February CET

[Milhouse]

I have a feeling this could be one of the mildest Febs on record. This point is largely based on the trending of the GFS ensembles over the last few days; They hint at cold at 192hrs, only to remove it, and replace with SW'rlys; Classic signal for consistantly mild weather.

This, and the fact that Dec's very very cold month has to be cancelled out - But this is more of a spiritual ying and yang stand point.

I am currently thinking the finishing mark will be above 6.3oc.

Paul

I wont go as high as 6.3c but with the ensemble mean trending average or slightly above i really cant see any significant fall in the CET. Remember also theres only 28 days this month so less time available for a fall to occurr. Plus there are signs of a return of the Atlantic for the final part of the month after a colder interlude. I'd say a finishing point of 5.0c would be a realistic prediction at this stage.

[Optimus Prime]

No chance of it being the mildest February on record but highly likely to finish above 5.0c minimum. Possibly as high as mid 7cs. Even if it finished off at 7.9c the winter would be similar to 2008/2009.

[reef]

Hadley on 7.3C to the 9th. Yesterday came in at 5.5C.

Today's min is down as 6.4C, so a rise possible tomorrow.

Values required for the following final CETs during the last 19 days:

2.0C: -0.5

2.5C: 0.2

3.0C: 1.0

3.5C: 1.7

4.0C: 2.4

4.2C: 2.7

4.5C: 3.2

5.0C: 3.9

5.5C: 4.6

6.0C: 5.4

6.5C: 6.1

7.0C: 6.8

7.5C: 7.6

8.0C: 8.3

[TonyH]

Looking like a mild one, given the cold spell next week is not so cold and should be short-lived.

[summer blizzard]

Hadley on 7.3C to the 9th. Yesterday came in at 5.5C.

Today's min is down as 6.4C, so a rise possible tomorrow.

Values required for the following final CETs during the last 19 days:

2.0C: -0.5

2.5C: 0.2

3.0C: 1.0

3.5C: 1.7

4.0C: 2.4

4.2C: 2.7

4.5C: 3.2

5.0C: 3.9

5.5C: 4.6

6.0C: 5.4

6.5C: 6.1

7.0C: 6.8

7.5C: 7.6

8.0C: 8.3

Looking at that, i am even more confident of what i said yesterday. Floor is 3C, upper limit is 5C.

While the cold spell has been toned down a lot the models now take us to 240 hours out and even the ECWMF would average the 10th-20th period around 3C. I cannot see the rest of the month being above average overall, though neither does it look exeptionally cold.

[Snowstorm1]

So far glad I upped my prediction to 3.5c so far doesnt seem a bad call based on that table reef

[BornFromTheVoid]

7.4C to the 10th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.9C. Minimum for today is 6.2C and maxima look like being around so an increase to 7.5C is quite likely by tomorrows update.

Going by the 06z GFS it looks like we'll be at

7.6C to the 12th

7.2C to the 14th

6.7C to the 16th

6.7C to the 18th.

Above average looking very likely now, the only thing that might prevent it is if the easterly that's been forecast (for what seems like weeks now) finally materialises, otherwise, I'd say no lower than 4.5C.

[Milhouse]

the ECM and GFS both bring the Atlantic back for the final 11 days of the month so i would say below average is now impossible. I suspect we will fall to around 6-6.5c to the 17th and remain fairly static for the rest of the month.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at that, i am even more confident of what i said yesterday. Floor is 3C, upper limit is 5C.

I'm inclined to suggest "floor 5C, upper limit 7C" unless we see another backtrack from the models! If we can't get an easterly we are going to need to rely on average to cold zonal weather to get to my prediction of 5.2C.

[J10]

Looks my 4.0c guess is going to be well under the final outcome.

[The watcher]

Even my 4.6c looks like it'll be a degree too low.

[Scorcher]

I think a lot of people may be underestimating the potential of this month to end up very mild indeed. Next week's 'cold' spell now only looks like a brief cooler interlude, with mild temperatures returning at the end of the week. No sign of any really cold conditions- I'd be surprised if the CET ends up below 6C.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Scorcher

[snowray]

If recent runs from GFS in particular are to be believed then there is a very good chance of us ending up above 7c, with a displaced Azores HP over the Southern half of the UK after next weeks mini cold blip, dragging up some pretty impressive uppers and daytime temps of 14c for a few days, maybe see the odd 15c, or even 16c with cooler temps at night of 4-6c but no frosts until the very end of the month likely.

ECM is a joke at the moment but shows what could happen with the potential Easterly, probably down to a very generous 10% chance for the ECM to be nearer the mark now with its wildly inconsistant output.

So perfect conditions possibly to start getting out and about, bit of gardening, we shall see.

What is the record for February warmth I wonder?

