Australian Weather

[Styx]

BOM suggesting a national January mean temperature to finish in top 4 on record ( after the hottest January last year ). This latest heatwave is likely to bump things up the scale.

 

I am sorry for above statement as I was completely wrong.

 

I pulled it from a usually very reliable source ( Sydney Morning Herald ), but still..

 

 

Significant events

The previous heatwave was one of the most significant in history, the Bureau of Meteorology noted in a special climate statement released last week.

 

As of the end of last week, Australia was on course for its fourth-hottest January on record. The coming bursts of heat may lift that ranking even higher, Mr Sharpe said.

 

While regions of northern Australia have had monsoonal or cyclonic conditions keeping a lid on temperatures, "there's still stacks of heat over the south", he said.

 

Nationwide, January 2013 was the hottest in more than a century of standardised records. The year as a whole was also Australia's hottest, easily eclipsing 2005, the bureau said earlier this month.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/mercury-and-fire-dangers-to-rise-as-new-burst-of-heat-looms-20140127-31hw4.html

 

Mr Sharpe is spokesman for the Australian weathersite 'Weatherzone'. The weaker version of Netweather with seemingly low quality control when it comes to public promotion.

I have had many problems with the inaccuracies of their stories and statements on their site and to the press in the past.. that I shouldn't have heeded what they said in the first place. The SMH should stick to official statements from the BOM I reckon but WZ is owned by the Fairfax group of newspapers so they're tied together at times.

 

Anyway, after a bit of sleuthing about on the BOM site today at the monthly graphs for January it appears the January claim by WZ was for average maximum temperature in Victoria (which was very high - higher than last year ), and not for national mean.

 

National January mean:

 

 

17th month in a row to have a mean temperature anomaly of +0.5C or more according to the BOM.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Styx

[Styx]

Adelaide has had a close call for monthly heat records since December, but today at 230pm it broke it's February high reaching 44.7C, 0.3C above the 2004 and 1912 record for the month. Records since 1887.

 

Moments ago at 320pm it was 44.4C - ...so it could even exceed the high so far reached today.

 

So that's all 8 of Australia's state and territory capital cities to have a monthly heat record now since last year's summer....except for Brisbane.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

Not much happening here lately. It's been a very dry summer so far (by our standards).

A glimmer of hope there may be some good rain before the month ends, but nothing set in concrete yet.

 

January 2014 and December 2013 Rainfall Decile Map for NSW:

 

[Upgrade]

Melbourne has recorded 7 days over 40 degrees c this year so far, beating it's previous record of 6 days, in over 100 years of records. The average number of days over 40 in an average year is 1.3. In addition Melbourne has just recorded it's hottest 30 day period ever, beating a record set only last year. Amazing times. The climate seems to be becoming more extreme down here .

Edited February 10, 2014 by Upgrade

[Styx]

For the record, 21 homes in Victoria were destroyed on Sunday thru Monday by bushfire. Most were on the far northern outskirts of Melbourne, an area with patchy bushland and where homes meet pasture. Fire conditions have been exacerbated by a record warm period ( as Upgrade mentions.. ), together with very dry weather since the start of summer.

 

About 300 homes have been lost to bushfire in Australia this spring/summer ( most in NSW in September ), compared to near 400 in 2012/13.  These are numbers certainly not observed every year - but the historical significance lies in the fact that the destructiveness has happened in years that run side by side. And no El Nino!

 

 

Melbourne has recorded 7 days over 40 degrees c this year so far, beating it's previous record of 6 days, in over 100 years of records. The average number of days over 40 in an average year is 1.3. In addition Melbourne has just recorded it's hottest 30 day period ever, beating a record set only last year. Amazing times. The climate seems to be becoming more extreme down here .

 

Adelaide has also broken it's record run of days over 40 degrees for a summer season, which I believe will tick over to 13 tomorrow ( 2 days over the old record)

This record is a powerful one as the previous record included the shoulder months of November and March.

The annual record of 40+ is 11 days, and that tomorrow will be equalled. With the traditional hot months of March, November and December 2014 to come, one wonders what the final tally will be? 

