Australian Weather

[Styx]

An intensifying cyclone is approaching Queensland - due to make landfall near Townsville ( pop 175,000 ) on Tuesday morning. Only two other cyclones have crossed the coast this season in remote areas, at category 1/2.

 

 

[knocker]

 

[Styx]

No one is talking about the existential threat to the coral reef along that stretch of coastline;  already in a weakened state following another mass bleaching event. Huge swells will surely make much more of it vulnerable. 

A mid Tuesday morning landfall happens to coincide with a high tide...notable storm surge possible.

The latest cyclone track map from the BOM ( released 1.5 hours ago ) spares Townsville from a potential destructive event. BOM is updating every 3 hours. Other weather models are not as kind, showing Debbie making landfall closer to Townsville. I see that the town of Ayr has a population of near 10,000 with some fairly basic standard homes. If the outlook stays the same the situation looks dire for property damage/losses. 

 

 

 

[Styx]

Get Out Now screams the front page of Queensland's major daily newspaper this morning. With 24 hours to go and few updated tracking maps later, hardly anything has changed from the BOM perspective...intense cyclone Debbie with wind speeds of 230km/143miles ph is heading straight for the town of Ayr.

[Styx]

Latest map issued at 2am AEST:

Updates every hour: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Good morning everyone. I have gotten up early this morning to see the latest developments. In the last 18 hours or so everything has shifted south. Severe cyclone Debbie is heading for the town of Bowen ( population 10,000 ), with the deeper red circle graphic indicating the potential for very destructive winds, which extends south to the resort island of Hamilton Island ( population 1000 + 600 tourists ) and Airlie Beach ( population 8,000 ). The 12 noon landfall is 1am British time Tuesday. According to the BOM this will be a high end category 4. The town of Bowen in particular will get a real battering.

I don't have anything more useful to say because every media outlet including social media is all over it.

Debbie is being compared to Yasi but there is not much mention of Marcia, which was a category 5 cyclone crossing just south of the above locations in February 2015. 350 homes were destroyed by her and the damage bill was something like $800 million. 

It would be expected that most residents who live in structurally vulnerable homes are out of there now or have gone to local shelter.

[Lowestoft Weather]

Live streaming

Edited March 27, 2017 by Gavin Plummer

[Lowestoft Weather]

Hamilton Island, Queensland, Australia bearing the brunt of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at present!!

Proserpine, Queensland, Australia also getting some damaging winds!! The last 15 seconds of this one minute footage shows the strength of this cyclone.

[tropicbreeze]

Hamilton Island had it's highest wind gust of 263 km/h at 10:25 AM local time.  The eye appears to have now reached the coast around Airlie Beach, land friction should be affecting the system as about half of it will be over land. The latest BOM technical bulletin (0117 UTC 28/03/2017) gives it a DT 5.5 which would have to make it closer to a low end cat. 4 with a central pressure of 943 hPa. They also have it moving southwest at 9 km/h with sustained wind 185 km/h gusting to 260 km/h.

[knocker]

Cyclone Debbie arrives in Queensland

Cyclone Debbie made landfall over the coast of Queensland, Australia in the early hours of this morning UK time bringing high winds, storm surge and heavy rain. Queensland is no stranger to strong cyclones having been struck by Cyclones Marcia and Nathan in 2015, Cyclone Ita in 2014 and Cyclone Yasi in 2011.

Debbie formed late last week in the Coral Sea and was the first cyclone to form close to the eastern side of Australia in what has been a very quiet season across the southern hemisphere as a whole. Debbie was strengthened throughout the day yesterday as it started to move across the Whitsunday Islands. When just a little distance offshore, the cyclone’s forward motion slowed resulting in many hours of extremely strong winds over some of the islands.

