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 Another example of BOM bending the truth and then being caught out

.............

So BOM reported a maximum of 46C. But then they were "caught out" By whom? Er ...... well, by BOM. So BOM "caught out" BOM "bending the truth". Some people!

And following through on some of the links provided, this awesome example of intellectual dexterity stood out:

John M 22. January 2015 at 21:10 | Permalink | Reply

Interesting to compare the ABC’s matter-of-fact correction with the breathless original headline:

“Alice Springs records its hottest day ever, mercury smashes 55-year recordâ€

Note the headline implying it was a mercury thermometer that recorded the record.

(http://notrickszone.com/2015/01/22/alice-springs-automatic-weather-station-inflated-temperature-by-4-5c-producing-false-record-high/#sthash.8shMg7M9.MBhGcrir.dpbs)

Talk about "implying"! Talk about desperation!

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Hi Kiwi...no not really! The suburbs on the river front and the city centre had to contend with some icy patches only, which looked like light frost. Once the sun broke thru a couple of hours after su

Sunday night 1030pm: Snow is falling in downtown Hobart ( sealevel ) for first time since 2008. It's trying very hard to settle. Everything is going to plan for the first settled fall here as low as t

Part 3  End. Launceston, Tasmania. That feeling of witnessing snow for the very first time in your home environment.   

Posted Images

Severe thunderstorms hit the local region once again during yesterday (Australia Day) bringing heavy to torrential downpours, not too dissimilar to the stormy day we had back on the 20th. 24 hour totals were as high as 190mm. At the coastal village of Wooli, an impressive 101mm fell in an hour during a thunderstorm. The city of Port Macquarie received 110mm in 2 hours. We missed the heaviest of the rain here but during a thunderstorm we still got a heavy fall of 36mm in 45 minutes (which I reported in, and made the storm warning once again, though they typed the town's name as 'Southwest Rock', lol!).

WGFojMv.png

 

Following that rain there was a couple of minor/moderate flood warnings issued in the smaller river valleys, with catchments fairly saturated at the moment from other heavy falls that occurred during late December and this month.

 

Port Macquarie during the heavy rain outside of the ABC office -

10858620_792697117452093_600248546552891

(Source: ABC Mid North Coast - Facebook)

 

Some unlucky cars in Port Macquarie -

10940605_10203966167050311_5229605612867

10420185_792735324114939_221772077319111

(Source: ABC Mid North Coast - Facebook)

 

"A bleak Australia Day 2015" - Port Macquarie News - 69 photos in slideshow gallery

http://www.portnews.com.au/story/2840955/a-bleak-australia-day-2015-photos/?cs=257

 

Further south, Sydney had its coldest Australia Day in 50 years reaching a maximum of just 20.4ºC. The coldest Australia Day on record in Sydney is 19.4ºC in 1957.

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/559961571351216131

https://twitter.com/WeathermanABC/status/559591501416521729

 

Temp anomalies map for Australia Day,

Maxs

2015012620150126.gif

 

Mins

2015012620150126.gif

Edited by NorthNSW
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Australia's coolest January for mean maximum temperature in 15 years

 

janmax_zps4866c69f.png

 

Blame it on the rain

 

rain_zps27db0691.gif

 

 

The capital cities have had just 4 days exceeding 40C this summer ( 2 days in Perth + 2 in Adelaide ), compared to 19 days last summer ( either shared days or separately ) over the same time period (Dec and Jan).  The tally the year before was 14 ( 2012-13 season was Australia's hottest summer and most capitals exceeded 40C at some stage ). The lowest number of days of 40+ over the first two months of summer since the 1999-2000 season is 0 ( in that summer ). The historical average of all years appears to be near 6 days. None of this may mean much ...but what a contrast from recent summers. Still a month to go, longer term charts forecasting some serious heat developing towards the mid part of February over western and central Australia. Maybe not all over yet.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Some hailstorms developed between here and Brisbane on the afternoon and evening of Jan 31st. The largest stones reported were up to around 5cm in diameter.

