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1656295364_December3.thumb.png.df2fd1a800c0c721722854f1242b9d3d.png

It's a pretty cold start to summer! The mountain is snowcapped this morning ( to about 800m asl ) but it won't be around for long. The minimum was -3.2c on the summit and 7.7c in the city. Tonight, the snowline could go lower and more mountain snow is forecast on Thursday if there's enough precipitation around with the next pulse of cold air. December snow on the city mountain happens once every second December on average ( but usually just a single day ).  In 2006 the mountain was snowcapped on Christmas morning. In 1972, the snowline was half way down the mountain. Both those events were colder.

Edited by Styx

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33 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Perth scorcher

The Perth record for December is 44.2c in 2007 ( it doesn't mention that in the news video you put up )

2016541562_December4.thumb.png.99bc74e6527a54dc50c69b4021d50b09.png

Meantime in Tasmania it is icy. The mountain summit was -4.0c last night ( 1260m asl ) and the city minimum was 5.8c ( 6 below average ). The pinnacle road to the summit is closed due to ice and snow. The road is narrow and they don't want cars jackknifing or falling down ravines. The Tasmania record low for December ( and summer ) is -5.0c in 1969. 

Edited by Styx

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My thoughts are with everyone affected with the terrible bushfires. The drought in Australia is probably worse than the Californian one a few years back, with no end in sight. Summer is only just beginning too. Fingers crossed for some kind of miracle.

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OK this looks absolutlely epic in terms of anything that has ever been recorded before but as of this morning, BoM forecast extreme highs for next Thursday for towns/outposts with a weather station are 47c for the state of South Australia ( Dec record 49.1 in 1972 ), 46c in western New South Wales ( Dec record 48.9 in 1912 ), 46c in south-west Queensland ( Dec record 49.5 in 1972) and 45c in northern Victoria ( Dec record 46.6 in 1976 ). Lower extremes in the west. The 49.5c in Queensland in 1972 is Australia's highest recorded December temperature.  No indication at this early stage the extreme heat will reach the populated coast. 

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As we get closer to next week's huge heatwave I am going to post some of the latest forecasts for locations as issued by our Bureau of Meteorology. First up Canberra (inland south-east 580m asl):

Canberra.thumb.png.2a08164fd31e04baa14c4fb4e7d00ecc.png 

Canberra's December record is 39.2c in 1994 ( records date back to 1939 ). The all-time record is 42.2c in 1968. The December average is 26c. 

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Just enormous. The extreme heatwave rank is rare and it is so extensive. It usually denotes a historic 3-day min/max heat situation with at least one of those days very close to or exceeding a monthly record temperature.

Heatwave.thumb.png.efcf689ff0d3e836ae9f3aa6a213f140.png

Canberra's forecast maximum for next Saturday ( just released ) is 43c ( +4 above December record ).  Oh boy!

Edited by Styx

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There is media chatter about the prospect of Australia beating its all-time temperature record of 50.7c ( at Oodadatta in South Australia in 1960 ) by the end of the week. That's not showing up at present in the BoM forecasts for towns and outposts with a weather station. Presently, the forecast extremes are 48c in the state of South Australia (at numerous places all over), 48c in Queensland ( in the south-west ), 47c in New South Wales ( numerous in the west ) and 47c in Victoria ( numerous places in the north ). Only the state of Victoria breaks the December record on those numbers. The bigger picture is Australia is likely to break its record for hottest day for any month averaged across the continent on Wed, Thurs or Friday.

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6 hours ago, Styx said:Oodadatta in South Australia in 1960 ) by the end of the week.

So was there global warming in 1960 we didn’t know about?

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7 hours ago, Snipper said:

So was there global warming in 1960 we didn’t know about?

You are referring to the 1960 heatwave ( in early January ) that produced Australia's highest recorded temperature of 50.7c at the outback town of Oodnadatta. That heatwave not only affected the state of South Australia but also New South Wales in which multiple towns recorded their all-time temperature record. However, the vast majority of those temperature records at individual sites fell during the 2013 January heatwave. In other words the spatial extent and peak day of the intense heat of 2013 overwhelmingly exceeded 1960 ( even though a remote outback weather station didn't quite manage to pick up a 50c in 2013 ). If you go to Special Climate Statements via the BoM homepage and scroll down the list you can read a detailed report about 2013. This week the national record is forecast to fall for hottest day for average daily maximum and this will be reflected by dozens of sites breaking their individual record or going close. It shows up right now in forecasts for towns.  It is also the sheer frequency of major heat events in recent years which has no historical precedent. It's all publicly accessible via raw data and detailed reports. The media ( and politics ) will certainly go into meltdown if it exceeds 50.7c somewhere this week but that will only bring to the fore how broad and intense the heat is ( especially for mid December ). 

