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Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):

Feb 3rd - 15.7ºC/26.0ºC - SSW 54km/h @ 11:07pm - Nil

Feb 4th - 19.4ºC/26.7ºC - SSE 57km/h @ 1:18pm - 2.2mm

Feb 5th - 18.2ºC/26.6ºC - SSE 43km/h @ 7:49pm - 0.4mm

Feb 6th - 16.2ºC/25.3ºC - S 35km/h @ 10:32am - 6.0mm

Feb 7th - 17.6ºC/25.5ºC - E 30km/h @ 12:32pm - 1.2mm

Feb 8th - 16.3ºC/27.2ºC - NNE 31km/h @ 4:22pm - Nil

Feb 9th - 18.4ºC/27.6ºC - NNE 46km/h @ 3:10pm - Nil

Past week:

A week that wouldn't be out of place in mid-March. Mild to warm and moderately humid days, and mild nights (a couple borderline 'cool' nights for summer). Usually February is the most uncomfortable month of the year here, but it's got off to a pleasant start. A few onshore showers during the week delivering a little bit of rain.

Midday cam images from week, and localised shower coming ashore on the 4th:

Posted Image

This week (Feb 10th to Feb 16th):

Very warm and fine today, but it looks like more March-like / autumnal weather this week. A high near New Zealand will weaken and lose its influence tomorrow, allowing a trough over central NSW to move a bit further towards the coast. There could be enough instability to trigger an afternoon/evening shower tomorrow, otherwise it should remain fine. A high in the Southern Ocean, west of Tasmania, will start directing cooler onshore winds onto the coast on Tuesday, and the trough will move back inland losing any influence here. The high will move eastwards and into the southern Tasman Sea during Thursday where it will become slow-moving. Due to the onshore winds directed from the high pressure system, there is the chance of a shower or two from Tuesday through to Saturday.

The BOM's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 27 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 23

Edited by NorthNSW

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Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):

Feb 10th - 20.1ºC/29.8ºC - NNE 52km/h @ 1:34pm - Nil

Feb 11th - 19.1ºC/27.8ºC - E 24km/h @ 3:01pm - Nil

Feb 12th - 17.8ºC/27.2ºC - SE 61km/h @ 9:05pm - 0.4mm

Feb 13th - 19.5ºC/26.3ºC - SSE 41km/h @ 9:46am - 2.0mm

Feb 14th - 18.1ºC/23.3ºC - WSW 35km/h @ 9:57am - 13.0mm

Feb 15th - 17.9ºC/26.3ºC - WSW 26km/h @ 8:29am - 28.8mm

Feb 16th - 19.0ºC/24.7ºC - WSW 33km/h @ 6:18am - 13.2mm

Past week:

An onshore airstream became established along the coast thanks to a high moving into the Tasman Sea. A trough developed offshore during the 14th, which enhanced the onshore flow over the next couple of days bringing brief moderate to heavy falls in the occasional showers. A brief thundery shower occurred on the night of the 16th.

Midday images for the week, and an example of an onshore shower on the 15th enhanced by the presence of a trough near the coast:

Posted Image

This week (Feb 17th to Feb 23rd):

A high in the Tasman Sea will continue to direct onshore winds onto the coast at least through today and tomorrow, with occasional showers as a result, possibly briefly moderate to heavy thanks to the presence of the trough offshore. Later on tomorrow, all indications are a low pressure system will form off the southern Queensland coast in the Coral Sea and it should begin to influence our weather from Tuesday. Where it will travel after formation is still unclear, a number of scenarios have been modelled. Whether it makes landfall on the NSW coast, or stays out at sea parallel to the NSW coast, or how far away from the NSW coast the centre of the low will be, will have a large bearing on the weather we experience for the remainder of the week and could literally make the difference between 5-10mm and 50-75mm falling here between Tuesday and Saturday!

It is expected that there should be a continuation of generally mild conditions this week, overall cooler than usual for February.

The BOM's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 25 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 27

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The Bureau are confident that this low could bring significant rainfall to this part of the coast over the next few days. This afternoon they issued a Significant Media Release:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

New South Wales

Significant Weather Media Release

Issued at 3:16 pm EDT on Wednesday 20 February 2013.

New flood threat for the northern NSW coast

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning that a tropical low will bring heavy rain to the New South Wales far north coast during tomorrow (Thursday), extending south to the Hunter Valley on Friday.

