Australian Weather

[knocker]

Looking on the bright side Styx isn't the grape moving south leading to a booming Tasmanian wine industry?

[keithlucky]

Coldest night in Adelaide in over 126yrs diden"t know they even sold ice scrapers there.http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/adelaides-coldest-august-morning-for-126-years-but-its-warming-up/story-fnii5yv4-1227012614276

[Styx]

Looking on the bright side Styx isn't the grape moving south leading to a booming Tasmanian wine industry?

 

Certainly seems to be an industry with a very bright future... more reliable seasons in Tasmania producing regular high quality harvests. I think growing conditions for cool temperate wines in traditional mainland areas are becoming quite marginal for good quality due to changing climate conditions?  Also a happy convergence with Tasmania's growing reputation for niche high quality products, and growing demand for particular wine varieties. I am not much of a wine drinker myself so I couldn't really tell a high quality tasting drop with an average bottle of plonk to be honest..but I hear the connossiers rave about what is produced here.

We also produce good whiskey!

 

 

Coldest night in Adelaide in over 126yrs diden"t know they even sold ice scrapers there.http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/adelaides-coldest-august-morning-for-126-years-but-its-warming-up/story-fnii5yv4-1227012614276

 

A significant cold weather record but already mentioned on the previous page by another member.

I think this recent cold wave may be significant enough for the BOM to issue one of their special significant climate/weather statements. I counted in excess of 60 cold weather records over the last 3 days ( mostly minima ), near half of those sites have over 20 years of records.

 

Canberra has just had a third night in a row with a minimum of -6 and lower...quite rare...

[NorthNSW]

A beautiful, balmy August day here today:

 

To add to what Styx said above about Canberra:
Last night was the coldest August night in Canberra for 20 years (dropping to -7.6ºC)
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-thaws-after-coldest-august-morning-in-20-years-20140805-100i11.html
Also from the article:

"Mr Carson said Canberra may be set to break a 44-year record tonight should temperatures dip below the forecast low.
"If we can jag a -6 tonight, it will be the first run of 4 nights consecutive below minus 6 since 1970," he said.
"Having said that I think we are looking at around -5C. Close call?"

 

(Mr Carson from Downton Abbey?  )

 

P.S. Just noticed in this afternoon's update that Canberra's forecast minimum for tonight has been lowered to -6ºC. Seems a chance that 44-year record mentioned above could go.

Edited August 5, 2014 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

Done. -6.1C in Canberra at 439am this morning so that's the first 4 day run of sub -6C in the capital since 1971. That 1971 run included Canberra's lowest ever recorded temperature of -10C. It is the fourth time since records commenced in 1939 that this particular threshold has been matched or exceeded - there was a 5 day run of sub -6C in the winter of 1959 and an 8 day run in 1962. So perhaps a slightly less significant record in the overall climatology of Canberra in some respects, but still notable. This should be the end of Australia's cold wave.  Thanks to the BOMs online climate data base for this information.

[Summer of 95]

-7.6C in Canberra. How many places in the UK have got near that in 2014??? Certainly not any large towns in England.

[Styx]

I emailed the BOM and asked whether the recent Australian coldwave was significant enough for them to release a Special Climate Statement, which is issued whenever a historical significant weather events takes place.

The Special Climate Statement page: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/

 

I got a quick reply which was nice of them:

 

 

Thank you for your question and your kind words regarding our services.

The recent cold outbreak was certainly notable and did see a small number of records broken. However, the region where the event was significant in the context of the historical record was relatively small - covering the Victorian Mallee, parts of eastern South Australia (including the Riverland) and parts of far southwest New South Wales.

In terms of the criteria which would trigger the publication of a Special Climate Statement this event was borderline but not quite there. If the event had been of the same magnitude but had occurred as a heat event in summer it would have been substantially below the thresholds we have historically used to issue statements.

In the absence of a Special Climate Statement you will be able to find information on the event in the regular Monthly Weather Review when it is published.

I hope that this answers your question.

 
Regards,
Climate Analysis Section

National Climate Centre - Bureau of Meteorology 
| email: helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au  | fax: +61 3 9669 4678 
Please consider the environment before printing

 

Fair enough.

[NorthNSW]

A rather strong cold front to hit Tasmania tomorrow.

 

BOM have forecast snow down to 100m across central and southern Tasmania:

West Coast - Showers and possible hail, falling as snow above 100 metres. The chance of thunderstorms during the morning.

South East - Showers and possible hail, falling as snow above 100 metres. The chance of thunderstorms in the far south during the morning and afternoon.

Midlands - The chance of showers and hail, more likely in the afternoon, falling as snow at times above 100 metres.

