Australian Weather

[SomeLikeItHot]

Repost Hopefully with images working.

A complex and interesting question BTV, you are correct about variability, but certainly the projections from climate models have had average rainfall for Australia to go down.
 
The third IPCC assesment report
To summarize the rainfall results, drier conditions are anticipated for most of Australia over the 21st century. However, consistent with conclusions in WGI, an increase in heavy rainfall also is projected, even in regions with small decreases in mean rainfall. This is a result of a shift in the frequency distribution of daily rainfall toward fewer light and moderate events and more heavy events. This could lead to more droughts and more floods.
 
I've always found that rainfall projection strange, If you look at what has happenned in the recorded rainfall record for Australia over the last century of warming (and increasing CO2), as a continent average rainfall has gone up.
 

 
 

 
 

 
 However it doesn't really make that much sense to talk about a since climate of Australia, as the climatic difference between say Darwin and Tasmania is pretty extreme and it turns out that a lot of the increase is due to Northern Australia. However Southern Australia still has an increase overall.

The regions that do look to have declining rainfall are SW Australia (ie Sth corner of WA one of the main wheat growing and main agricultural area of WA) and Tasmania.
 
 


 


 
The CSIRO (government Science body) in 2007 predicted
 
http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Marine--Atmospheric-Research/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-2007.aspx#a2
 
"... decreases in annual average rainfall are likely in southern Australia - rainfall is likely to decrease in southern areas during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and along the west coast during autumn. For 2030, there will be little annual rainfall change in the far north."
 
One of the concerns however is that evaporation rates will be higher and indeed may be the bigger impact on freshwater. eg Tim flannery who later became the Chief Commissioner of the Australian_Climate_Commission.
 
http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm
 
 
"We're already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. Although we're getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that's translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That's because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn't actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that's a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we're going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation."
 
To me it seems that a few people were too eager to claim the series of El Nino events in the early 90s to 2000s as evidence of climate change rather than variability, making essentially the same mistake as those claiming climate change ended in 1998 or 2005 or whenever. A 10-15 year change in pattern is probably no a good indicator of the long term trend.
 
Edit all the images come from the BOM. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Climate-change-tracker&tracker=time-series&tQ%5Bgraph%5D=rranom&tQ%5Barea%5D=tas&tQ%5Bseason%5D=0112&tQ%5Bave_yr%5D=T

[SomeLikeItHot]

 

 

I could spend an afternoon finding quotes from other science outlets and spokespersons at the time if I had the time and inclination to do so, but I am not really interested in a nit pick debate about what was said  several years ago and their intended meanings. I thought it would be polite however to answer your question,  I understand the angle you are coming from in respect to an appreciation of science and expertise, and I do enjoy reading your posts especially in the climate change threads.

 

Quite agree with this. There was quite a lot of hyperbole about this at the time in Australia around 2006-07 on the theme of "look what climate change has already done", in terms of the drought - and that this was the new normal. Looking back at the historical record at the time to the early part of the 20th Century it didn't seem that the "new normal" was any different to the old one in terms of rainfall (with the exception of some of the areas I highlighted).  While I appreciate the need to highlight what is likely to be the biggest challenge of the mid 21st century, overstating in the short term has the potential to undermine you case in the slightly longer term, which is my concern with this. The various AGW opponents web sites are covered with this sort of "wrong prediction" quotes, where someone has used a trend that climate models predicted for the 30-100 year time frame and stated that based on a recent 10-15 year trend that its already happened.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cheers for the responses. Still none of the images are working for me though?

 

It still seems as though it's a case of media and politicians making out the scientific work to be more reactionary then it is. This is a problem all over the world, and not representative of the peer reviewed work going on.

I guess it's difficult for a whole area of science to be suddenly thrown into the deep end of the media spotlight, with vested interests trying at every turn to take some line, out of context phrase in an email, word in an interview or even a silly political statement as representative of the entirety of climate science in order to give it a bashing and further their own ends.

