Australian Weather

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From The Age, 31 July 2013 Figures in: July heat points to hot 2013

It's fair to say tales of abnormally warm weather in Australia sound like broken records - because for the most part they are.

 

This year has already seen the hottest day, month and season on record, and after a warm July - about 1.5 degrees above the long-term norm - the hottest 11-month period on record. July itself will come in as the nation's third-warmest.

 

As Melbourne's mercury reached 15 degrees on Wednesday, the city will post record July warmth in more than 150 years of counting.

 

Sydney has enjoyed maximum temperatures about 3 degrees above normal, topping the previous record July average of 19 degrees by about a third of a degree. Wednesday's maximum came in at 18.4 degrees.

It will require ''quite a dramatic change'' for 2013 not to be among the hottest years on record for Australia, said David Jones, head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology.

Year to date, average mean temperatures are running 1.07 degrees above the 1961-90 baseline, placing the year just behind 2005, the hottest in more than a century of national data.

The exceptional warmth began last September and every month has turned in notable weather.

Sydney, for instance, had its warmest day, at 45.8 degrees back in January, a March with every day above 20 degrees, and the most July days of 20 degrees or warmer with Tuesday marking the 12th - two more than the previous record set in 1975.

Melbourne, meanwhile, notched nine consecutive days above 30 degrees in March - eclipsing the previous string of seven set in February 1961 - and the longest stretch of days above 22 degrees in May. July 18 was the city's warmest July day, with temperatures reaching 23.3 degrees.

Both cities recorded just three days below average for the month. ''Cool days are less common but are also not as cool as they once were,'' Dr Jones said.

Snow season among worst

Those mild conditions also stretched far inland and, unfortunately for the ski resorts, into alpine regions. Mount Hotham, for instance, had a record six consecutive days above zero during July.

''We're shaping for one of the worst snow seasons on record,'' Dr Jones said. ''It's just been so warm.''

One factor influencing conditions has been unusually warm sea-surface temperatures right around the country. To the end of June, ocean temperatures are wavering about half a degree above the long-term average, meaning onshore winds are warmer in virtually any direction they blow. In a century of records, Australia hasn't recorded a below-average temperature for 20 years, Dr Jones said.

''It does put quite a bias into our system,'' Dr Jones said. “It’s going to be very difficult for the climate over the land to offset that general influence,†with the result temperatures for the rest of the year should remain above average.

The three-month outlook is also for above-average temperatures although perhaps less exceptional than recent months, he said.

The start of August should be warmer than average for both cities. Under the current outlook, four of the first six days of the month should be above Melbourne's August average of 15, and five of the first six days should see the mercury climb above the 18-degree average for Sydney, the bureau forecasts.

Dr Jones said it is probably wrong to focus on either the land or sea as the source for the above-average warmth.

''They're both warm in part because the planet is getting hotter,'' Dr Jones said. ''It's global warming being manifest locally.''

[SomeLikeItHot]

Will 2013 be the year of record low snowdepth in the Australian Alps? Reasonable question now as winter begins to draw to an end with the long range forecast looking uneventful. NSW Hydro has been taking regular measurements at Spencers Creek ( 1830m ) since 1954;  used to determine snowmelt inflow into the extensive grid of hydoelectricity dams in the region. The data is also used as a guide by ski enthusiasts. It is a reasonable measure to determine the state of Australian snow conditions, despite regional variations. The 2013 season has been characterised by a lack of cold fronts from the Southern Ocean, strong high pressure ridging, and  incursions of moist mild air from the tropics. Very high positive temperature anomoly aswell.  ... Current ( peak )snow depth 2013 @ 1830m:  68cmLowest peak snow depth on record ( 2006 ):  85cmHighest peak snow depth on record ( 1981 ): 361cm

Interesting, of course its only takes one decent dump of snow to get the level from 68 to 85 cms and there is three weeks until the average peak so you would think it is at least even chance to beat it.I have fond memories as a child of the snow in 1981 the record year. First year I really ever skiied and there were cars that appeared to be burried in for the winter under a several metres of snow near Perisher (a few kms from the Spencer's creek site).The following year 1982 was I think the worst recorded at the time, around 90 cms I think. That was dire I remember skiing on mix of snow, grass and gravel with the snow being scrapped onto the runs from the surrounding ground which was bare.

