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Paul Sherman

Virtual Chase Thread 2011

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Late start for this Annual and Popular Thread due to not much happening at the Start of 2011, but it is back and we will use this thread over the next 3 months when risks arise.

So with that in mind will kick things off as we have a pretty decent shout of some Tornadoes and Supercells across Florida for Tomorrow Tuesday 25th January. As is usual in early Season Set-Ups and a Strong La Nina Winter these risks tend to be across Georgia, Alabama and Florida during January and February with Dixie Alley becoming more active from February until April along with Southern Parts of Texas and Louisiana.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1213 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL AND SRN GA...

...FLORIDA/SRN GA/FAR SRN SC...

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING

WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD

OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL GULF OF

MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD APPROACHING CNTRL FLORIDA

TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP

ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE DAY WITH CONVECTION

GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET

MOVES TOWARD CNTRL FL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE AIRMASS ACROSS

THE FL PENINSULA WILL MOISTEN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ETA-KF CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF FORECAST

SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL FL BY LATE AFTERNOON INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO

THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. IN

ADDITION TO ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THE WIND SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...DEFINITELY SUPPORTIVE OF

SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE

QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ON WHETHER STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. IF

THE STORMS TEND BE LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE PRIMARY

THREAT. THE SCENARIO DEFINITELY LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR AN UPGRADE TO

SLIGHT RISK.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GA AND SC COAST...THE POTENTIAL

FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW

APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL FORECASTS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER

HANDLE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWER AND

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR OFF THE COAST

OF SC SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

FOR THIS REASON...THE LOW-END PROBABILITIES EXTEND ACROSS SRN GA BUT

NOT INTO ERN SC.

..BROYLES.. 01/24/2011

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I'll try to follow this event though I'm away on a course at the moment so net access may be limited :/. It's somewhat similar to last weeks storms which underperformed, but that failed to realise the expected CAPE values and resulted on only 1 brief spinup. Shear is much stronger here also. Very typical of an early year florida outbreak which are often quite common in La Nina years... If I have net access tonight at my hotel I'll have a proper look.

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Since I am not coming on he chase this will be the closest I can get! :) can't wait.

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I certainly need to get a bit of practice in before this May. I have had a go guessing the action zones over the last few years but am a complete novice in reality. I would like a pointer to the charts that you and Nick use, please Paul. Cheers

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Hi Ed

Have about 20 different links to various sites but this one is also very good from the SPC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

And the Models

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Obviously it also helps with knowing your local terrain and distances involved it getting to target locations and what road options you have, but that comes with time

Also for instance if you look at the GFS 36hr ahead it shows this

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_0_prec_36.gif

Paul S

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Hi Ed

Have about 20 different links to various sites but this one is also very good from the SPC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

And the Models

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Obviously it also helps with knowing your local terrain and distances involved it getting to target locations and what road options you have, but that comes with time

Paul S

Thanks Paul.

I have to say that I do know pretty much every link for the SPC as I have been monitoring the last few years chases. What I am looking forward to in particular are charts that are showing moisture contents aligned to heat and wind shear. I need a better understanding of these so that I will be able to have a go myself at forecasting for example where the cap will be broken just ahead of a dry line. No doubt if I spend a little time getting to grips with all this stuff then a death ridge is bound to happen!!!

Ed

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Both of those will be shown better when we are out there. As you know at this stage (12 Noon The Day B4 the Chase Day for Example) we are only getting data from GFS & UKMET, CAP Strength & Dp's and probable Drylines will be shown better within 12 Hours (Eg the morning of the Chase) when we switch over to the RUC & NAM Models. We can also show you quite a lot on the Barons System which shows fronts data as well as where the Dryline is from Surface Ob's on the day. It is pretty easy to see on the Baron with Dp's of say 66f in Western Oklahoma and 28f on the New Mexico / Texas Border about 150 Miles further West, you can literally see the Dryline advancing East and obviously if sharp enough that will be the focus for Storm development.

Paul S

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Loving the sub heading for this thread Paul :)

I love the Barons it really helps put all the pieces of info together.

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woooooo! I can almost feel those 70f dews from here :D

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now this is what im talking about :D

thanks to the virtual chase last year I watched nearly all over this at some point during the evening.

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MD issued :

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1219 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251819Z - 251915Z

SETUP APPEARS TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG

WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL.

A WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO

MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SLOWLY-MOVING

WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR KCTY TO NEAR KJAX. THE FRONT

SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH LATE TODAY...WHILE

NE-SW ORIENTED QLCS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WNW OF KTPA...

CONTINUES E AT 40-45 KTS.

AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO 40+ KT

WSWLY AT 500 MB. OVERALL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY SHOULD INCREASE...AND

CURRENT WEAKNESS IN OBSERVED FLOW AROUND 700 MB SHOULD DIMINISH...AS

UPR IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE /AREA PW AROUND

1.25 INCHES/...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED

SUPERCELLS/SMALL LEWPS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS QLCS

CONTINUES EWD. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT

OF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF QLCS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN

FL...WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SEA

BREEZE FRONT. SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW IN THIS REGION MAY

LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVE.

