Australian Weather

[Styx]

Warmest autumn in Australia

Monthly anomalies ( 1961-90 comparison )

March.....+1.7.....warmest on record

April.......+2.0.....second warmest on record

May.......+1.9.....second warmest on record

Record warmest seasons ( records since 1910 ):

Summer............2013

Autumn.............2016

Winter...............1995

Spring..............2014

Profound and undeniable change to the climate in recent years that is for sure. Every place in Australia has been impacted by environmental changes, some more than others. Will be interesting to see whether there will be a noticable pick up in ecological change sooner rather than later with these non-stop temperature records. In the short term, at least rainfall in autumn picked up in May ( near 80% wetter than the 1961-90 average ) nationally, after a very dry March and April.   

 

Edited June 1, 2016 by Styx

[Styx]

Extreme rainfall in the last 24 hours in Tasmania in a subtropical NE wind, as a low tracks slowly down the eastern seaboard. During Saturday and Sunday there was very heavy falls along the New South Wales coast with flooding. By the end of today a lot of lowland Tasmania will be under flood, especially the agricultural north west. There is a 200mm+daily reading from an AWS in Tasmania's north west - this is quite rare for any region at any time of year. There may be a higher official reading out there from a manual station. The June daily record is 267mm in 1923, a chance that record could go. It is very mild and humid, Hobart appears to have had its warmest June night on record with a low of 15.0C, 0.6C above the old record.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Australia storm kills three people, with more missing

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36442209

[Sparkiee storm]

Seen this on the news, looked quite dramatic.

[Styx]

Northern Tasmania has had some furious flooding today as rivers peak at very high levels downstream. This will undoubtedly be the costliest flood to affect Tasmania in at least four decades, and probably longer. Homes and businesses have been badly damaged, roads and bridges gone, and farmers have lost hundreds of animals. This afternoon low lying areas of Tasmania's second largest city, Launceston, are being evacuated in case levees break tonight. Since Spring we have had one weather related disaster on top of another down here. I think it's time for a record snow storm to add to the catalogue?      

[tropicbreeze]

And in the north it just continues hot and dry, quite a contrast. Although we're well into the dry season (winter) we still haven't had a below 20C night and days in the mid 30's. This morning's minimum was 24.4C, maximum today 35.0C. In a couple of days time the minimum is expected to drop to 21C but then climb back up to 23C. Days are expected to stay around 34 - 35C. Lot of people are querying what sort of a wet season we'll get after this. Last wet season was a dismal let down so its been pretty dry for a long time.

[mb018538]

Hi tropicbreeze,

Just a quick question about living in a place like NT....do you get bored of the fairly narrow range of temperatures and that there isn't much variability in the weather? Or do you like the fact that you know what you're going to get most of the time. We all moan like heck about the weather in the UK, but I guess it's a fun ride where you never really know what you're going to get. Eternal optimism and all that.

[tropicbreeze]

G'day mb018538,
I can't speak for everyone, people have their own individual responses to weather. But as to ".....do you get bored of the fairly narrow range of temperatures and that there isn't much variability in the weather?" For me the short answer is no. I spent about 4 years in Europe years ago, the usual "working holiday" thing. Some people there would ask me if it was awkward driving in Australia because we had to drive on the left all the time. Your question is a bit the same. You're attuned to different things and have different perceptions to people in other climates. Aboriginal people here have 6 seasons, Whites here tend to think in terms of a wet and a dry season with 2 transition periods between them, the Build-up and the Knock'em-down. The dry season (winter) is characterised by low night and high day temperatures. The wet season (summer) is characterised by high night temperatures and lower (lower than dry season) day temperatures.

Weather forums focused on this area do fade off in the dry season. But wet season they become very active. Second guessing cyclogenesis and cyclone tracks, storm chasing, monitoring monsoonal flooding, those sorts of things keep it from getting too boring. And of course there are lots of other things than weather to keep you interested. But all the same, it does depend on the individual.

[mb018538]

Horses for courses as you say. The wet season probably brings a bit of excitement with all the tropical features that can flirt with the area! With the top heavy arrangement of the continents in the NH, you sometimes forget that the tip of NT is under 1000 miles from the equator!

[Styx]

The Tasmanian farming community is a fairly conservative body in the main but the weather shocks of recent seasons and the increasing unpredictability of the growing and harvest seasons is starting to raise some questions. Many farmsteads have been under the same family name since colonial times...so there is a practical understanding of how the climate is changing. 

 

Quote

Tasmanian farmers demand climate change action after floods ruin farms

Some flood-affected Tasmanian farmers want to see more action on climate change, a topic which has received little debate during the election campaign

"In the winter time we had nearly a foot of snow on these flats, which is not in anyone's living history. We had the driest summer on record, we had bushfires, there were ember attacks here in the summertime and now we've had this.