[Styx]

Interesting, of course its only takes one decent dump of snow to get the level from 68 to 85 cms and there is three weeks until the average peak so you would think it is at least even chance to beat it.I have fond memories as a child of the snow in 1981 the record year. First year I really ever skiied and there were cars that appeared to be burried in for the winter under a several metres of snow near Perisher (a few kms from the Spencer's creek site).The following year 1982 was I think the worst recorded at the time, around 90 cms I think. That was dire I remember skiing on mix of snow, grass and gravel with the snow being scrapped onto the runs from the surrounding ground which was bare.

 

Thursday's snow level at 1830m was 53cm, a melt of 15cm in a week. The week ahead starting now sees a forecast further 20-50cm to accumulate - so perhaps the 2006 record is safe.

 

Your story is a good one,  demonstrating  Australian snow conditions are very tempermental. 2006 and 1982 however were strong El Nino years, with little if any precipitation. 2013 is a neutral year and precipitation has not been problematic. Before the winter began, low snowfall was not on the cards. There are certainly some exceptional conditions at play at the moment. The expanse of record SSTs over the Southern Ocean is incredible.

 

Further to The Age article about record July heat, Canberra and Hobart recorded their warmest July's in term of mean temperature aswell, joining Sydney and Melbourne.  

[crikey]

The record warm July record that was beaten was for 1975..

 

1975 was both warm in july and had a relatively por snow season., a la nina year with expected warm SST's around OZ.

Neg IOD

 

Possible this is shaping up for a la Nina year to equal 1975.. We had flooding and lots of rain in October 1975..

 

This warm July in OZ could be symptomatic of a building la nina .

 

Why do l think this

some findings

 

I read a post by STEVE 777 on Weather Zone forum in Australia
He has listed 8 yrs that were quite anomonously warm in a JULY( post 1917 ) at observatory hill Sydney

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthre ... ost1204637
quote
"Today marked a record run of 20+ degree days ending in July at Observatory Hill, i.e. 6. The previous record was 5, which occurred once only, ending 12/7/1928. A run of 4+ has occurred 8 times previously: 1928, 1944, 1964, 1975, 1988, 1994, 2005 and 2011.

So warm July days are becoming more common at that site, probably largely due to increasing heat island. Also, we can probably disregard years before the move of the site in 1917(?). But I don't think it's just that. Winters don't feel as cold as they used too, even though I feel the cold more now than when I was younger"
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I was interested to see the correlation of warm July's in Sydney, with ENSO index
not to criticise Steve's post..
Thanks for the observation STEVE777

Checking those years ( 1928, 1944, 1964, 1975, 1988, 1994, 2005 and 2011).

 

against ENSO rating yields 5 out of 8 of those years yielded official la Nina years

The other 3 years
-two were cool neutral years

and the other one year
went strong El Nino in 1994

So this warm spell of JULY 2013 is only of 100 yr or so records is highly related to the ENSO cool neutral to La nina state by a ratio of 7: 1.
and NOT necessarily and conclusively related to 400ppm of C02 .

There has been no rise in global temps' from 2006 to 2013 ..

 

surface synoptics
We have had an abundance of Northerly winds ..Favoring a warmer profile

SAM / AAO index has been positive. High pressure belt becomes latitudinal wider?

SST spatial patterns in both thePacific ocean and the Indian ocean are likely to be influential here including the IOD dipole in the indian ocean.

