastle and Port Macquarie. The high is expected to remain slow-moving, and the onshore flow should persist until around Tuesday. Expecting the odd light shower here over the next few days, but I would be surprised if we accumulated more than 10mm this week. Wednesday should be a fine, mostly sunny day.

Edited July 19, 2012 by NthNSW

[Styx]

The poor state of snow cover at Tasmania's ski fields.

Mt Mawson in the south ( 1300m ) and Ben Lomond ( 1600m ) in the north east.

[Kiwi]

The poor state of snow cover at Tasmania's ski fields.

Mt Mawson in the south ( 1300m ) and Ben Lomond ( 1600m ) in the north east.

That's awful!

Also problems in NZ with snow cover in both North and South Island resorts.

I took this from the Otago Daily Times

"Queenstown is a convenience for Australians, but ... there are a lot of full flights leaving Australia for America. It is easy for them to say, 'Kids there's no snow in New Zealand, let's go to Disneyland instead'."

Mr Hartshorne said the lack of snow meant only those who had prebooked their holidays would arrive in Queenstown this winter.

[NorthNSW]

Hi all,

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall):

Jul 19th - 12.0ºC/18.4ºC - 0.4mm

Jul 20th - 9.8ºC/17.5ºC - 0.4mm

Jul 21st - 10.5ºC/19.0ºC - 0.8mm

Jul 22nd - 10.0ºC/16.7ºC - 8.2mm

Jul 23rd - 10.0ºC/16.2ºC - 5.4mm

Jul 24th - 10.4ºC/19.5ºC - Nil

Jul 25th - 11.7ºC/20.3ºC - Nil

Past week:

An onshore airsteam delivered the odd shower through the week, mainly on the 22nd and 23rd. It was a cool and breezy week. The 24th and 25th were both fine, mild mostly sunny days.

I'll post about the upcoming week later tonight or tomorrow. A thunderstorm has developed nearby, so I'm quite distracted at the moment.

[NorthNSW]

Sorry about that. Here's what I was distracted by, lol.

A nice, mid-winter thunderstorm that came over the house late this afternoon shortly after 4:30pm.

Upcoming week (Jul 26th to Aug 1st):

Today (26th), an approaching surface trough and the intrusion of colder mid/upper temps caused thunderstorms to form about the region (instability was held back though by fairly dry air in the lower levels). As you can see a thunderstorm rolled through here this afternoon bringing some lightning/thunder, a period of steady to moderate rain (3.4mm), and a bit of strong wind (estimated 50km/h gust).

Even though the surface trough is expected to move out to sea overnight and be a couple hundred kilometres offshore. An associated upper level trough lagging behind and even colder mid/upper temps (-27ºC @ 500mb!) means there is the slight chance of a shower/storm tomorrow (the main inhibitor to any activity will be a lack of lower level moisture, even drier than today).

A ridge of high pressure should bring fine weather on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. A light shower or two could possibly be directed onto the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds turn southerly.

[NorthNSW]

Forgot to post a summary of weather you'd expect here in August:

August is usually the warmest month of winter. The days tend to be generally mild, still the occasional cool day though. The nights continue to be cool, and do tend cold at times. Maximum temperatures average 19.8ºC, and minimum temps average 11.7ºC. For August, the record high max is 31.5ºC (24/08/2009) and the record low min is 4.0ºC (25/08/1997). The record low min for August is also the all-time record low min for any month. It varies from year to year, but August can be more spring-like than winter-like some years.

August is one the drier months (3rd driest month of the year on average), and is prone to dry spells and is probably the month with the most variability in rainfall from year to year. It is one of three months that have recorded 0mm in the past. The August rainfall average is 80.4mm. Wintry cold fronts occasionally pay a visit during the month, and high pressure systems over the continent can bring extended periods of fine weather.

While the "storm season" doesn't begin until September, there can be a couple of thundery days during August. When a storm does occur in August, they are usually fairly benign at this time of year with generally a couple of rumbles and some moderate rain (although last year a severe storm hit on Tuesday August 30th: http://www.macleayar...on/2278740.aspx). It would be a bit unusual to not have a thunderstorm pass over during the month, and very unusual to not hear thunder at all during the month.

[NorthNSW]

Perth has recorded its driest July on record by some margin, just 34.6mm fell during the month (the July average is 169.6mm). The previous driest July on record was back in 1876 when 61.5mm was recorded. The month was also quite cold there too.

Perth has a mediterranean climate, normally receiving the vast majority of its rainfall during the wintry months.