Brunswick Heads (NSW North Coast) -

10360896_776544579106570_210148944458295

(Source: North Coast Storm Chasers - Facebook)

 

Sunnybank Hills (southern suburb of Brisbane) -

10954548_10153095446169579_6133782569910

 

Springfield Lakes (outer southwestern suburb of Brisbane) -

10730885_10153045748832258_5222875207831

(Source of both photos above: Higgins Storm Chasing - Facebook)

 

Just thought this was a nice pic after the storms that day at Tregeagle (NSW North Coast) -

10959743_324528344424988_308390089187919

(Source: Northern NSW Severe Weather - Facebook)

 

Missed a likely hailstorm here by barely a kilometre that evening (there was also plenty of lightning in this storm cell) -

OKj1Pul.png

 

Heavy thunderstorms developed about the local region during the evening of Feb 1st and persisted in some areas overnight. We had a storm bring 38mm in 50 minutes here at the house. 74mm fell in one hour at Wooli. The highest 24 hour total among BOM's gauges was 142mm at Bray Street in Coffs Harbour. Unofficially, there was a fall of 256mm at a village called Warrell Creek between here and Macksville. There were heavy storms and showers sitting over that area non-stop for about 5½ hours (whereas most other locations had showers/storms affect them for 1-2 hours and then move on to other places, which generally stopped totals from exceeding 100mm).

 

I'll be in Canberra from the evening of the 13th until the morning of the 17th. The min/max temps forecast for those days are:

13th 15ºC/26ºC

14th 14ºC/26ºC

15th 14ºC/30ºC

16th 16ºC/29ºC

17th 14ºC/27ºC

Overall, the temps average out to be basically normal for Canberra during February.

Edited by NorthNSW
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We were near the southern end of TC / Ex-TC Marcia effects. All up nearly 120mm of rain here associated with her, a little further north totals around the Coffs Harbour area were exceeding 200mm which was enough to cause minor riverine flooding in that area.

Chicken feed compared to the totals in QLD around the Sunshine Coast and neighbouring Caboolture area where totals were in the 400s and Landsborough receiving 510mm associated with Marcia.

 

2015021820150224.gif

2015021820150224.gif

Edited by NorthNSW
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Victorian storms: Boy killed, girl taken to hospital after tree falls on house in Dandenong Ranges

 

A boy has died and a girl has been taken to hospital with head, chest and leg injuries after a tree fell on their house during a severe thunderstorm in the Dandenong Ranges, east of Melbourne.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-28/melbourne-storms-ses-calls-help-people-trapped-fallen-tree/6271536

 

The warning issued by BOM

 

https://archive.today/egVm3

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Australia records its fifth hottest summer on record, and the second hottest February, but extreme heat days largely absent from the coast.

Mean temperature anomalies ( 1961-90 ):

Dec....+0.9

Jan......0.0

Feb.....+1.7

 

tmean_aus_1202_655_zpsmesag6s7.png

rain_zpsbxsnbn7r.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

Very hot in central Australia lately with a couple of standout heat records set today. Birdsville near the Queensland/Northern Territory border reached 46.5C ( records since 1957 ), ranking it as Queensland's second highest March temperature on record, an emphatic record, considering it's well past the mid point of March. It is highly likely to be Australia's latest 46 degree reading into autumn on record. Last year Australia had its earliest 45 day before summer on record ( on October 9 in Western Australia ).

 

qld_zpsostk4myo.png

 

350 miles to the west in Alice Springs a monthly heat record for them, reaching 42.3C ( records since 1942 ). The town also set a heat record in November last year, and had their hottest Cctober day in 2013.

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Storm activity returned to the region after a fairly settled first week of March. On the 8th, storms were mostly isolated affecting areas nearer to the ranges and around Coffs Harbour. Heavy rainfall accompanied the storms with 50.2mm falling in an hour at Coffs Harbour and 50mm in 30 minutes at Woolgoolga. A storm warning wasn't issued until after the storms had affected these areas...
More storms generally forming in the same area on the 9th brought more heavy rain falling at similar intensities to the day before and a wind gust of 113km/h occurring at Grafton Airport.
Storms were more widespread affecting other parts of the north coast, including here during the 13th. Coffs Harbour experienced a severe storm again. Yet again it caught the Bureau unaware as there was no storm warning issued before it came. 46.6mm fell in 30 minutes with rain continuing afterwards over already saturated ground from the wet summer (549.4mm fell in February alone). The 183.4mm fall made it the wettest March day since 1974. The storms brought flash flooding to Coffs Harbour -

10422920_797066697055786_312065042645182

11063939_837802962939922_372961688745487

(Source of both pics: Higgins Storm Chasing - Facebook)

 

B_8sPxlUYAAP9v7.jpg
B_8bcaPUcAEdsSN.jpg

(Source of both pics: NBN News - Twitter)

 

Yesterday (the 21st), parts of inland northern NSW and inland southern QLD were affected by very severe storms that brought hail up to 12cm in diameter. Chinchilla (QLD) and eastern parts of Narrabri (NSW) were the worst affected towns. The severe thunderstorm warning issued did warn that the storms could become supercelluar, and supercells definitely developed: "Thunderstorm development in the warning area is expected to be rapid this afternoon with some thunderstorms quickly becoming severe once the storm starts. Supercell thunderstorms are considered a real possibility."

