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Jason T

Winter 2010 Is It Just Like 1947?

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Found this article,it is quite an intense read and long so i have pulled some paragraphs out to start a topic. What is interesting is the comparison,s but im sure ALL with a varied valid opinion so lets see what happens.

January

The winter began with two periods of cold weather in December 1946 and January 1947 but the coldest period did not begin until 21 January 1947. The main cause of the cold weather was an anti-cyclone which sat over Scandinavia from 20 January. This area of high pressure blocked the progression of low pressure depressions across the Atlantic Ocean and forced them to the south of the United Kingdom resulting in strong easterly winds. These easterlies brought snow to Eastern and South Eastern England before progressing across the entire country. This cold spell continued and by 30 January the Isles of Scilly were under 7 inches (18 cm) of snow and the overnight temperature at Writtle, Essex was -20 °C. Over January the highest recorded temperature in England and Wales was 14 °C and the minimum was -21 °C.[4]

February

Low pressure over the UK on 3 FebruaryThe easterly winds continued into February which developed into one of the coldest months on record. At Kew Observatory there was no recorded temperature above 5 °C for the entire month and only twice was the overnight temperature above 0 °C. Nationally, levels of sun recorded were less than half the average and no sun at all was recorded at Kew for twenty days from 2 February.[4] On 20 February the ferry service across the English Channel between Dover and Ostend was suspended due to the presence of pack ice off the Belgian coast.[5] In some places snow fell on 26 days out of 28 in the month and a temperature of -21 °C was recorded at Woburn, Bedfordshire on 25 February.[4] As a result, railways were badly affected by drifts of light and powdery snow and 300 main roads were made unusable.[4][6] In addition, several hundred villages were cut off.[7] Ice floes were also seen off the coast of East Anglia which caused a hazard to shipping.[6]

Milder air moving over the UK on 10 MarchOn 4–5 March came heavy snow which left drifts across much of the country with some lying 7 metres (23 ft) deep in the Scottish Highlands.[4] On 5 March one of the worst British blizzards of the 20th century occurred.[5] Food supplies were again affected by the snow-bound roads and in some places the police requested permission to break into delivery lorries stranded by the snow.[5] On 10 March milder air of 7–10 °C moved across the country from the south west, causing a rapid thaw of the snow lying on the ground.[4] After such a long period of frost the ground remained frozen, causing large amounts of surface run off which resulted in widespread flooding. March 15 saw a deepening depression move in from the Atlantic, bringing heavy rain and gales.[4] It was the start of the wettest March for 300 years.[8] By the 16 March winds reached 50 knots, gusting to 90 knots, causing breaches in dykes in East Anglia resulting in the flooding of 100 square miles of land.[4][5] The River Thames and the River Lea flooded in London causing the Windsor borough engineer Geoffrey Baker to remark "We could only cope if we had a spare Thames, or two".[7]

On 18 March the River Trent, swollen with the extra water which was prevented from emptying into the sea by a spring tide, burst its banks at Nottingham, reaching first floor height.[4] The flooding subsided in the west of the country by 20 March but rivers in the east were still rising and the Wharfe, Derwent, Aire and Ouse all burst their banks in the West Riding of Yorkshire.[4] Selby was also badly affected with 70% of houses being flooded. More than 100,000 properties were affected by the flooding.

Here is a copy link to read in full ...www.jimmurphymp.com/news.aspx?i_PageID=209979

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How is this in any way similar? December 1946, while on the cool side of the current seasonal average, had a CET of 3.1C. This December's CET was 3.8C lower than that, with the only real cold in December 1946 coming from blocking close to or just to the east of the UK, and even that was fairly shortlived http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1946/Rslp19461216.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1946/Rslp19461221.gif

Compare that to last month, when virtually all of the blocking was to the north/northwest of the UK http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101207.gif even the less cold spell mid-month http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101212.gif

and then this http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101219.gif

I suppose comparing the middle of January of each winter produces a degree of similarity http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470116.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.png

but then again there are so many winters which have similar synoptics to that mid-month.

I'm afraid it's incredibly disingenous to the depth of cold last month to suggest that this could seem relatively tame compared to late winter and I'm not entirely sure what you're basing your forecast for an intensely cold late winter on. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen just that there is no reason to believe that February will even be as cold as the 2nd coldest December in the CET series, never mind colder than it by a few degrees.

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