Australian Weather

[Styx]

Warmest October on record here completely wiping out the three-month cold anomaly we have just had, can you believe it. The possibility of a weak La Nina developing may benefit Tasmania's eastern at some point which has been extremely dry for nearly half a year. With summer approaching the bushfire index threat is very high in susceptible areas. The Tasmanian east coast town of Swansea for example has had just 50mm total over the last 5 months.  

[Weather-history]

A vicious storm hits Kalgoorlie, WA

 

[Styx]

Unprecedented out-of-summer heatwave in Tasmania with multiple days between mid 20s and very low 30s. So no extremes - just never before felt persistent warmth. A rare stagnant high over the Tasman Sea is drawing down air from north Queensland. Hobart is guaranteed 6 days in a row over 25c, even the summertime record is only 7, achieved only once, in 1895. The heat in the second half of the month is significant enough to smash the November average maximum and mean temperature records, the final figures may be a shock. This follows on from the  warmest October on record here. There have never been two record warm months in a row.

Edited November 21, 2017 by Styx

[Styx]

...and this is what the record warm spell looks like so far, in Hobart. The next 7 days is forecast to be 31,29,25,25,28,24,22. At the end of the month, we'll be averaging round 22.4c  for the month , which breaks the existing November average by almost a full degree.

https://twitter.com/FFaztastic/status/932833067340783616

Anyway, hope you lot get the snow
 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2017 by Styx

[Styx]

 

Sixth day in a row above 25c in Hobart today ( it reached 30.6c...the November average is 19c ). A seventh day will tie with the 1895 summer record. BoM is forecasting a 9 day stretch. Just a reminder that we are still officially in spring, and spring in Tasmania is normally defined by cool, changeable conditions. This uninterrupted warmth is great but very unsettling. November will finish with an maximum anomaly nearly +4c above the long-term average....nothing like that has ever happened before in any month.

[knocker]

Global hot spot: Exceptional heat pushes up ocean temperatures off Australia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/global-hot-spot-exceptional-heat-pushes-up-ocean-temperatures-off-australia-20171125-gzsrey.html

[Summer Sun]

38c/100F in Adelaide yesterday temperatures falling ahead of the 2nd test starting this weekend with a range from the high teens to low 20's expected

Edited November 29, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Styx]

Stagnant heat over south-east Australia to be replaced by flooding rains from Friday. The state of Victoria may experience major flooding. In Tasmania, the falls won't be big enough to be a problem, but they are going to be welcome, especially in the east. After the rain moves off, its quite a cool start to summer for a while.

[Styx]

A 'massive' flooding event now forecast for Victoria, including Melbourne. "We are going to have major, major, major flooding probably right around this state.." : BoM spokesman. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-30/victoria-weather-heavy-rains-floods-forecast/9209902

 

 

 

[Styx]

Heavy snow in central Tasmania over the weekend ( elevation 900-1100m ). There were reports of 30-40cm ( 10-15 inches ). Snow will occasionally settle during the summer months in highland areas but I have never seen so much snow in the summertime before. The police closed roads, came to the aid of motorists and power was knocked out to settlements in the area. 

  

Everywhere else at lower levels had consistent rain for 36-48 hours, with bigger falls in the east and south-east, as an intense low pressure system ( 980HpA ) remained close to stationary off the north-east coast, also bringing gales. Hobarts maximum was 13c on Saturday and 11c on Sunday with almost 100mm falling over a 3 day period and very windy. 

 

[Styx]

Very hot weather moving into the settled inland parts of south-east Australia on Tuesday. Canberra's forecast maximum of 39c will go close to the December record ( 39.2c  in almost 80 years of continuous records ). The western side of Sydney has forecast temperatures of 43c and 44c ( the highest December reading for the Greater Sydney area is 43.9c , but record keeping has been fragmented on this side of Sydney over the last 80 years ).  The harbour suburbs and the CBD will get the usual seabreeze relief. 

[Styx]

Canberra fell well short of its December record today - presumably too cloudy ahead of the trough line. Greater Sydney had a maximum of 44.1c ( at Penrith Lakes 35 miles west of the CBD : Pic ). This is a growing satellite city of Sydney, the artificial lake area is parkland and reforested grounds. I don't know it personally but looks like a nice place to live but too prone to outback heat bursts ( 40-47c ). They have only had records since 1995 though but a record is a record..  Richmond,  to the north west of the CBD had the next highest maximum of 42.9c. It has a longer record set, it fell short of beating its old mark by a degree.

 

Penrith Lakes

Edited December 19, 2017 by Styx

[Styx]

Here is the Christmas Day temperature forecast for the Hobart area. Looking comfortable this year. Dry, partly sunny and cool. I have placed the forecasts over a topographic map I found from NASA. Enjoy!

[Styx]

Another warm year in Australia in 2017 difficult to envisage circumstances ever changing to draw the averages back down to what they used to be.  Nationally averaged rainfall close to average... Western Australia benefited from an active, tropical Indian Ocean. The sea surface temperature hasn't yet been collated but interest there, especially for the Tasman Sea,  a big trajectory upwards, Tasman Sea particularly may break last years big record. Interestingly here in Tasmania, we were level pegging with the 1961-90 temperature average up until September - then the second warmest October, warmest November and second warmest December finished things off escalating the yearly average  substantially.