East Coast - Isolated showers and possible hail, mainly in the south, falling as snow above 100 metres from around midday.

Upper Derwent Valley - Showers and possible hail developing in the morning, becoming less likely during the evening. Showers falling as snow at times.

Central Plateau - Snow showers and possible hail. The chance of thunderstorms in the west in the morning.

 

And down to 300m in northern Tasmania:

North West Coast - Scattered showers and possible hail, falling as snow above 300 metres, contracting to the west during the evening.

Central North - The chance of showers and hail from the morning, falling as snow above 300 metres.

North East - The chance showers in the afternoon, falling as snow above 300 metres.

 

The mainland will miss out on the coldest air, with snow levels lowering to about 800-900m in Victoria and around 1000m in southern NSW.

Edited August 9, 2014 by NorthNSW

[NorthNSW]

From what I've been able to find:

Snow falling down to around 300m in the Hobart area with the highest suburbs (e.g. Collinsvale) getting snow during that most recent event. That reported snow level sounds about right as the Hobart site at 50.5m ASL was able to get down to 2.7ºC at the 9pm observation during precipitation, though it was mostly in the 3.5-4.5ºC range during the evening/overnight showers. Grove (at 65m ASL) in the neighbouring Huon Valley, about 30kms SW of Hobart, was getting temps as low as 1.7-1.8ºC with precip though mostly around 2.0-2.8ºC range during the evening/overnight showers, which would probably allow for snow falling closer to the 200m mark for that particular area in their nearby hills.

Collinsvale school at about 340m was closed until mid-morning. There was snow down to 200m reported in the Mt Field National Park area.

(https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/24681545/missing-bushwalkers-rescued-in-freezing-conditions-near-hobart/)

(http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/a-winter-shade-of-pale-heavy-snowfalls-transform-hills-into-a-winter-wonderland/story-fnj4f7k1-1227020513271)

Nice photos of snow on The Mercury's Facebook from various parts of southern Tasmania: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152655629228408.1073741836.100660463407&type=1

 

 

~~~~~~~

 

It's been basically as dry as it gets around the local region, with this quote from BOMs most recent drought report: "Rainfall averaged over this region (between Bundaberg and Coffs Harbour, and inland to Roma and St George) for the 12 months is the second-lowest on record, and the lowest since 1901–02"

Seems like Mother Nature's revenge for 6 years in a row of good rainfall.

 

North Coast enduring driest conditions in more than a century - Tom Lowrey - Posted

Mon 11 Aug 2014, 6:50pm

Much of the North Coast has endured its second-driest 12 months on record, and the weather doesn't look likely to turn anytime soon.

The Bureau of Meteorlogy recently published its latest drought statement, with north-eastern New South Wales recording serious to severe rainfall deficiencies.

Large parts of north-eastern New South Wales have received less than 60 percent of their average rainfall since July last year.

Average rainfall was the lowest since 1901 in the region from Coffs Harbour in the south to Bundaberg in the north.

Bureau Senior Climatologist Agatha Imielska said there is no sign of significant rainfall arriving any time soon.

"Our seasonal climate outlook is not favouring odds for drier or wetter conditions," she said.

"So the key thing there is that to really offset those deficiencies we do need some good, solid falls.

"Even though our seasonal outlook isn't favouring drier conditions, its also not favouring wetter conditions."

Ms Imielska said one strong system could transform the current dry conditions, but there is no such system on the outlook.

"If we do see some good strong systems - and East Coast Lows are the classic case of what we see in winter - that would certainly improve the situation," she said.

"But as far as what see in the climate outlook, there's no indication favouring those wetter, above average falls that are really necessary to offset the deficiencies."

(http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-11/north-coast-enduring-driest-conditions-in-more-than-a-century/5663570)

 

 

There is a good prospect of 20-30mm this weekend, and an outlying chance of more than that. While 20-30mm is better than nothing, it won't really have an impact. 50mm+ of rain would be better (with follow-up rain in the months afterward).

 

Here's the 12 month rainfall decile/totals/anomaly maps showing the southeastern quadrant of the country with the Murray-Darling River catchment outlined on the map. Areas of the NSW North Coast have experienced rainfall deficiencies of over 800mm in the past 12 months.

 

~~~~~

 

A wintry surprise for towns in the Blue Mountains behind Sydney today with snow flurries falling. No snow was forecast.

Edited August 12, 2014 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

 

One of the most intense high pressure systems you'll ever see in the Australian region. The highest barometric reading ever recorded in Australia is 1044.3hPa/mb on June 7 1967 at Launceston, Tasmania. By the time this system reaches Tasmania its central reading will be down to 1038 or so, then it'll split with strong centres to the west and east of Tasmania. Lots of calm and mostly dry days ahead for this corner of the world.