How can the scientists, ill prepared and unequipped for this situation, exhibit some control on how the media and politics manipulate their work for political and greedy needs? It is causing a lot of damage to the science as a whole in much of the public's perspective, even that Flannery guy, who's supposed to be an informed representative, certainly ain't doing the scientists any favours!

[crikey]

Here is the time series of inflow into Melbourne Dams/water storage 1910 to 2012

published by Melbourne water,

http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water_storages/water_report/water_rWeeport.asp?bhcp=1

 

The drought of  1997-2009 in VIC was obviously the worst for inflow in 100 yrs of data since 1915

 

Our desalination plant  in Wonthagi VIC was planned during this time as the low rainfall was expected to continue and population expand

However the plant was finished after the rains finally came. 

We had some mighty floods in 2010and dams quickly filled..

Melbourne rate payers have water bill increased $200a year to pay for on stand by maintenance. The de -sal' plant is not in use

I do agree it was wise to build it.

However both the CSIRO and governments expected it to be used immediately..

 

Which model told them we would enter a wet spell?

 

I found the comment by Melbourne water interesting as the CSIRO indicated that this drought  was expected and all is going to plan

The CSIRO indicate the drought of the late 90'is consistent with C02 emission scenarios expected in 2050?

 

We are currently in a wet period.. Negative PDO, Negative IPO

More rain is likely

I suspect the CSIRO will claim C02 credit for the dams overspilling and any weather event they can get there hands on.

 

Having said that,. We are waiting for the snow to return!

and BOM say ..."That  won't happen under AGW"

They hold the joker card..

my copy of this time series of Melbourne dam inflows

https://picasaweb.google.com/104698633266954768357/RIVERS#5894860883517962434

 

 

[Methuselah]

Welcome to NW, crikey...Could you please put you location into your profile?

[SomeLikeItHot]

yeah well I give up on posting the pics no idea not working for me now either. You can see what I am talking about though at the link at the bottom of the post if you are interested.

[Methuselah]

yeah well I give up on posting the pics no idea not working for me now either. You can see what I am talking about though at the link at the bottom of the post if you are interested.

I could see the images earlier, SLH...

[SomeLikeItHot]

Cheers for the responses. Still none of the images are working for me though?

 

It still seems as though it's a case of media and politicians making out the scientific work to be more reactionary then it is. This is a problem all over the world, and not representative of the peer reviewed work going on.

I guess it's difficult for a whole area of science to be suddenly thrown into the deep end of the media spotlight, with vested interests trying at every turn to take some line, out of context phrase in an email, word in an interview or even a silly political statement as representative of the entirety of climate science in order to give it a bashing and further their own ends.

How can the scientists, ill prepared and unequipped for this situation, exhibit some control on how the media and politics manipulate their work for political and greedy needs? It is causing a lot of damage to the science as a whole in much of the public's perspective, even that Flannery guy, who's supposed to be an informed representative, certainly ain't doing the scientists any favours!

 

I don't agree that its been a difficult situation they have been put in to communicate a large long term risk in a way that will create action now. Also in flannery's defence I thought his book for example and his opinions more generally are reasonable, just some of his interview statements have been a bit over the top at times. It would be frustrating to be arguing the case in public debate where the opposition is not for the most part nearly so well measured in their claims.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Here is the time series of inflow into Melbourne Dams/water storage 1910 to 2012

published by Melbourne water,

http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water_storages/water_report/water_rWeeport.asp?bhcp=1

 

The drought of  1997-2009 in VIC was obviously the worst for inflow in 100 yrs of data since 1915

 

Our desalination plant  in Wonthagi VIC was planned during this time as the low rainfall was expected to continue and population expand

However the plant was finished after the rains finally came. 

We had some mighty floods in 2010and dams quickly filled..

Melbourne rate payers have water bill increased $200a year to pay for on stand by maintenance. The de -sal' plant is not in use

I do agree it was wise to build it.