[knocker]

Record breaking rains hit Queensland's far north

 

In the last seven days 1.2 metres of rain has been recorded in Kowanyama.

 

The weather bureau says it is the highest monthly total since 1918.

 

Senior forecaster Jonty Hall says the monsoon low is now dumping heavy rain around Karumba.

"We should see those heavy falls shift from that western Peninsula area down into the Gulf country area," he said.

 

"So areas from Karumba westwards through Burketown and the Northern Territory border could see that heavy rain fall developing in the next couple of days."

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-09/record-rains-in-queensland27s-far-north/5247892

[Upgrade]

 

 

Adelaide has also broken it's record run of days over 40 degrees for a summer season, which I believe will tick over to 13 tomorrow ( 2 days over the old record)

This record is a powerful one as the previous record included the shoulder months of November and March.

The annual record of 40+ is 11 days, and that tomorrow will be equalled. With the traditional hot months of March, November and December 2014 to come, one wonders what the final tally will be? 

Records are not just being broken, they are being smashed to oblivion. 

[Styx]

For those who aren't wind exhausted already..this is an entertaining video.

 

On Sunday, a destructive squall line ahead of a cool change gave Hobart it's windiest February day on record ( 130km/81mph )! This was also the day of Hobart's annual Hobart Cup...cancelled at last moment as wind blitzed the course and sent patrons scurrying:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ly4V_3RQYOA

[NorthNSW]

We had a rowdy thunderstorm last night. The storm brought heavy rain and very frequent lightning. Most of the time during the storm there was lightning every couple of seconds, and there was even some brief occasions during the storm when there was lightning flashing every second (barely any gaps of darkness).

Here's the lightning overlay on the radar as the tail end of the storm was clearing town and starting to pass out to sea showing cloud-to-ground and cloud-to-cloud lightning (it doesn't show in-cloud/intracloud lightning). South West Rocks is sitting under that 'sea of lightning':

 

Level 3 Water Restrictions started on Feb 11th here in the Macleay Valley. The Macleay River is at its lowest level in 20 years (which was back in the 1994 drought). The last time we had water restrictions was in 2004. Typically, the Macleay River at this time of year has a flow of 200 megalitres per day but this has fallen to as low as 37 megalitres per day just the other week. (http://www.macleayargus.com.au/story/2077667/council-imposes-water-restrictions-across-macleay/) (http://www.macleayargus.com.au/story/2088766/rain-relief-tipped-for-macleays-dry-farms/) (http://www.macleayargus.com.au/story/2073104/restrictions-on-hold-as-macleay-river-flows-at-20-year-lows/)

 

We've had some half-decent rain in the past few days, but we need more. A solid East Coast Low would be helpful and we're about to move into that time of year when the chance of an East Coast Low increases.

[Styx]

Australia's 18 month streak of warmer than average months ( mean 1961-90 comparison ) has come to an end -  February was cooler than average (-0.2C). The non stop anomalous heat period began in August 2012 with every month from September of that year at least a half a degree warmer than average.

 

Summer has been confirmed as the 15th warmest ( since national record set began in 1910 ) so quite a lowly ranking compared to every season since Spring of 2012.

[Styx]

A continuous stream of tropical moisture cooled down the west capping the national summer temperature anomaly from being very high 

 

High summer rainfall in the west.. but a different story along the eastern seaboard..

 

15th warmest summer

 

Summer 2013/14....15th Hottest. Anomaly +0.4 ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall figures yet to be released.

Spring 2013....Hottest on record. Anomoly +1.6C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall -10%

Winter 2013.....3rd Warmest on record. Anomoly +1.3C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall -5%

Autumn 2013...7th Warmest on record. Anomoly +1.0C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall +2%

Summer 2012/13.....Hottest on record. Anomoly +1.1C ( 1961-90 ). Rainfall -16%

Edited March 2, 2014 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

A dry summer here with 268.2mm recorded at the house, well below the long-term summer average of 435.9mm. We were saved a bit by some storm activity and decent-enough rain during mid and late February along this section of the coast. However, you only have to go about 60-70kms further north to find places where record low summer rainfall was recorded.