The low pressure system is likely to bring both localised flash flooding and moderate to major river flooding.

Bureau of Meteorology New South Wales Regional Director, Barry Hanstrum said the potential for widespread flooding is high due to the fact that catchments are still wet from the impact of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald late last month.

"Rainfall totals may exceed 300mm over the two days in some locations. Gale force winds and damaging surf conditions are also likely. A severe weather warning and flood watch for the affected areas have been issued," Mr Hanstrum said.

NSW SES Commissioner Murray Kear is urging people to prepare now for the severe weather.

"Residents in the affected areas should keep up to date with the latest weather information and stay clear of any rivers, creeks or low-lying areas as they can be prone to flash flooding," Commissioner Kear said.

"We carried out a number of flood rescues in the last flood event in northern NSW and the majority of those rescues involved people trapped in their cars by floodwater. Its imperative that people stay clear of floodwater and if you come across a flooded road on your travels turn around or pull over and wait for the water to recede," he said.

"If you need emergency help in a flood or storm call the NSW SES on 132 500. If your situation is life-threatening call 000," Commissioner Kear added.

Link: http://www.bom.gov.a...pl?IDN38503.txt

EDIT: Probably worth noting there is still considerable differences in precipitation predicted by the main and most reliable models (GFS, EC and ACCESS-R). There was a lot of agreement early today and yesterday of a heavy rain event, but disagreement has returned today. GFS is going for a light rain event, EC a moderate rain event, and ACCESS-R a heavy rain event. The less reliable models, CMC and ACCESS-G, continue to support a heavy rain event. It should become clearer by tomorrow night about what is going to happen. Posted Image

Edited by NorthNSW

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A powerful low pressure system has wreaked havoc across the region. Floodwaters isolated the town here about 12 hours ago. Major flooding is expected along the Macleay River and with a predicted peak of near 7.3m upstream in Kempsey, which would mean the levee will be overtopped and flood the Central Business District there. Two people have been killed so far in the region, one near Port Macquarie (to the south) and near Grafton (to the north). Towns/village between here and Kempsey (including Smithtown/Gladstone) were evacuated today.

The region experienced rainfall totals as high as 415mm in 24 hours (Mt Seaview recording 415mm in the 24hrs to 9am Saturday). Most places in the region received between 120-300mm in the 24hrs to 9am Saturday. This rain follows fairly widespread cumulative totals of 100-200mm in the 9 to 10 days beforehand, and the very heavy rain from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald near the end of last month.

Winds as high as 126km/h were officially recorded in the region, with widespread winds of 90-100km/h. A reasonable amount of tree damage around town, plenty of branches down and some trees too. We lost power for several hours last night as the winds peaked. A number of residents across the district are still without power.

Seven News report from this evening (Saturday evening):

Currently being kept awake by a thunderstorm sitting a couple of kilometres off the coast.

Edited by NorthNSW

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Reading the above it really does make you realise just how benign our British weather is on the whole.

In 50 years of recording the most rain I've measured in a day is 78.1mm; I can barely imagine how it must rain to achieve 300-400mm in 24 hours, let alone have it accompanied by winds gusting to 120 km/ph.

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Reading the above it really does make you realise just how benign our British weather is on the whole.

In 50 years of recording the most rain I've measured in a day is 78.1mm; I can barely imagine how it must rain to achieve 300-400mm in 24 hours, let alone have it accompanied by winds gusting to 120 km/ph.

Pretty amazing rainfall when you think of it. Posted Image Mt Seaview is in an area where rainfall is orographically enhanced by the sudden rise in elevation from the coastal plain. There are several other areas in the region that get orographic enhancement of rain in certain weather setups (usually when rainfall is pushed ashore), including Dorrigo where the land suddenly rises from about 50m up to 750-1000m along a steep escarpment. For the year to date, Mt Seaview has already had 1384mm and Dorrigo 1139.7mm (compared to 738.2mm here for the year to date). Dorrigo is about 70kms NNW of here, and Mt Seaview is around 100kms SW of here. Dorrigo National Park is a part of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage Area, some Google images of the area: http://www.google.co...iw=1366&bih=673

Major flooding is continuing and we are still isolated today. The river at Kempsey has only just dropped a couple of centimetres below major flood level (currently 6.57m), nearly 12 hours after it peaked at 7.1m (which was a bit lower than expected), but it was still high enough to breach the one of the levees for a period of time and by reports there has only been minor flooding in the CBD, with very little damage. The main levee held, and has spared the CBD from moderate to major inundation.

