Australian Weather

[Chris W]

Ceduna, SA just hit its record all-time high temperature of 48.4C according to BOM SA on Twitter. That’s a coastal town.

 

This side of the ditch, 33.4C in Christchurch today but looking at mid-thirties early next week.

[Styx]

On 22/01/2019 at 22:14, Summer Sun said:

Low 20s in Perth on Thursday is substantially below average for this time of year they're normally around the low 30s

It really is cool for them but some distance from summertime records. Perth will end up with a pair of days near 22c ( 9 below average ). They have a brisk southerly flow from a deepening low which formed over waters near the south-west coast, an extension of the inland trough which extended all the way south. I see there's been some daily rainfall records south of Perth too. It is this activity and pressure in the west which is drawing down the core of the extreme heat on the eastern side, toward the coast.

[Styx]

7 hours ago, Chris W said:

Ceduna, SA just hit its record all-time high temperature of 48.4C according to BOM SA on Twitter. That’s a coastal town.

 

This side of the ditch, 33.4C in Christchurch today but looking at mid-thirties early next week.

I think that may be the hottest temperature every recorded along the entire stretch of Australia's southern coastline. Not completely sure about that but seems plausible. Only coastal stretch in Australia that normally bakes like that is central Western Australia, but infrequently. BoM still forecasting 45c for Adelaide on Thursday and a South Australia state high of 49, then cooling down.

Friday is dangerous for Tasmania and Victoria in regards to bushfire.   

[Stef]

Looks like Adelaide just broke its all time record.

 

[Styx]

Wow a major heat day for South Australia, probably exceeding expectations! Reports say one-third of stations in the state potentially have a new record high. I snapped the latest temperatures from Meteye a few moments ago.  As of 3:30pm local time temperatures are still rising but a cool wind change is making its way in from the west. Adelaide has a new record of 46.6 and the state high is 49.1 so far.  Temperatures are higher than forecast in Victoria and western New South Wales too so going to be interesting to see if tomorrow's maximums are revised upward. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Styx

[Summer Sun]

 

[Styx]

'Dry lightning, windy and temperatures in the high 30's' an ominous but intriguing weather day ahead for Hobart and much of Tasmania. Not sure to what extent the media and fire authorities are ramping up the bushfire threat (  for commercial ratings and public vigilance ) - because we have had these warnings before - but under the worse case scenario, things don't look good today.   Potential property losses will be to towns and villages to the south of Hobart from existing fire fronts, if it unfortunately comes down to that.   Max temperatures shouldn't go near the Tasmania and Hobart record of 42 but what a spectacular warm month this will turn out to be.

Victoria on the other hand might do something no other state or territory has managed to do this summer and that is to pull off a new monthly extreme.  Forecast highs are 47 for a number of towns in the north-west pretty much equaling the January Victoria record of 47.2 in 1939. Melbourne has a forecast maximum of 44c. Top 5 January rank for them in records dating back to 1856.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Styx

[Styx]

Aside from the continuing environmental impacts there were no human losses from bushfire in Tasmania today. The worst aspect is the burning of rain forest and alpine vegetation which hasn't evolved to easily regenerate after fire. We got a state maximum of 40.1 today and a city maximum of 37.9. These are the sorts of extremes we get every few years. Victoria may have a new record for January with a maximum of 47.5 in the north-west of that state and another manual reading site yet to report, that very likely went higher. Melbourne didn't quite manage to reach 44c. I think this particular event is over but maybe a return to extreme temperatures near mid February.

[Styx]

But wait there's more...Borrona Downs Station in the far north-west corner of NSW has broken the Australia minimum temperature record with an official minimum of 36.6c to 9am. Previous Australia record 35.9 on the 17th of this month, and before that, 35.5. 

[Styx]

Severe bushfire threat unfolding south of Hobart . A lot of towns and villages under imminent threat. Shocking smoke pollution in Hobart too - visibility down to a few hundred metres.  
 

 

[Styx]

Plenty more maps and analysis on the BoM website but this stark graph of January shows how dramatic the month was for temperature in Australia. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml

Edited February 1, 2019 by Styx

[Summer Sun]

 

[matty40s]

Swiftly followed up by monsoon rains in Queens land. ...