However both the CSIRO and governments expected it to be used immediately..

 

Which model told them we would enter a wet spell?

 

I found the comment by Melbourne water interesting as the CSIRO indicated that this drought  was expected and all is going to plan

The CSIRO indicate the drought of the late 90'is consistent with C02 emission scenarios expected in 2050?

 

We are currently in a wet period.. Negative PDO, Negative IPO

More rain is likely

I suspect the CSIRO will claim C02 credit for the dams overspilling and any weather event they can get there hands on.

 

Having said that,. We are waiting for the snow to return!

and BOM say ..."That  won't happen under AGW"

They hold the joker card..

my copy of this time series of Melbourne dam inflows

https://picasaweb.google.com/104698633266954768357/RIVERS#5894860883517962434

Interesting chart. While 2006 was lowest on record you couldn't really say the level alone was unexpected given 3 other quite similarly (but slightly higher) low results over time. Those however, however the run of bad seasons prior to it made it obviously worse.  

[BornFromTheVoid]

An interesting discussion, but we should probably stop cluttering this thread with climate stuff. I could set up a thread in the climate area perhaps, maybe something on the disconnect between the science and the information that reaches the general population?

[Styx]

yeah well I give up on posting the pics no idea not working for me now either. You can see what I am talking about though at the link at the bottom of the post if you are interested.

 

If you didn't do so already, you need to transfer the images you save on your computer to an imageshack/photobook account, and then transfer them from there via the link displayed on account, to the forum.

 

 

An interesting discussion, but we should probably stop cluttering this thread with climate stuff. I could set up a thread in the climate area perhaps, maybe something on the disconnect between the science and the information that reaches the general population?

 

I notice there is already a thread

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76468-would-better-pr-be-beneficial-in-getting-the-message-across-to-the-general-public/

 

But the problem remains..what about scientific reports, from different science bodies, that conflict in their findings to future climate scenario on same subject? Such as rainfall scenarios.  What report is more significant, if they diverge on their findings? What is the public to make of that,.How can the confliction be given a responsible governmental response in terms of policy . 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Styx

[Styx]

It would be frustrating to be arguing the case in public debate where the opposition is not for the most part nearly so well measured in their claims.

 

It is to be hoped that the Labor government in Australia is re-elected in the upcoming poll, despite the new/old PM having some unfortunate sociopathological tendenancies which made his initial tenure dysfunctional and brought about his downfall. Hopefully he has remedied his personal problems during his recess from the top job, despite being a snake in the grass during the 3 years of Gillards primeministership.

 

The Opposition has run on a campaign to abolish Australia's carbon trading scheme, implemented by Gillard, in order to "restore Australia's competiveness" and to remove the "big bad tax". Direct quotes. Opposition leader is also on record by suggesting AGW is "absolute crap". Direct quote. Well worth remembering - Australia has not been in recession for 22 years, times are not tough. Will we not be seens as greedy bas#ards if we turn away from environmental progress if we change government?! We will be back to the starting blocks, same conflict, same poisonous discourse 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Styx

[Styx]

 

Yesterday on Hobart's Derwent river

 

Wild winds cause havoc

 

WILD weather kept emergency services busy yesterday as winds ripped off roofs, downed power lines and tore boats from their moorings.

Extreme wind gusts are set to continue this week with 80-90km/h gusts predicted for today, easing a little tomorrow and Thursday and returning on Friday with temperatures plummeting to 6C and snow predicted for Mt Wellington and the Central Highlands.

A severe weather warning of winds up to 100km/h was issued by the Weather Bureau at 9.30am yesterday but emergency services were shocked at the ferocity of the gusts.

 

"I think it took everyone by surprise," Tasmania Police radio room sergeant Nick Cooper said.