News Article summarising the latest:

Thousands cut off as rivers peak

Thousands of residents on the New South Wales north coast remain cut off by floodwaters, though the worst of the crisis appears to be over. Flood warnings are in place for 15 river systems from Sydney to the Queensland border.

Two people are confirmed dead as a result of the flooding, caused by a slow-moving low pressure system that has made its way down the eastern coast over the past few days.

In Kempsey floodwaters flowed over the levee protecting the town centre after the Macleay River reached its peak. Some water made its way into low-lying areas of the CBD, but water levels in the town are now falling. The majority of businesses in the town are closed and have been sandbagged.

Low-lying areas across the Macleay Valley have been evacuated and the Kempsey Mayor Liz Campbell says there are about 70 people in the Kempsey evacuation centre. "A lot of them are visitors to town who have got stranded here so they are having a nice little visit in Kempsey town," she said.

About 10,000 people are now isolated in the Macleay Valley, including the coastal towns of Crescent Head and South West Rocks. Local dairy farmer Sue McGinn, who is also a Kempsey councillor, says her farm is cut off by floodwaters on all sides. Councillor McGinn says she is just one of many farmers who chose to ignore the evacuation order. "I imagine if you didn't need to be here, you wouldn't hang around," she said. "But unfortunately when you've got dairy cows and they need attending to, that's our job. We have to stay here and do our job."

At Clybucca, one father ignored police advice and braved the raging floodwaters in attempt to save his stranded family. Jalcin Arisi says he thought the floodwaters were receding and tried to drive through in his ute, but the car stalled. He climbed out the window and had to wade and swim through the waters before being rescued. "Police advised me to wait til it calmed down. I said 'no, my family is in danger. I've got to get to my kids," he told the ABC.

Further south in Port Macquarie, the Hastings River also broke its banks, flooding low-lying homes and businesses in parts of the CBD and along the riverfront. Areas including Settlement Point and the North Shore are isolated, and the SES expects them to remain cut off for the rest of the day. Resident Neville Wolridge says the river is an amazing sight. "The highest I've ever seen it, we've lived here a long while," he said.

Port Macquarie Hastings Mayor Peter Besseling says the floods have caused some damage to infrastructure and to the car ferry which accesses the North Shore residential area. "One of the cables from the ferry has let lose and the ferry has been moored somewhere where it wouldn't usually be moored," he said. Phil Campbell from the State Emergency Service says many people near Port Macquarie had to leave their homes for higher ground. "The NSW SES does have flood boats, eight helicopters and other resources available to make sure we can look after those people," he said.

Meanwhile residents of Grafton are dealing with the second major flood to hit the town this year. The Clarence River has reached its expected peak of 6.3 metres, about two metres shy of the level it reached less than a month ago. Although buildings have been inundated in the town and road closures are expected, no evacuations have been necessary.

Properties are expected to be isolated elsewhere in the Clarence Valley as the flood moves downstream towards Yamba.

Clarence Valley Mayor Richie Williamson has been on the Orara River today as residents are resupplied by boat, and says it is another blow. "We are already on our knees from the flood just three or four weeks ago. This has not helped," he said. "Council's infrastructure will be again be severely damaged. The primary industry areas of the sugar cane, the fishermen, the beef industry and the timber industry are going to be hit substantially."

The Hastings River peaked at 7.2 metres at Wauchope about 8:00pm yesterday, below the 1978 flood level. Further south, the Manning River at Taree is expected to peak at major flood levels at 6:00pm, but below flood levels seen in 2011. Evacuation warnings are in place for low-lying areas of Taree, Cundletown and Wingham.

The SES has received more than 4,000 calls for help across the state. About 500 of those came from Sydney, after torrential rain and strong winds tore down the coast earlier this morning. Thousands of people are without power, and dozens of homes have been damaged in Malabar, Narellan and Kiama.

Yesterday a man's body was discovered in a submerged car north of Grafton. Earlier, a 17-year-old boy was killed when he was swept into a stormwater drain at a golf course at Kew, south of Port Macquarie.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard is urging people to stay away from floodwaters. Ms Gillard says Australians have been hit hard by the two deaths in New South Wales. "Particularly the news about the loss of Luke O'Neill, the 17-year-old doing something I think we can all imagine a 17-year-old and his mates doing," she said. "Going after golf balls in floodwaters but such a dangerous thing, to see a young man lose his life like that is truly heartbreaking."