Flooding and rain after heatwavei

[Styx]

 

 

 

[Styx]

Tasmania fire conditions are much better. Many of the fire fronts have lost their intensity as the weather has turned favorable. Some excellent fire fighting expertise has also come into play. Humid rain on Wednesday brought 15-30 mm and the next 10 days will be mild with scattered showers. The map shows how much land - mainly forest - has been lost altogether. It is the biggest fire incident in Tasmania since 1967 which was the largest conflagration of the twentieth century. The worst aspect is the loss of wet forest and highland environments. David Bowman has researched this and found a changing ecological makeup in Tasmania's normally wet and cool south-west, following a number of fires in recent times caused by dry lightning.  This event though is big.  The map comes from the link below, problem is, it hasn't been updated for a couple of days

https://ewen.carto.com/viz/2f45bbfa-eae3-4e86-baed-3f29d2b50b06/embed_map?fbclid=IwAR20k9UCQcj1kyvLHeB3b_dAx6SiARFRogxau81k9zF3s8ILIx4plqlrdn8   

[Summer Sun]

Some slight heat relief for parts of south-eastern Australia over the next 10 days it looks like it'll be western Australia now where the mean focus of heat will be

 

[Styx]

Increasing chance of Tropical Cyclone Omar crossing the southern Queensland coast, near Brisbane, in a few days time. It would be rare for a cyclone to make landfall that far south, and potentially very damaging in that built up part of the state. Even if it stays out at sea and is eventually steered south, there will be considerable beach and coastal erosion with big swells down the eastern seaboard. It is a big system right now.

[Styx]

Good news about the Tasmania fires and the environmental consequences.  

"..Contrary to widespread concerns the fires did not have a devastating impact on iconic Gondwanan vegetation in the TWWHA ( Tasmania World Heritage Area ). Preliminary analyses suggest overall only 3.2% of the area burnt was in rainforest and 4% was highland treeless vegetation (although much of this is fire-adapted)."

Brief report from fire ecology expert here: https://firecentre.org.au/2019-tasmanian-fires-impacts-and-management-lessons/ . 

  

[Styx]

Record heat to start March in Tasmania.  A forecast maximum of 38c on March 2, on the leeward side of the Central Plateau into the agricultural flat lands of the south-east. Hobart on the south-east coast has a forecast maximum of 37 ( 17 above average ). The March record for Tasmania is 38.0 ( 2008 ) and 37.3 in Hobart ( 2008 and 1940 ). Very dry north-west wind, not windy, but the fire fronts are likely to be whipped up again in this heat/low humidity situation. Up until now everything has been handled with fire smoldering at low intensity level 

[knocker]

 

Edited March 1, 2019 by knocker

[Styx]

Hobart smashed its March temperature record today with a high of 39.1c ( 19 above average ). A +1.8c leap from the 2008 and 1940 record and our hottest temperature for six years. A completely sunny but intolerable day to be outdoors with a moderate breeze and relative humidity of  just 10%. The Tasmania March record of 38.0 was surpassed at five other locations. Cape Bruny ( on Bruny Island ) in the south-east was the hottest at 39.7c.  That is an all-time record for that location and +4.0c up on their previous extreme for March, in almost a century of records. There were many individual records today but that one is the standout. Cooling down from tomorrow but not hitting "average" until the end of the week.

 

 

Edited March 2, 2019 by Styx

[jamesay]

It’s astonishing the level and rate at which heat records are being smashed at the moment. genuinely scary and it just makes you wonder what the future holds and how quickly things seem to be developing. 

hot weather in Aus = not a surprise

BUT these extreme days and widespread, extended nature of the heat  and constant record breaking is unusual and alarming.

loads and loads of records smashed this year  and not just by a fraction of a degree here and there. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the switch in the inter decadal Pacific Oscillation, back in 2014, to the phase that augments our warming signal has coupled with a rapid drop off in Chineses 'dimming' over regions of the Pacific basin further amplifying the warming potential.

We have been doubly spared since the late 90's by a pall of smoke of China dimming out energy available at the top of our atmosphere whilst the I.P.O. flipped negative so lowering temps across its area of influence.

That period of grace is now over!

[jamesay]

Very interested to hear that gray wolf, I didn’t realise China had cleaned up its act with regard to atmospheric air pollution or that there was less dimming over there. 

Have only lived in Oz 7 years but this is the driest and warmest I’ve seen it and every year we seem to break records, it really seems like the climate is drying in south eastern Australia. 

 

[Styx]

Rinse and repeat...

According to the BoM database Roebourne has records since 1957. It is in the Pilbara region in north-west Western Australia. Other stations in the Pilbara also broke their respective March records yesterday. These included Marble Bar 47.4 ( +0.7...records since 1901 ) and Port Hedland on the coast 47.0 ( +1.1...records since 1913 ). This arid area usually picks up monsoonal rain from time to time during the wet season but it has been very dry for months ramping up heatwave events.