Mandurah soaked as rain tumbles after record dry, cold July

THE heavens opened over Perth, Mandurah and parts of the South West early today after the driest and one of the coldest Julys in recorded history.

Rain started falling just on 7am in Perth and a little earlier in southern suburbs as a threatening rain-band which had been hovering off the coast began to move inland. By early afternoon Perth Airport had recorded 18mm, Perth 15mm, Swanbourne 11mm, Rottnest 10mm, Garden Island 9mm and Dwellingup, 97km south of the city, had 15mm. Bickley in the Hills got 17mm and Karnet 14mm. Mandurah had a deluge with 26.4mm falling to 9am, most of that coming n three hours from 4am onwards. By early afternoon the town had nearly 40mm in the gauge. There were also decent falls across the South West with Harvey 17mm, Cape Leeuwin 13mm and 8mm at Bunbury to noon. In the Central Wheatbelt, Badgingarra, 210km north-east of Perth, received 17mm.

Up until this morning Perth has seen just 27.8mm of rain, a staggering 141mm short of the July monthly average. Today's rain brings the July total to 34.6mm. Any rain which is recorded before 9am goes on to the July total, but rain after 9am will be recorded as August 1 rainfall. The average for the month is 169.6mm. The previous lowest rainfall in Perth in July was 61.5mm in 1876.

But the good news is Perth and the South West is set for a week of wet, showery weather, with some rain forecast each day till at least next Monday. Bureau of Meteorology records show that in the past two weeks a measly 0.4mm of rain has fallen in Perth.

The Bureau's forecast for the South West reads: "On Tuesday the cold front combined with a mid level cloud band will move through the South West land division and into the adjacent Gascoyne and adjacent Goldfields, lying southwest of Geraldton to Bremer Bay during the morning, and near Shark Bay to Esperance in the evening. "Areas of rain and scattered showers are expected with the passage of the cold front and cloud band with isolated showers maintained in its wake, tending scattered about southern coastal districts. "Isolated thunderstorms are also possible about the Southwest District in the morning, contracting into the western south Coastal district in the afternoon.''

Avon Descent Organisers and desperate wheatfarmers are hoping the cold front dumps some decent falls across the agricultural areas and Avon Valley catchment for this weekend's white water classic, with competitors facing a tough slog through low water levels if heavy rain doesn't arrive. BOM spokesman Neil Bennett said a number towns in WA including Northam and Manjimup were also on track to record their driest July ever.

Mr Bennett said persistent high pressure systems hovering near Perth were to blame for the record low rainfall this month. “Usually the high pressure systems are a little bit more to the north near Geraldton and that allows the cold fronts to sweep through the South West and into Perth,†Mr Bennett said. “But Perth has hardly seen any frontal activity for the month.â€

Mr Bennett said Perth was also set to notch up its greatest number of cold nights in 20 years for the month of July. There were 18 cold nights, beating the previous record of 16 cold nights which occurred in July of 1998, 2001 and 2010. The BOM defines a “cold†night when the minimum drops below 5C.

So far this year Perth has had 329.4mm of rain, the fourth driest year since 1876.

Source: http://www.perthnow....-1226439203417

[Styx]

It grumbles me when journalists find it difficult to read media releases from the weather bureau or whatever source they choose to use, and go the easy way by writing up their own conclusions from standout phrases.

No where near one of the coldest Julys in Perth!

Average minimum of 5.3 was the lowest on record ( 1981-10 average 8.1 ) but the average maximum of 19.3 ( 1981-10 average 18.1 ) was amongst one of the highest on record! Mean someway off from being the lowest.

Certainly been dry though, in many places across Australia, including Tasmania.

Edited August 1, 2012 by Styx

[Methuselah]

Same thing happens here, Styx!

[Styx]

July - Rainfall

July - Temperature

-0.45 cooler than the 1961-90 average, close to the June figure.

-17% rainfall deficiency, compared to close to average in June.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Styx

[Styx]

That's awful!

Also problems in NZ with snow cover in both North and South Island resorts.

I took this from the Otago Daily Times

"Queenstown is a convenience for Australians, but ... there are a lot of full flights leaving Australia for America. It is easy for them to say, 'Kids there's no snow in New Zealand, let's go to Disneyland instead'."

Mr Hartshorne said the lack of snow meant only those who had prebooked their holidays would arrive in Queenstown this winter.

Has New Zealand not had some brilliant snow seasons in recent years, with some of the most powerful cold outbreaks? It has been such a long time since Tasmania has ground to a halt in a whiteout.