[Styx]

From what I've been able to find:

Snow falling down to around 300m in the Hobart area with the highest suburbs (e.g. Collinsvale) getting snow during that most recent event. That reported snow level sounds about right as the Hobart site at 50.5m ASL was able to get down to 2.7ºC at the 9pm observation during precipitation, though it was mostly in the 3.5-4.5ºC range during the evening/overnight showers. Grove (at 65m ASL) in the neighbouring Huon Valley, about 30kms SW of Hobart, was getting temps as low as 1.7-1.8ºC with precip though mostly around 2.0-2.8ºC range during the evening/overnight showers, which would probably allow for snow falling closer to the 200m mark for that particular area in their nearby hills.

Collinsvale school at about 340m was closed until mid-morning. There was snow down to 200m reported in the Mt Field National Park area.

(https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/24681545/missing-bushwalkers-rescued-in-freezing-conditions-near-hobart/)

(http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/a-winter-shade-of-pale-heavy-snowfalls-transform-hills-into-a-winter-wonderland/story-fnj4f7k1-1227020513271)

Nice photos of snow on The Mercury's Facebook from various parts of southern Tasmania: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152655629228408.1073741836.100660463407&type=1

 

 

Very light covering of snow to about the 250m level in Hobart which happens once or twice every year. Not enough to cause any local disruption and probably not enough to even build a snowman. Collinsvale Primary School was closed for an extra hour or two. Collinsvale is a hamlet on the slopes of Mt.Wellington about 35 minute drive to Hobart. Lovely place, lived there for a couple of years when I was younger.

 

 

It's been a few years now since snow has settled at reasonable quantities at very low levels in Tasmania to cause significant disruption ( major arterial roads closed, multiple school closures, bus cancellations etc ). Sometimes it gets bad enough for the west coast to be isolated for days, and the Midland highway blocked, cutting Tasmania in two.

[NorthNSW]

A low and an associated trough (extending northwards from the low) is producing widespread rain over parts of the eastern Outback and northern coast / central areas of Queensland today.

Excluding the small stretch of coastline south of Cairns around Innisfail, it's very unusual to get moderate to heavy rain like this in these areas of QLD during August. It also brought some rain yesterday too with Tibooburra receiving 32mm.

The rain will continue moving eastward into southern QLD and the remainder of NSW. An East Coast Low is expected to form within the troughline as it moves offshore during Sunday, and is likely to bring heavy rain to the southern half of the NSW coast (some disagreement over where the heaviest rain will be).

The visible satellite image from this afternoon below:

 

 

Yesterday's rainfall:

Today's map should look even better with falls of 25-50mm since 9am already in central QLD and 50-75mm since 9am on parts of the northern QLD coast.

 

August average rainfall:

Edited August 15, 2014 by NorthNSW

[NorthNSW]

Charleville had 52.0mm in the 24 hours to 9am. It's wettest August day on record in the combined history of the old (1874-1959) and present (1942-present) Charleville sites. Cunnamulla received 58.2mm in the 24 hours to 9am. It's wettest August day on record (1879-present) at that site.
Yesterday's totals weren't too far off the daily August records at some sites with over 100 years history like: Wilcannia (30.6mm - record 40.4mm), Menindee (36.4mm - record 38.9mm), and White Cliffs (32.6mm - record 39.1mm).

 

24 hours to 9am rainfall map:

 

 

How the system is looking early this afternoon on the satellite:

 

Predicted rainfall over the next 4 days (the 200mm+ area on the southern NSW coast being the area where the East Coast Low that will form is favoured to affect):

[NorthNSW]

The system continued to bring notable amounts of rain as it progressed eastward. Getting widespread falls like this over several days in August is rather uncommon. There were a couple of isolated falls in excess of 100mm yesterday (too localised to be shown on map below). Daily rainfall records for August are somewhat higher for most places along the coast though. 

Nyngan in the central west of NSW (between Dubbo and Bourke) received 50.0mm, threatening its August daily record of 59.4mm (records back to 1879)

Maryborough in the Wide Bay district of southern QLD received 90.6mm, it's wettest August day since 1893 (records back to 1870).

Here at the house we had 68.8mm yesterday, which is the vast majority of our August monthly average.

 

 

This afternoon's satellite picture showing the low over central northern NSW, which according to BOM's synoptic is now no longer associated with the troughline offshore. The cloudband associated with the troughline is now offshore of the east coast from Sydney northwards.