We usually have warm SST's around OZ during la nina development

 

The following is a record of what happened in the top warm July months since 1928  in Sydney ( east coast of oz)and closely they relate to the state of ENSO

-------
A brief summary of findings
1928 La nina
A dry la nina
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/index.shtml.
1944 cool neutral
low rainfall
tending cool neutral
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com.au/2010/ ... o-and.html

1964 La Nina
The June to October period was marked by above-average falls across the southern one-third of Australia, particularly about the exposed coast and ranges in the southeast. Record-high July totals were recorded near parts of WA’s southern coast, in a large straddling southeast SA and western Victoria, and across Victoria’s northeast ranges into the Snowy Mountains of NSW. Above-average falls were widespread over Australia in September and October, especially the former when record-high totals were observed over much of central to southeastern SA and the adjacent parts of northwest Victoria and the far west of NSW.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/index.shtml

1975
La nina Average SOI 18.6
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninacomp.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnli ... 197510.gif

1988
strong la ninaAv SOI = 13
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/index.shtml

1994
strong El Nino Av SOI = -14
Juily was neutal but later a strong el nino evolved

2005 Cool neutral
Neutral in July but later tended weak cool neutral
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com.au/2010/ ... o-and.html

2011
La ninahttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/feature/ENSO-feature.shtml

2013 ??
record warm july temps
SOI is positive 8.2 in July
------------
Note: according to long paddock annual rainfall maps these years were not necessarily all wet spatially over OZ but were classified according to ENSO criteria of SOI and SST's
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainf ... p?area=aus

 

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I wonder why this correlation was not noted by the climate dept in Australia.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I

[jamesay]

Very interesting post.  It would appear there are indications of a wet spring in Southern Australia, we shall see. 

 

At the moment more traditional late winters synoptics in place with cool/cold outbreaks , frequent fronts and rain over the last week.  Pretty cool and wet in Melbourne today,  we struggled to reach double figures for much of the day and it felt pretty cold in the strong winds.  However there have been less than a handful of such days this winter and tomorrow it will be milder again.  

 

Towards the end of the month temperatures may start to rise (already are doing so inland Australia) in the South and UV levels are already increasing from their winter lows, which should make the sun feel warmer in any bright spells.  

[SomeLikeItHot]

Thursday's snow level at 1830m was 53cm, a melt of 15cm in a week. The week ahead starting now sees a forecast further 20-50cm to accumulate - so perhaps the 2006 record is safe.

 

Your story is a good one,  demonstrating  Australian snow conditions are very tempermental. 2006 and 1982 however were strong El Nino years, with little if any precipitation. 2013 is a neutral year and precipitation has not been problematic. Before the winter began, low snowfall was not on the cards. There are certainly some exceptional conditions at play at the moment. The expanse of record SSTs over the Southern Ocean is incredible.

 

Further to The Age article about record July heat, Canberra and Hobart recorded their warmest July's in term of mean temperature aswell, joining Sydney and Melbourne.  

 

 I am not doubting its bad although I note its now hit 134cm so  a long way from any record low. There is two factors that drive low snowfalls in Aus, often its just that its cold but there is very little precipitation, which I think was the case in 1982, however it sounds like its more high temperatures that have been driving it this year.

[crikey]

The AAO ( Antartic oscillation) takes a record dive and is off the scale as 16th August! Minus 4 and lower !

 

A pleasant surprise .. As AAO has been horribly positive all year keeping the cold westerly belt from clipping the mainland for the autumn winter period

 

Today a cold front is forecast to clip southern QLD tomorrow .

A nice sized beast with lots of wind.

 

Maybe some winter weather for spring?

 

I am following this record event on my blog/ study space and have started taking notes if your interested

 

http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/antartic-oscillation-ao-finally-plunges-and-westerly-belt-gives-southern-australia-a-lickin/

 

 

More snow for the ski fields. It has generally been fair for many resorts. This strong wave? of negative AAO might give them something to grin about.

[Upgrade]

Indeed , August has been very unsettled and we now have a cold front coming up from the south tomorrow which may lead to snow down to 300-500m in Vic.  