  

 

[Styx]

Nasty bushfire weather in south-east Australia this weekend with strong winds and extreme heat reaching the coastal fringe for the first time this summer. Melbourne 42c, Adelaide 41c, Hobart 34c on Saturday then close to 40c in Canberra and Sydney city on Sunday. 

 

[Summer Sun]

Beeb showing 41c in Melbourne Saturday and 21c on Sunday a massive drop in 24hrs

[Styx]

Sydney 43.4c today before harbour breezes and Canberra 40.2c  - fourth hottest January days ( records since 1859 in Sydney and 1939 in Canberra ). In suburban and outlying parts of Sydney there were numerous readings of 45s, a couple of 46s and a high of 47.1c at Penrith Lakes.  Yesterday,  41.7c in Melbourne and 42.3c in Adelaide ( well off their record highs ). It does seem lucky to me that firefighters had a relatively quiet weekend, a couple of solid heat days.

On 1/5/2018 at 21:03, Summer Sun said:

Beeb showing 41c in Melbourne Saturday and 21c on Sunday a massive drop in 24hrs

41.7c to 20.7c ( to 3pm )...  Bass Strait air conditioner effect .. 

[knocker]

 

[Styx]

Perth had ten times its average January rainfall overnight, from the remnants of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Joyce which crossed the central Western Australian coast last week as a weak Category 1 system.  97mm in the city up to 9am Tuesday, January average 9.7mm. It is the second wettest January day ( and so far the third wettest January overall ) since rain records began in 1876. Perhaps another 20mm top up on Tuesday. 

Perth Wettest Januarys ( records since 1876 ):

1.....139mm in 2000

2.....115mm in 1982

3.....104mm in 2017 ( up to 9am the 16th )

4.....55.1mm in 1879

5.....51.4mm in 1990

[Styx]

Australia had its third warmest January,  it's been a while since the national monthly rank was so high  

Tasmania alone is going through something more astonishing: Second warmest October, warmest November, second warmest December and now the second warmest January.   Hobart and other individual places have racked up 2 or 3 record warm months out of the last 4 . Never seen anything like it. The Southern Ocean, Tasmania's biggest climate driver, appears to have settled into a deep slumber with settled continental warmth taking over. This is elevating sea temperatures,  especially on the eastern side.   

 

 

Edited February 1, 2018 by Styx

[tropicbreeze]

January saw a strengthening of the monsoon in the north of the country with record rainfall, particularly in the Top End of the NT. A tropical low developed  in the Borroloola area of the Top End and slowly drifted westwards. Although it remained inland it wasn't far from the coast and intensified to 986hPa. The greatest rainfall totals were in the western Top End of the NT. For the month of January my place recorded 1028 mm, most of that falling in the last half of the month. Friends at Darwin River recorded 1090 mm. Some remote communities were evacuated as rising flood waters bring increased risk of crocodile attack

 

At the end of the month the tropical low moved further inland in Western Australia and weakened. Together with weakening cross equatorial flow this has dissipated the monsoon trough bringing mostly clear skies and sunny weather.

 

[Styx]

Third cyclone of the season due to cross an unpopulated stretch of the Western Australia coast tonight...  all three cyclones this summer have been low scale with land crossings in roughly the same area, but rainfall totals have been large. The more populated Queensland coastline has been comparatively quiet for 40 years, but when a cyclone has come in there in recent times, they have packed a punch. Interesting to see what happens over the next couple of months. It has been a quiet summer in Australia for big weather events, especially considering what the last few years have delivered.

 

 

 

 

[Styx]

No intense heatwaves - or a high number of intensely hot days - for the major Australian centres this summer.  I have used the 40 degrees Celcius mark as the yardstick, it's also a figure that gets  a greater amount of media attention down here. The numbers are for the main city sites which have a fairly long recordset. Suburban and outer Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide would have had a higher tally compared to the city sites which are more susceptible to sea breezes. Outer Perth managed a couple of 40 degree days too, even though the Perth city didn't quite manage to get there. 

  

  

[Styx]

BoM declares it the second warmest summer on record for Australia "...summer's exceptional warmth was more the result of prolonged, widespread, low-intensity warm weather rather than individual heatwaves".  Western Australia looks cool but it's a bit deceptive ranking 38th coolest summer in 118 years. 

Temperature Anomalies Compared To 1961-90:

Dec....+1.1

Jan...+1.3  Third warmest

Feb...+0.6

Near average rainfall across Australia .. Western Australia 10th wettest. Queensland was one-third down from average but no top 10 ranking for them.

Edited March 1, 2018 by Styx

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Marcus has developed off the coast north east of Darwin. Currently moving eastward it's expected to turn to the south west and move over Darwin tomorrow (Saturday). Although environmental conditions are favourable for development the recent passage of an intense high pressure ridge along the south of the continent pushed a mass of dry air into the area. While in proximity to land and with the dry air, Marcus is expected to stay at cat 1 strength until it moves out into the Indian Ocean at which stage rapid intensification is likely.