The observing station at Hamilton Island experienced sustained winds of hurricane force (74 mph or greater) for almost 12 hours and a peak wind gust of 163 mph. This location was extremely exposed to the strong winds on the southern flank of the cyclone and as Debbie came ashore over mainland Queensland winds were not as strong as this, although from reports being received were still very damaging.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/03/28/cyclone-debbie-arrives-in-queensland/

[Styx]

The sun will be up shortly so helicopters will be up in the sky doing the first aerial shots. Emergency vehicles will be out doing the first check up on residences and an initial property damage assessment. Luckily the eye came in south of Bowen, it would have been worse if came in there. 

[Lowestoft Weather]

This footage illustrates just how powerful and dangerous Cyclone Debbie was!!!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Live updates from the Brisbane Times website:

 

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/cyclone-debbie-live-updates-queensland-cleans-up-as-storm-moves-inland-20170328-gv8l1o.html

[Styx]

News coming in this morning that police fear multiple people may have drowned in flood waters in north east NSW, as ex-tropical cyclone Debbie causes major flooding and evacuations in south-east Queensland,  into north-east NSW. 24 hour rainfall totals exceeding 300mm.

[Styx]

Fresh from the BOM, third warmest March on record for Australia

 

[Mark wheeler]

Whilst the east coast has suffered from cyclone Debbie , WA has been fine and a lot more warmer and sunnier than previous weeks , some of the pics below are mainly perth but the last ones are esperance where I am currently, approx an 8 hour drive away on the south coast.

[tropicbreeze]

During the past week TC Ernie formed in the Indian Ocean off the coast of WA. In 24 hours the system went from a tropical low to a category 4 cyclone, and in another 12 hours became a category 5. That's the fastest intensification of any tropical cyclone in the Australian region. Fortunately Ernie, with wind gusts to 315 kph, stayed off the coast.

More recently another tropical low formed in the Arafura Sea just north of Darwin and drifted slowly southwards. However, it didn't intensify rapidly despite very warm sea surface temperatures due to very high vertical wind shear. It's now reached Cobourg Peninsula and isn't expected to reach tropical cyclone strength until it moves out into the Timor Sea. Meantime the north coast of the NT is experiencing squally heavy rains. In 24 hours Warruwi had 222.4 mm.

[Styx]

4 hours ago, tropicbreeze said:

During the past week TC Ernie formed in the Indian Ocean off the coast of WA. In 24 hours the system went from a tropical low to a category 4 cyclone, and in another 12 hours became a category 5. That's the fastest intensification of any tropical cyclone in the Australian region. Fortunately Ernie, with wind gusts to 315 kph, stayed off the coast.

More recently another tropical low formed in the Arafura Sea just north of Darwin and drifted slowly southwards. However, it didn't intensify rapidly despite very warm sea surface temperatures due to very high vertical wind shear. It's now reached Cobourg Peninsula and isn't expected to reach tropical cyclone strength until it moves out into the Timor Sea. Meantime the north coast of the NT is experiencing squally heavy rains. In 24 hours Warruwi had 222.4 mm.

Substantially cold too. Darwin had a maximum of 21.5c today, the monthly average is 32c and it doesn't deviate much from that day to day. At 7:30pm this evening it is 19c.  The April record low maximum is 24.6c in 1954 so it seems highly likely that another rare cold weather record will be set at 9am tomorrow, when the temperature day ends.

[Mark wheeler]

5 hours ago, tropicbreeze said:

 

During the past week TC Ernie formed in the Indian Ocean off the coast of WA. In 24 hours the system went from a tropical low to a category 4 cyclone, and in another 12 hours became a category 5. That's the fastest intensification of any tropical cyclone in the Australian region. Fortunately Ernie, with wind gusts to 315 kph, stayed off the coast.

 

Boy , I didn't realise a cyclone was so close to the coast of WA  looking back at the radar although not to close to where we are staying . We have had a great holiday and sadly are returning to Blighty soon . We have had glorious weather with temperatures between 25c and 33c throughout , 

Edited April 11, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[tropicbreeze]

Can't believe how cold it is. Don't ever remember feeling as cold as this with a tropical low or cyclone around. I'd like to know how the temp can plummet so much.

