Australian Weather

[Styx]

A multi-week heatwave over eastern Australia is intensifying and significant daily temperature records for February are imminent. The Queensland state record of 46.5C will be challenged with four days of expected maximums of 46 and 47C at Birdsville this week. On the weekend the hottest air will spread across most of New South Wales with record or near record February maximums for many towns away from the coast. Canberra for instance ( at 600m elevation ) has a forecast maximum of 40 and 41C. That is in the top 5% decile reading of extreme temperature ever measured. Without any wind, the fire threat will be minimised. Australia has gotten off lightly this summer. The map is January's maximum anomaly 

[mike57]

I have a cousin in Australia, (Queensland) and he has been commenting on the heat. Normally it doesn't bother him, but even he is finding it unpleasant.

[Styx]

Big heat today. The state of South Australia equaled it's February record,  48.2C at Tarcoola ( about 500 miles to the north of Adelaide ). Official state records since 1910. Extreme heat to move into New South Wales tomorrow, climaxing on Saturday. The New South Wales state record will be hard to crack but the BOM are forecasting monthly heat records to fall at many locations.

Today's heat chart with Tarcoola pegged

South Australia's February records prior to today's reading

 

   

Edited February 9, 2017 by Styx

[Styx]

Here is a story that has gone under the radar but I think it's fair to mention it. A tropical low off the Western Australian coast has brought floods to the central western coast, and a stream of middle level cloud and rain to the south west corner. Perths maximum today to 5pm is 17.4C, 15 below average and more than 2 degrees under the existing February record. It's likely the record won't hold before 9am Friday, but it could. Other places in the south-west had maximums between 13 and 16. One or two of those places have a good chance of being ranked between about 4 and 10 on coldest maximums ever recorded in Western Australia.      

[BornFromTheVoid]

Remarkable heat (and cool temps), thanks for the updates. I like how pale green is used to depict 27-30C temperatures on the heat chart!

Edited February 9, 2017 by BornFromTheVoid

[Styx]

17 hours ago, Styx said:

Here is a story that has gone under the radar but I think it's fair to mention it. A tropical low off the Western Australian coast has brought floods to the central western coast, and a stream of middle level cloud and rain to the south west corner. Perths maximum today to 5pm is 17.4C, 15 below average and more than 2 degrees under the existing February record. It's likely the record won't hold before 9am Friday, but it could. Other places in the south-west had maximums between 13 and 16. One or two of those places have a good chance of being ranked between about 4 and 10 on coldest maximums ever recorded in Western Australia.      

Perth officially recorded its coolest February day on record by a big margin. 114mm fell in the 24 hours to 9am. For a city that has a Meditteranean climate and a February average of 8mm it is an outstanding result. Perth is running cooler than average over recent weeks and wet, a general situation in Australia's west, as well as the tropics.

Perth's coolest February days since records began in 1897:

1.....17.4....2017

2.....19.0....1914

3.....19.6....1917

4.....19.8....1929

5.....19.9....1908 and 1897 

Edited February 10, 2017 by Styx

[mb018538]

Strange goings on for sure, kind of mirrors the unusually wet weather that's been hammering the west coast of the USA all winter. You have to raise a chuckle in the UK when 17.5c is a record daytime low for a summer month!  I remember early last June sat here in a sweater as it was 10c and freezing cold under an easterly wind! Hoping everyone stays safe over in QLD through the intense heat. Not pleasant at all.

[Styx]

BOM still predicting New South Wales will have its hottest February day on record on Saturday (  average statewide temperature ) so it's going to be a big day for Australia's most populous state. Very few Januarys in the past would had hotter days I suspect and not by much.

Intense heat filtered across most southern and western districts of New South Wales today from the west. There are already some records. The maximum of 47.4C at Hay was the highest measurement in the state since 2004. Fourteen other stations had maximums of 45C or more which is a rare event for New South Wales. 

A few weather sites in the Sydney metropolitan area ( there are 22 in total )  broke February records today (  between 43 and 45 degrees ) and more are likely to fall tomorrow. The primary Sydney site at Observatory Hill is among the coolest of them as its close to the harbour where seabreezes dominate during the summertime.  39 degrees is forecast for tomorrow for the harbour area which is  3C away from the February record. The timing of the seabreeze will determine what happens there but it would be appropriate to get the primary city site onto what will be a long record list by the end of tomorrow.