 

The Weather Bureau's meteorologist Vicky Lucas said Maatsuyker Island had the highest wind gust of 133km/h, Mt Wellington was close behind with 131km/h and Hobart city recorded a gust of 98km/h.

http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/07/02/382651_tasmania-news.html

 

 

 

Very surprised that 98km/hr ( about 60m/hr ) was all the anemometre was able to register yesterday. I suspect the Derwent river chunneled  most of it. And so too certain city streets in Hobart! I do too wonder whether there may be some sort of complacency amongst yacht and craft owners when it comes to tieing down their vessels. Seems like not a gale wind event goes by without a yacht ending up being washed ashore with unfortunate consequence!

 

Back in March. Much closer to home!

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
Jun 27th - 13.6ºC / 21.5ºC - SE 35km/h @ 12:23am - 21.0mm
Jun 28th - 13.2ºC / 15.9ºC - WSW 28km/h @ 5:33am - 14.2mm
Jun 29th - 13.0ºC / 20.3ºC - SW 26km/h @ 10:07pm - 1.6mm
Jun 30th - 12.0ºC / 16.4ºC - SW 37km/h @ 10:31 - 5.4mm
Jul 1st - 13.1ºC / 20.8ºC - S 65km/h @ 7:09pm - 17.8mm
Jul 2nd - 13.0ºC / 18.3ºC - SW 52km/h @ 12:46pm - Nil
Jul 3rd - 14.1ºC / 20.4ºC - SW 30km/h @ 9:51am - Nil

 

Past week:
A "topsy-turvy" week for max temps, some mild days with a few cool days (didn't feel cold due to high humidity). The high humidity and cloudcover, and later in the week, breezy conditions kept nights warm for this time of year. The low ended up forming off the southeast Queensland coast, far enough to the north to only bring showery weather rather than rain. The low moved away from the coast overnight into the 2nd.
Midday cam images for the past week [image approx 600kb]:

 

~~~

This week (Jul 4th to Jul 10th):
It was fine and mild today. Warm tomorrow (for this time of year). A ridge and an area of high pressure is expected to bring fine conditions all week. Cooler air will filter into the region as the week progresses.
Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 23 / 20 / 18 / 19 / 18 / 19

Edited July 4, 2013 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

A significant cold outbreak is underway in Tasmania. Severe weather advisories have been issued for forecast low level snow falls ( to 200 metre level ), abnormally high tides ( over 50cm above normal levels ), and peak wind speeds in southern Tasmania this evening from 100-120km/hr ( 60-75m/hr ). All inclusive of the Hobart district. Sheep graziers and bushwalkers have been told to watch out.

 

The high tides are likely to cause sealevel flooding to communities on the seaward side of Hobarts Derwent river. The snow level around Hobart,  if realised, will be the lowest settled snow event since July 2008 and will effect many hillside suburbs. Before that, one has to go back to September 1995 to see a more significant snowfall event ( heavy snow to about 150m ). The last time snow settled in inner Hobart at sealevel ( close to where i live ) was July 1986.

 

Friday afternoon 2pm and currently 6.8C in the city and in  freefall and raining ( 5 below July average daily maximum ). Atop Mt Wellington in Hobart (1270m ) -2.3C.  The coldest air is still quite a few hours away.

 

Hobart from the rivers eastside. Snow is likely to make a rare appearance by tomorrow morning on the upper third of the hill range. The CBD is hidden behind the cove where the yachts are.

 

Latest satellite pic with the cold cluster of air to Tasmania's south west

 

A beautiful looking synoptic chart as far as Tasmania is concerned

Edited July 5, 2013 by Styx

[Styx]

Tasmania went close to recording its lowest temperature on record Tuesday, -12.2C at Liawenee ( 1000m asl ) in the Great Lake district ( central Tasmania ). This is the lowest temperature in Tasmania since the all-time record of -13.0C was set, in July 1983. Also the third time this winter that Liawenee has breached the -10C mark ( 9 below average ) - there have been only 6 other occasions that -10C has been surpassed in Tasmania since this site began operating in 1984, and this stat is inclusive of all BOM sites from that point in time...so 3 times in one season when we're only half way thru it, is quite remarkable! Well worth pointing out the broader perspective though... this winter statewide is currently milder than average ( somewhere in the range of 0.5-1.0 above 1961-90 )

 

Tasmania's ABC television news report on the -12.2 event!

Record low in central Tasmania 'like walking into a freezer'http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-09/record-low-in-central-tasmania-27like-walking-into-a-freezer27/4807874

 

The cold outbreak on Friday night and into Saturday saw snow settle locally to about the 330m level, but rainfall and snowfall quantities exceeded what was expected. Eventhough Hobart has had quite a few occasions in the last decade that snow has settled at a lower altitude ( not unusual ) , this snow event ranks close to the top for this century  in terms of quantity to a relatively low level,... 30-50cm at elevation, more in drifts. Makes for a preety scene...

 

Looking toward Mt Wellington, Hobart from Otago Bay ( about 16km/10 miles away from Hobart ).

Reader submitted ABC news Tasmania

Edited July 10, 2013 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):
Jul 4th - 12.1ºC / 21.7ºC - N 41km/h @ 11:16am - Nil
Jul 5th - 15.3ºC / 24.0ºC - NW 39km/h @ 8:00am - Nil
Jul 6th - 9.8ºC / 21.3ºC - ENE 24km/h @ 1:16pm - Nil
Jul 7th - 6.2ºC / 19.1ºC - SSW 31km/h @ 11:52am - Nil
Jul 8th - 7.1ºC / 18.9ºC - SSE 22km/h @ 1:32pm - Nil
Jul 9th - 8.3ºC / 18.9ºC - SSE 46km/h @ 3:42pm - 5.0mm
Jul 10th - 11.4ºC / 15.3ºC - SW 33km/h @ 10:50am - Nil

 

Past week:
Fine for most of the week. Quite warm on the 5th with NW'ly winds ahead of weakening cold front (about 5 degrees above normal for July max temps, but nowhere near record-breaking though, most July max temp records about the region are between 28.0 to 30.5ºC). A brief onshore flow of showers moved through during the evening of the 9th as the high moved into the Tasman Sea. The 10th was a sneaky cold day, thanks to persistent cloudcover.
Midday cam images for the past week [image approx 600kb]:

 

This week (Jul 11th to Jul 17th):
It's been fine today, just the slight chance of a shower overnight. A ridge of high pressure should be dominant feature from tomorrow afternoon onwards, promoting settled weather on the coast. A trough should move into the west of the state during Sunday and Monday but it is not expected to bring any rain or showers here on the coast. A cold front is expected to move into the western half of the state on Wednesday, but is currently not expected to reach the north coast until the next day. It should be a mild week, though nights may tend a bit cool in the early half of the week.