 

Gale force winds have been nearly incessant since Monday in Melbourne, with fast moving fronts but also good sunny spells in between . Just darn windy. 

 

The sun is gaining power again though, hopefully spring will get on it's way soon..

 

 

 

[Styx]

Oh wow...the coldest August morning here since 7 August 1963 @ -0.4C ( 6 below average )...and the coldest temperature for any month since June 2007....the coldest temperature so late into winter since 1926. I love stats like this...

Naturally there is frost and ice everywhere!

Getting increasingly rare to get a sub zero in Hobart too.

 

If the rest of August stays cool, this will be the first month in a 21 month run to be below average mean temperature ( 1981-2010 compasrison ). It would be nice to see the warm nexus finally broke.

Edited August 21, 2013 by Styx

[Styx]

Another very warm season in Australia comes to an end - the third warmest winter on record nationally and the fourth season in a row to either break a record for heat ( summer ) or to come close ( the others ). We now begin springtime with record temperatures across a big swathe of the country - covering most of the centre, south and inland east for the next few days.

 

 

 

Historical perspective:

[crikey]

Hey..Great post STYX.. Thanks for the update..

 

That picture of the warm anomaly is incredible

Interesting the NH has a warming hiatus since 2007..but the SH has not followed suit ..yet?

 

Also interesting to see the signature of rain associated with those much earlier north west infeeds across the interior.

 

There is some moisture trailing in from the Indian ocean currently so lets see if the pattern changes?

 

Notice the medium term GFS models is giving a snow event to Vic/Tas and NSW around the 10th september. SAM has taken a neg' dip lately.

 

I have collected a few of those recent heat records as documented by some of our weather bureau journalists ..

http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-spring-heat-records-for-parts-of-australia-2013/

Edited September 2, 2013 by crikey

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Spring has certainly jump-started in Melbourne after the warmest winter on record with a very warm few days and temperatures 7 degrees above normal for the time of year. 

 

The last few days temps have all been over 20 degrees with a high of 26 forecast tomorrow.   Notable early season warmth for south east australia although the long term models indicate a cooler than normal spring, they are not always accurate.  we shall see!  

 

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/wet-and-windy-but-maybe-our-warmest-winter-yet-20130830-2svto.html

 

 

After 2013's performance so far, who would bet for cool?

 

2013 has seen : 

• [*]Australia’s hottest day on record [*]Australia’s hottest week on record [*]Australia’s hottest month on record [*]Australia’s hottest summer on record [*]Australia’s hottest September to June (10 months) on record
  

Edited September 3, 2013 by Upgrade

[Styx]

Quite a temperature contrast in Australia presently - record early spring heat marches into Queensland from New South Wales and so too does the early season bushfire threat. A short time ago, I notice 38s and 39s were the highest recorded temps on the BOM website for Queensland - in the outer west and the Gulf country, 10C or so above average for the month of September. I noticed the BBC covered the western Sydney fires which happened earlier in the week - 2 homes lost, 7 fire fighters injured...minor burns, smoke inhalation and an unusual case of one being attacked and bitten by a dog.

 

In Tasmania we have a sharp cold outbreak, not unusual for September. Near -7C at elevation ( 1000m ) overnight, close to freezing on the coast, and a few degrees below zero inland. With the cold came some light snow, settling near 100 metres just south of Hobart, but generally near 300m level elsewhere.

 

Courtesy of The Mercury newspaper.

   

[Styx]

Warm spring to stoke early-season fire risks

[*] 

Peter Hannam

Fires threatened Sydney's outskirts on September 10. Photo: Nick Moir

The exceptionally warm start to spring for south-eastern Australia is likely to extend well into October, breaking more records and exacerbating early-season fire risks, according to Weatherzone.

Both Sydney and Melbourne – and much of the nation – are well on course to set record temperatures for September with weather models indicating next month will also be unusually hot, said Weatherzone meteorologist Ben McBurney.

“Our fortnightly models indicate it's going to be a very warm end to September, so it's very likely we're going to see the warmest September on record for Sydney at least,†Mr McBurney said.