Hailstone that fell near Narrabri -

Yr62s79.jpg

(Source: Narrabri Shire Weather Station Network - Facebook)

11081415_10152896484343375_1784289342504

(Source: The Courier Narrbari - Facebook)

 

Hailstone at Chinchilla -

16693435020_2c1f189263_o.jpg

11073565_10152635518370881_1230133328308

(Source of both pics: Chinchilla Community Forum - Facebook)

 

The small town of Bingara was also affected by severe hailstorms -

11049493_1626069250961871_23978785176046

11008481_1626069334295196_18798826204201

(Source: Tamworth & Region Weather - Facebook)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoQ3oHkk1uE

 

A couple of other videos of the severe hailstorms -

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=853692378035426

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152753910632844

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152837033669389

http://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/video-huge-hail-stones-smash-chinchillas-bulldog-p/2582071/

 

Last night, heavy rain and thunderstorms brought falls of up to 178mm about the southern parts of the North Coast causing localised flash flooding. Lake Cathie, a small town about 10 minutes south of Port Macquarie, had 123mm in two hours (51mm falling in the first hour, followed by 72mm falling in the next hour). The heavier stuff (50-100mm+) was to the south, missing here by about 30kms.

Edited by NorthNSW
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It always amazes me that no injuries are reported from these types of severe hail storms, those balls of ice are bigger than cricket balls, smashing windows with roofs being penetrated. Proves they are capable of directly wounding people if they can't run for shelter fast enough.

 

-----

 

Anyway, further to my earlier post the Bureau of Meteorology has just released a Special Climate Statement on the historic March heatwave which recently affected central and northern Australia. Conditions have now normalised. It is Australia's third autumn in a row to experience a large scale significant heatwave and pretty much continues the pattern of historic heat events across the country, which have been happening on a near bimonthly occurrence, since Spring 2012.   

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/

 

An explanation, temperature anomaly maps and a list of temperatures records.

The heatwave produced not only Australia's highest temperature ever recorded so far into autumn, but that record was also set for the Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia! 

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It always amazes me that no injuries are reported from these types of severe hail storms, those balls of ice are bigger than cricket balls, smashing windows with roofs being penetrated. Proves they are capable of directly wounding people if they can't run for shelter fast enough.

It amazes me too, though I think bruisings and minor cuts/abrasions would be reasonably common in these types of storms (especially those occurring between about 3pm-6pm) but are severely under-reported due to home first aid being sufficient without that need to seek medical attention at the hospital.

 

After yesterday's humid 30ºC day (dewpoints were firmly in the low 20s and getting up around 24ºC), a cold front moved through overnight bringing cooler conditions and drier air today. It is looking as though summer ended yesterday, with autumnal conditions now establishing themselves from today onwards. I can't see true summery conditions dominating here again. There may be two or three proper summery days/nights over the next 2-3 weeks but autumnal conditions should be the dominate force now (the forecast below doesn't show humidity but dewpoints this week are expected to regularly be around 15-19ºC rather than quite routinely reaching 20ºC+).

G1BKNpo.png

 

The change from summery to autumnal conditions here usually happens in late March or early April, so things seem to be going on schedule here.

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I see Broken Hill is in dire straights due to the severe drought. It caught my eye because Broken Hill started the Australian mineral boom and was the destination of many a Cornish miner.

 

Broken Hill faces another water crisis as drought lingers and Menindee Lakes dry up

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-21/broken-hill-faces-another-water-crisis-as-drought-lingers/6336622

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Seems to be a case of increasing water useage by industry - rather than a discernable change in rainfall patterns in that district of New South Wales - which is the cause for declining water supply there. There does appear to be a water management plan in action to safeguard the viability of outback towns like Broken Hill. The vast underground water supply ( part of the Great Artisian Basin ) will always make these towns sustainable but it looks like the locals are dead against any plan that would make bore water the prime water source ( apparently the water quality is pretty bad...salty and turbid).