Having said that, Tassie's small snowfields don't attract many interstate visitors, they are more a recreational playground for the locals.

I'm still hopeful for a change in the weather here, this predominantally settled spell has got to end soon!

Edited August 2, 2012 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall):

Jul 26th - 12.0ºC/19.5ºC - 3.4mm

Jul 27th - 12.8ºC/20.3ºC - Nil

Jul 28th - 11.3ºC/18.5ºC - Nil

Jul 29th - 10.8ºC/19.6ºC - Nil

Jul 30th - 10.3ºC/17.8ºC - Nil

Jul 31st - 9.4ºC/18.0ºC - Nil

Aug 1st - 9.8ºC/18.5ºC - Nil

Past week:

It was a cool to mild week here, with some cold nights later in the week. A thunderstorm passed over during the late afternoon on the 26th. A few storms developed near the local area again on the 27th, but remained to the north of here. The rest of the week was fairly sunny, most days looked pretty much like this (taken from Little Bay at South West Rocks on July 31st):

The upcoming week (Aug 2nd to Aug 8th):

Today has been a sunny and mild day, after a cold morning (very dry air today, with relative humidity falling to 20-30% across northern parts of the region this afternoon). An upper level trough will generate some patchy high cloud here tomorrow, but the airmass will be dry so no rainfall is expected at all. A high pressure system will see dry and sunny conditions here for the rest of the week. Balmy days are expected this week, though there should be some cool to cold nights. Early indications are that max temps could rise into the mid 20s by this time next week.

~~~~~~

Last night on the Northern Tablelands, there was a localised area of snow that settled on the higher parts of the range around Guyra (on the ranges inland of here, about 140-150kms away, as the crow flies). A resident near Guyra took a photo of the snow this morning: http://users.tpg.com.au/limnodyn/. The Northern Daily Leader provides a fairly concise summary (Source: http://www.northernd...highway/?cs=157):

Trucks jack-knife in icy conditions on New England Highway - By Haley Sheridan Aug. 2, 2012, 9:30 a.m.

THE New England Highway is closed between Armidale and Guyra after two trucks reportedly jack-knifed on the ice covered road surface. Police and Roads and Maritime Services crews have been on scene since the early hours of this morning to divert traffic after snow fell in the area last night. An RMS spokesperson said people who need to travel between Armidale and Glen Innes will be diverted along Thunderbolts Way and the Gwydir Highway via Inverell. Armidale Police Station supervisor Sergeant Chris Pieterse said trucks were unable to pass through the area this morning and the highway wouldn't be reopened until the ice had thawed. He said there were reports as many as two trucks had jack-knifed on the highway after losing traction on the slippery road, but the details of the incidents weren't made available.

"It snowed last night and got colder and about two inches of it turned into ice," Sergeant Pieterse said. "It made the road impassable and subsequently the RTA has made detours except for the trucks which will be stopped for a while."

Sergeant Pieterse urged motorists to "be mindful" of black ice on local roads and to travel with caution.

Cold last night across much of the New South Wales, with a couple of locations in the state's Central West experiencing their coldest August night in 12 years (http://www.smh.com.a...0802-23guy.html).

Our exposed coastal location meant we were pretty much the "warmest" location in the state last night with a minimum of 9.5ºC. For the first time here this winter, we've had three nights in a row of sub 10ºC minimums.

[NorthNSW]

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall):

Aug 2nd - 9.5ºC/18.9ºC - Nil

Aug 3rd - 11.0ºC/20.0ºC - Nil

Aug 4th - 12.7ºC/21.6ºC - Nil

Aug 5th - 13.3ºC/22.5ºC - Nil

Aug 6th - 14.8ºC/22.2ºC - Nil

Aug 7th - 8.9ºC/18.0ºC - Nil

Aug 8th - 11.6ºC/20.3ºC - Nil

Past week:

It was sunny and dry all week, thanks to a persistent area of high pressure. Some warm winter days this week, with 22.5ºC on the 5th being our warmest day since May 24th. A couple of cold nights though, including our coldest night of the year so far (8.9ºC).

The upcoming week (Aug 9th to Aug 15th):

Today is a cloudy but mild day, with mid to high cloud associated with a frontal cloudband. A cold front should move through shortly, with the chance of a shower this evening. Snow is expected to fall down to 600m on southern ranges of New South Wales this evening and possibly down to 800m on the central ranges.

A low over the southern Tasman Sea and a high pressure system near Adelaide will cause a tight pressure gradient along the NSW coast over the next couple of days, with damaging surf and some strong winds expected. Cooler temps are expected over the next few days. The S/SE'ly airstream will mean a shower or two is possible from tomorrow night until Tuesday (at this stage, most of the showers look like remaining south of here). Fine weather is expected on Wednesday and warm temps could make a return as winds turn N/NW'ly.