The weather also saw an XPT passenger train near Glenreagh become stranded with about 100 people on board on Friday night.

(Link: http://www.abc.net.a...04?WT.svl=news0 )

~~~~~

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):

Feb 17th - 17.6ºC/26.0ºC - SSE 44km/h @ 5:07pm - 9.0mm

Feb 18th - 17.5ºC/25.0ºC - S 26km/h @ 10:58am - 27.0mm

Feb 19th - 19.6ºC/24.4ºC - SW 30km/h @ 3:13am - 15.0mm

Feb 20th - 20.2ºC/24.7ºC - S 65km/h @ 4:50pm - 28.2mm

Feb 21st - 21.4ºC/25.0ºC - SSE 70km/h @ 2:01pm - 38.8mm

Feb 22nd - 20.2ºC/24.1ºC - S 98km/h @ 3:29pm - 131.6mm

Feb 23rd - 19.8ºC/26.5ºC - E 69km/h @ 5:19am - 28.0mm

Past week:

The wet weather persisted all week. A low developed off the southern Queensland coast earlier in the week, and hovered some distance off the coast of Brisbane / Gold Coast before moving towards the north coast of New South Wales where it made landfall late on the 22nd. The subtropical low brought widespread heavy falls to the north coast and severe winds.

This week (Feb 24th to Mar 2nd):

Humid today with a few quick showers this morning, which makes today our 13th consecutive day of rain. At 4:04pm, it was 26.0ºC with a dew point of 23.7ºC (87% humidity, yuk!).

An approaching upper level trough tonight is likely to increase showers in the onshore airstream during tomorrow with possible moderate falls. A few showers look likely on Tuesday, mainly in the morning, even though the onshore flow weakens a bit. On Wednesday, the onshore flow is expected to weaken further and the upper level trough enhancing the showers will have moved out to sea, bringing only a lingering light shower or two. Thursday could see a new trough enter the region with a shower or two possible, potentially increasing to a few showers on Friday. The trough should clear on Saturday with a mostly fine and dry day expected at this stage.

Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 26 / 25 / 26 / 26 / 25 / 26

Edited by NorthNSW

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I didn't realise there was such bad flooding in NSW. I've been in Sydney the past couple of days and we had a very wet day yesterday culminating in a thunderstorm. It's been overcast for the most part.

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I didn't realise there was such bad flooding in NSW. I've been in Sydney the past couple of days and we had a very wet day yesterday culminating in a

thunderstorm. It's been overcast for the most part.

Yer, luckily the subtropical low largely slipped inbetween Sydney and Brisbane. Would have been pretty chaotic if either metropolitan area had received a direct hit. Posted Image

Floodwaters have receded enough overnight to allow the South West Rocks Road to be reopened, so we're no longer isolated. The South West Rocks Road is open with extreme caution between here and Kempsey due to water on edges of road and severe potholing and edge damage. The Pacific Highway (the main highway connecting Sydney and Brisbane) is still closed between Kempsey and Clybucca. The smaller communities of Hat Head and Crescent Head are still isolated. For the second month in a row, the Kempsey Shire has been declared a Natural Disaster Zone (was declared a NDZ last month after Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald).

Even with a couple of days of February left, we've already had our wettest Jan-Feb period on record with 757.8mm falling (beating the previous record of 666.1mm in Jan-Feb 1959).

We've also had our third wettest summer on record with 842.4mm falling. Only as much as 5-10mm is possible before the end of the month, so it is guaranteed to be a bit shy of the second wettest summer in 1955/56 (890.8mm) and the wettest summer in 1958/59 (909.2mm).

Edited by NorthNSW

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Australia has recorded its hottest summer on record, and the driest for 9 years.

Hot summer? Yes: the hottest

This summer hasn’t just felt hot. It’s been hot. In fact, the summer of 2012-13 is now the hottest on record. Average temperatures beat the record set in the summer of 1997-98, and daytime maximum temperatures knocked over the 1982-83 record. January 2013 has been the hottest month since records began in 1910.

A significant summer, for weather and climate

There is an old adage in meteorology and climatology circles, “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you getâ€. But what does this mean?

Essentially, climate is a statistical description of weather. It describes the average weather experienced over a period of time — over either a single location, or averaged over a large region. Climate also describes how variable the weather is around those averages.

Climate also describes trends — longer-term changes in weather that are distinct from the shorter-term variability.

When it comes to climate change, there is often confusion as to when one should consider a particular meteorological event to be “just weather†or something more significant in a climatological context.

In general, the individual weather and climate events that scientists consider most significant are those that are both at the extremes of — or beyond — our historical experience, and consistent with quantifiable trends.

In that context, the summer of 2012-13 has had it all.

As far as day-to-day weather goes, numerous individual locations in Australia set daytime records for extreme heat. As far as regional averages go, records were also set for the hottest daytime temperatures averaged over the whole of Australia. Posted Image Summer Temperature Anomalies

Records were set for the duration of extreme heat at both individual locations, and for Australia as a whole. Birdsville experienced 31 successive days above 40°C and Alice Springs had 17.

