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Iceberg

World Politics 2011

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I was going to put something into the world economics thread about the wave of African and Middle east political revolutions but thought that maybe an equivalent politics thread might be a good idea.

Anyway we've had the Jasmine revolution that toppled the Tunisian corrupt government.

Egypt is looking very close to some kind of revolution, whether Mubarak will go is still uncertain and very much depends on what will happen today, reports/rumours are that he might have left the country along with all of his family at least temporarily. The key is whether the army and police believe this, as soon as they do they will very quickly swich sides.

Yemen has various areas of unrest and with an average age in the country of just 17 and 50% povety it's ripe for revolution.

If Egypt falls then Jordon could do as well.

We saw in the Ex Soviet days how quickly these kinds of things spread and generally they are good. However in the middle east it will certaintly add a large amout of uncertainty to everything from Isreal to western terrorism.

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If Egypt falls then Jordon could do as well.

We saw in the Ex Soviet days how quickly these kinds of things spread and generally they are good. However in the middle east it will certaintly add a large amout of uncertainty to everything from Isreal to western terrorism.

Yes, Israel in particular must be feeling nervous.

Lebanon now under control of a pro Iranian Hezbollah government. Meanwhile two of its other neighbours Egypt and maybe Jordan are in/entering a state of political turmoil. I suspect that any future government in these countries might not be as tolerant of Israel as the incumbent leaderships.

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I agree Kiwi, democracy would tend to put power in the likes of the Muslim brotherhood......

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It seems like 100,000's of people are protesting and that Egypt are taking a very hard line, with opponents arrested, western reporters beaten and secret police out on the streets, despite all this the protests are continuing with police stations, local council buildings and army buildings being torched.

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Egypt is the largest arab country…Europe receives the majority of its oil through the Suez Canal. If Mubarak falls, then this can have large repurcussions. Thus far, the protestors have mostly been disillusioned middle-class who perceive no future ahead. The poor are also protesting, but to a far lesser degree. If they do start joining in and the Muslim Brotherhood gets involved – this could have massive repurcussions. Let’s pray that any crazy extremists don’t hijack the process towards democracy and justice. Nice to see El Baradei willing to stand up to the plate.

Btw – I am not describing the main Muslim Brotherood as â€crazy extremistsâ€. Most of them seem to be far more moderate these days than compared to the mentality of the Afghan Mujahideen or the Iranian Guardians Council. However, I am referring to a danger of them being co-opted or even splitting. We shall see.

EDIT - Meanwhile, US Vice President Joseph Stalin Biden has supported Mubarak (no surprise).

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CNBC contributor Erin Burnett said Friday that oil prices would skyrocket if countries in the Middle East broke out from under the rule of brutal dictators.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/cnbc-anchor-implies-support-dictators-cheap-oil/

(In my opinion, even with dictators still in-place - oil will stay in the region of $90 for the rest of the year...and most likely increase if there is a significant demand recovery).

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Egypt is the largest arab country…Europe receives the majority of its oil through the Suez Canal.

Perhaps Britain will send in the paras to secure the canal??! :whistling:

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If we are seeing the destabling of the Middle East then I think we should be very wary indeed. Powder keg springs to mind.

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:bomb:

Done it before, so I'm sure no one will mind!

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Although at the moment there's no Islamic extremist taking advantage it's only a matter of time. Egypt would be a massive prize. However Islamic extremists would make a complete cock up of the country as well so hopefully the people won't be hoodwinked into listening to them.

Hints of US changing position.

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Although at the moment there's no Islamic extremist taking advantage it's only a matter of time. Egypt would be a massive prize. However Islamic extremists would make a complete cock up of the country as well so hopefully the people won't be hoodwinked into listening to them.

Hints of US changing position.

They'll make a cock-up of any country! All these revolutions may turn a bit... dirty... hopefully all will be well soon, but I have a bad feeling. Student revolutions ARE what is needed in many nations, including this one I'm afraid.

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The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change†for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

http://www.telegraph...d-uprising.html

Not sure what to make of this or if its verified (seriously needs investigating further). This could really backfire now that it's leaked.

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I am not sure there is too much in that telegraph article it sounds very unbelivable, but might just be an attempt by the US government to find out whats happening in the egypt youth movement i.e just making friends with an insider.

So far the protesters have brought down the government but not Mr Mubarak who is insisting on carrying on. However in my mind the people of egypt will have tasted blood (both literally and figuratively) and probably won't be happy now until he goes.

The biggest factor of last night was that the military did not attack the protesters and in some cases even seemed to help them. This is a clear indication IMO that the army will not fight the population for Mubarak.