"People talk about these [events being] one in 50 [or] one in 60 year occurrences, but in the last nine months we've had four.

"You can't really sit back and believe that there's been four one in 50, one in 60 year events and it's a coincidence. That's the frustration, even in an election cycle now, there's really nothing to do with climate change that gets talked about.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-14/tasmanian-farmers-ask-for-climate-action-after-floods/7506710

 

 

[Styx]

Editorial: The Mercury newspaper ( Tasmania ):

Quote

Adding up the cost for our island

EXTREME weather has cost Tasmania and Tasmanians a fortune in the past few years — emotionally, financially and environmentally.

There have been many warnings about the cost to our communities of the predicted increase in extreme weather events such as droughts and storms, however the reality of the pain potentially in store is now becoming plain to see.

The damage bill for the floods that pummelled Tasmania in the past few weeks looks likely to go beyond $100 million. With more than 110 people having to be rescued from flood waters, roof tops and stranded vehicles last week, emergency services were out in force. More than 260 properties were flooded and almost 180 suffered structural damage — and the count is expected to continue to climb.

Public infrastructure suffered significant damage from the floods, with at least 35 bridges cut or in need of repair. Roads remain closed and 48 sections are in need of repair.

The Dunalley bushfires, sparked during a horrendously long, hot spell and a day that tipped over 40C, caused $89 million worth of damage in 2013. The loss of livestock, fencing and infrastructure was heartbreaking — and expensive.

The loss figure for the long, dry spell this summer is yet to be fully revealed. The big dry contributed to the state’s energy crisis. Hydro Tasmania is playing its hand close to its chest, but the damage is certain to be in the hundreds of millions, when the cost of diesel generators and fuel is calculated.

The lack of summer and autumn rain also forced many farmers to pay for feed as pastures dried up. Some of the most famously lush and green Tasmanian landscapes turned dusty and brown. Even some dairy farmers on the rain-drenched North-West Coast were forced to hand feed stock.

The lack of rain made usually sodden Tasmanian rainforests dry enough to ignite and some of the state’s most iconic wilderness areas were ablaze. Some of these areas will take hundreds of years or more to recover if at all.

The economic, environmental and infrastructure costs of these weather events is gargantuan. If they continue to mount at this rate, the cost will inevitably be unsustainable. We will be unable to afford it if the extreme weather keeps happening so frequently.

Then there is the human cost. Tasmanian grandmother Mary Kathleen Allford, 75, died in the floods, and the search continues for Trevor Foster, who disappeared when tending his livestock, and Peter Watson, swept away when his newspaper delivery van was inundated by flood waters. Our hearts go out to their families and friends.

Premier Will Hodgman is right that Tasmanians have suffered before and will inevitably rebuild. The big question, however, is how often we will need to dig so deep to rebuild.

 

[Styx]

Snow is on the way for the Australian Alps at the end of the week which should please the skiers. It's been a warm start to winter across Australia.

Quote

It looks like the first real snow of 2016 will be on Friday, so the first official snow depth measurement for the season probably won’t be until Thursday 30 June. That’s by Snowy Hydro Limited at its Spencers Creek snow measuring course mid-way between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW, where they’ve been out probing and weighing most winter Thursdays since 1954.

Quote

...this is another very late season start. The latest-ever first snow depth for our snow season was 70.9 cm recorded on 12 July 1957. We came close to ‘beating’ that last year with just a few centimetres on the ground throughout early July, before 55.1 cm on the 16th

Quote

It’s still a bit doubtful whether there’s a significant trend towards later snow season starts in Australia. That’s unlike the trend to earlier season finishes, which is obvious...

and there are graphs to prove it. http://gergs.net/2016/06/season-starter-last/

[Styx]

Darwin 34.6C today this is a new record for June. It is 0.1C above the 1958 high. The Top End is running close to 3C above average this month, this is very marked, unusual for the tropics to deviate so far from the norm like that. I've divided the seasons into two just to be brief. There is a turnover phase between wet to dry and dry to wet..covered earlier by tropicbreeze on here.     

Darwin record monthly highs ( records since 1941 ) 

Wet season....Nov.....37.3.......2004

.....................Dec.....37.0......1976

.................... Jan......36.1......2014

.....................Feb......36.0 .....1972

....................Mar.......36.0......1942

....................Apr........36.7.....2003

Dry season. May.......36.0.....1942

....................Jun........34.6.....2016

....................Jul.........34.8.....1998

...................Aug........37.0.....1971

...................Sep........37.7.....1983

...................Oct........38.9......1982

Edited June 27, 2016 by Styx

[knocker]

Melbourne had a wet June, but Falls Creek recorded its highest rainfall in 25 years

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-had-a-wet-june-but-falls-creek-recorded-its-highest-rainfall-in-25-years-20160701-gpwrmo.html

[Styx]

Very cold outbreak for south-east Australia on Wednesday with super cold temperatures at all levels. It's the first decent cold outbreak of the season. This would usually be "a once every few years" cold weather system. Snow is forecast to 200m in Tasmania...anything settling lower around Hobart will be quite rare ( once a decade on average ), but it happened last year. Victoria will have low level snow, forecast for the hills on Melbourne's outskirts ( 300m - rare ). Snow is likely to fall in Canberra ( 600m - it will be rare if it settles ).