Edited by Styx

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8 hours ago, Snipper said:

So was there global warming in 1960 we didn’t know about?

The early January heatwave of 1960 hardly made a dent. The same applies when I look at state averages in isolation. The lead-up month of December 1959 was about +0.5c above average ( not significant ). Look at that trend line! In summer, it comes down to longer, more intense and broadscale heatwaves and very long periods of uninterrupted elevated temperature. If the areal averages are not satisfactory BoM has raw data online of hundreds of sites in Australia with easy reference guide to observe percentile ranks for monthly/annual/daily temp extremes.

665998283_Januarytrend.thumb.png.c6de421108ea04837320413361e2c5d7.png 

Also summer average and annual average. I love graphs.

1348113020_Summertrend.thumb.png.49ed4255128c3b7783f0377d69b65050.png1801263308_Annualtrend.thumb.png.9bbfb19c534e4e01f352d7756f0b15fb.png

 

 

   

 

Edited by Styx

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Western Sydney forecast ( Penrith Lakes ) 

Penrith.thumb.png.6500236f37568d00486ec6d61525136e.png

Penrith is outer western suburbs 60km west of Sydney CBD. Maximum of 46c on Saturday will be highest December temperature ever recorded in Greater Sydney. Current December record is 44.1c there in 2017. Bushfire danger may be minimised by lack of wind. Sydney CBD will have seabreeses and 36c.     

Edited by Styx

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Brisbane has just recorded its equal-hottest December day 41.2c ( 11 above average ). Won't be as hot for the rest of the week along the Queensland coast; onshore winds setting in. Things kick off for extreme temperatures elsewhere from Wednesday. 

Highest December temperatures in Brisbane ( records since 1887 )

41.2.....2019 16th

41.2.....1981

41.1.....1893

40.3.....1911

40.0.....2001

 

 

 

 

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BOM chat about the potential record breaking heat this week. 

 

video and ongoing air quality issues due to wildfire smoke

 

1612BOMausairqqaul.png

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Mid to upper 20s in Sydney today (Tuesday) it's only going to get hotter with 45c possible by Saturday

 

screenshot.jpg

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Tuesday's recorded temperatures 

697697603_December17.thumb.png.42b4db37fa4b143cb3ec0d1be405a9d5.png

Australia's maximum was 46.5c at Ceduna in South Australia state. No December state ( or capital city ) record for extreme temperature, but the Northern Territory's 46.0c was just 1.2c short. Peak temperatures still to come.

Wednesday forecast

67239253_December18forecast.thumb.png.fc9175db6c44315e94dfa332b405cd48.png

Edited by Styx

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Wednesday's recorded temperatures

2076496364_December18forecast.thumb.png.0feaf8dde9fad7d1b87bea697ad3549f.png

BoM made a statement today saying Tuesday was the hottest day recorded in Australia for average daily maximum temperature ( provisional ) but saying today was likely hotter. The average tomorrow could be even higher. Adelaide got very close to its December record today with 43.7c and Northern territory just fell short again. Friday and Saturday is the most alarming period as supercharged heat peaks in the populated south-east with the chance of dry lightning. 

Thursday and Friday forecast

794080693_December19.thumb.png.3bcfac8ccc69bd596031694f6e5a16fb.png2115482825_December20.thumb.png.9f6bb9ab6630bfaedda0bcb5ec367c57.png

 

 

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Australia has broken its December temperature record with a 49.8c reading at Eucla on the Western Australia coast ( near the South Australia border ). It could still go higher in that district as its only 1:30pm in the west at the moment. Eucla has records since 1910. The South Australia state record has also been broken and the state capital of Adelaide also has a new December record. There is also record for Canberra. A bit later tonight ( my time ) I will plot today's big numbers on a map. Friday is forecast to be very extreme in the south-east.  