Bureau's forecast max temps for the next six days (Tomorrow to Wednesday): 19 / 19 / 19 / 20 / 20 / 21

 

[Upgrade]

Hello from Melbourne. 

 

Winter here still hasn't really bitten. 

 

We had a stormy start to June and a meandering low pressure to the East of us for a couple of days mid month which gave some decent falls of rain and a few grey days. 

 

Other than that June was reasonbly sunny, settled , quiet with temperatures regularly above average at around 16 or 17 degrees and a few spring-like days but with cool nights with at least 5 ground frosts - was scraping the car windscreen on a couple of mornings.  There were 127 hours of sunshine during the month.  Half of the 94 mm of rain recorded in June fell in 1 night, the remainder spread over around 10 days.  The 11th -17th was the coolest and most unsettled part of the winter so far with a high of 12.1 degrees on the 17th and only 8 hours of sunshine in that 7 day period.  Highest daytime max was 18.3 on the 30th. 

 

July started as June finished, mostly settled, pretty sunny and with above average daytime temps - with 19.2 degrees recorded on the 2nd,  Monday and Tuesday last week had lows of 3.1 but clearing to beautifully clear days with around 9 hours of sun each day, topping out at around 15 degrees.

 

The weather for the rest of July looks at the moment as though it is about to turn a little more seasonal in terms of rainfall.  Low pressure looks like starting to dominate, and a cloudy weekend with some rain is currently in progress, having had 73 hours of sunshine to the 12th, the totals haven't been added to this weekend.  22mm of rain so far to mid month in July. 

 

However a northerly airflow this week will lead to some showers through the week but also high daytime temperatures for winter of 17-19 degrees  until  Friday when the models are starting to show a cold outbreak may arrive from the south.  

 

The daytime max has only failed to reach 15 degrees on 3 days in July so far,a stat which looks like being maintained until the 20th. Not bad at all for winter. 

Edited July 14, 2013 by Upgrade

[Styx]

All eyes on the weekend; a significant cold outbreak with a drag of Antarctic origion air to sweep Tasmania, Victoria and southern New South Wales : low level snow, possibly heavy in the Alps, with some intriguingly low maximum temperatures forecast, Canberra 7C maximum for example...with similar values for central tablelands of NSW and parts of low lying Victoria. Tasmania may escape the bout of extreme winteriness this time around. Probably will be the third most significant cold change this century in terms of cold and snow extent, if all goes to plan!  I am thinking the only two events this century which stand out as more significant than this lineup would be August 2005 and May 2000.  

[knocker]

It’s official – Melbourne has experienced its warmest-ever July day - but the summery burst was shortlived with storms hitting the city.

 

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Scott Williams said it was an extraordinary day in Melbourne.

 

"It was our hottest ever July day at 23.3 degrees (at 2.02pm) - 10 degrees above the July average."

 

A cold front hit the city just after 3.30pm, with wind gusts of 100km/h recorded at St Kilda at 3.38pm and 102km/h on Port Phillip Bay.

 

http://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/1644842/storms-roll-into-melbourne-after-day-of-record-heat/?cs=12

[crikey]

The 1975 record for max July temp for Melbourne regional office was broken Knocker by 0.2 deg c

Records go back to 1908 

 

1975 was a la Nina year and in many places in 1975  we had record rain and floods

 

so watching the rest of this  year with interest

 

Snow levels in ski resorts are very poor at the moment in Australia but excellent in new Zealand!!

 

we have had warm moist tropical in-feeds and the cold westerly belt has been contracted well south toward Antarctica

The AO/SAM index has been positive just about al year

the polar Jetstream is weak and contracted

the sub tropical jet has been dominating

 

It is not like this every year.

 

Here is a link to  our climate data base

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/

 

 

There is some chance of  mean July monthly' temp' being broken as well some site records like highest minimum at Thredbo ski resort this week

 

Certainly winter has hardly made an appearance here and yet in the UK and other NH locations you have had the opposite with icy cold winters.

 

This is one of the mildest winters l have ever experienced here

 

Hope we are not on track for record low snow depths either.

More sub tropical in-feeds arriving next week on either side of the continent.. AArghh!

Edited July 18, 2013 by crikey

[jamesay]

