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CatchMyDrift

Alba (Scotland) - Getting Colder Again Spell 23

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Down the Tay and the Earn with all our lovely snow. :help:

I've heard the River Almond has burst it's banks a few hours ago, plus the burn at Lochty as gone also. I saw a picture of the River Almondbank taken this afternoon and OMG I've never seen it that high :(

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It's Windy Millers oot there just now ! http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ up to Beaufort 7.

Quality pic of the Jet on this satellite http://www.opentopia...ghtmaprect.html

+'d yer post in the MT. Keep on fighting for the kilted thread in there. You and LSS are our bastions :good:

For a moment this afternoon I was almost going to go in myself all guns blazing with a target in mind....

But luckily, CMD confirmed my wee angel on the shoulder's opinion to chill out and leave it ( wee Devil on the other shoulder funnily enough agreed also on this tonight, suggesting a cold beer would work better.....):D

As for the weather - Really all in the air in a big way beyond the end of next week - lots of variance between the 'main' models (..ECM and GFS) means the faxes are probably the best bet as they are at least partly human and only really test FI with a just few toes in the water.

Let's hope that in the next few days we continue to get colder and things become clearer about whether we'll get another big freeze. Mild zonal bartlett machine certainly remains in the garage for major repairs (touch wood please), but in the end we're sticking out into a warmish ocean as a wee landmass so we've got to take what we get snow-wise and be happy :drinks:

I've heard the River Almond has burst it's banks a few hours ago, plus the burn at Lochty as gone also. I saw a picture of the River Almondbank taken this afternoon and OMG I've never seen it that high :(

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-12198790

Is looking problematic for some areas.....

Rained here all day, but thankfully I live on the side of a decent sized hill...

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O an t-uisge is a' ghaoth!

When will it stop raining? Been going for a good 24 hours now, plenty of flooding on the roads around Fife today - not that unusual though, a light shower normal sets them off.

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Cheers SS - its interesting as the offending posts and other general troll activity in the model thread serves no purpose - not just from the annoying angle but for interpretation.

If anything it will confuse newer readers who cannot get a handle on things, which doesn't help when at this moment the experienced guys cannot get a handle on things.

MJO phase 1 seems to have been over the last 2 winters our best shot at cold - as I am still getting a handle on this one and I am no an expert I guess the extreme FI will begin to hype up some cold shots.It progresses through phases 7-8 quickly to be right on cue to usher in cold at the start of Feb. My untrained observations watched convection have a 4 day lag time to disruption up North last winter, so i think once we reach phase one the chances of some PV action are again imminent, the chart below is last 3 months and you can see where the MJO is prior to Novembers onslaught of Winter.

post-7292-0-73404400-1295137393_thumb.gi

The HP is certain, it ends the atlantic flow - I hope for clear crisp blue skies because that gives us our cold pool prior to marginal uppers creeping about around what was the 20th and now the 19th.

Am looking forward to tomorrow 12z IMO the colder of the runs this season. But in summary - no over riding Atlantic forever and a day or for rest of winter, its come back has produced some great charts and sat images though, certainly an impressive reminder of its capability. Different conditions in this half of the country always..

Edit - posting correct chart, have a +1 back and too many beers is sometimes good ha ha

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Who turned the tap on? And left it running? <_<

Wot tap? :p

0.4mm here yesterday...

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I just realised that the thread from November is not archived and has therefore disappeared, so we won't be able to look back at all the chat from that amazing spellcray.gif

If we can somehow back up the 6th December thread that would be useful as it too is about to get eaten by the forum. I have to say this irritates me somewhat, as when the threads were in the main body of the forum they were locked safely in the archive so we could look back nostalgically when we wanted to. It appears we won't be able to do that with the November spell.

Wot tap? :p

0.4mm here yesterday...

23mm here and counting. The radar is showing some parts of the Southern Highlands to have had around 100mm of rainfall in the last 24 hours.

I have to reiterate what a strange thing I think it is that not one of the regional threads is going in the archive. There's just something which feels instinctively wrong about it, and I can't think it would be a conscious decision from the moderators not to archive them.

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I just realised that the thread from November is not archived and has therefore disappeared, so we won't be able to look back at all the chat from that amazing spellcray.gif

If we can somehow back up the 6th December thread that would be useful as it too is about to get eaten by the forum. I have to say this irritates me somewhat, as when the threads were in the main body of the forum they were locked safely in the archive so we could look back nostalgically when we wanted to. It appears we won't be able to do that with the November spell.