When it comes to averages over time, January 2013 was the hottest month recorded in the entire observational record for Australia, stretching back to 1910 (the first year for which we can confidently estimate national temperatures).

And as of yesterday, a new record was added to the books. The summer of 2012-13 was Australia’s hottest on record. In fact, the entire six months — from September 2012 to February 2013 — were warmer than the previous high for that period, set in 2006-2007.

Average summer temperatures across Australia were 1.1°C above the 1961-1990 average, surpassing the previous record, set in 1997-98, by more than 0.1°C. Daytime maximum temperatures also set a record; they were 1.4°C above normal, and 0.2°C above the 1982-83 record.

And the most significant thing about all of these extremes is they fit with a well established trend in Australia — it’s getting hotter, and record heat is happening more often. Posted Image

Six of the hottest ten summers on record have occurred this century, and only two occurred before 1990.

Australia has warmed by nearly a degree Celsius since 1910. This is consistent with warming observed in the global atmosphere and oceans.

Indeed, an interesting feature of the heat this summer is that it occurred during a “neutral†period in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (that is, it was neither La Niña nor El Niño). Up until this year, six of the eight warmest summers, and the hottest three summers on record, occurred during El Niño years.

This essentially means that the record was consistent with warming trends, and achieved without an extra push from natural variability associated with El Niño.

The oceans surrounding Australia have also been exceptionally warm. January 2013 was the second warmest on record, following an unusually hot 2012, and a record hot 2011 for Australian-region sea surface temperatures. These temperatures are measured very differently to air temperatures over land.

Hotter in more places and for longer

The defining feature of the heat of this summer across Australia has been its extent and consistency. Not many individual places have had their hottest summer on record, but the extent of the heat has been unprecedented.

Nearly two-thirds of the continent had a summer that ranks in the top ten of the last 100 years. Only 3% of the continent (mostly in the Pilbara) has been cooler than normal. Some previous summers have been hotter in particular regions, but none have made the top ten across even half the country.

Posted Image

http://theconversati...e-hottest-12505

More tables etc : http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml

Edited by Styx

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Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):

Feb 24th - 20.9ºC/26.8ºC - N 39km/h @ 9:43am - 18.8mm

Feb 25th - 21.5ºC/26.1ºC - NE 39km/h @ 4:51am - 0.8mm

Feb 26th - 20.8ºC/26.8ºC - NE 50km/h @ 8:33am - 3.0mm

Feb 27th - 18.8ºC/26.6ºC - NE 41km/h @ 12:25pm - 1.4mm

Feb 28th - 20.0ºC/27.5ºC - NNE 52km/h @ 4:09pm - 0.2mm

Mar 1st - 22.0ºC/23.4ºC - N 31km/h @ 12:20am - 28.0mm

Mar 2nd - 19.0ºC/23.6ºC - E 39km/h @ 5:21pm - 70.2mm

Past week:

Drier than last week but still wet! The onshore flow weakened during the 25th to 28th. A trough moved into eastern NSW on the 28th, the trough produced extensive rain across much of the inland of the state thanks to being able to tap into tropical moisture. An upper low formed in the trough on the 1st, enhancing rainfall on the 2nd as it stalled in the region with heavy rain during the early evening. Temperatures were about normal for most of the week, until the two cooler days on the 1st and 2nd. Despite rain being lighter than the subtropical low last week and Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald at the end of January, it was still enough to cause renewed flooding in the river valleys, mainly minor to moderate flooding.

The river catchments are absolutely saturated. The subtropics of the East Coast would like some drier weather please!

This week (Mar 3rd to Mar 9th):

The trough has now weakened, but a moist onshore flow still persists thanks to a high off the east coast of Tasmania. Some showers should persist through today (although we seem to have dodged them all so far today), easing to a few showers tomorrow. On Tuesday, the onshore flow should weaken somewhat. From Tuesday through until Friday, there is the chance of a shower each day in a weak onshore flow, but it should remain mostly fine. The current high pressure is expected to slowly move across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand by Friday. It should be replaced by another high in the Tasman Sea, depending on the movement of this new high, the flow may possibly strengthen slightly allowing for a shower or two on Saturday.

Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 24 / 25 / 25 / 26 / 25 / 25

It looks like Mother Nature could be settling into a quieter period of weather, after an action-packed six weeks. But it can fairly dynamic at this time of year so forecasts beyond the short-term are difficult (well, I suppose a bit more predictable than the tropics at least).

I must say the Bureau did a reasonable job with their summer rainfall prediction:

Posted Image

Edit: Thought this might be of interest. Pictures from the local newspaper of last weekend's major flood here in the Kempsey / Macleay area.

Various photos from Kempsey / the Macleay of the flood (28 slides) - http://www.macleayar...amblyn/?cs=1778 (Slide 15 is taken from what will we be Australia's longest bridge when it opens as part of the Kempsey Bypass later this month or next month. It is 3.2kms long)