Edited August 9, 2012 by NorthNSW

[NorthNSW]

A Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds (>90km/h) is current for the local region. There was a wind gust of 87km/h at nearby Kempsey a few hours ago.

Wild winds hit Sydney

Boats were blown on shore at Little Manly Beach, and roofs were ripped off and planes at Sydney airport were delayed as Sydney was hit by strong winds today. The winds reached as high as 106km/h on Sydney Harbour, the strongest gusts in at least six years. And they reached 111km/h at the highly exposed station of Wattamolla in the Royal National Park.

All Sydney ferry services between Manly and Circular Quay had been suspended because of large swells, the Transport Management Centre said. A Sydney airport representative said gusts of up to 75km/h were "causing delays of up to 60 minutes at the domestic terminal". International flights were not affected.

A State Emergency Service representative said there were reports that a roof had been blown off St Paul's Catholic school at Manly and reader Brian Welch spotted a roof flying off a building in North Sydney. A fallen tree also crushed an unoccupied car in Ingleburn. There had not been any reports of injuries.

Sydney and Wollongong, in the Illawarra region of NSW, were the worst hit. The electricity network Ausgrid electricity said winds had left Sydney homes and businesses without power. Ausgrid representative Kylie Yates said emergency crews were scrambling to restore power. "As soon as we restore power in one area we seem to lose power in another," she told Macquarie Radio. Branches falling on powerlines were the main problem. She said 7000 homes had lost power.

Cronulla, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, North Curl Curl, Belrose, Riverwood and Asquith had been affected by power losses, she said. Fire & Rescue NSW crews throughout the Greater Metropolitan Area have responded to more than 500 calls for help today as high winds brought down trees, roofs and powerlines and caused major damage to buildings throughout the region. The winds are drawing a bitterly cold air mass over the state and cold winds are making the city feel close to freezing.

Sydney's temperature fell below 8 degrees this morning, but the relentless winds have made it feel closer to 3 degrees.

"Wind chill will have the tendency to drag the temperature down," Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Dmitriy Danchuk said this morning. "For Sydney for today we're expecting temperatures within the 13 to 16 degrees range, but in the middle of the day I wouldn't be surprised if it feels like temperatures slightly above zero."

The New South Wales ski resorts have had widespread falls of 20-40 centimetres of snow during the past 48 hours, with Perisher gaining more than 50 centimetres. The winds are forecast to continue over the weekend, with isolated showers forecast for Sydney tomorrow and Sunday.

The Transport Management Centre has passengers to allow extra time when travelling on public transport this afternoon due to disruptions because of the strong winds. Trains on the Eastern Suburbs & Illawarra Line are up to 15 minutes late as debris is being blown on to the track between Wolli Creek and Arncliffe. Route 309, 391 and 392 buses are being diverted away from Bunnergong Road in Matraville as material has blown off a building. Sydney Ferries services are suspended between Manly and Circular Quay due to large swells at Manly Wharf. A shuttle bus service is operating instead. Fast ferry services are also still operating between Manly and Circular Quay.

Link: http://www.smh.com.a...0810-23ytw.html

Short video of wind ripping of part of a roof in Sydney:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NMwAqC2ROc

Snow also fell at lower elevations along the NSW ranges outside of the Snowy Mountains, mainly along the Central Tablelands.

Including Oberon:

http://www.blackheat...8-12-linski.jpg

Blackheath:

http://www.blackheat...snow9-8-12b.jpg

A short video of snow falling in Blackheath:

Last night was our coldest night of the year here, with a minimum of 8.3ºC.

Edited August 10, 2012 by NorthNSW

[AWD]

Snow in parts of Tasmania currently

[Styx]

Snow in parts of Tasmania currently

Defiently been an improvement this month compared to June and July in terms of lying snow in the highlands.

Still, the snowline is no where as low as it should be, currently around 1200m/4000ft.

The mainland states of Victoria and New South Wales fairing much better , but at a higher elevation.

[NorthNSW]

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall):

Aug 9th - 11.1ºC/20.0ºC - Nil

Aug 10th - 8.3ºC/17.0ºC - 13.8mm

Aug 11th - 6.5ºC/16.5ºC - 2.0mm

Aug 12th - 10.0ºC/17.0ºC - 0.2mm

Aug 13th - 10.5ºC/19.0ºC - Nil

Aug 14th - 10.5ºC/21.5ºC - Nil

Aug 15th - 13.4ºC/22.0ºC - Nil

Past week:

It was a mixed bag. Mild and cloudy, then became cold and very windy, and finished off mild to warm and sunny. Winds got up to around 90km/h during the afternoon/evening of the 10th. We lost power for around 3½ hours during what could be described as a 'winter storm'. We do not often get wild wintry weather this far north, though its a common occurrance down around Melbourne and Hobart. At best, this kind of weather in winter usually gets up to around Sydney/Newcastle, and then veers out into the Tasman Sea bound for New Zealand. The minimum of 6.5ºC was our coldest night of the year, and also the coldest night since July 2007.

Snow on the Barrington Tops (1300-1500m ASL), toward the south of the local district on top of the Great Dividing Range (courtesy of NBN News website):

The upcoming week (Aug 16th to Aug 22nd):

It should be a dry and generally sunny week here. Today was a warm, sunny day (preliminary and rounded-off figure from the 6hr to 3pm summary says we got to 24 degrees). Tomorrow should be a touch cooler, but still mild to warm. A cold front is expected to move through from the west tomorrow evening but no precipitation is expected here on the leeward side of the range. Snow is expected to fall along the ranges on tomorrow, though the latest forecast has backed off on the prospect of snow on the northern ranges. The cooler airmass behind the front should bring more seasonable temperatures though over the weekend, back down to around 19 degrees. A high will wander in from the west and keep skies clear after the cold front's passage. It will warm up gradually after the weekend, with temps potentially popping up into the mid 20s again by next Wednesday. A weak trough could possibly develop over eastern Australia on Wednesday, but it should remain dry.

Edited August 16, 2012 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

Tropical fish turning up in the temperate waters of Tasmania, as climate change alters Australia's east coast current

Television news report here:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-17/climate-change-sees-tropical-fish-head-south/4203830

...and a written summary here:

http://theconversation.edu.au/its-getting-hot-in-here-tasmanian-ocean-warms-to-detriment-of-species-1238

[NorthNSW]

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall):

Aug 16th - 16.3ºC/24.0ºC - Nil

Aug 17th - 12.5ºC/22.0ºC - Nil

Aug 18th - 11.0ºC/20.7ºC - Nil

Aug 19th - 11.2ºC/20.3ºC - Nil

Aug 20th - 11.7ºC/20.7ºC - Nil

Aug 21st - 13.1ºC/20.8ºC - Nil

Aug 22nd - 13.5ºC/22.2ºC - Nil

Past week:

A dry, balmy, and sunny week. A couple of cool nights though. The odd bit of wipsy high cloud about late in the week, but the days were still quite sunny. On the 22nd, an upper level trough passing through the region triggered a couple of weak storms up in the hills to the south, but it remained dry and sunny here along the coast. The past two days have been quite hazy, due to smoke from bushfires in the local area.

The upcoming week (Aug 23rd to Aug 29th):

It was balmy and sunny today, though quite hazy once again. Nine bushfires are currently burning out of control in the local area, ranging in size from 100 hectares to 800 hectares. Lightning active storms have formed ahead of a cold front in a line from Sydney NSW to Tambo QLD, about 1000kms long. The first widespread storm event since the winter solstice, and timely too, with the 'storm season' starting next week. There is the chance of a shower or thunderstorm here tonight. A cold front should move through tomorrow morning, leaving clear skies and dry air in its wake. The front is only expected to bring a small drop in temperature though. An area of high pressure will quickly move in from the west, with dry weather expected for the remainder of the week, and max temps remaining fairly nice (similar temps to this week). Nights should be cool to mild.

Edited August 23, 2012 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

20C in Hobart yesterday ( 6 above August average ), the first 20+ this side of the winter, and the earliest 20+ since 1985.

Date of the first 20+ this side of the year

Earliest... 2nd July 1985

Latest...9th November 1956

2000...13th September

2001...19th September

2002...14th September

2003...4th September

2004...26th August

2005...28th August

2006...31st August

2007...27th August

2008...11th September

2009...15th September

2010...3rd October

2011...24th August

Edited August 24, 2012 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

Definitely would have not liked to be in Hobart in 1956. That's amazing no 20ºC until early November!

20ºC days are quite common through all winter months here (there's never been a month where we haven't reached 20ºC since temp records began here in 1957), so it isn't a milestone temp here.

First 25ºC after July 1st here -

2000: August 28th

2001: September 9th

2002: August 12th

2003: September 6th

2004: July 5th

2005: September 29th

2006: October 5th