Canberra's maximum of 41.0C today was the second hottest February day on record and the same is forecast tomorrow. I'm going to hold off with my usual record lists which I do for the major cities until tomorrow is sorted out.

 

[Styx]

A scorcher across New South Wales today with 32 weather stations topping 45 degrees including the western side of Sydney. There were two 47 degree readings in Sydney's west just 25 miles from the CBD. Many sites had all-time records,  January is traditionally more favorable for extreme heat events. The Sydney city site near the harbour was subject to a seabreeze all day long and didn't manage to pass 40.

The state's maximum was 47.6C ( the third hottest February temperature ) after 47.4C yesterday ( fourth hottest ). 

Canberra recorded it's second hottest February day on record today ( records since 1940 ):

1.....42.2....1968

2.....41.6....2017 ( 11th )

3.....41.0....2017 ( 10th )

4.....40.3....2009 ( 8th )

.......40.3....2009 ( 9th )

.......40.3....2009 ( 10th )

 

There is a fire threat tomorrow as a front works its way northward with much cooler air to follow. With the intense heat moving into southern Queensland on Sunday that state has the best chance it's had all month to break the Queensland February high which is 46.5 at Birdsville

[Summer of 95]

That Perth maximum is incredible; based on the departure from average it's like a 6 or 7C maximum here in early August. 2007-2012 and 2015 tried but never produced anything approaching that!

Is Perth losing its Mediterranean climate? Looking at long term trends it seems to be getting more and more rain in summer, much less in winter, with the annual amount overall decreasing because of the drier winters. 

[Styx]

16 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

That Perth maximum is incredible; based on the departure from average it's like a 6 or 7C maximum here in early August. 2007-2012 and 2015 tried but never produced anything approaching that!

Is Perth losing its Mediterranean climate? Looking at long term trends it seems to be getting more and more rain in summer, much less in winter, with the annual amount overall decreasing because of the drier winters. 

I was surprised too. I don't want to dismiss a cold weather day out of hand  but I think it's important to point out it was a small area involved and the timing of the onset of the rain was fortunate, setting in after a cool night before 9am and lasting for the 24 hour meteorological day before clearing soon after and the clouds breaking up. I just had a look at the climate trend you mentioned for Perth and yes you right. Increasing summer rain is definately on the increase for large parts of Western Australia.

Edited February 12, 2017 by Styx

[Styx]

Queensland broke it's February record today reaching 47.2C at the town of Thargomindah. The previous Queensland record of 46.5C was also surpassed at the southern town of St George (46.8) and Ballera (47.0). Some of those readings could go higher. Records ( February and all time ) right across southern Queensland.

  . 

New South Wales appears to have had more spectacular heat records today this time concentrated in the north. February records down by 2-4 degrees at a number of locations and consequently all time records go. As at 4pm the New South Wales high today is 47.9C ( second hottest February day on record for the state ) with a few 47s.

Edited February 12, 2017 by Styx

[matt111]

Interesting video about the weather the fires have created http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38961718

[Styx]

30 homes were destroyed in the NSW bushfires.  It seems the BBC confused the official fire danger threat by the fire service ( the rare 'Catastrophic' rating for a few districts ) with what eventually ended up happening. The mistake was an easy one to make as the Australian media went into meltdown about the impending threat and so did the authorities.  Still, it may have been a catastrophic life experience for families who weren't psychologically prepared that their homes could be lost. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/

[Styx]

A very low cyclone season in the Australia region so far. Just one cyclone in Australia waters since the official season started in November ( it crossed the north west coast as a weak system a few weeks ago ). The average cyclone season ( November-April ) will have 11 cyclones in Australia waters of which 4 will cross the coast. Last season was an easy record low with 3 in total and 1 land crossing.

Edited February 17, 2017 by Styx

[Weather-history]

On 10 February 2017 at 02:04, Styx said:

Perth officially recorded its coolest February day on record by a big margin. 114mm fell in the 24 hours to 9am. For a city that has a Meditteranean climate and a February average of 8mm it is an outstanding result. Perth is running cooler than average over recent weeks and wet, a general situation in Australia's west, as well as the tropics.