Sydney's maximums this month are running at about 23.6 degrees, well above the long-term norm of 20 degrees, and eclipsing the previous record of 23.3 degrees in 1980. The Bureau of Meteorology predicts days will average about 24 degrees over the next week. Minimum temperatures are also well above previous records.

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Melbourne's maximums are running at about 19.5 degrees, just shy of the 2006 record of 19.7 degrees, but the mercury is likely to reach an average of about 21 degrees or more for the next week. “There's a good chance they're also going to break their [september] record as well,†Mr McBurney said.

Central heating

The Bureau of Meteorology said it was possible September would see more monthly records fall.

“The area of most-abnormal warmth has been inland central and eastern Australia,†said Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at the bureau. “A lot of that area has been 4-6 degrees above normal for September to date.â€

Alice Springs is running at about 3 degrees above the previous record for September. "It's just been ridiculous," Mr McBurney said.

Australia's record heat over the past year has surprised climate experts, not least because it has occurred in a period without an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean, the conditions that typically see national temperatures spike.

Outgoing chief climate commissioner Tim Flannery also highlighted the unusual heat and the early start to the fire season around Sydney on Thursday when he disclosed that the new Abbott government had axed the commission.

Dr Flannery said it remains important that the public continues to get “a reliable, apolitical source of facts†on climate change, a task he said was made harder by the commission's demise.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/warm-spring-to-stoke-earlyseason-fire-risks-20130920-2u3vj.html#ixzz2flWy29hf

 

2012 on repeat but more heightened? Amolously clear ckies over central Australia causing heat to build up and extend, no cool influx of air from southern latitudes to cool things down, and no tropical incursions of late...same story of last year which climaxed  Australia's hottest summer on record. Hasn't really cooled down to near normal since.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Styx

[Styx]

September heat has pummelled alpine snow in Australia - after a late start, spring thaw has been dramatic with a 1 metre loss within a month at Spencers Creek measuring station ( 1830m ). At Deep Creek ( 1620m ) it's all gone.

 

 

http://gergs.net/

 

Integral snow depth has trended down in the last 60 years of observations - a shortening season of maximum depth and duration. More than exemplified season 2013.  ( but perhaps October may trick us all and spring a snow surprise ).

Edited September 28, 2013 by Styx

[Coast]

 

High winds and thunderstorms have ripped through Eastern Australia, tearing roofs off buildings, bringing down power lines and trees, and crushing cars. Rescue crews are continuing the clear-up operation after parts of the state were battered by the strongest winds in thirty years.

 

Large numbers of homes were left without power, including 90,000 in Melbourne, while a man died in Sydney after being electrocuted while carrying out repairs on the roof of his house.

 

 

Video here: http://www.itn.co.uk/World/86382/eastern-australia-battered-by-strong-winds-and-thunderstorms

 

 

[Styx]

September was easily the hottest start to Spring on record in Australia. No surprises there! It also ranked as the month with the greatest positive temperature anomoly for all months on record. Very dramatic to see September 2013 head and shoulders above all others:

 

 

...and...3,4,5,even 6 degrees above normal!

 

 

In the past 12-month period a large number of mean temperature records have fallen across Australia including:

• [*]Australia’s warmest month on record (January) [*]Australia’s warmest September on record [*]Australia’s largest positive monthly anomaly on record (September) [*]Australia’s warmest summer on record (December 2012 to February 2013) [*]Australia’s warmest January to September period on record [*]Australia’s warmest 12-month period on record (broken twice, for the periods ending August and September) [*]Indeed, Australia’s warmest period on record for all periods 1 to 18 months long ending September 2013
  

Two significant daily maximum temperature records were also set this year:

• [*]Australia’s hottest summer day on record (7 January) [*]Australia’s warmest winter day on record (31 August) [*]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/

 

Edited October 8, 2013 by Styx

[SomeLikeItHot]

Extraordinarily warm september this year. As much as I like warm weather I think I can give the 40 degree day forecast for early october in Sydney a miss.