Kempsey town - Showing the breach of the (less important) northern levee, and the subsequent minor inundation of the CBD area (24 slides): http://www.macleayar...empsey/?cs=1778 (had the southern levee broke, there would have been moderate to major inundation of the CBD)

Update of current flood situation following the rain in the past two days.: currently causing moderate flooding at Kempsey / Lower Macleay, with the river expected to peak at 6.0m this evening and stay around that level for 12 hours.

Edited by NorthNSW

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A near historic heatwave for autumn is unfolding in southern and south east Australia. By the time we reach mid March, Hobart Adelaide and Melbourne will have a March average maximum 5-7 degrees above the monthly norm. This follows on from the hottest summer on record for the country as a whole.

The long term average temperature for these cities for March is: Hobart 20, Adelaide 26, Melbourne 24.

-----------------

The summer season was tumultorous in terms of human impact.

5 people lost their lives in bushfires ( in Victoria and Western Australia ).

10 people lost their lives in floods ( in Queensland and New South Wales ).

About 400 homes were destroyed ( 250 in bushfires, mostly in Tasmania ), and another 150 were flood detroyed ( mostly in Queensland ).

Edited by Styx

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Ferocious snowstorm hits the US

Yet another storm is sweeping across North America, bringing heavy snow to much of the east.

The snow is now clearing the Midwest, but the east coast is expecting the storm to rage for a couple of days.

By the time it clear, some parts of the northeast will have received over 50cm of snow.

Posted Image

http://www.aljazeera...0955780240.html

Wrong thread??

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Wouldn't mind some heat and dry air up here Styx, would be glad to take it off your hands. Posted Image The soil is super-saturated here and could do with some heat and/or dry air.

We had 21 consecutive raindays between February 12th and March 4th (inclusive), which brought a total of 469mm.

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Here in Victoria, Melbourne the weather couldnt have been more different than the New South Wales, and Sydney summer.

we've had about 5 days when it's rained since November and that which has fallen has been in the form of the odd thundershower.

we've had several hundred hours of sunshine each month and its been hot all the way.

we're now about to smash the record number of days in a row over 30 degrees, which currently stands at 8 ( in any month) by 2 days . It was still 30 degrees at 10 last night

All in all, a fabulous summer for those who like their summers hot and dry.

Meanwhile back in Sydney, not a single dry weekend since the middle of January and hundreds of mm of rain, loads of cloud and humidity - yuk!

Edited by Upgrade

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Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall):

Mar 3rd - 19.0ºC/25.9ºC - E 41km/h @ 9:04pm - 11.0mm

Mar 4th - 20.5ºC/24.4ºC - ESE 48km/h @ 12:16pm - 0.6mm

Mar 5th - 20.8ºC/26.1ºC - ESE 39km/h @ 4:35am - Nil

Mar 6th - 18.9ºC/25.7ºC - SE 35km/h @ 7:23pm - Nil

Mar 7th - 17.7ºC/25.8ºC - SSE 28km/h @ 11:26am - 0.4mm

Mar 8th - 17.6ºC/25.0ºC - E 30km/h @ 6:53pm - 1.0mm

Mar 9th - 18.9ºC/26.0ºC - SE 33km/h @ 3:26pm - 0.2mm

Past week:

An area of high pressure sat over the Tasman Sea all week directing a weak onshore airstream onto the coast (stronger on the 3rd) bringing cloud and the odd light shower. A mild to warm week overall.

The webcam looks like it has been put back online again after going down in that later half of February. Webcam images at midday for the past week, and an almost cloud-free sky during the late afternoon of the 6th:

Posted Image

This week (Mar 10th to Mar 16th):

A high in the Tasman Sea should continue to push a weak onshore airstream onto the coast, with a low to moderate chance of a shower until Wednesday. During Wednesday and into Thursday, the high centred over the Tasman Sea should move eastwards to New Zealand instead, causing the weak onshore flow to cease. It should be fine on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Saturday is looking mostly fine at this stage, maybe a late SE'ly surge bringing a shower or two.

It should be a warm week, with maximums slightly above average. Minimums should stay around average.

Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 27 / 26 / 26 / 27 / 26 / 28

Next update will probably come in a fortnight, as I'm going on a short holiday next weekend. Visiting relatives for a few days in Kootingal (near Tamworth). Posted Image

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Happy 100th to Canberra. Established on March 12th 1913. Posted Image

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-n22q6lIbY

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Finally the heatwave eased today in Melbourne. 9 straight days over 32 degrees and 4 of those over 35. Last night's minimum temperature was 26.5 degrees.

Looking like a few autumnal days ahead with the grand prix at the weekend looking a showery affair and Saturday when i'm going, will be taking the brolly and 21 degrees will feel cool compared to the last few days.

Even with the break, the heat is forecast to return again later next week, it really has been full on this summer time, hardly any cool changes and many days over 30 degrees in February and March.

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One last heat record falls as relief finally arrives