This is not the case concerning Mubaraks 300K secret police who were responsible for all the deaths yesterday. Will the army turn against the secret policy ?

What seems to be circulating is that the US has offered Mubarak safety in the US free from international law however the condition is that he leaves Egypt peacefully.

Personally I think Mubarak will be gone by the end of the weekend.

Democracy and economic liberalisation for Egypt and other middle east countries might seem scary, but in the long term true democracies for these countries are the only way that the middle east will stabilse.

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Interestingly there doesn't seem to be any major spokesman for the opposition which can't be good. Too me that indicates lack of leadership and the likely hood of a split amongst the ranks at a later date and a unstable country.

Some commentators reckon the president will stick it out others he will eventually quit.

Difficult for the West as they have no opposition person to align too.

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Interestingly there doesn't seem to be any major spokesman for the opposition which can't be good. Too me that indicates lack of leadership and the likely hood of a split amongst the ranks at a later date and a unstable country.

Some commentators reckon the president will stick it out others he will eventually quit.

Difficult for the West as they have no opposition person to align too.

If Egyptians want regime change, then nothing will change. The desire for power is the most corrupting thing there is. There is no solution except for people organising their own resilient communities and throwing out the centralised power structure. Power is evil. The world does not need the nation-state anymore

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Although at the moment there's no Islamic extremist taking advantage it's only a matter of time. Egypt would be a massive prize. However Islamic extremists would make a complete cock up of the country as well so hopefully the people won't be hoodwinked into listening to them.

Hints of US changing position.

The Muslim brotherhood would likely win any election if full democracy took hold after any overthrow of Mubarek.

Although they are no Hamas or Hezbollah, I think the prospect would alarm America and Israel enough to intervene.

The tragic irony is that in one scenario we might see America bringing its soldiers home in flag draped coffins as a result of it's own economic policy. If it were not printing dollars like mad, we probably wouldnt be seeing the large bull run on oil and food prices, which is the cause of the troubles in Tunisia and now, Egypt.

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Well the Police have been withdrawn resulting into a much quieter protesting increasing the chances of the present regime surviving. A clever move by Mubarak perhaps followed by another give away to appease the people.

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Seems the military are showing their hand a little more now, with jets and helicopters buzzing low over the square, as well as columns of tanks moving in.

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Having watched the situation for the past few days, both online and on Al Jazeers (SKY 514, excelent coverage) i personally have no doubt that Mubarack will go simply because the army are unwilling to support him (or the protesters).

ElBaradei has arrived at Tahrir Square.

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Is that the guy who no-one in Egypt has heard of and the West would like in place? History repeats it seems.

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Is that the guy who no-one in Egypt has heard of and the West would like in place? History repeats it seems.

Where else did he pop up then previously???

He's been around quite a bit though looking at it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei

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Where else did he pop up then previously???

He's been around quite a bit though looking at it http://en.wikipedia....hamed_ElBaradei

Clearly he is known, but as I stated, not very well known in Egypt. Simply because someone 'might' want to be the President does not mean he is known or popular in the country in question. The only reason we hear his name being touted is because the 'West' know him, and would prefer him to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Like I said. Puppet.

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Clearly he is known, but as I stated, not very well known in Egypt. Simply because someone 'might' want to be the President does not mean he is known or popular in the country in question. The only reason we hear his name being touted is because the 'West' know him, and would prefer him to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Like I said. Puppet.

Err...have you talked to any Egyptians? I doubt you have. The Muslim Brotherhood has approved of him as a potential candidate.

He is well-known, not only in Egypt but in the Arab world. And he's not a puppet either.

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A nightmare scenario....I have no idea what sort of leader Mubarak has been to his people. But I do know he has kept peace with Israel, made Egypt more properous with peace-driven tourism and kept the threat of fanatical Islamists at bay. The loss of the peaceful stability of Egypt and Jordan will unleash a nightmare on the region and the world.

I was going to put something into the world economics thread about the wave of African and Middle east political revolutions but thought that maybe an equivalent politics thread might be a good idea.

Anyway we've had the Jasmine revolution that toppled the Tunisian corrupt government.

Egypt is looking very close to some kind of revolution, whether Mubarak will go is still uncertain and very much depends on what will happen today, reports/rumours are that he might have left the country along with all of his family at least temporarily. The key is whether the army and police believe this, as soon as they do they will very quickly swich sides.

Yemen has various areas of unrest and with an average age in the country of just 17 and 50% povety it's ripe for revolution.

If Egypt falls then Jordon could do as well.

We saw in the Ex Soviet days how quickly these kinds of things spread and generally they are good. However in the middle east it will certaintly add a large amout of uncertainty to everything from Isreal to western terrorism.

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