Within that troughline though another low formed off the NSW north coast overnight and is now sitting not too distant offshore the Sydney coast (basically an East Coast Low). That low is helping to bring some heavy rain to the southern coast of NSW (with a Severe Weather Warning current down there), though that low isn't clearly evident on the satellite with the extensive cloud along the troughline it is embedded in.

 

You can also see a cold front approaching Perth. That front is expected is bring potentially severe storms to coastal parts of southwestern WA during this evening.

Edited August 17, 2014 by NorthNSW

[NorthNSW]

24 hour falls of up to 195mm on the southern coast of NSW have occurred from an East Coast Low.

 

Last night's thunderstorms in southwestern WA produced winds as strong as 120km/h. Unconfirmed report of a tornado at Bunbury. A cargo ship at Fremantle broke free from its mooring during the winds and ran into the Fremantle Rail Bridge. It's not known if the bridge has received structural damage yet, but the bridge has been closed until it can be properly assessed.News article: http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/storm-ship-hits-fremantle-rail-bridge-20000-homes-blacked-out/story-fnhocxo3-1227027683540

Edited August 18, 2014 by NorthNSW

[Upgrade]

Melbourne had it's first day over 20c since 27 May, on  Thursday 22 August! Hopefully a sign that spring is around the corner. Yesterday was also beautiful.

[NorthNSW]

There is the potential for heavy rain here overnight and into tomorrow. It's already been a wet August, but could become a bit wetter.

 

 

Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain

for people in the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast forecast districts

Issued at 12:29 pm EST on Tuesday 26 August 2014.

RAIN INCREASING OVER NORTHEASTERN NSW TONIGHT

 

Weather Situation

As a low pressure system deepens in the Coral Sea this afternoon and tonight, an associated rain band is expected to extend over the northeast of the state. Rain is expected to start increasing over southern parts of the Mid North Coast region this afternoon, then extend to northern parts of the Mid North Coast and to the Northern Rivers district during the night-time hours. During this period the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers coast are expected to see steady rain falling, with some intermittent heavy bursts likely, particularly from thunderstorms in the rain band.

Thunderstorms and heavy showers may lead to localised flash flooding are forecast for the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast forecast districts tonight.

 

 

 

Also with the anticipated rain, a flood watch for minor flooding has been issued for the Bellinger, Orara, Richmond/Wilson, and Brunswick River valleys.

The models have been all over the shop though, varying the distance the low will be offshore and consequently how much rain will occur. It should become clear by around early tomorrow morning if the heavy rain is on its way.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Hi,

 

Where is the best sight to view the various models for Australia/Sth Hemisphere. I'm moving back in December and only really got interested in weather in more detail while in the UK most of the sites I view the models on here only show Europe/ Nth Hemisphere.

[Styx]

Hi,

 

Where is the best sight to view the various models for Australia/Sth Hemisphere. I'm moving back in December and only really got interested in weather in more detail while in the UK most of the sites I view the models on here only show Europe/ Nth Hemisphere.

 

I'll see you in transit somewhere as I leave for the UK in December

 

I find BOM and Weatherzone's 10 day ACCESS charts useful enough.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

There's a forum on that site with commentary of latest developments.

There are numerous links to other model charts below, but I can't readily find EC for you I'm afraid

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/links/ozcharts.htm

 

Others may be able to be more helpful.

[NorthNSW]

If you're looking for EC, try Wunderground's Wundermap.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

On the side menu checklist, there is an option further down that says Model Data. Which then gives you an option to view EC's model run (out to 180 hours). It detects your location so until you move over here the map view will automatically default to the UK instead of Australia.

Being an American site, the precipitation amounts are in inches.

 

The BSCH (Brisbane Storm Chasers) site is probably the best site to view GFS on (with state and regional views available):

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html (the dropdown menu when you click on 'Complete Charts List unveils quite a number of different charts to view. Also at a state or regional view you can click anywhere on the map to get a forecast sounding for the time you've selected)

 

Both are completely free with no sign up needed.