Yamba, about 160kms north of here, on the Far North Coast had its driest summer in 137 years of records. A handful of other 100+ year records too at other locations on the Far North Coast.

 

The recent rain has greened things up locally. Making things look more like they should at this time of year (images taken between here and Kempsey):

Areas further north of here desperately need some rain though, as they largely missed out on the rain in mid/late February. We still need some more rain too, but not as urgently.

 

The recent rain has increased the river flow too from 20-year lows of around 30ML/d (megalitres per day) back in early February (ignore the data error between Feb 26/27th):

Edited March 4, 2014 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

Nice sunset in Hobart this week which has been doing the rounds on local social media

 

CREDIT GOES TO THOMAS MOORE OF SURF TASMANIA.

[Styx]

Some interesting graphs here showing the climate change situation in Tasmania. A fairly distinct trend line is apparent for all to see.The sea surface temperature anomaly graph of the Tasman sea ( to Tasmania's east ) is the most striking one for me and is particularly relevant to the climatology of Hobart which faces out to sea. The surprising lack of settled snow on Hobart's east facing Mt Wellington during the colder months over many years may in good part be explained by this warmer sea temperature influence. Hobart and the east coast has also had a strikingly warm decade. While the national record year for mean temperature was 2013, Tasmania cemented it in 1988. But the trend over the last century is unquestionably one of warmer and drier years.

 

[NorthNSW]

Apparently we're getting wetter here in this region.

 

 

 Mid North Coast climate forecast to be hotter and wetter in the future - Posted Wed 5 Mar 2014, 12:58pm AEDT

 

New research from the CSIRO and Bureau of Meterology (BOM) suggests the Mid North Coast needs to prepare for a warmer and potentially wetter future.

The latest 'State of the Climate' report, shows mainland Australia has warmed on average one degree since 1910.

The BOM's manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction, Dr David Jones, said the Mid North Coast is no exception and the climate is starting to shift.

"People who are in Port Macquarie for example are now effectively experiencing the climate for somewhere 200 kilometres further north," he said.

"The whole climate situation is moving, and moving quite quickly.

"One degree might not sound like much, but when it actually comes to the impacts it's very significant."

Dr Jones said rainfall levels have fallen in most southern parts of the country.

But he said the Mid North Coast has not followed the trend.

"The Mid North Coast up the Queensland border up to the Queensland border has been getting if anything a little bit wetter over the last 30 years," he said.

"But to the north and south of this region it's actually starting to decline, north of Brisbane and also through a lot of Southern NSW and Victoria.

"So if anything, at this stage the Mid North Coast is tending to fair a little bit better than many of the neighbours."

 

Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-05/mid-north-coast-climate-forecast-to-be-hotter-and-wetter-in-the/5300216

 

 

[NorthNSW]

Some pretty decent storms around northern NSW last Sunday.

The highest gust recorded was 115km/h at Evans Head. It wouldn't surprise me though if there were isolated locations away from BOM's automatic weather stations that had gusts stronger than that, perhaps approaching 130km/h.

We were hit by a solid though brief storm here with quite a bit of lightning during the evening.

 

Pictures in a few newspapers from some of the areas affected by the storms:

 

Port Stephens / Nelson Bay area [Newcastle Herald, 38 photos]: http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2154108/trees-down-roofs-up-as-storm-hits-port-stephens-photos-video/?cs=2593#slide=1 (and a couple in this one not in the first link but are mostly repeats though: http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2153102/storm-in-port-stephens-like-a-mini-cyclone-photos-video/?cs=2593#slide=1 )

 

Taree / Manning Valley [Manning River Times, 26 photos]: http://www.manningrivertimes.com.au/story/2154944/manning-valley-storm-photos/?cs=1467#slide=1

 

Tamworth region [Northern Daily Leader, 27 photos]: http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/2153973/gallery-fierce-storms-leave-trail-of-destruction-on-lazy-sunday/?cs=159#slide=1

 

Port Macquarie / Hastings [Port Macquarie News, 53 photos]: http://www.portnews.com.au/story/2153411/a-sunday-storm-march-16/?cs=257#slide=1

 

A stormy wedding backdrop at Forster [Great Lakes Advocate, 1 photo]: http://www.greatlakesadvocate.com.au/story/2160259/wild-backdrop-for-wedding-day/?cs=447

Edited March 22, 2014 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

March returned a national temperature anomaly of +0.7C ( 61-90 ), so a return to the warm conditions of September 2012-January 2013 ( every month during this period was at least +0.5C warmer than average ).