Edited by Styx

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Thursday's recorded temperatures:

:1588575706_December19temps.thumb.png.fe9e55a523a19405afb680d612088c5a.png

A new December record in Australia of 49.9c. That was at Nullarbor near the South Australia coast. Followed by Eucla on Western Australia's coast with 49.8c. Eucla and Nullarbor both have 100+ years of temp records and I reckon those are the highest temps ever recorded so far south. Adelaide 45.3c easily exceeds its 1902 record by +1.2c ( records since 1887 ) and Canberra 39.3c nudges past its 1994 record ( records since 1939 ). Bushfires flaring again near Sydney - a city max of 39.3c and outer west 42.5c.

Friday and Saturday forecast:

1433526823_December20temps.thumb.png.ee7f9bafb4d492a561c52faafe77f63b.png165864195_December21temps.thumb.png.0bb08f4a9bdf2a48d438a8d3767cfd49.png

Very dangerous weather coming up. Adelaide 46 degrees and windy on Friday . Will be first time any state capital has had two 45+ days in a row. The Victorian state record looks like it will easily flip. Extreme heat in New South Wales very close to the coast on Saturday. A 47c max for western Sydney and 33c max for Sydney city. That much lower number for the city is factoring in a seabreese keeping the record heat back. But it looks like a close run thing.  

Edited by Styx

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Fridays recorded temperatures

186228430_December20recorded.thumb.png.8501a829d45b5ef1d584697e18adc2ec.png

49.2c today in the south-east (!!) with a cluster of 47s and 48s near the Vic/South Australia border.  Those types of temperatures in far south-east Australia are sensational ( as far as I know nothing in the past has come close to those extremes in the south-east of the country in any summer month). A pre-frontal trough blew in a fickle seabreeze into Adelaide so the main city site missed out on another 45c+ day. In Victoria, the December state record was beaten by up to 12 towns ( 10 automatic weather sites confirmed and 2 manually read sites mostly in the north )  Melbourne 43.5c was second hottest December day behind 1868 ( records since 1855 ). Tonight there are serious bushfires in the Adelaide hills which have taken out an undetermined number of houses.

Saturday and Sunday outlook

458718621_December21forecast.thumb.png.4f94144f9d7d76d4126fec0dd60c14b7.png236599879_December22forecast.thumb.png.106e02588b132765aa131e9d04cecd9a.png

The New South Wales Fire Service has issued a Catastrophic Fire Danger for Saturday. The forecast for Sydney is essentially the same as before - 47c for the west and 36c for the city. Cool wind change will be "strong and squally". The 47c is for the western suburbs of Penrith Lakes ( temp records since 1995 ) and Richmond ( records since 1928 ). That is +4c above the December record for those places and 0.7c under the all-time record for Greater Sydney ( set in Richmond in 1939 ).  

Edited by Styx

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3 hours ago, Styx said:

Fridays recorded temperatures

186228430_December20recorded.thumb.png.8501a829d45b5ef1d584697e18adc2ec.png

49.2c today in the south-east (!!) with a cluster of 47s and 48s near the Vic/South Australia border.  Those types of temperatures in far south-east Australia are sensational ( as far as I know nothing in the past has come close to those extremes in the south-east of the country in any summer month). A pre-frontal trough blew in a fickle seabreeze into Adelaide so the main city site missed out on another 45c+ day. In Victoria, the December state record was beaten by up to 12 towns ( 10 automatic weather sites confirmed and 2 manually read sites mostly in the north )  Melbourne 43.5c was second hottest December day behind 1868 ( records since 1855 ). Tonight there are serious bushfires in the Adelaide hills which have taken out an undetermined number of houses.

Saturday and Sunday outlook

458718621_December21forecast.thumb.png.4f94144f9d7d76d4126fec0dd60c14b7.png236599879_December22forecast.thumb.png.106e02588b132765aa131e9d04cecd9a.png

The New South Wales Fire Service has issued a Catastrophic Fire Danger for Saturday. The forecast for Sydney is essentially the same as before - 47c for the west and 36c for the city. Cool wind change will be "strong and squally". The 47c is for the western suburbs of Penrith Lakes ( temp records since 1995 ) and Richmond ( records since 1928 ). That is +4c above the December record for those places and 0.7c under the all-time record for Greater Sydney ( set in Richmond in 1939 ).  

Yes but also the night time temp has been low for this time of year in Victoria from 11c overnight to 40c during the day. The high temps are not the only story here

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