After the all time July record of 23 degrees on Thursday, the cooldown has been major. Top of just over 9 degrees in Melbourne today, Saturday, with it hovering around 7 for the majority of daylight hours. Probably the coldest winters day in Melbourne for several years. A cold and wet day with sleet and snow falling above around 700 m. Another cold one tomorrow, with a slow warm up thereafter. Maybe today will have been the coldest day of the winter.

[Styx]

All eyes on the weekend; a significant cold outbreak with a drag of Antarctic origion air to sweep Tasmania, Victoria and southern New South Wales : low level snow, possibly heavy in the Alps, with some intriguingly low maximum temperatures forecast, Canberra 7C maximum for example...with similar values for central tablelands of NSW and parts of low lying Victoria. Tasmania may escape the bout of extreme winteriness this time around. Probably will be the third most significant cold change this century in terms of cold and snow extent, if all goes to plan!  I am thinking the only two events this century which stand out as more significant than this lineup would be August 2005 and May 2000.  

 

Cold outbreak lost its efferfescence at the very last moment, in terms of forecast spatial extent of low level snow and low temperatures.  Still cold and wintry in places, and the Australian Alps have had a snowfall recovery from near record lows. How long will it last? No follow up cold outbreak on the horizon, in this very mild winter.

 

Tasmania's north and east has been pummelled by rain. Almost a months worth in Hobart on Sunday, taking the July total to over 100mm for the first time in July since 1992. 100mm on Mt Wellington behind Hobart - just a couple of degrees colder, then that rain would been snow and what a sight that would have been this morning.

 

Dark and gloomy after the wettest July day in 21 years

Min: 8.6 ( average 4.9 )

10am: 9.7 ( max daily average for July 12.3 )

24hr rainfall to 9am:  43mm ( monthly average 53mm )

Edited July 22, 2013 by Styx

[Styx]

Will 2013 be the year of record low snowdepth in the Australian Alps? Reasonable question now as winter begins to draw to an end with the long range forecast looking uneventful.

 

NSW Hydro has been taking regular measurements at Spencers Creek ( 1830m ) since 1954;  used to determine snowmelt inflow into the extensive grid of hydoelectricity dams in the region.

 

The data is also used as a guide by ski enthusiasts. It is a reasonable measure to determine the state of Australian snow conditions, despite regional variations.

 

The 2013 season has been characterised by a lack of cold fronts from the Southern Ocean, strong high pressure ridging, and  incursions of moist mild air from the tropics. Very high positive temperature anomoly aswell. 

 

http://gergs.net/  Updated weekly and there are more graphs from this website.

 

Current ( peak )snow depth 2013 @ 1830m:  68cm

Lowest peak snow depth on record ( 2006 ):  85cm

Highest peak snow depth on record ( 1981 ): 361cm

Edited July 27, 2013 by Styx

[Styx]

2013 shaping up to be one of Australia’s hottest years on record

 

The last 10 months have been abnormally warm across Australia and we’ve seen a notable lack of unusually cold weather this winter. Are we heading for the hottest year on record?

The more significant records for this period include:

[*]

Australia’s hottest day on record

[*]

Australia’s hottest week on record

[*]

Australia’s hottest month on record

[*]

Australia’s hottest summer on record

[*]

Australia’s hottest September to June (10 months) on record

A feature of the last 10 months has been the persistence of unusually warm temperatures. Every calendar month since September 2012 has had temperatures 0.5°C or more above normal. The result has been a national mean temperature anomaly of +1.03°C for the past 10 months, well ahead of the previous record of +0.94 °C set in 1997-98.

Year to date Temperatures deciles for Australia showing that temperatures have been above average to record warm over nearly the whole continent in 2013. Bureau of Meteorology

Click to enlarge

 

The record heat has affected rural, regional and urban Australia alike, with many stations setting records. Hobart (41.8 °C) and Sydney (45.8 °C) both recorded their hottest days on record. The last 10 months have seen above-normal temperatures over 97% of Australia; only the Capricornia district of central Queensland has missed out.

The heat has extended to the oceans around Australia, with record warm sea-surface temperatures during summer (January and February 2013) as well as the warmest start to a calendar year (January to June) on record.

Year to date Sea Surface temperature deciles around Australia showing that temperatures have been above average to record warm in most oceans around Australia in 2013. Bureau of Meteorology

 

 30 July 2013, 5.58am EST

 

Read more:- http://theconversation.com/2013-shaping-up-to-be-one-of-australias-hottest-years-on-record-16295

 

No inclusion of the July figures in the above article; but it will be close to or exceed the national July record, no doubt about it. Have to wait till tomorrow for that to be confirmed.

Edited July 31, 2013 by Styx