2007: August 12th

2008: September 20th

2009: August 23rd

2010: September 2nd

2011: September 14th

Since 1957 -

Earliest 25ºC: July 5th 2004

Latest 25ºC: October 26th 1969

First 30ºC after July 1st here -

2000: December 24th

2001: December 3rd

2002: September 28th

2003: September 22nd

2004: November 13th

2005: October 6th

2006: November 29th

2007: October 2nd

2008: November 22nd

2009: August 24th

2010: January 9th (2011)

2011: September 18th

Since 1957 -

Earliest 30ºC: August 24th 2009

Latest 30ºC: Not reached between 01/07/1985 and 30/06/1986. If you exclude that financial year, then the latest 30ºC reached was on January 20th 1999.

Edited August 24, 2012 by NorthNSW

[NorthNSW]

Subtropical ridge has been dominating us, with just 3 rain days in the past month. In the northeastern corner of the state, some places have not received rain all month, and Brisbane in southeast Queensland has not received any rain since July 20th.

The 'Storm Season' starts on September 1st. So here's a summary of the storm season in the local region:

The storm season runs from September to March. There is a tendency for spring storm activity to be better than summer storm activity (particularly in the past few years). The October to December period is usually the most stormy period. The past couple of summers have also been dominated by La Nina, which has produced very few storms during summer, though spring storms have remained good. Severe storms can occur in any of these months, though there's a tendency for them to occur in that Oct to Dec period. Very severe storms in the local area have been absent in past couple of years, and that could probably be attributed to La Nina. We are one of the stormiest areas outside of the tropics. Annual average thunderdays map for Australia (have marked my town's location as small red dot, it's between Sydney and Brisbane, near Coffs Harbour):

Locally, the storm season typically follows this pattern:

September - Generally an average month for storms. Severe storms can still occur, though you'd have to unlucky (or lucky, depending on your POV) to find yourself in the path of one. Moisture is often lacking, and this can ruin potential storm days (at this early stage, it appears this Sept could have moisture issues). The subtropical ridge can also be a problem bringing stable conditions, but it usually breaks down before the end of the month.

October - Usually a good month for storms. Some years, moisture can be a problem in the earlier half of the month. Potential for a severe storm is quite present in Oct. In Oct 1994, I was in a very severe storm at Kempsey (30kms away from here) that produced up to 9 centimetre hail (hail size confirmed by the Bureau). I was only young but it was a frightening experience.

November - The most reliable month for storms locally and probably the month where the threat of a severe storm is at its highest. Usually some of the best storms will occur during Nov, because everything tends to align: warm days, decent humidity, though still get the intrusion of cool sometimes cold mid/upper temps, and wind shear is still good.

December - Thunderstorms in December tend less frequent than November, but they have the potential to be just as severe. Warming upper level temps during the month tend to see a bit of a reduction in stormy days compared to November, and cold fronts become quite infrequent (which means less visits of cool mid/upper air and a reduction in the amount of potential 'triggers'). In Dec 1991, a very severe storm at nearby Kempsey produced up to 14 centimetre hail (confirmed by the Bureau). Footage from that particular storm (note: 14cm stone was recorded at Golf Course, and not in this video):

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOcjPiCn3C8

January - Thunderstorm activity usually decreases in January (focus of storm activity tends to move southwards down to southern NSW and Victoria). Cold fronts stop penetrating too far into the continent. So in January, instability in northern NSW is usually driven by troughs developing over eastern Australia, fed by moist winds from the tropics and the Coral Sea. Weak wind shear tends to dominate though, and as a result, most storms stay on the mountain ranges. Jan storms tend to be "air-mass thunderstorms", and so severe storms are not the threat they were in Oct-Nov-Dec. January storm activity in recent years has been particularly subdued.

February - Our warmest and most humid month. Shares a number of characteristics to January. A "renaissance" of storm activity has been known to occur in either Feb (as it did this year), or in March.

March - Shares a few similarities with Jan/Feb, though wind shear tends to improve and cold fronts / associated troughs can provide a good trigger/forcing. Upper level temps also cool down. A "renaissance" of storm activity can occur, but it rarely rivals Spring / early Summer activity.

Edited August 26, 2012 by NorthNSW