Perth's coolest February days since records began in 1897:

1.....17.4....2017

2.....19.0....1914

3.....19.6....1917

4.....19.8....1929

5.....19.9....1908 and 1897 

I lived in Perth for 10 years. That is cool for February.

[Styx]

Have never been to Perth Weather-history but I have two uncles who migrated over there from central Europe. They were drawn there because of the summer heat and sun. It also seems to be the go to place for British migrants, probably for the same reason.

------

Canberra had its coldest February temperature on record this morning of 2.8C ( average 13C ). A cold pool moved over south eastern Australia yesterday but the airmass wasn't particularly sharp or deep. I haven't been to Canberra either but I am supposing a local inversion layer was at play overnight as nearby Mount Ginini ( 1760m ) registered 1C overnight and a brief scan of the BOM readings from other centres this morning doesn't show up any other big anomalies.

Canberra's coldest February nights ( records since 1940 )

1.....2.8.....2017

2.....3.0.....1985 and 1962

3.....3.3.....1943

4.....3.6......1945 and 1941

 

Edited February 21, 2017 by Styx
Update Canberra readings

[Styx]

I have made a graph of the extreme heat days experienced over summer in Australia's 8 state and territory capital cities. Summer is about to finish and these will be the final numbers. I have used the 40 degree mark because Weatherzone have supplied the historical averages. I have then gone to the BOM site to count up the numbers for each city going back to the summer of 2000 which didn't long. I should point out that there were a few high 30 degree days ( such as 38s and 39s ) in Adelaide and Perth which traditionally get a few 40 degree days, but also in Sydney and Melbourne which happened to fall short this summer. Adelaide and Perth sometimes get 40C days in November and March as well, but obviously I haven't included those shoulder months.

 

 

Season 2016/17 40C+ days

Adelaide............6 days....( historical average 3.2 )

Perth.................4 days....( historical average 2.7 )

Canberra............2 days....( historical average 0.3 )

Melbourne..........0 days....( historical average 1.5 )

Sydney..............0 days....( historical average 0.4 )

Brisbane............0 days....( historical average 0.3 )

Hobart...............0 days....( historical average >0.1 )

Darwin...............0 days....( historical average 0 days )

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 25, 2017 by Styx

[Styx]

A selection of maps from the BOM reviewing the summer. The cool and tropical summer in the west ( wettest on record in Western Australia ) wasn't enough to balance out the heat in New South Wales ( hottest summer on record ) and Queensland ( second hottest ). It is the biggest east-west split in conditions I have seen for a very long time which almost makes looking at the national averages slightly meaningless this time around

 

Summer temperature anomaly ( 1961-90 )

Dec.....+0.7

Jan.....+0.8

Feb.....+0.3

 

Edited March 1, 2017 by Styx

[Weather-history]

Looks like Perth had a good storm

 

[Weather-history]

 

[tropicbreeze]

After a lull in the monsoon in the north west it will likely be springing back to life with the expected arrival of the third tropical cyclone for this season. A low is developing to the north east of Darwin and according to the models should be over Darwin Sunday or Monday as a cat 1 or 2 tropical cyclone.

The first 2 of the season barely made it to tropical cyclone intensity, mainly victims of dry air entrainment and high vertical wind shear. There's every possibility this one might be shot the same way, the whole season has been one of unfavourable conditions for cyclogenesis. Forecast is for around 300mm rain in the 48 hours as the system passes.

Earth.nullschool wind graphic for 18:00 hrs local time Sunday (their data is taken from GFS).

[Weather-history]

 

[tropicbreeze]

Tropical Cyclone Blanche developed on Sunday after the tropical low 96S passed over the Tiwi islands in the Northern Territory. The cyclone stayed just off the coast near Darwin and intensified to a cat 2 system as it crossed the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf before crossing the north Kimberley coast. Point Fawcett got 384 mm rain in a 17 hour period as the system passed over.

[Styx]

A very warm start to autumn across central and southern Australia. Up to the 19th Hobart is registering an anomaly of +3.0C which is well above the monthly March record. Temperatures are due to fall close to the long-term average over the reliable forecast period so the final figure will be close. We have had 3 days over 30C this month more than the entire summer period.