 

-----------

 

Today, April 1, saw highest April daily temperature for decades at many locations in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania:

 

Hobart 31.0C New April high ( records since 1882 ), breaking previous high of 30.6C in 1941. April average 17C.

Adelaide 36.8C Second highest April temperature ( records since 1887 ), highest 36.9C in 2005. April average 23C.

Melbourne 33.4C....April average 20C.

[NorthNSW]

 

March rain to lift Macleay's water restrictions - By Thom Klein - April 1, 2014, midnight

ABOVE-average monthly rain in March will spell the end of water restrictions across the Macleay. 

With 191.3mm rainfall recorded during the past month at Kempsey (up to 9am yesterday), river flow in the valley’s main waterway is at 2250 megalitres a day, from 250 megalitres just last week.

The wet start to spring follows a dry summer (from December 1 to February 28), during which just 178.3mm of rain fell.

Kempsey Shire Council’s Infrastructure Services director Robert Scott said the Level 3 water restrictions, which had been in place since February 11, would be lifted “imminentlyâ€.

“There were spits and spats of rain in March,†he said.

“Over the past 10 days we’ve had further rain and we even saw 170mm recorded at Willow Glen, up towards Armidale.

“River flow in the Macleay is up nearly 10 times and the river height is up nearly half a metre since February.

“We’ve had a good end to March and the predictions are for an unsettled April.

“That was similar to what was forecast for March.â€

Mr Scott said demand for water supply was below target levels, which had been helped by being out of the peak holiday period.

“We’re keen to work on refilling the (Steuart McIntyre) dam, so we can be in the best position ahead of winter,†he said.

“Hopefully, we’ll see nice average rainfall between now and then too.

“The dam level is just above 60 per cent - it hovered between 80 and 90 per cent in December.

“We’ve tried to refill it on surplus, and now it’s a fairly good opportunity to get it back towards 100 per cent level.â€

Mr Scott said the community had responded well generally to the water restrictions.

Those restrictions are likely to be lifted by the end of the week.

The possibility of an El Nino weather system over winter was of concern to the council, Mr Scott said.

An El Nino system produces drier than average conditions.

March’s rainfall was the first above-average monthly total since November.

Those two months were the only ones since May 2013 which were wetter than long-term mean levels.

 

 

(http://www.macleayargus.com.au/story/2189123/march-rain-to-lift-macleays-water-restrictions/?cs=1526)

 

 

Should say 'wet start to autumn', rather than 'wet start to spring'.

[Styx]

Record rainfall for this time of the year has moved into central Australia from the north west tropics, relieving 3 year rainfall deficiencies.

At Uluru, 65mm fell in a day - ( April average is 14mm, and the annual average is 300mm ). The rare rainfall intensity has produced waterfalls streaming down the side of The Rock:

 

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-09/waterfalls-uluru-rock/5377262

 

Edited April 10, 2014 by Styx

[Styx]

Striking rainfall deficiency in Perth...8.4mm so far for the entire year, compared to the Jan-April mean of 82mm! It should easily break a record for the driest first quarter of any year on record, out west. The medium range forecast suggests this is assured.

 

Had the usual winter-spring rains failed to deliver the goods last year, things would return to being serious in terms of the cities water supply.  ( Perth has had dicey situations in the recent past, with a very clear decline in rainfall totals,: especially during the important southern wet season, which straddles the months of late autumn to early spring.  ). Rainfall, however, has always arrived soon after the critical threshold has been reached. With the crazy weather patterns and heat observed across Australia in the last 2-3 years though, this emerging situation may be worth keeping a tab on.    

 

 

'Interactive' Perth rainfall/water storage tools to have a play with.