Edited February 12, 2011 by snowray

[Scorcher]

This month has been quite remarkable so far in Cheltenham, with only 2 days in the month failing to reach 10C and 9C was reached on both of those days. There has been one air frost, and even on that day the temperature rose to 10C by the afternoon. We've seen 12C on 4 occasions, 14C once (yesterday) and 4 nights when minimum temperatures didn't drop below 10C.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Scorcher

[Thundery wintry showers]

The warmest February on record for the CET was 1779 with 7.9C. The warmest Februarys of the last century occurred in 1990 and 1998 which had CETs of 7.3 in the Hadley series. However, at a regional level February 1998 was probably the warmest of the last 350 years in Scotland and parts of northern England, where cloud cover held the minima up, while further south it was a very sunny month resulting in some colder nights.

[Stationary Front]

Well, a CET of 7.4 would take us from the coldest recorded CET for December in living memory, to the warmest February CET in living memory, all in the space of a couple of months!

[Isolated Frost]

I expect 6.2C currently; a la 1877.

[TonyH]

If recent runs from GFS in particular are to be believed then there is a very good chance of us ending up above 7c, with a displaced Azores HP over the Southern half of the UK after next weeks mini cold blip, dragging up some pretty impressive uppers and daytime temps of 14c for a few days, maybe see the odd 15c, or even 16c with cooler temps at night of 4-6c but no frosts until the very end of the month likely.

ECM is a joke at the moment but shows what could happen with the potential Easterly, probably down to a very generous 10% chance for the ECM to be nearer the mark now with its wildly inconsistant output.

So perfect conditions possibly to start getting out and about, bit of gardening, we shall see.

What is the record for February warmth I wonder?

It reached a very Springlike 18c in the Midlands in 1998, and just 2 or 3 of years ago almost as warm here in west wales, with stunningly sunny very mild conditions for a week.

[VillagePlank]

Village Plank, can you please predict to 1dp?

Aah - can't remember what my guess was, can you truncate any excess digits, please?

[damianslaw]

Have to say the odds of a colder than average CET being recorded are preety low. Not sure where we will end up but probably 5 degrees is the lowest possible figure we can expect, with somewhere closer to the 6 degree mark a safer bet - a long way to go yet...

Dec 2010 will really stand out against Jan and Feb 11 as a major anomaly indeed. It is very unusual to see such a difference between Dec and Feb - and you would expect such values to be the other way around.

This month so far has been very mild due to almost persistant cloud cover at night preventing any real cooling and also the abundant tropical maritime air - we have not has a single dose of polar maritime air yet - although come Monday-Wednesday the northern half of the country will at long last be under some polar air which should bring temps down to average if not a bit below but not enough to make a real dent in CET values especially as the south will only be on the fringes of the polar air.

I wouldn't be surprised to see March end up reporting a colder CET value than Feb. Indeed temps so far this month are more what you would expect in April nevermind March. Equally this month could end up looking very odd against what March and April may have to offer...

[summer blizzard]

Aah - can't remember what my guess was, can you truncate any excess digits, please?

It was 4.75C i think. It is in Jackones hands now.

In regards to the CET the models have swung towards the easterly again which makes below average just about a possibility.

[North-Easterly Blast]

There was an exceptional run of mild Februarys a decade or so ago, 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2002 all recorded CETs well over 6*C, and from 1997 to 2002 only 2001 was anywhere near the average. To get four very mild Febs (6*C+) over six years is truly exceptional. Go back further and 1995 was also a very mild Feb too. The absence of cold Februarys has certainly been a factor of recent times, we went 14 years from 1996 to 2010 without recording anything significant of a colder than average February. In actual fact 14 years without a sub 3.5 February is a record.

[Weather-history]

There was an exceptional run of mild Februarys a decade or so ago, 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2002 all recorded CETs well over 6*C, and from 1997 to 2002 only 2001 was anywhere near the average. To get four very mild Febs (6*C+) over six years is truly exceptional.

Not as exceptional as you think, there were 5 in 6 years in the 19th century

Feb 1867: 6.9

Feb 1868: 6.3

Feb 1869: 7.5

Feb 1871: 6.1

Feb 1872: 6.9

[summer blizzard]

There was an exceptional run of mild Februarys a decade or so ago, 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2002 all recorded CETs well over 6*C, and from 1997 to 2002 only 2001 was anywhere near the average. To get four very mild Febs (6*C+) over six years is truly exceptional. Go back further and 1995 was also a very mild Feb too. The absence of cold Februarys has certainly been a factor of recent times, we went 14 years from 1996 to 2010 without recording anything significant of a colder than average February. In actual fact 14 years without a sub 3.5 February is a record.

While 14 years may indeed be a record, we did see significantly below average halves to February in 2005, 2006 and 2009. Two weeks earlier and we would have had three sub 3C Februarys in a row.

What do we need to average to get to 3.9C?

[Scorcher]

I wouldn't be surprised to see March end up reporting a colder CET value than Feb. Indeed temps so far this month are more what you would expect in April nevermind March. Equally this month could end up looking very odd against what March and April may have to offer...

And it may not! Just because this month looks likely to end up mild doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be warmer than March, unless you've got a crystal ball that is.