Melbourne's record March heatwave has broken one final record just as a cool change finally brought some relief after almost 10 days of sweltering weather.

Overnight temperatures fell to a minimum of just 26.5 degrees, making it the warmest March night since records began, edging out the previous high of 26.3 degrees set back in 1927.

The record, though, was "absolutely touch and go," before it was confirmed, said Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology. Cooling winds reached the bureau's site, near the Carlton Gardens, just before the 9am cut-off time used for record-keeping.

The new March high minimum ends a series of significant heat records for Melbourne and other regions across South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria, which endured an exceptional burst of summer-like conditions. The heatwave also follows Australia's hottest summer since standard records began in 1910.

Melbourne was expecting a top today of 29 degrees, ending a run of nine days of 30-plus weather. The series broke the previous heatwave duration of eight days, with each of the previous hot spells falling during January or February and the most recent coming in 1961.

Another record series is likely to end if the mercury falls as expected to 15 degrees tonight. Each of the past seven nights has remained above 20 degrees - beating the record of six such nights reached in January 1908 and 2009, the bureau said.

Conditions should remain significantly cooler over the next week in Melbourne, with the weather bureau predicting showers on most days and a temperature range of 12-28 before conditions start to warm again by the middle of next week.

Wide-ranging heat

Other hot spots overnight included Essendon Airport, where the mercury eased back only to 25.3, the warmest March night since records began in 1929. Inland, Bendigo had its warmest March night in at least 22 years while for Swan Hill, it was 17 years, Weatherzone said.

Hobart was also on course to record its warmest March night since 1989, with temperatures dropping to 20.5 degrees before rising again. Nearby Bushy Park in the Derwent Valley on Tuesday reached 37.3 degrees - its hottest March day in 47 years, Dr MacKellar said.

The same heatwave broke records of heat duration ranging from Mt Gambier in South Australia to Launceston in northern Tasmania and Sale in eastern Victoria.

Read more: http://www.watoday.c...l#ixzz2NTcLPt47

Many locations in South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania currently have a maximum anomoly for March in the order of 7-10C + ( March 1-13 ). Hottest March on record after the hottest summer on record is now more than probable for these states.

Edited by Styx

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Not that it covers the entire heatwave period, but can definitely see the heatwave's effects Styx. Impressive Max temp anomalies over the past week in Victoria, Tasmania and southern South Australia. The Otway Ranges area has a max temp anomaly of 12ºC+!:

Posted Image

Tropical Cyclone Sandra is currently sitting off the New South Wales coast, and is expected to affect Lord Howe Island (http://en.wikipedia....ord_Howe_Island) as a Category Two cyclone. Sandra won't bother us on the mainland, but we're overdue for a tropical cyclone impact here on the north coast, so a reminder that these TCs can survive at these latitudes. It is not common for a TC for affect here, but it does happen. The last TC to directly affect here was TC Nancy in 1990 which was a Category Two. I have marked my location as a small blue dot, to the north of Port Macquarie. This afternoon's forecast track map for TC Sandra:

Posted Image

Latest synoptic to put Sandra's position in perspective:

Posted Image

Edited by NorthNSW

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Hey NorthNSW how are you.

Do communities along the northern New South Wales coastline have a cyclone plan, in case of the rare event of a cyclone crossing the coast below the Queensland border? Such as advice and information...education campaigns...designated community shelters...etc. Or is the happenstance just too rare for all that? Do you also know of the strongest recorded wind speeds for Coffs Harbour or nearby locations due to a cyclone or extropical cyclone?

Looking like a few autumnal days ahead with the grand prix at the weekend looking a showery affair and Saturday when i'm going, will be taking the brolly and 21 degrees will feel cool compared to the last few days.

Used to be beautiful parklands in the 90s before the area became so corportised with elite sporting facilities! But I was at the grand prix in 2004 and have to admit its an exciting spectacle

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A rare Australian supercell over the goldfields Posted Image

Edited by keithlucky

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Hey Styx, I'm going well. Hope all is good down in Tassie. The risk of cyclones is infrequent enough on the north coast that there is not a designated cyclone plan in place. I imagine the SES / Emergency Services would take similar precautions to other severe events like East Coast Lows which has similar effects to a weak tropical cyclone, but the precautions would probably be intensified if we were at risk of a Category 2 or 3 cyclone. Although last month's subtropical low, was probably a good 'test run' for emergency services, with winds of 90-125km/h along the coast. Cape Byron's 126km/h gust in the subtropical low that made landfall late last month was pretty noteworthy, but I'm not aware of the max gust from a TC or Extratropical cyclone on the north coast.