..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2011

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0044.html

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And now a tornado watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

210 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL

900 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

AVON PARK FLORIDA TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE NERN GULF WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE INTO AN

INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AIR MASS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE

SUPERCELLS. MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO AOA 500 J/KG ALONG WITH STEADILY

IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND

SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL SEVERE INCLUDING ISOLATED

TORNADOES WITH THE SQUALL LINE...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION IS NOW

DEVELOPING IN WCENTRAL FL AND WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO LOW

TOPPED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS

CENTRAL AND NERN FL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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Now a tornado warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL

530 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

FLC057-252245-

/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110125T2245Z/

HILLSBOROUGH FL-

530 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EST FOR CENTRAL

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

AT 522 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. LOCATED NEAR MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE...OR 10

MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

GIBSONTON.

RIVERVIEW.

BOYETTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN

A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT

SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND

COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF

YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS

INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING

FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2795 8253 2804 8223 2777 8216 2774 8248

2782 8239 2789 8241 2792 8247 2782 8247

2782 8253

TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 263DEG 41KT 2783 8235

tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

543 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

FLC069-095-127-252315-

/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110125T2315Z/

ORANGE-LAKE-VOLUSIA-

543 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EST FOR WEST

CENTRAL VOLUSIA...LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST

SHORE OF LAKE APOPKA AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

ZELLWOOD AND ROCK SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS

THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY

ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE

LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO

NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING

FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8172 2897 8166 2905 8166 2906 8164

2922 8165 2928 8163 2892 8130 2885 8135

2887 8136 2883 8141 2877 8141 2833 8173

2833 8175 2838 8189

TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 180DEG 0KT 2839 8169

$$

15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING

FLC035-252330-

/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0005.110125T2243Z-110125T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

543 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 630 PM EST

* AT 542 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 23

MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUNNELL...OR NEAR PIERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

BUNNELL AND FLAGLER BEACH...AND RURAL AREAS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 305

AND 304...AND ALONG HIGHWAY 11 SOUTH OF BUNNELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST

DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR

HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER

YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.I

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY

OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING

FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2941 8115 2926 8114 2926 8115 2926 8141

2930 8142 2939 8142 2958 8116 2956 8115

2945 8110 2943 8110

TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 232DEG 31KT 2925 8146

$$

ENYEDI

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look this lot plenty of tornado warning boxes tonight

post-9919-0-29649600-1295997938_thumb.pn

just added a zoomed in wind speed plenty of sheer and several Tornado signatures (the upside down purple triangles)

post-9919-0-98346500-1295998421_thumb.pn

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live cam on a Florida storm http://www.chasertv....-dombrowski.php

sorry a few minutes after posting the above link there was lightning flash and cam stopped i presume a power outage or the streamer decided to shut his pc down as he was streaming from his home

now across to the west coast this TVS is to the east of Orlando

post-9919-0-58560500-1295999704_thumb.pn

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Tornado number 2 of the year

2315 4 WNW MYAKKA HEAD MANATEE FL 2750 8214 PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 64 AND WINGATE ROAD. NO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS TIME. (TBW)

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Posted · Hidden by user700, April 27, 2011 - No reason given
Hidden by user700, April 27, 2011 - No reason given

Hi I was watching twister outbreak yesterday, because it’s a La Niña this year its linked to more tornados which is good for people going storm chasing this year.

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You going to be watching the Live Feeds this year Danny ?

We are going to have a Cradlepoint this year which means the 2 Servers can roam if 1 drops out, hopefully this will not give us any issues like last year when it had to be manually reset and it should automatically roam and re-connect easier.

Paul S

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Posted · Hidden by user700, April 27, 2011 - No reason given
Hidden by user700, April 27, 2011 - No reason given

You going to be watching the Live Feeds this year Danny ?

We are going to have a Cradlepoint this year which means the 2 Servers can roam if 1 drops out, hopefully this will not give us any issues like last year when it had to be manually reset and it should automatically roam and re-connect easier.

Paul S

Yes I will be watching. Great 2 servers this year :good:

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SPC have a slight risk for SE Texas later today. Saturday night is a good night for a virtual chase. Although they don't mention a tornado risk, and only have a 2% risk on the map.

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SPC have a slight risk for SE Texas later today. Saturday night is a good night for a virtual chase. Although they don't mention a tornado risk, and only have a 2% risk on the map.

nice something to watch at last...

:clap:

not long now...

90 days for some...reality chasing :smiliz19:

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ALABAMA

THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL

800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF

EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT

MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SE LA AND

SRN MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING SW AL AROUND 23Z. OTHER

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE FROM SE LA INTO SE

MS ALONG THE LLJ AND MOIST AXIS. A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM LIX

SHOWED THAT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY IS STILL BASED JUST ABOVE THE

SURFACE...BUT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF

DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE

CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES NOW OBSERVED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

...THOMPSON

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