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Turning colder for SE Australia with some snow around

[Styx]

The cold outbreak isn't far away.  First stop South Australia. Earth Nullschool latest wind map shows Antarctic origin air about to cross land after it's Southern Ocean journey. Adelaide will get progressively colder today and it's likely the maximum will be a rare single digit reading. Lots of moisture for them and possibly widespread snow accumulation by the end of the day on the nearby hills ( to 500m ) and on the Flinders Ranges. Isolated dusting is usually the best outcome in average years but this promises to be so much more. Possibly the best snow event for South Australia since 1996 and 1998 but that won't be certain until tonight.  Tomorrow: Tasmania and Victoria. This is a terrific winter weather system for Australia even though it won't be hanging around for long.

[tropicbreeze]

First cloud cover for Darwin in ages and even some light spitting of rain in some areas. Although maximum was 30.5C and minimum 22.4C today, Darwin is predicted to have a maximum of 26C by Thursday with a minimum of 17C by Friday. By end of weekend should be getting back closer to normal.

[Styx]

Light snow cover in most Canberra suburbs this morning and flurries in the CBD which is slightly lower ( 600m ). Best snow effort for the Capital since May 2000 I think.

Snow is falling near sealevel just to the south of Hobart. We have about 4 hours of opportunity to get some of that in the city before it warms up a bit. Lots of snow in the highlands in Tasmania's west.

It didn't quite work out as planned for South Australia state yesterday.

 

 

Edited July 12, 2016 by Styx

[Styx]

Hobart city had snowflakes throughout the morning, two or three ten-minute snow showers with sunshine inbetween. There was a dusting to about 150m elevation but it wasn't cold enough for it to stick around. This century snow falling at sealevel in Hobart city has only happened three other times that I am confidently aware of : August 2015 ( early in the day ) July 2008 ( evening ) and August 2005 ( in the morning ). To get back to back years of snow falling in daylight hours and settling at the base of the hills is very rare, I don't recall that happening in my years of weather watching. Last year's falls were mostly before sunrise so there was a dusting to sealevel and much more on higher ground. It was very picturesque today but the temperature has really picked up with a warm sector filtering through. This is a nice picture from Old Beach about 10km north of the city looking at the mountain from a different angle.

 

 

 

[Styx]

Hobart is on snow watch again! Falls close to sealevel forecast for Saturday. The wind will be westerly which poses a big problem for settled falls of any significance in the sheltered south-east corner of the island. We need a direct moist southerly for a city whiteout. Nevertheless, it is very special to get two Antarctic shots in the same season, and three in back to back years. Despite the two very cold incursions this month, July is proving to be very mild overall. EC chart ( latest run ) is a standout, so I'll stick with that:

 

 

 

[knocker]

The four day sequence

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

[tropicbreeze]

Darwin had it's coldest minimum for 2 years the other day when the temperature got down to 13.8C. The cold snap also broke the record for the most days with minimums below 20C, beating the record set in 1955 of 10 days by one. A change from June when records were being broken in the other direction.

[Styx]

Here is a wrap up of today's anticipated snow event in Hobart. It did indeed snow at sealevel today, 3.4mm up to 4pm which was a combination of passing showers and sleet and not too long ago a decent 10 minute burst of wet flakes floated down on their own but disintergrated on impact. Perhaps it was just too warm at the lower levels for any observable snowline below 200m. I made sure to cast my eyes to the hills which Hobart extends up into, but I can't confirm right now at 4pm whether anything stayed on the ground below about that mark. The highest suburbs (200-300m) got something to shuffle around in but it disappeared fairly quickly. I stayed put in the city, more exciting for me to see rare flakes at sealevel. The city temperature today was mostly between 3-6C reaching a high of 7.7C ( 5 below average ). 

Much further north warm air has been dragged along the eastern seaboard ahead of this weather feature but it will be nothing more than a cooler dry airmass once it reaches large areas that have been very warm for a few days . Brisbane had its equal warmest July day on record with 29.1C today ( records since 1887 ). Yesterday Sydney had it's second warmest July day with 25.7C ( records since 1859 ). Perhaps the bigger story in the country is the near historic warmth on a large section of the coast rather than what happened today way down south.

[Weather-history]

This brings back memories of these type of storms that can happen around Perth. From 14th November 2015