Interesting.

https://www.watercorporation.com.au/water-supply-and-services/rainfall-and-dams/rainfall

 

---------------------------------------

 

Meantime in the SE of the continent, especially in Tasmania, it's been a season so far with not a single day of highland snow.

Mid-autumn now, and that's unusual.

[NorthNSW]

Decent storms around the central and northern coasts of NSW today. Some dawn and morning ANZAC Day services were affected (with several ANZAC marches cancelled). They showed Taree's dawn service on the local news tonight with a storm menancingly sitting just outside of town flickering with lightning (not completely sure if video is viewable internationally): http://www.nbnnews.com.au/index.php/2014/04/25/hundreds-gather-for-tarees-dawn-service/

 

A particularly nasty storm moved through the small town of Bulahdelah in the far south of the local region around 3:30am this morning bringing hailstones up to the size of cricket balls (it's not a typo, 3:30am is correct!). Check out these hailstones: https://www.facebook.com/HigginsStormChasing/posts/611752885587169?stream_ref=10

At Nabiac, about halfway between Bulahdelah and Taree, they received 76mm in an hour from a storm this morning.

 

We had a good, noisy storm here about lunchtime, with moderate to heavy rain and some wind, but no hail. Tracker displaying lightning strikes over a 60 minute period on the radar shortly after this afternoon's storm here (white = newest, blue = oldest):

Edited April 25, 2014 by NorthNSW

[Styx]

Perth had 24mm over the weekend taking the yearly total to 33mm, so a nice pick up for them, courtesy of remnants of ex-TC Jack coming into play.

 

In Tasmania, highland snow makes it's first appearance for the year at long last, nothing too spectacular around Hobart, but by all accounts the remote mountains to the south west fared better.  Here I display a picture of Mt.Wellington above Hobart from the 25th. More snow fell and settled on the 26th. From my vantage point at sealevel looking up toward the summit ( 1270m ), it was a ho hum visual experience. But the temperature has dropped away ( min 4.8C this morning ) and Tasmania's low has been -4.5C,  so the chill is a nice glimpse of colder more wintry events to come.

 

https://twitter.com/lovethywalrus/status/459233589696032768/photo/1

Edited April 27, 2014 by Styx

[NorthNSW]

A cold front moving through most of the southeast tonight should bring a bit of snow above 1500m in Victoria and above 1700m around the Snowy Mountains in New South Wales during tomorrow.

Then, a stronger cold front is expected to bring wintry weather to the southeastern quadrant of the country over May 2nd/3rd. At this stage, snow is expected to fall above 1000m in Tasmania and Victoria, and above 1200m in the Snowy Mountains of NSW. 

In this evening's forecast update, the Bureau is considering the possibility of sleet/snow about the northern ranges of NSW on May 3rd. There is a mention of sleet/snow in my local district forecast (the Mid North Coast) for the Barrington Tops, an area of elevated highlands in the southwest of the district that rise as high as 1586m:

"Saturday 3 May

Partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Possible sleet or snow about the Barrington Tops."

 

And also in the neighbouring Northern Tablelands' district forecast (this district covers most of the northern ranges of NSW. The district is also known as the 'New England'):

"Saturday 3 May

Cloudy. Isolated showers. Possible sleet or snow on higher ground."

Edited April 29, 2014 by NorthNSW

[NorthNSW]

Here's a map of the northern ranges of NSW showing the elevation. The Barrington Tops are the area of elevated terrain west of Gloucester. The highest areas of the northern ranges include the Barrington Tops, the area around Guyra / Ben Lomond, and also the area of elevated terrain about halfway between Coffs Harbour and Armidale (no placename is shown on this map for that elevated area, but it is the 'Ebor' area). These three areas have spots that reach between 1500-1600m, with large areas of terrain above 1300m.

Btw, Stanthorpe is in Queensland, and that area is referred to as the 'Granite Belt' (Texas and Goondiwindi are also in QLD).

[Styx]

7th warmest April on record in Australia, with an anomaly of +1.1C ( 61-90 ).

 

- With the exception of February this year, which was -0.2C under average, every month since September 2012 ( that is 20 months ) has been at least +0.5C warmer than average.