~~~~

Supercells are reasonably common in Australia, more-so in New South Wales, Victoria, and the southeastern quarter of Queensland, even then a fair number go unreported thanks to Australia's generally urbanised population.

On that note, parts of northern Victoria / far southern NSW around the Yarrawonga region experienced several confirmed tornadoes this evening. Severe storms have affected parts of northern VIC and southern NSW this evening:

Already a short video uploaded of one of the tornadoes:

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=83JaolExJvU

Another video on public Facebook account:

http://www.facebook....151309246450588

Could be more videos surface over the next couple of days, although it did hit around dusk/nightfall.

Tomorrow, well technically 'today' as it is 3am (I'm a uni student so my sleeping patterns are wack, lol), severe storms are possible over central NSW. On Saturday, the possibility of severe storms looks like moving into northern NSW (but forecast high cloud could potentially inhibit convection). Haven't heard thunder for almost a month now, thanks to being more-or-less stuck in a SE'ly regime, so hoping Mother Nature brings a bit of stormy weather. The 'Severe Storm Season' traditionally comes to a finish at the end of March. Not that Mother Dearest always follows the script, e.g. Sydney Hailstorm of April 1999

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6AoXkN7tRQ

Edited by NorthNSW

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Tornadoes tear through Victorian towns

At least 20 people were taken to hospital, two in a critical condition, after two tornadoes cut a path of destruction across Victoria's north-east last night.

A severe storm moved across an area stretching from Cobram to Rutherglen just after 7.00pm (AEDT), ripping roofs from houses and uprooting trees.

Ambulance Victoria says a man in his 50s was flown to the Royal Melbourne Hospital with head, pelvic and abdominal injuries, while another man in his 50s was flown to the Alfred Hospital with serious head injuries.

Spokesman Paul Bentley says another man, who suffered spinal injuries when a tree fell on his vehicle, will be taken to Melbourne this morning.

"The sorts of injuries we've seen have ranged from serious head injuries, spinal injuries and fractures to cuts and bruising, so far paramedics have treated 20 people and taken them to hospital," he said.

"There's obviously the possibility with daylight that more people may come forward with injuries."

http://www.abc.net.a...n-towns/4587648 Edited by Styx

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Seven News story this evening on the tornadoes around the border of NSW/VIC:

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJnatLm5g2U

Footage of one of the tornadoes near Yarrawonga (from a bit of a distance):

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