 

brokenhill_zps6jxcfnqv.png

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It's in...the snow prediction forecast for the Australian Alps for the upcoming season from one of the top experts in the field! It doesn't look particually encouraging.

 

 

Outcome

In the new model, those seven parameter choices give a 2015 best-estimate peak snow depth of 141 cm.  Sorry guys; that’s just how it is. The 1-σ error is 44 cm, so the range 97 – 185 cm would be expected to include about two-thirds of likely outcomes, if the parameters were perfectly known (they’re not, of course).

 

For comparison, a statistically thorough naive prediction would yield a 2015 peak depth of 176 cm, with a ±1-σ range from about 120 – 240 cm. On that basis my prediction is for a well below average peak depth (whatever “average†means these days with our alpine climate changing so rapidly).

  http://gergs.net/2015/04/season-2015-snow-depth-prediction/

 

The full post is quite technical but the driving forces are explained quite well.

Tasmania quite often doesn't follow the snow fall pattern on the mainland...nevertheless the mainland snow trend over the years is interesting to follow.

 

LAST YEAR AND 2013 : 

2014_zpsnghzxp6w.png

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The past week and a half has been a transitional period from summer to autumn. The passage of a dry change late this afternoon heralding the true arrival of autumn -

sQxQ0gz.png

 

Last night, three storms moved through town during the period between 10:45pm-2:30am, so needless to say I didn't get alot of sleep. The storm around 2am was the strongest of the three, pretty sure it would've woken everyone up around town with the frequent lightning it contained -

o4Fysg8.png

 

It reached into the high 20s here along the north coast of NSW today, but this was in contrast to the rest of the state. The first non-alpine snow of 2015 has fallen in NSW today. Flurries and dustings of snow occurred over the highest parts of the central ranges of NSW today, including in the Oberon area west of Katoomba/Sydney. Video of snow falling at Shooters Hill (near Oberon) -

Some photos on this Photobucket account of the snow at Shooters Hill today: http://s1091.photobucket.com/user/Mountainmaid65/media/treedrift.jpg.html

The cold pool of air on GFS's display at the 850mb and 500mb levels -

wnOsFqx.png

97JuLGX.png

 

Daylight saving time finished over the Easter weekend -

Sunrise on Easter Saturday - 7:00am / Sunset - 6:40pm

Sunrise on Easter Sunday - 6:01am / Sunset - 5:39pm

Edited by NorthNSW
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-6C in Tasmania the night before last ( at Liawenee, central Tasmania, 1000m asl ) and this morning it is -4.1C there. These are the coldest pair of days of the season so far. Tasmania's record low for April is -7.7C. So far it is a very cool and dry mid autumn month down here. March was also cool. This weekend sees snow possibly to near 700m  in the south, the lowest altitude snow of the year.  At the start of March there was snow to near 900m.

 

In Hobart this morning it is 4.9C. It is 630am,  just before sunrise. A clear morning, it is likely to get a little colder still, as cold air drains down off the central highlands, down the valleys and into city area. The April minimum average is 9.4C and the record low is 0.7C. Currently running at almost 1C colder than the April mean average (81-10).

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Sub-polar jet stream meanders northward again in this region of the world. After a low level snow event in New Zealand last week, a significant cold outbreak is about to hit south-east Australia. The cold push from the south looks terrific on the latest satellite picture.

 

satpic_zpsasqhyzpz.jpg

 

Light snow forecast to 500m in Tasmania, 900m in Victoria, 1200m in New South Wales. Snow settling at this level in south-east Tasmania during April is rare - I only remember one occasion in the last 25 years. Snow pictures tomorrow if there's anything appealing to show.

 

------

 

With colder air penetrating across the country, the Sydney Morning Herald reports 

 

The longer-term outlook for the rest of April suggests the cooler conditions may settle in. Canadian models indicate most of Australia will see some of the world's most abnormally cool weather for any and region during the last week of April (see below):

 

rainsun1_zpsxv8hbtuu.png

 

This is such a rare scenario to see.

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Its cold, windy and awfully wet if you live in the Sydney - Hunter region. 15c at the moment in Sydney at 1:30pm, down from 27c over the weekend. We are getting close to 150mm in the last 48 hours in many parts of the Sydney region. I think some parts of the Hunter region are closer to 200+mm over the same time period.

Cruise ships stuck outside the harbour in 9+ meter swell.
 

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