 

~~~~~

 

An East Coast Low produced areas of heavy rain on the NSW North Coast on the 26th & 27th of August. Minor flood warnings were issued for the Hastings, Bellinger, Orara and Richmond/Wilson Rivers.

The highest 24 hour fall on the 26th was 182mm at Turners Flat (near Kempsey). Coincidently, the highest 24 hour fall recorded on the 27th was also 182mm at Tuckombil (near Ballina). Although on the 27th, BOM's automatic weather station at Ballina decided to stop recording rain (all other obs at that station continued recording though), so officially it is not known how much fell there, but it is suspected that up to around 300mm may have fell as the system stalled keeping intense rain falling over the town for hours (I have no doubt that at least 200mm fell at Ballina).

The evening of the 26th and into the early hours of the 27th was surprisingly stormy here with four thunderstorms passing over town (three of the four producing a reasonable amount of lightning too). It is unusual to get thunderstorms come ashore from off the ocean here (the vast majority of thunderstorms we get here develop over land). The first of the storms also produced hailstones up to 1cm. Here at the house we received 71.8mm on the 26th and 44.6mm on the 27th. 

 

Most of Ballina is pretty much flat, so the water doesn't flow away quickly.

Ballina sporting fields:

(Source: Prime7 News North Coast)

Ballina (there was heavy rain that night also):

 

Typical response to heavy rain falling for hours near the racecourse at Coffs Harbour:

(Source: Prime7 News North Coast)

 

An upper level low to the northwest of the low that was offshore the NSW north coast produced storms over southeastern QLD on the 27th:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3arL30ilBRU
 

Edited August 29, 2014 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

The official winter season has ended in Australia...now comes the hard part, The Warming.

The last two years saw premature heat envelop large parts of the country with unprecedented heatwaves and bushfires. Weather watching in Australia can be tempered by disaster but it is fascinating to observe the heating up of the continent at this time of the year and the build up of the monsoon in the tropics as spring progresses onward.

 

0.3C warmer than average ( 61-90 ). Much cooler than last year

 

28% below.

 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/aus/summary.shtml

Edited September 1, 2014 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

A contrasting August for rainfall in NSW.

The lack of frontal activity during the month caused areas of central and southern inland NSW to experience dry conditions, as these areas are fairly reliant on frontal activity for rainfall at this time of year.

The northern inland of NSW and coastal NSW typically see less rain from frontal systems (which is why August is normally one of the driest months of the year for these areas), and in coastal NSW's case it will generally benefit from the absence of frontal systems as it usually means moist onshore winds will dominate instead (and if there's a trigger, like a trough, upper low etc., it can cause rain events). The onshore regime that dominated caused moist air to be pumped into that weather system over the eastern outback producing an unusual amount of rain over the northern inland for this time of year.

Totals:

 

Deciles:

 

~~~~~~~

 

A thunderstorm brought hail as large as 2cm in diameter here this afternoon. The biggest stones were very isolated, most stones weren't quite as big. The core of the storm moved through the southern part of town (only about 1km away from the house) but we still got a quick shower of hail as we clipped the northern edge of the storm cell.

Collection of pictures of the storm as it approached and then hit:

 

 

These pictures are from the southern side of town which received the core of the storm. The pictures were taken about 30-45 minutes after the storm had finished:

[SomeLikeItHot]

Thanks  for the weather sites NorthNSW. I am looking forward to some decent thunderstorms and hail. Not to mention a bit of heat and warmish ocean water.

[NorthNSW]

No probs.   

 

~

 

The cold front which produced that hailstorm here, then brought snow showers to the northern NSW ranges that night.

 

Spring arrives with snow

Sept. 4, 2014, midnight

It may have been the start of Spring this week but someone forgot to tell the weather gods.

After a mild start to the week, we were plunged back into winter just a day later when a cold front passed through the Northern Tablelands on Tuesday afternoon. 

The change arrived with strong gusty winds and several showers of soft hail (sometimes referred to as sago snow) during the afternoon and evening. 

In the early hours of Wednesday September 3 there were light snow showers with a patchy cover on the ground at sunrise, which melted soon after 9am.

There were reports of light coverage on the ground at Ben Lomond and Black Mountain.  Light snow fell  in the afternoon at Ebor with a heavier fall around 8 – to 9pm.

Heavier falls were reported further south at Bendemeer, Nundle and Hanging Rock where 7-8cm fell. 

Falls were also reported in the Blue Mountains and there were reports of up to 20cm in the Barrington Tops.

The snow comes after a drier than normal winter that ended on a positive note with rainfall totalling 79.0 mm. All of the falls came in the second half of the month. 

http://www.guyraargus.com.au/story/2536293/spring-arrives-with-snow/?cs=605

 

 

 

The southern parts of the northern ranges got the best falls.

 

Hanging Rock:

 

Sheba Dam:

(Source of both photos above: Tamworth Weather - Facebook)

 

Northern Daily Leader has 33 photos in its article "Yes, it snowed in Spring!": http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/2533001/yes-it-snowed-in-spring-photos/?cs=157

 

Barrington Tops:

(Source of both photos above: Gloucester Advocate newspaper)

[keithlucky]

Yes still snowing in Australia http://www.perisher.com.au/tickets-passes/extended-season.html