23mm here and counting. The radar is showing some parts of the Southern Highlands to have had around 100mm of rainfall in the last 24 hours.

I have to reiterate what a strange thing I think it is that not one of the regional threads is going in the archive. There's just something which feels instinctively wrong about it, and I can't think it would be a conscious decision from the moderators not to archive them.

Agreed LS. I'm a clinical trial data manager in "real life" and would get my backside severely kicked for any data loss. We record both quantitative (patient scores) and qualitative (patient interview) data for different purposes. In this case the loss of qualitative forum data for November is regrettable given the uniqueness of the event and with lots to be learned from it.

I wouldn't care to tell NetWeather how they should archive data, but when its gone its gone, and thats a big pity in this case. :(

Edit: Edinburgh Airport hasn't dropped below 10C in over 24 hours now, and like many I'm enjoying the novelty.

As long as it remains that, a novelty !

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SEPA saying flood embankment failure likely at Dalguise , so looks like flooding is going to occur up that way :o

The Tay at Ballathie is currently at 5.2m , miles above its base level of 0.4m.

http://www.sepa.org....a.aspx?id=14937

5 severe flood warnings still in force

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Wind gusting now with heavy passing showers. Current temps 9C.

Still a great deal of uncertainty what happens after the 20th..... Nothing wildly exciting in the offing according to the MetO.:nonono:

I suppose we should be happy with bright days and frosty nights.<_<

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Think we might have to be happy with that - there's even a Bartlett knocking about in GFS FI this morning :wallbash:

Come on 12z you know you want to play ball..

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Looking at some of the guff that is archived, our rantings and exclamations look rather sane and interesting. Ok, maybe sane is stretching it.

After a chilly few days with hill snow, it doesn't look too wintry does it?

Think I'll get back to planning my veg garden.

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Think we might have to be happy with that - there's even a Bartlett knocking about in GFS FI this morning :wallbash:

Come on 12z you know you want to play ball..

Am I right in saying the 6Z's nearly always tend to show milder synoptics.....maybe its my imagination!! I don't tend to take to much notice of those :unsure:

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River Dee running very high this morning.. the river bank path runs along the top of an embankment at this point along between the tree & the fence. There is a path to the river currently underwater bottom left of this shot. The B&W shot is same tree by the river when it was a little above normal in the summer.

post-5343-0-01986900-1295179769_thumb.jp

post-5343-0-09201500-1295179821_thumb.jp

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Rail line up there was shut yesterday afternoon because of this. Think they were having to let water out of the dam at Pitlochry.

SEPA saying flood embankment failure likely at Dalguise , so looks like flooding is going to occur up that way :o

The Tay at Ballathie is currently at 5.2m , miles above its base level of 0.4m.

http://www.sepa.org....a.aspx?id=14937

5 severe flood warnings still in force

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Very strong winds here this morning, but no rain as yet. Temp has finally dipped below 10C to 9C....

Wait that's the rain now on.cc_confused.gif

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Just back from the in-laws, who are staying in today ... because "its freezing out there". :unknw:

Now I have no wish to denigrate our older fellow citizens - and there may well be evidence that the older you get, the more you feel the cold (they're in their mid-sixties).

...even so we've just had our warmest 24-48 hours since early November !

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Just back from the in-laws, who are staying in today ... because "its freezing out there". :unknw:

Now I have no wish to denigrate our older fellow citizens - and there may well be evidence that the older you get, the more you feel the cold (they're in their mid-sixties).

...even so we've just had our warmest 24-48 hours since early November !

I was out there earlier taking photos by the river and that strong wind is perishing cold.

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HP dominating the GFS 12z run, nothing exciting to note up to +168 ! ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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I was out there earlier taking photos by the river and that strong wind is perishing cold.

Indeed LP. I can't deny that a strong wind plays a big part in the sensation of cold, regardless of the actual ambient temperature.

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Just back from the in-laws, who are staying in today ... because "its freezing out there". :unknw:

Now I have no wish to denigrate our older fellow citizens - and there may well be evidence that the older you get, the more you feel the cold (they're in their mid-sixties).

...even so we've just had our warmest 24-48 hours since early November !

So am I, well almost. That's not old these days! Cheeky monkey!!!:girl_devil:

I love the snow and cold!:p

I was out there earlier taking photos by the river and that strong wind is perishing cold.

I am sure the wind chill factor will play a big part and will be even more noticeable come tuesday!

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