[Upgrade]

Looks like 37 degrees in Sydney tomorrow, 35 in Adelaide and the first 30 of the season here in Melbourne. 

 

We had 43 days where the temperature reached 30 degrees last summer  with the first on 4 October 2012 and the last one on 27 March 2013.  

 

We're back into the crazy ups and downs for the next couple of months here in Vic, where it can be 15 one day and 32 the next.

 

It will be a year since i emigrated down under on  1 November,  and i find the weather in Victoria as endlessly fascinating as ever, and just as entertaining as in the UK. 

Edited October 8, 2013 by Upgrade

[Upgrade]

37 in Sydney today............ 

 

Melbourne's at midnight was 24 degrees,  but by 3 this afternoon it was 15 degrees....lol  .

[Summer Sun]

Latest forecast for Sydney shows quite a big drop from Sundays high to Mondays

 

Saturday 26c

 

Sunday 31c

 

Monday 18c

 

Tuesday 22c

 

The BBC did a quick piece on the heat last night after the 10 o'clock news and John Hammond said Alice Springs 42c was almost record breaking given that we are only 6 weeks into spring down under makes you wonder what summer will deliver a hot one last year and that heat hasn't really left with a warm winter and now a hot spell in early spring

[Summer Sun]

Watching dawn break live in Sydney here - http://www.earthcam.com/world/australia/sydney/

[Summer Sun]

Another hot day in Sydney to come today highs around 31c sunny to start but cloud is likely to increase later in the day with some heavy rain possible this evening

 

Monday sees temps dropping to 18c before rising on Tuesday to 20c and 26c by Wednesday

 

Further west its cooler with Melbourne ranging from 13c to 18c by Wednesday it rises to around 24c

[Summer Sun]

Copied from the weather in the general media thread

 

Australia On Alert For Extreme Summer

 

Australians are being warned to brace themselves for an increase in heatwaves, cyclones, severe thunderstorms and ferocious bushfires as the country heads towards summer. Australia has recently sweltered through record breaking weather and meteorologists say they are expecting more records to be broken after the country's hottest 12 months on record, including the hottest ever September, hottest ever day, and second warmest winter. Tom Saunders, senior meteorologist at the Sky News Australia Weather Channel, says: "Through this summer we are expecting another hot one for Australia, above average temperatures throughout the country with at least one or two heatwaves through the southern states. "We are expecting 11 to 14 tropical cyclones off our northern coastline, and we are expecting an above average number of severe thunderstorms for eastern and southern parts of Australia."

 

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures around Australia's coast are partly to blame, adding heat and moisture to the atmosphere. "Our seas have been warming up over the past few decades and even in the past 12 months the sea surface temps off the west coast and south coast of Australia have been the highest on record," says Mr Saunders. Last January, Australia recorded its hottest ever day - hitting a national average of 40.3 degrees Celsius, the hottest place being Oodnadatta in South Australia's far north which reached a blistering 47C. While hot, dry, breezy days might be welcomed by tourists and those living near Australia's beaches, for many living inland such conditions raise the frightening prospect of fierce bushfires.

 

The 2013 bushfire season began early in Australia and firefighters, many of them volunteers in rural areas, are preparing for a dangerous few months ahead. "It's a wake up call to everybody living in bushfire prone areas," says commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons from the New South Wales Rural Fire Service. "We've got a vegetation growth the likes of which we haven't seen for many decades and with the sign ahead for a continuing hot dry period as we lead into summer, it shapes up for a signal to a long hot difficult bushfire season." Many in Australia know the pain such fires can cause. In what became known as 'Black Saturday' in February 2009 as many as 400 blazes killed 173 people, and injured 414.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1153806/australia-on-alert-for-extreme-summer

[Upgrade]

Was a cold one today in Melbourne after a lovely 25 degree day yesterday. Tipped out at 16 this arvo, and only around 13 for much of the day .