The tropical low is now over Van Dieman Gulf and is expected to take 12 hours for the short distance to be directly over Darwin in the morning. That coincides with high tide which, being a spring tide, will be over 7 metres. The low will be adding a bit to that.  The rain has been easing with nightfall.  

Mark, Ernie was well off the coast but still in the western region. There was little effect along the coastline so no watches or warnings were issued.

[tropicbreeze]

Here's the reason for the record low temperatures in Darwin yesterday. According to BOM there was strong dry south east wind blowing into the system. The heavy rain falling through it caused evaporative cooling. Basically a huge natural evaporative airconditioner. It's a very rare occurrence. Ironically, evaporative airconditioners aren't used in the tropics as they're ineffective.

[Styx]

What an incredible cold weather record for Darwin. tropicbreeze I found that background explanation really interesting. The official Tuesday maximum was 21.9c which beats the previous April record by 2.7c. The Darwin weather site has been reporting since 1941. Darwin has only had two colder days, but in the winter ( or the tropical dry season ). They were 21.1c and 21.8c in July 1968. And taking a look at the steamy tropical season alone which is now winding down, the previous record low maximum was 24.0c in December 1954.

Lowest daily maximum in April for Darwin ( records since 1941 ):

1......21.9......2017

2......24.6......1954

3......24.8......1998

4......25.2......1956

5......25.4......1959 and 1948

------------------------------------------------

Darwin became the third of Australia's 8 major cities to break a cold weather record this year. I am not sure whether that has happened before. In February, Perth recorded it's coldest day for that month and Canberra it's coldest February temperature.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2017 by Styx

[tropicbreeze]

Officially the last day of our dry season and it's very much like the dry season already. However, over the past week a tropical low developed off the West Papua coast and moved across the Arafura Sea. As it moved into the Timor Sea it intensified rapidly into a category 3 cyclone and was named TC Frances. Vertical wind shear was around 10 to 15 knots with sea surface temperatures 30-31C and strong upper outflow. A subtropical ridge over the continent kept the system off the coast. The surge of dry air from the ridge began to wrap into the system and Frances dissipated very rapidly. Although I only got 3 mm rain from the system, it was far more generous with the Tiwi Islands where Pirlangimpi got 233 mm.

Extended models are showing some activity around the Solomon Sea and with the characteristic strong ridging this time of year there's always a possibility of it being steered across the top of Australia perhaps bringing another wet season burst. Happened in late April 11 years ago when TC Monica came through as a high end category 5.

[Styx]

An unusually think fog settled over Brisbane this morning. These pictures are courtesy of Channel 9

In Tasmania autumn is ending dry, settled and cool. March was exceptionally warm and April was very mild, so at least the temperature anomaly is coming down. The thing I am noticing is the lack of snow this autumn.  A dusting of snow has covered the mountains to about the 1000m level for a few hours on just three separate days. That's about as bad as it gets. So no action from the Southern Ocean injecting sub Antarctic air over us...yet.

Edited May 15, 2017 by Styx

[Weather-history]

 

[tropicbreeze]

In the north west of the continent the dry season has really sunk its teeth in. Broome has had several days with winds coming out of the desert and dropping the minimum temperatures into the low teens. Maximums have mainly been in the low 30's with relative humidity dropping into the 20's.

North west of the Northern Territory after a few cool mornings has been mainly hot with mild mornings. My place yesterday maximum was 36.1C, minimum this morning was 20.8C with relative humidity bottoming out at 24%. Darwin itself (airport) had a maximum of 34.5C yesterday and minimum of 22.5C this morning, relative humidity bottoming out at 23%.

The north east of the Northern Territory however, has been milder with higher humidity and the odd sprinkle of rain.